Testing the improvement of performance of the IRI model in the estimation of TEC over the mid-latitude American regions

This paper mainly discusses the improvement of performance of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model in estimating the variation of the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) over the mid latitude American regions during the relatively low (2008–2010) and relatively high (2012) solar activity years. This has been conducted employing the VTEC values obtained from the dual frequency ground based Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers located at Mineral Area Community College, MACC (37.85°N, 269.52°W) and Mississippi County Airport, MAIR (36.85°N, 270.64°W), and the latest versions of the IRI online model (IRI 2007, IRI 2012 and IRI 2016). The study mainly focuses to compare the trend of variability of the monthly and seasonal modeled VTEC values (IRI 2007 VTEC, IRI 2012 VTEC and IRI 2016 VTEC) with the corresponding measured VTEC values (GPS VTEC). The overall results show that the IRI VTEC values (almost in all versions of the model) are generally smaller than the GPS VTEC except after about 15:00 UT (09:00 LT) in the December solstice when the Sun shifts to the high solar activity. On the contrary, overestimations of the VTEC values by the model are observed in traversing from the low solar activity (2008) to high solar activity (2012) phase, especially after about 15:00 UT (09::00 LT) with the IRI 2016 version showing the highest. In general, the IRI 2007 and IRI 2012 versions show similar monthly and seasonal underestimations or overestimations showing that the two versions have almost similar performance. The IRI 2016 version is generally better in capturing both the diurnal and arithmetic mean GPS VTEC values with some exceptional months and seasons as compared to those of the IRI 2007 and IRI 2012 versions.     

Quasi-biennial oscillation in GPS VTEC measurements

The quasi-biennial oscillation, QBO, a well known periodicity in the equatorial stratospheric zonal winds, is also found in ionospheric parameters and in solar and geomagnetic activity indices. Many authors speculated about the link between the QBO in solar and geomagnetic activity and the QBO in atmospheric parameters. In this work we analyze the presence of the QBO in the ionosphere using the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) values obtained from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements during the period 1999–2012. In particular, we used IONEX files, i.e. the International GNSS Service (IGS) ionospheric products. IONEX provide VTEC values around the world at 2-h intervals. From these data we compute global and zonal averages of VTEC at different local times at mid and equatorial geomagnetic latitudes. VTEC and Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) solar flux time series are analyzed using a wavelet multi resolution analysis. In all cases the QBO is detected among other expected periodicities.     

Low solar activity variability and IRI 2007 predictability of equatorial Africa GPS TEC

Diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) over the equatorial region of the African continent and a comparison with IRI-2007 derived TEC (IRI-TEC), using all three options (namely; NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI-2001), are presented in this paper. The variability and comparison are presented for 2009, a year of low solar activity, using data from thirteen Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. VTEC values were grouped into four seasons namely March Equinox (February, March, April), June Solstice (May, June, July), September Equinox (August, September, October), and December Solstice (November, December, January). VTEC generally increases from 06h00 LT and reaches its maximum value at approximately 15h00–17h00 LT during all seasons and at all locations. The NeQuick and IRI01-corr options of the IRI model predict reasonably well the observed diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of VTEC values. However, the IRI-2001 option gave a relatively poor prediction when compared with the other options. The post-midnight and post-sunset deviations between modeled and observed VTEC could arise because NmF2 or the shape of the electron density profile, or both, are not well predicted by the model; hence some improvements are still required in order to obtain improved predictions of TEC over the equatorial region of the Africa sector.     

