On the effect of considering more realistic particle shape and mass parameters in MMOD risk assessments

One of the primary mission risks tracked in the development of all spacecraft is that due to micro-meteoroids and orbital debris (MMOD). Both types of particles, especially those larger than 0.1 mm in diameter, contain sufficient kinetic energy due to their combined mass and velocities to cause serious damage to crew members and spacecraft. The process used to assess MMOD risk consists of three elements: environment, damage prediction, and damage tolerance. Orbital debris risk assessments for the Orion vehicle, as well as the Shuttle, Space Station and other satellites use ballistic limit equations (BLEs) that have been developed using high speed impact test data and results from numerical simulations that have used spherical projectiles. However, spheres are not expected to be a common shape for orbital debris; rather, orbital debris fragments might be better represented by other regular or irregular solids. In this paper we examine the general construction of NASA’s current orbital debris (OD) model, explore the potential variations in orbital debris mass and shape that are possible when using particle characteristic length to define particle size (instead of assuming spherical particles), and, considering specifically the Orion vehicle, perform an orbital debris risk sensitivity study taking into account variations in particle mass and shape as noted above. While the results of the work performed for this study are preliminary, they do show that continuing to use aluminum spheres in spacecraft risk assessments could result in an over-design of its MMOD protection systems. In such a case, the spacecraft could be heavier than needed, could cost more than needed, and could cost more to put into orbit than needed. The results obtained in this study also show the need to incorporate effects of mass and shape in mission risk assessment prior to first flight of any spacecraft as well as the need to continue to develop/refine BLEs so that they more accurately reflect the shape and material density variations inherent to the actual debris environment.     

New Horizons: Anticipated Scientific Investigations at the Pluto System

The New Horizons spacecraft will achieve a wide range of measurement objectives at the Pluto system, including color and panchromatic maps, 1.25–2.50 micron spectral images for studying surface compositions, and measurements of Pluto’s atmosphere (temperatures, composition, hazes, and the escape rate). Additional measurement objectives include topography, surface temperatures, and the solar wind interaction. The fulfillment of these measurement objectives will broaden our understanding of the Pluto system, such as the origin of the Pluto system, the processes operating on the surface, the volatile transport cycle, and the energetics and chemistry of the atmosphere. The mission, payload, and strawman observing sequences have been designed to achieve the NASA-specified measurement objectives and maximize the science return. The planned observations at the Pluto system will extend our knowledge of other objects formed by giant impact (such as the Earth–moon), other objects formed in the outer solar system (such as comets and other icy dwarf planets), other bodies with surfaces in vapor-pressure equilibrium (such as Triton and Mars), and other bodies with N₂:CH₄ atmospheres (such as Titan, Triton, and the early Earth).     

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Delayed gratification habitable zones: when deep outer solar system regions become balmy during post-main sequence stellar evolution

Like all low- and moderate-mass stars, the Sun will burn as a red giant during its later evolution, generating of solar luminosities for some tens of millions of years. During this post-main sequence phase, the habitable (i.e., liquid water) thermal zone of our Solar System will lie in the region where Triton, Pluto-Charon, and Kuiper Belt objects orbit. Compared with the 1 AU habitable zone where Earth resides, this "delayed gratification habitable zone" (DGHZ) will enjoy a far less biologically hazardous environment - with lower harmful radiation levels from the Sun, and a far less destructive collisional environment. Objects like Triton, Pluto-Charon, and Kuiper Belt objects, which are known to be rich in both water and organics, will then become possible sites for biochemical and perhaps even biological evolution. The Kuiper Belt, with >10(5) objects > or =50 km in radius and more than three times the combined surface area of the four terrestrial planets, provides numerous sites for possible evolution once the Sun's DGHZ reaches it. The Sun's DGHZ might be thought to only be of academic interest owing to its great separation from us in time. However, approximately 10(9) Milky Way stars burn as luminous red giants today. Thus, if icy-organic objects are common in the 20-50 AU zones of these stars, as they are in our Solar System (and as inferred in numerous main sequence stellar disk systems), then DGHZs may form a niche type of habitable zone that is likely to be numerically common in the Galaxy.     

Deep Impact: A Large-Scale Active Experiment on a Cometary Nucleus

The Deep Impact mission will provide the first data on the interior of a cometary nucleus and a comparison of those data with data on the surface. Two spacecraft, an impactor and a flyby spacecraft, will arrive at comet 9P/Tempel 1 on 4 July 2005 to create and observe the formation and final properties of a large crater that is predicted to be approximately 30-m deep with the dimensions of a football stadium. The flyby and impactor instruments will yield images and near infrared spectra (1–5 μm) of the surface at unprecedented spatial resolutions both before and after the impact of a 350-kg spacecraft at 10.2 km/s. These data will provide unique information on the structure of the nucleus near the surface and its chemical composition. They will also used to interpret the evolutionary effects on remote sensing data and will indicate how those data can be used to better constrain conditions in the early solar system.     

