Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko[4]. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤ 24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%.      

Laser Hardening of Metals

The first experiments on hardening metals by laserpeening induced residual compressive stress in the sur-face of metals for improving their resistance to cracking,stress corrosion and fatigue took place more than 30years ago. However, only today, with the development ofhigh-intensity pulse repetitive rate lasers, this methodstarts to compete to traditional peening, which use influ-ence of small metal balls.Laser peening uses pulses with high intensity 109￣1010 W/cm2 [1]. The laser energy abso…     

一次性使用/空间运输系统火箭轨道转移级的液体推进技术

分析用于各种上面级的轨道转移飞行器(OTV)最佳液体推进设计方案,研究了17.7—26t低地球轨道(LEO)级运载火箭有效载荷级用的高/低压地面可贮存推进系统技术及高性能、低推力低温推进方案.以LEO高度100nmile、比冲340s、质量比0.90为基本标准,通过计算给出质量比在0.88—0.92及比冲在320—500s范围内的性能     

部分可观Petri网故障的量子贝叶斯诊断

针对故障本身构建量子贝叶斯Petri网模型算法，并利用该子网模型进行Petri网系统故障分析。对于部分可观Petri网模型中的不可观故障，根据可达标识图分析变迁点火路径不能判断系统状态，建立量子贝叶斯子网模型，通过不确定路径引起的量子干涉重新标定变迁的条件概率表得到量子概率振幅表。根据故障变迁的前置集合并结合量子贝叶斯推理计算变迁触发的先验概率，由后置集合中的可观变迁修正后验概率，由最大后验概率估计系统所处状态，当故障变迁不唯一时，选取最大概率的故障作为故障源。以实际故障系统建立部分可观Petri网模型，结合可观标签概率序列信息和量子贝叶斯概率估计，对系统不可观部分进行故障诊断验证算法的有效性。