影响地球环境的太阳质子事件的时间过程

利用1966年以来的大量太阳耀斑以及相应质子事件的资料,分析研究了质子事件到达时间和极大时间同耀斑经度位置的统计关系.结果表明当耀斑位置处于经过地球的行星际大尺度场磁力线足点位置附近时,上述两种时间过程最短.这个结果支持了太阳耀斑粒子经日冕传播再向行星际空间传播的二阶段传播模型.      

X级质子耀斑的特征研究

为了更加准确地判断X级耀斑是否引发质子事件,对X级质子耀斑和非质子耀斑的耀斑积分通量、源区、CME速度、CME角宽度、背景太阳风速度及背景X射线通量的分布进行了统计研究.发现非质子耀斑和质子耀斑的积分通量、经度、CME速度和CME角宽度具有明显不同的分布.非质子耀斑大多集中在东部,耀斑积分通量小于0.3J·m-2,CME速度小于1300km·s-1的区域内;质子耀斑大多集中在中部或西部,耀斑积分通量大于0.3J·m-2,CME速度大于1300km·s-1的区域内.质子耀斑伴随的CME角宽度主要集中在360°,非质子耀斑的CME角宽度分布则相对分散.两类耀斑的背景太阳风速度和背景X射线通量分布差别不大.利用两类耀斑各个参量分布上的差异,有望提高X级耀斑预报的准确率.      

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

太阳质子耀斑的一个统计性质

本文研究太阳质子耀斑相对于太阳光球大尺度平均磁场中性线的分布, 给出一个新得到的质子耀斑的统计性质。研究太阳质子事件及其源耀斑的统计性质, 是太阳物理和空间物理学的重要前沿课题。从太阳活动预报及地球空间环境预报研究的角度看, 一个重要的问题是质子耀斑在      

An experiment to study solar flare effects on radio-communication signals

The occurrence of radio signal fading events caused by ionospheric absorption plays an important role in the performance of radio-communication systems. It is necessary to know the magnitude and time-scale of such events in order to specify technical parameters of the communication system to be used. Generally, fading events are associated with solar flares, which are characterized by sudden increase in the solar X-ray flux that causes an increase in the ionization in the lower ionosphere. The abrupt increase of ionization causes the absorption of radio waves propagating in the Earth–ionosphere wave-guide and is reported as radio signal fading events. A simple experiment to monitor the behavior of lower ionosphere has been carried out at the Southern Space Observatory-SSO/INPE (29.43°S, 53.8°W), located in southern Brazil. The experiment is basically a computer controlled radio receiver that records the received signal strength of Amplitude Modulated (AM) radio signals in the HF (High Frequencies) range. We analyzed data of the 6 MHz beacon signal that has been transmitted by a broadcasting radio station located about 400 km from the observation site. In this work we present initial results of daily variation of the received signal strength and fading events associated with solar flares observed in the 6 MHz signal monitored by the experiment during 2001. X-ray solar flux data from the GOES-8 satellite were used to identify X-ray solar bursts associated with solar flares. Based on the one-year data collected by the experiment, a statistical summary of fading occurrences and their correlation with solar flares, as well as the distributions of time-scales and magnitudes of such events are presented.     

太阳质子通量模型研究

太阳质子事件对航天活动构成重要威胁, 预测一定时期内太阳质子通量对航天器抗辐射加固设计有重要的指导意义. 在第20至23太阳活动周的太阳质子事件数据统计分析的基础上, 建立了一个针对 E>10 MeV和 E>30 MeV太阳质子通量的新模型. 新模型与目前航天工程中常用的JPL模型相比较, 引入了太阳活动性对质子事件发生概率的影响因素, 能够评估不同太阳活动水平下的质子通量, 其结果更符合质子事件的分布特征.      

Solar proton enhancements in different energy channels and coronal mass ejections during the last solar cycle

The main properties of 11622 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission’s Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO-C2) from January 1996 through December 2006 are considered. Moreover, the extended database of solar proton enhancements (SPEs) with proton flux >0.1 pfu at energy >10 MeV measured at the Earth’s orbit is also studied. A comparison of these databases gives new results concerning the sources and acceleration mechanisms of solar energetic particles. Specifically, coronal mass ejections with width >180° (wide) and linear speed >800 km/s (fast) seem they have the best correlation with solar proton enhancements. The study of some specific solar parameters, such as soft X-ray flares, sunspot numbers, solar flare index etc. has showed that the soft X-ray flares with importance >M5 may provide a reasonable proxy index for the SPE production rate. From this work, it is outlined that the good relation of the fast and wide coronal mass ejections to proton enhancements seems to lead to a similar conclusion. In spite of the fact that in the case of CMEs the statistics cover only the last solar cycle, while the measurements of SXR flares are extended over three solar cycles, it is obvious for the studied period that the coronal mass ejections can also provide a good index for the solar proton production.     

第21～24太阳周4类空间天气事件爆发特征统计分析

对第21～24太阳周不同等级的太阳X射线耀斑事件、太阳质子事件、地磁暴事件及高能电子增强事件的爆发频次特征进行统计，结果表明:太阳周耀斑爆发的总数量与该太阳周的黑子数峰值呈正比，耀斑总数、X级耀斑事件数与峰值的相关系数分别为0.974，0.997；太阳质子事件主要发生在峰年前后1～2年，约占总发生次数的80%，峰值通量大于10pfu （1 pfu=1 cm-2·sr-1·s-1）的质子事件中，84%伴有耀斑爆发，并且主要伴随M或X级耀斑，少量伴随C级耀斑，峰值通量大于1000pfu的质子事件中，98%伴随M或X级耀斑，并且以X级耀斑为主；第21，22，23和24太阳周发生地磁暴最频繁的时间分别在1982，1991，2003年和2015年，分别滞后黑子数峰值时间3年、2年、2年和1年；72%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周下降期，24%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周上升期.      

