Uncertainties in gravity wave parameters,momentum fluxes,and flux divergences estimated from multi-layer measurements of mesospheric nightglow layers

Measurements of dynamic parameters of atmospheric gravity waves, mainly the vertical wavelength, the momentum flux and the momentum flux divergence, are affected by large uncertainties crudely documented in the scientific literature. By using methods of error analysis, we have quantified these uncertainties for frequently observed temporal and spatial wave scales. The results show uncertainties of ～10%, ～35%, and ～65%, at least, in the vertical wavelength, momentum flux, and flux divergence, respectively. The large uncertainties in the momentum flux and flux divergence are dominated by uncertainties in the Brunt-Väisälä frequency and in spatial separation of the nightglow layers, respectively. The measured uncertainties in fundamental wave parameters such as the wave amplitude, intrinsic period, horizontal wavelength, and wave orientation are ～10% or less and estimated directly from our nightglow image data set. Other key environmental quantities such as the scale height and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency, frequently considered as constants in gravity wave parameter estimations schemes, are actually quite variable, presenting uncertainties of ～4% and ～9%, respectively, according to the several solar activity and seasonal atmosphere scenarios from the NRLMSISE-00 model simulated here.     

不确定度表述中包含因子确定的一点质疑

针对测量结果中出具扩展不确定度时给出置信概率的表达方式,在依据国家规范不同部分确定其包含因子时的不一致性进行了讨论,并给出了解决设想。     

The effect of surface reflection function and of atmospheric parameters on the shortwave radiation budget

Errors in the determination of the shortwave radiation budget from broadband satellite measurements at the top and at the bottom of a cloudless atmosphere due to uncertainties of the actual parameters of the atmosphere and the surface are derived by computer modelling. The model uses measured bidirectional reflectance functions and realistic values of the optical parameters of the atmosphere. Examples are presented which show the range of such uncertainties. Neglecting the anisotropy of the reflection function of land surfaces results in high uncertainties of the shortwave radiation budget, both at the top and the bottom of the atmosphere. The uncertainties caused by actual uncertain atmospheric parameters are low if data of the meteorological network are properly used.     

数字示波器检定方法

叙述了用FLUKE9500B示波器校准仪检定数字示波器的方法,介绍了4项技术指标的检定,并分析了检定结果的不确定度。     

光栅式传动链误差测量系统的不确定度分析

为了进一步改善传动链误差测量系统的性能，以谐波减速器为被测对象，通过推导测量系统不确定度评定的一般方法，找出了测量系统的各个不确定度分量；通过分析系统中A类和B类不确定度，阐述了各个不确定度分量对整个测试系统的影响，提出了减少不确定度的相关措施，为优化传动误差测量系统的测量提供了指导。     

Uncertainties in the production and propagation of cosmic rays in the Milky Way

We discuss the main sources of uncertainties in the calculation of the positron and antiproton top of the atmosphere spectra using models including diffusion and convection or reacceleration. We show that, even including uncertainties, the models that include diffusion and convection are more consistent with existing measurements. The next generation experiments like PAMELA will help to reduce the uncertainties in the values of the main free parameters of the models, thus improving our knowledge of the origin and propagation of cosmic rays.     

无动力自动着陆轨道的鲁棒性分析

文中定义了能量梯度的概念,作为评价能量积累和消耗能力的指标。针对跨大气层飞行器对象特性的特点,重点讨论了气动参数的不确定性存在时的着陆点性能、整个下滑轨道容许的气动参数的不确定性范围和对初始动压的抑制能力,结果表明下滑轨道具有较好的鲁棒性。     

Tube-based robust output feedback model predictive control for autonomous rendezvous and docking with a tumbling target

In this paper, a tube-based robust output feedback model predictive control method (TRMPC) is proposed for controlling chaser spacecraft docking with a tumbling target in near-circular orbit. The controller contains a simple, stable, Luenberger state estimator and a tube-based robust model predictive controller. Several practical challenges are also considered under dock-enabling conditions, such as the control saturation, velocity constraint, approach corridor constraint, and collision avoidance constraint. Meanwhile, uncertainties are carefully analyzed when designing the controller, including dynamics uncertainty, measurement error, and control deviation. The TRMPC ensures that all possible state trajectories with uncertainties lie in the minimum robust positively invariant set (mRPI, i.e., the so-called tube in this paper). The tube center is the solution of a nominal (without uncertainties) system. Another important contribution of this paper is to propose a technique where it is unnecessary to calculate the mRPI explicitly. Thereby, the ‘curse of dimensionality’ can be avoided for a six-dimensional system. To verify the feasibility of the proposed TRMPC strategy in the presence of uncertainties, two scenarios of autonomous rendezvous and docking (AR&D) are simulated. The simulation results show that the TRMPC method is more efficient in minimizing the uncertainties, fuel consumption, and computational cost, compared to the classic model predictive control (MPC) method.     