Negative VTEC with spherical harmonic expansion model under different solar activity conditions

The Earth’s ionosphere can be described by a spherical harmonic (SH) expansion up to a specific degree. However, there exist negative vertical total electron content (VTEC) values in the global ionosphere map (GIM) with the SH expansion model. In this contribution, we specifically investigated the negative VTEC values that are induced by the SH expansion model and validated the performance of the inequality-constrained least squares (ICLS) method in eliminating the negative VTEC values. The GPS data from 2004 to 2017 was selected to cover one solar cycle and the experiments under different solar activity conditions were analyzed. The results in our work show that the occurrence of the negative VTEC values is attributed to the deficiency of the SH expansion model when the VTEC itself is small instead of the unevenly distribution of the GNSS stations. The negative VTEC values appear periodically in the temporal domain, showing apparently one year and half year periods. During one year, two peaks in June and December can be observed in the time series of the negative VTEC values. The number of negative VTEC values in June is obvious larger than that in December. During one solar cycle, the number of negative VTEC values under quiet solar activity condition is obvious larger than that under strong solar activity condition. In the spatial domain, the appearance of the negative VTEC values is strongly related with the movement of the subsolar point. In the latitude of the subsolar point has the largest magnitude, the negative values will appear on the opposite hemisphere and the further from the subsolar point the more negative values. The maximum number of the negative VTEC values in the southern hemisphere appears in June, while the peak value in the northern hemisphere appears in December. The maximum number of negative VTEC values in the southern hemisphere is generally larger than that in the northern hemisphere. In addition, the negative VTEC values are distributed both at middle latitude and high latitude in the southern hemisphere, while they are mainly distributed at high latitude in the northern hemisphere. When the ICLS method is used, the negative VTEC values can be eliminated efficiently and it has nearly no influence on the positive VTEC values. The ICLS method can also improve the receiver’s differential code bias (DCB) and significantly decrease the unreasonable negative slant TEC (STEC) values along the lines of sight. Using the final GIM product of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPLG) as a reference, the root mean square (RMS) of the ICLS solution shows maximum 25%, 20% and 45% improvement relative to the least squares (LS) solution at northern high latitude, southern middle latitude and southern high latitude, respectively.     

太阳活动低年低纬地区VTEC 变化特性分析

利用福州台站(26.1°N, 119.3°E, 磁纬14.4°N)电离层闪烁与TEC监测仪2006-2010年的观测数据, 对该地区垂直总电子含量(VTEC)进行时间变化特性分析. 结果表明, 春秋冬三季的VTEC平均最高值出现在06:00UT, 夏季出现在08:00UT, 所有季节的平均最低值均出现在21:00UT; VTEC变化存在季节异常和弱冬季异常, 春秋季节高, 冬夏季节低, 夏季VTEC比冬季低且最大值出现时间延迟; VTEC在2006-2009年呈现下降的变化趋势, 2010年开始增强, 年际变化与太阳活动及地磁活动变化趋势具有较好的对应关系; VTEC变化与太阳活动存在很好的相关性, 相关系数达到0.5以上, 地磁活动则显示了弱相关的特性; F_10.7与VTEC的相关性随着每天Kp指数总值Σ_kp的增大而减小.      

Seasonal variability of GPS-VTEC and model during low solar activity period (2006–2007) near the equatorial ionization anomaly crest location in Chinese zone

Variability of vertical TEC recorded at Fuzhou (26.1°N, 119.3°E, geomagnetic latitude 14.4°N), Xiamen (24.5°N, 118.1°E, geomagnetic latitude 13.2°N), Nanning (22.8°N, 108.3°E, geomagnetic latitude 11.4°N), China, during the low solar activity in 2006–2007 have been analyzed and discussed. Remarkable seasonal anomaly was found over three stations with the highest value during spring and the lowest value during summer. The relative standard deviation of VTEC is over 20% all the time, with steady and smooth variation during daytime while it has a large fluctuation during nighttime. The biggest correlation coefficient was found in the VTEC-sunspot pair with a value of over 0.5. It seems that solar activity has a better correlation ship than geomagnetic activity with the variation of VTEC and better correlations are found with more long-term data when comparing our previous study. The results of comparing observation with model prediction in three sites reveal again that the SPIM model overestimates the measured VTEC in the low latitude area.     