Two centuries of study of Algol systems

The periodicity of the light variation of Algol, discovered just over 200 years ago, may be regarded as the beginning of the study of eclipsing binary systems, especially those of the Algol type. Such studies, however, gained no real momentum until Vogel, 100 years ago, demonstrated by spectroscopy that the binary hypothesis of Algol's light changes is, in its essentials, correct. Three elements were needed to give us our modern notions of evolution by mass-transfer, namely: (i) results of combined analysis of light-curves and velocity-curves, (ii) evidence of circumstellar matter within binary systems and (iii) the notion that at least one component of an Algol system was near the limit of dynamical stability. All three entered the literature within about a decade, approximately halfway through the second century of eclipsing-binary studies; but it is the computational and instrumental developments of the last 25 years that have made real progress possible. We still lack commensurate theoretical developments, and the whole question of the contribution of Algol systems to the development of the Galaxy has barely been considered.     

Ultrastructural and geochemical characterization of Archean-Paleoproterozoic graphite particles: implications for recognizing traces of life in highly metamorphosed rocks

Abundant graphite particles occur in amphibolite-grade quartzite of the Archean-Paleoproterozoic Wutai Metamorphic Complex in the Wutaishan area of North China. Petrographic thin section observations suggest that the graphite particles occur within and between quartzite clasts and are heterogeneous in origin. Using HF maceration techniques, the Wutai graphite particles were extracted for further investigation. Laser Raman spectroscopic analysis of a population of extracted graphite discs indicated that they experienced a maximum metamorphic temperature of 513 +/- 50 degrees C, which is consistent with the metamorphic grade of the host rock and supports their indigenicity. Scanning and transmission electron microscopy revealed that the particles bear morphological features (such as hexagonal sheets of graphite crystals) related to metamorphism and crystal growth, but a small fraction of them (graphite discs) are characterized by a circular morphology, distinct marginal concentric folds, surficial wrinkles, and complex nanostructures. Ion microprobe analysis of individual graphite discs showed that their carbon isotope compositions range from -7.4 per thousand to -35.9 per thousand V-PDB (Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite), with an average of -20.3 per thousand, which is comparable to bulk analysis of extracted carbonaceous material. The range of their size, ultrastructures, and isotopic signatures suggests that the morphology and geochemistry of the Wutai graphite discs were overprinted by metamorphism and their ultimate carbon source probably had diverse origins that included abiotic processes. We considered both biotic and abiotic origins of the carbon source and graphite disc morphologies and cannot falsify the possibility that some circular graphite discs characterized by marginal folds and surficial wrinkles represent deflated, compressed, and subsequently graphitized organic-walled vesicles. Together with reports by other authors of acanthomorphic acritarchs from greenschist-amphibolite-grade metamorphic rocks, this study suggests that it is worthwhile to examine carbonaceous materials preserved in highly metamorphosed rocks for possible evidence of ancient life.     

The MESSENGER Science Operations Center

The MESSENGER Science Operations Center (SOC) is an integrated set of subsystems and personnel whose purpose is to obtain, provide, and preserve the scientific measurements and analysis that fulfill the objectives of the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission. The SOC has two main functional areas. The first is to facilitate science instrument planning and operational activities, including related spacecraft guidance and control operations, and to work closely with the Mission Operations Center to implement those plans. The second functional area, data management and analysis, involves the receipt of science-related telemetry, reformatting and cataloging this telemetry and related ancillary information, retaining the science data for use by the MESSENGER Science Team, and preparing data archives for delivery to the Planetary Data System; and the provision of operational assistance to the instrument and science teams in executing their algorithms and generating higher-level data products.     

Development and imperialism in space

This article analyses established models of imperialism and seeks to apply them to possible space development scenarios. Inherent in such an analysis is a critique of the predominant rationales for advanced Solar System development (permanent planetary bases, settlements and colonies). The argument that emerges suggests that no single rationale is sufficiently strong to propel humans towards Solar System expansion as yet. However, in the instance that an extraterrestrial material becomes economically valuable, Solar System development will probably proceed. Under this scenario the present politico-legal regimes which govern prospective space development (and, moreover, the philosophical inclinations of many of those involved in formulating such regimes) dictate that Solar System development will be of an imperialistic nature.