火星进入段自主导航技术研究综述

火星大气进入过程的自主导航性能是影响火星着陆能力的重要因素之一.在此期间,导航方法的设计面临着可用敏感器少、环境气动等参数不确定大的困难.对火星进入过程中几种可用的自主导航方法的原理进行了阐述,探讨了其中的关键技术和研究现状,并对这些导航方法的优缺点进行了对比.针对当前进入段自主导航方式的不足,对如何提高火星进入段自主导航性能的手段进行了探讨.     

Ground-based research with heavy ions for space radiation protection.

Human exposure to ionizing radiation is one of the acknowledged potential showstoppers for long duration manned interplanetary missions. Human exploratory missions cannot be safely performed without a substantial reduction of the uncertainties associated with different space radiation health risks, and the development of effective countermeasures. Most of our knowledge of the biological effects of heavy charged particles comes from accelerator-based experiments. During the 35th COSPAR meeting, recent ground-based experiments with high-energy iron ions were discussed, and these results are briefly summarised in this paper. High quality accelerator-based research with heavy ions will continue to be the main source of knowledge of space radiation health effects and will lead to reductions of the uncertainties in predictions of human health risks. Efforts in materials science, nutrition and pharmaceutical sciences and their rigorous evaluation with biological model systems in ground-based accelerator experiments will lead to the development of safe and effective countermeasures to permit human exploration of the Solar System.     

Models of the structure of the atmosphere of Venus from the surface to 100 kilometers altitude

From a critical comparison and synthesis of data from the four Pioneer Venus Probes, the Pioneer Venus Orbiter, and the Venera 10, 12, and 13 landers, models of the lower and middle atmosphere of Venus are derived. The models are consistent with the data sets within the measurement uncertainties and established variability of the atmosphere. The models represent the observed variations of state properties with latitude, and preserve the observed static stability. The rationale and the approach used to derive the models are discussed, and the remaining uncertainties are estimated.     

Method for statistical comparison of geophysical data by multiple instruments which have differing accuracies

A novel correlative technique is introduced for intercomparison of measurements of similar quantities made using different techniques. This process involves a generalized least-squares fitting method which can be used to estimate the slope of the best-fitting straight line that results when two separate data sets which are expected to be linearly correlated are compared via scatter-plots. The different data types may be subject to different uncertainties in their measurements. The algorithm determines and graphs the interrelationship between the errors in each method and the slope of the line of best fit, assuming Gaussian statistics.     

基于间隙度量的鲁棒LPV控制律设计

针对高超声速飞行器飞行包线范围广和模型参数不确定性大的问题,提出了基于间隙度量的鲁棒线性变参数(LPV,Linear Parameter-Varying)控制律设计方法.该方法将间隙度量引入LPV控制器设计中,提出了基于最优间隙度量的凸分解策略,并将其应用于多胞顶点的分解和鲁棒LPV控制器的自增益调参,以降低控制器的保守性;考虑模型的参数不确定性求取多胞LPV系统的顶点模型并设计顶点控制器,以提高顶点边界附近LPV控制器的鲁棒性;以某型高超声速飞行器为对象设计了鲁棒LPV控制器.仿真结果表明:该方法能降低大包线内控制器的保守性,实现高超声速飞行器在整个设计包线内精确的指令跟踪,并且在模型参数存在大的不确定性情况下仍保证系统的鲁棒性能和稳定性.     

Strategy to search fragments from breakups in GEO

This paper proposes a strategy to search fragments from breakups in the Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) region based upon population prediction and motion prediction by means of ground-based optical observations. Breakup fragments have uncertainties in the states such as their position and motion, or even in their existence. Population prediction and motion prediction resolve those uncertainties. Population prediction evaluates the time-averaged distribution of fragments, whose position at a given time is unknown, in the celestial sphere. Motion prediction evaluates the expected motion of fragments appeared in image series acquired by a telescope’s CCD camera. This paper logically describes procedures of the search strategy, and provides mathematical expressions of population prediction and motion prediction. This paper also validates the search strategy via actual observations, in which a confirmed breakup in the GEO region is selected as a target. It is concluded that the proposed strategy is valid even for searching uncataloged fragments from breakups in the GEO region.     

Error constrained control of a pseudo-satellite with disturbance

This paper presents the control scheme of a pseudo-satellite in situations where error constraints, uncertainties, and external disturbances occur. The control scheme of a pseudo-satellite includes planar path following control scheme and altitude control scheme. In order to control the altitude of a pseudo-satellite, the backstepping technique is used to control the quality of air in the air balloon. To deal with the error constrained requirements of a pseudo-satellite’s position, a tan-type barrier Lyapunov function (TBLF) is proposed and incorporated with the guidance control schemes. Adaptive fuzzy disturbance observers are presented to estimate uncertainties and external disturbances. Rigorous stability analysis proves that the altitude error of the pseudo-satellite can be uniformly bounded, and the position error of which can be maintained within the range of constrained requirements, while all closed-loop signals are uniformly bounded regardless of uncertainties and disturbances.     