Vertical TEC variations and model during low solar activity at a low latitude station,Xiamen

GPS-derived vertical TEC recorded at Xiamen (24.5°N, 118.1°E, geomagnetic latitude 13.2°N), China, during year 2006 is analyzed for the first time and compared to that predicted by ionosphere model SPIM recommend by ISO. A manifest seasonal anomaly is found with the high value during equinoctial season and low value during summer and winter season. Relative standard deviation for VTEC shows high value at around midnight and before sunrise. The correlation analysis exhibits that the variation of VTEC has a very weak relation with geomagnetic and solar activities (Dst, AP, SSN and F10.7). Comparative results reveal that the SPIM overestimates the observed VTEC at most of the time.     

Statistical analysis of the total electron content observed at 23°S in the Brazilian sector

The vertical total electron content (VTEC) time series obtained at São José dos Campos (23.2°S, 45.9°W), Brazil, were statistically analyzed to study the low latitude ionosphere in the Brazilian sector during the year of 2006 (a period of low solar activity). Statistical analysis showed that Probability Density Functions (PDFs) and kurtosis have an intermittent behavior on small-scales (periods from minutes to one day) and presence of two functions on large-scales (periods from 3 to 30 days). The skewness result suggests the presence of some kind of waves due to the action of tropospheric sources (lower atmospheric origin). Results obtained by wavelet transform show strong oscillations with scale-sizes between 3 and 30 days, possibly associated with the planetary oscillations. According to these statistical and wavelet analyses we conjecture that there exist two important factors regarding the ionospheric effects: one factor is due to turbulent states found in small scales and the other factor consists in a more or less deterministic state provided by planetary waves (3–16 days or full solar rotation (27–28 days)). Further, these strong oscillations were also noted in multifractal analysis. We found a decrease of multifractality degree of the same scale-sizes.     

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Dependence of the F-region peak electron density (foF2) on solar activity observed in the equatorial ionospheric anomaly region in the Brazilian sector

The long-term (solar cycle) changes in the Sun and how it affects the ionospheric F-region observed at São José dos Campos (23.2° S, 45.9° W), Brazil, a location under the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly, have been investigated in this paper. The dependence of the F-region peak electron density (foF2) on solar activity during the descending phase of the 23rd solar cycle for the periods of high, medium, and low solar activity has been studied. The ionospheric F-region peak electron densities observed during high and medium solar activity show seasonal variations with maxima close to the equinox periods, whereas during the low solar activity the maxima during the equinox periods is absent. However, during the low solar activity only change observed is a large decrease from summer to winter months. We have further investigated changes in the different ionospheric F-region parameters (minimum virtual height of the F-region (h′F), virtual height at 0.834foF2 (hpF2), and foF2) during summer to winter months in low solar activity periods, 2006–2007 and 2007–2008. Large changes in the two ionospheric parameters (hpF2 and foF2) are observed during summer to winter months in the two low solar activity periods investigated.     

Improved predictions of equatorial TEC for real time applications

It is important to use models developed specifically for the equatorial ionospheric estimation for real-time applications, particularly in Satellite Navigation. This work demonstrates a methodology for improved predictions of VTEC in real time using the model developed for the equatorial ionosphere by the authors. This work has been done using TEC data of the low solar activity period of 2005 obtained using dual frequency GPS receivers installed under the GAGAN project of ISRO. For the purpose, the model is first used in conjunction with Kriging technique. Improvement in accuracy is observed when compared with the estimations from the model alone using the measurements as true reference. Further improvement is obtained by Bayesian combination of these estimates with independent Neural Network based predictions. Statistical performance of improvement is provided. An improvement of ∼1 m in confidence level of estimation of VTEC is obtained.     

Influence of the 27-day solar flux variations on the ionosphere parameters measured at Irkutsk in 2003–2005

We present an investigation of the influence of the 27-day solar flux variations, caused by solar rotation, on the ionosphere parameters such as the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the total electron content (TEC). Our observational data were obtained with the Irkutsk Digisonde (DPS-4) located at 52.3 North and 104.3 East during the period from 2003 to 2005. In addition, we use TEC data from the Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) based on Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The solar radiation flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (F10.7 index) is used as an index characterizing the solar activity level. A good correlation between observed ionosphere parameters and solar activity variations is found especially in autumn-to-winter season. We estimate the impact of the 27-day solar flux variations on the day-to-day variability and determine the time delay of the ionosphere response.     

