| Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind |
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| 作者姓名： | V.G.Eselevich M.V.Eselevich |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics，Siberian Branch，Russian Academy of Sciences，Irkutsk 664033，Russia，Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics，Siberian Branch，Russian Academy of Sciences，Irkutsk 664033，Russia |
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| 基金项目： | Supported by the China-Russia Joint Research Center on Space Weather
Chinese Academy of Sciences |
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| 摘 要： | When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%.
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳风 磁场 太阳活动 SW BOMT |
Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind |
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| V.G.Eselevich,M.V.Eselevich.Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind[J].Chinese Journal of Space Science,2005,25(5):374-382. |
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| Authors: | V G Eselevich MV Eselevich |
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| Institution: | Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk 664033, Russia |
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| Abstract: | When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko4]. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤ 24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%. |
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| Keywords: | Solar sources Solar wind Streams Magnetic field |
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