Disturbance observer based model predictive control for accurate atmospheric entry of spacecraft

Facing the complex aerodynamic environment of Mars atmosphere, a composite atmospheric entry trajectory tracking strategy is investigated in this paper. External disturbances, initial states uncertainties and aerodynamic parameters uncertainties are the main problems. The composite strategy is designed to solve these problems and improve the accuracy of Mars atmospheric entry. This strategy includes a model predictive control for optimized trajectory tracking performance, as well as a disturbance observer based feedforward compensation for external disturbances and uncertainties attenuation. 500-run Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed composite control scheme achieves more precise Mars atmospheric entry (3.8?km parachute deployment point distribution error) than the baseline control scheme (8.4?km) and integral control scheme (5.8?km).     

CMGs驱动空间机械臂的自适应终端滑模控制

摘要： 针对V构型控制力矩陀螺（CMGs）驱动的空间机械臂的轨迹跟踪控制问题,研究一种自适应非奇异终端滑模（ANTSM）控制方法.利用基于Kane方程的递推组集算法建立了系统的动力学模型.以跟踪误差为变量,构造非奇异滑动面,以保证跟踪误差在滑动面上有限时间收敛.针对系统质量特性参数与关节处干扰力矩的不确定性,设计自适应控制器用以调节控制增益.该控制方法无需不确定性的上界,且闭环系统具有最终一致有界性.仿真结果表明,该控制器可使系统准确跟踪期望轨迹,并对质量特性参数不确定性和关节干扰力矩具有良好的鲁棒性.     

Optimal H∞ robust output feedback control for satellite formation in arbitrary elliptical reference orbits

A two degree-of-freedom signal-based optimal H_∞ robust output feedback controller is designed for satellite formation in an arbitrary elliptical reference orbit. Based on high-fidelity linearized dynamics of relative motion, uncertainties introduced by non-zero eccentricity and gravitational J2 perturbation are separated to construct a robust control model. Furthermore, a distributed robust control model is derived by modifying the perturbed robust control model of each satellite with the eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix of the communication graph, which represent uncertainty in the communication topology. A signal-based optimal H_∞ robust controller is then designed primarily. Considering that the uncertainties involved in the distributed robust control model have a completely diagonal structure, the corresponding analyses are made through structured singular value theory to reduce the conservativeness. Based on simulation results, further designs including increasing the degrees of freedom of the controller, modifying the performance and control weighted functions, adding a post high-pass filter according to the dynamic characteristics, and reducing the control model are made to improve the control performance. Nonlinear simulations demonstrate that the resultant optimal H_∞ robust output feedback controller satisfies the robust performance requirements under uncertainties caused by non-zero eccentricity, J2 perturbation, and varying communication topology, and that 5 m accuracy in terms of stable desired formation configuration can be achieved by the presented optimal H_∞ robust controller. In addition to considering the widely discussed uncertainties caused by the orbit of each satellite in a formation, the optimal H_∞ robust output feedback control model presented in the current work considers the uncertainties caused by varying communication topology in the satellite formation that works in a cooperative way. Other new improvements include adopting a new method to more accurately describe and analyze the effects of the higher-order J2 perturbation, combining all the uncertainties into a diagonal structure, and utilizing a structured singular value to synthesize and analyze the controller.     

基于LMI的具有一类不确定性数据的参数估计

 对于系数矩阵 A和观测向量b 存在不确定性的情况,本文提出了一种基于线性矩阵不等式(LMI)的参数估计方法,这种方法适用于不确定性的先验界已知的情况.由此而得到的算法计算更为简单,实用并具有一般性.文中给出了计算公式的推导、解的分析,并针对几种特殊的情况进行了讨论.最后给出了仿真结果.     

Validation of aerosol measurements by the satellite sensors SAM II and SAGE

The satellite sensors SAM II and SAGE have been developing a global data base on stratospheric aerosols since they were launched in October 1978 and February 1979, respectively. The validity of this data base has been tested by numerous comparisons with other measurements made by lidars, balloon-borne particle counters, and aircraft-borne impactors and filters. Because the satellite sensors measure extinction and the correlative sensors measure other properties (e.g., backscatter, number, mass), special techniques are required to convert each measured property to other properties and to quantify conversion uncertainties and measurement uncertainties. Use of these techniques in two major comparative experiments shows that the SAM II and SAGE extinction measurements agree with each other and with values derived from dustsonde, lidar, and filter measurements. In addition, the comparative experiments have highlighted the uncertainties of each type of sensor and stimulated further efforts to reduce these uncertainties.