Longitudinal variations of the ionospheric trough position

For the first time a comprehensive pattern of the longitudinal effect of the ionospheric trough position was obtained. We present new results with longitudinal variations of the winter trough position as a function of geomagnetic latitude for both hemispheres and conditions of high and low solar activity and all local time hours. We used a large observational data set obtained onboard the Kosmos-900, Interkosmos-19 and CHAMP satellites for quiet geomagnetic conditions. We found that a magnitude of the trough position longitudinal effect averaged for a fixed local time is greater in the daytime (6–8°) than in the nighttime (3–5°). The longitudinal effect magnitude reaches its maximum (16°) in the morning (at 08 LT) in the Southern hemisphere at high solar activity. But on certain days at any solar activity the longitudinal effect magnitude can reach 9–10° even at night. The shape of the longitudinal effect was found to differ significantly in two hemispheres. In the Northern hemisphere the trough is usually closest to the pole in the eastern (American) longitudinal sector, and in the Southern hemisphere the trough is closest in the western (Eurasian) longitudinal sector. The magnitude and shape of the longitudinal effect is also different during low and high solar activity. The Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) simulations demonstrate that during low solar activity, the longitudinal variations of the daytime trough position is mainly determined by longitudinal variations of the ionization function, formed due to the longitudinal variations in the solar zenith angle and the atomic oxygen density distribution. The longitudinal variations of the nighttime trough position is formed by the longitudinal variations in ionization of precipitating auroral particles, neutral atmosphere composition, and electric field.     

Accuracy and consistency of different global ionospheric maps released by IGS ionosphere associate analysis centers

Due to the differences of ionospheric modeling methods and selected tracking stations, the accuracy and consistency of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) released by Ionosphere Associate Analysis Centers (IAACs) are different. In this study, we evaluate and analyze in detail the accuracy and consistency of GIMs final products provided by six IAACs from three different aspects. Firstly, the comparison of these GIMs shows that the mean bias (MEAN) is related to the modeling methods of various IAACs. The variation trend of the standard deviation (STD) is consistent with the solar activities, and accompanied by certain seasonal and annual periodic variations. The MEAN between IGS and each center is about −1.3 to 1.0 TECU, and the STD is about 1.4–2.5 TECU. Secondly, the validation with GPS TEC shows that the STD of CODE is the smallest at various latitudes, and the STD is about 0.7–4.5 TECU. Thirdly, The validation with the Jason2 VTEC shows that the STD between Jason2 and IAACs is about 4.4–5.2 TECU. In addition, the STD between Jason2 and six GIMs in the areas with more tracking stations is better than that of the regions with fewer tracking stations in different latitude regions. Regardless of whether the tracking stations are more or less, the MEAN and STD in high solar activity are larger than in low solar activity.     

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic and possible association with solar activity and galactic cosmic rays

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic for the period 1874–1995 (Mean Sea Level Pressure archive, Climatic Research Unit, UK) were compared with indices of solar and geomagnetic activity and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations characterized by the concentration of the cosmogenic isotope ¹⁰Be. A periodicity of ∼80 yrs close to the Gleissberg cycle in the intensity of the 11-yr solar cycles was found in the pressure variations at middle latitudes (45–65°N) in the cold half of the year, which is the period of intensive cyclogenesis. It was shown that a long-term increase of pressure in this region coincided with a secular rise of solar/geomagnetic activity which was accompanied by a decrease in GCR intensity. Long-term decreases of pressure were observed during the periods of low (or decreasing) intensities of sunspot cycles. Similar features were also found in the spectral characteristics of geomagnetic activity indices, GCR intensity and pressure at middle latitudes on the quasi-decadal time scale. Effects of solar activity/GCR variations on the surface pressure seem to be more pronounced in the North Atlantic zone of intensive cyclogenesis (near the eastern coasts of North America). The results obtained suggest possible links between long-term variations in cyclonic activity at extratropical latitudes of the North Atlantic and solar activity/GCR variations on the time scales from ∼10 to ∼100 yrs.     

Dependence of sporadic-E layer and lower thermosphere dynamics on solar activity

The influence of solar activity level on frequency and stochastic sporadic-E layer parameters is considered for station Moscow (56 N, 37 E) during three solar cycles (1958–1988). Es layers with various intensity levels and times of appearance were considered separately. Some regularities of sporadic-E layer reaction to variations of solar activity are revealed. An explanation of the revealed regularities is offered in terms of dynamic processes of the neutral atmosphere.     

气球卫星1990—81B和1990－81C的轨道变化和高层大气密度的测定

本文测定给出我国首次发射的专用于高层大气探测的两颗气球卫星DQ-1A(1990-81B)和DQ-1B(1990-81C)整个寿命期间的轨道变化,以及利用轨道衰变率,采用适合气球卫星近国轨道反测密度的一种方法,获得500-900km高度范围内太阳峰年期间的高层大气密度及其变化。结果表明,同时发射的两颗面积质量比不同的气球卫星所测定的高层大气密度及其变化非常一致,且明显地显示密度随太阳活动逐日的和27天周期性的变化。本文将密度测定结果与高层大气模型进行了比较和分析。      

地基单站GNSS的电离层VTEC高精度解算方法

利用IGS提供的双频GNSS观测数据，分析了Kalman方法解算电离层垂直总电子含量（Vertical Total Electron Content，VTEC）存在的问题，提出了Kriging-Kalman改进解算方法，并对两种方法解算的电离层VTEC进行分析和比较.结果表明:在低纬地区，当观测卫星数量发生改变时，Kalman方法解算的VTEC存在跳变异常，Kriging-Kalman方法解算的VTEC变化较为平稳，不存在跳变现象.对比分析耀斑期间两种方法解算VTEC的变化，发现Kalman方法解算的VTEC变化明显小于耀斑引起VTEC的增量；Kriging-Kalman方法解算结果与实际变化相一致.表明Kriging-Kalman方法计算精度更高，能够更精确计算耀斑等剧烈异常空间天气活动期间的VTEC及其变化，有利于电离层VTEC日常精确监测、研究和工程应用.      

Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data

A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper, we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere, which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases, reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field, we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering).     

Ionospheric storm due to solar Coronal mass ejection in September 2017 over the Brazilian and African longitudes

Coronal mass ejection (CME) occurs when there is an abrupt release of a large amount of solar plasma, and this cloud of plasma released by the Sun has an intrinsic magnetic field. In addition, CMEs often follow solar flares (SF). The CME cloud travels outward from the Sun to the interplanetary medium and eventually hits the Earth’s system. One of the most significant aspects of space weather is the ionospheric response due to SF or CME. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind speed, and the number of particles are relevant parameters of the CME when it hits the Earth’s system. A geomagnetic storm is most geo-efficient when the plasma cloud has an interplanetary magnetic field southward and it is accompanied by an increase in the solar wind speed and particle number density. We investigated the ionospheric response (F-region) in the Brazilian and African sectors during a geomagnetic storm event on September 07–10, 2017, using magnetometer and GPS-TEC networks data. Positive ionospheric disturbances are observed in the VTEC during the disturbed period (September 07–08, 2017) over the Brazilian and African sectors. Also, two latitudinal chains of GPS-TEC stations from the equatorial region to low latitudes in the East and West Brazilian sectors and another chain in the East African sector are used to investigate the storm time behavior of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). We noted that the EIA was disturbed in the American and African sectors during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Also, the Brazilian sector was more disturbed than the African sector.