Results of solar observations by the CORONAS-F payload

The CORONAS-F mission experiments and results have been reviewed. The observations with the DIFOS multi-channel photometer in a broad spectral range from 350 to 1500 nm have revealed the dependence of the relative amplitudes of p-modes of the global solar oscillations on the wavelength that agrees perfectly well with the earlier data obtained in a narrower spectral ranges. The SPIRIT EUV observations have enabled the study of various manifestations of solar activity and high-temperature events on the Sun. The data from the X-ray spectrometer RESIK, gamma spectrometer HELICON, flare spectrometer IRIS, amplitude–temporal spectrometer AVS-F, and X-ray spectrometer RPS-1 have been used to analyze the X- and gamma-ray emission from solar flares and for diagnostics of the flaring plasma. The absolute and relative content of various elements (such as potassium, argon, and sulfur) of solar plasma in flares has been determined for the first time with the X-ray spectrometer RESIK. The Solar Cosmic Ray Complex monitored the solar flare effects in the Earth’s environment. The UV emission variations recorded during solar flares in the vicinity of the 120-nm wavelength have been analyzed and the amplitude of relative variations has been determined.     

太阳耀斑显著的热和非热事件的统计特征

本文利用GOES卫星和SMM卫星软、硬X射线耀斑观测资料,分析耀斑中软、硬X射线辐射流量的分布,发现太阳耀斑存在着显著的热事件(PT事件)和显著的非热事件(PNT事件),它们主要特征是:(1)PT事件为缓变型耀斑,PNT事件为脉冲型耀斑;(2)PT事件的硬X射线谱较软,PNT事件能谱较硬;(3)PNT事件非热能量释放速率比PT事件快3—10倍;(4)耀斑发展趋缓慢,PT事件中软X射线峰值流量越大;(5)耀斑中PNT事件约占60％,PT事件约占40％.最后定性讨论了产生PT和PNT事件的可能机制.      

太阳质子事件警报

采用人工神经网络预报方法,利用太阳耀斑的日面位置、X射线辐射的峰值流量及其上升时间、2695MHz和8800MHz微波辐射的半积分流量等5个物理参量,提出了一个新的太阳质子事件警报方案,预报太阳质子事件的发生及其流量和时间．该方案在本文检验中达到93．75％的预报准确率．     

一种新的太阳质子事件警报方法的探讨

本文分析了第21太阳活动周后半期的太阳质子耀斑硬X射线辐射资料, 发现它们的峰值流量、积分流量、上升沿斜率、X光子的最高能量和持续时间等物理参数之间有着不同于非质子耀斑的相关性。据此, 本文采用模糊聚类分析法, 对21太阳活动周期间(1980.2—1986.2)的质子事件进行预报试验。其报准率为88.5%, 虚报率为53.1%, 漏报率为11.5%。本文提供了基于X射线辐射特征的太阳质子事件警报的新途径和方法。      

A statistical study of post-flare-associated CME events

We present a statistical study of post-flare-associated CMEs (PFA-CMEs) during the period from 1996 to 2010. By investigating all CMEs and X-ray flares, respectively, in the LASCO and GOES archives, we found 15875 CMEs of which masses are well measured and 25112 X-ray flares of which positions are determined from their optical counterparts. Under certain temporal and spatial criteria of these CMEs and solar flare events, 291PFA-CMEs events have been selected. Linking the flare fluxes with CME speeds of these paired events, we found that there is a reasonable positive linear relation between the CME linear speed and associated flare flux. The results show also the CME width increases as the flux of its associated solar flare increases. Besides we found that there is a fine positive linear relation between the CME mass and its width. Matching the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find the CME mass increases as the flux of its associated solar flare increases. Finally we find the PFA-CME events are in regular more decelerated than the other CMEs.     

CME–flare association during the 23rd solar cycle

The relation between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are statistically studied. More than 10,000 CME events observed by SOHO/LASCO during the period 1996–2005 have been analyzed. The soft X-ray flux measurements provided by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), recorded more than 20,000 flares in the same time period. The data is filtered under certain temporal and spatial conditions to select the CME–flare associated events. The results show that CME–flare associated events are triggered with a lift-off time within the range 0.4–1.0 h. We list a set of 41 CME–flare associated events satisfying the temporal and spatial conditions. The listed events show a good correlation between the CME energy and the X-ray flux of the CME–flare associated events with correlation coefficient of 0.76.     

The gas pixel detector as a solar X-ray polarimeter and imager

The Sun is the nearest astrophysical source with a very intense emission in the X-ray band. The study of energetic events, such as solar flares, can help us to understand the behaviour of the magnetic field of our star. There are in the literature numerous studies published about polarization predictions, for a wide range of solar flares models involving the emission from thermal and/or non-thermal processes, but observations in the X-ray band have never been exhaustive.The gas pixel detector (GPD) was designed to achieve X-ray polarimetric measurements as well as X-ray images for far astrophysical sources. Here we present the possibility to employ this instrument for the observation of our Sun in the X-ray band.     

Solar flares,CMEs and solar energetic particle events during solar cycle 24

We present here a study of Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPs) associated with solar flares during 2010–2014 in solar cycle 24. We have selected the flare events (≥GOES M-class), which produced SEPs. The SEPs are classified into three categories i.e. weak (proton intensity?≤?1?pfu), minor (1?pfu?<?proton intensity?<?10?pfu) and major (proton intensity?≥?10?pfu). We used the GOES data for the SEP events which have intensity greater than one pfu and SOHO/ERNE data for the SEP event less than one pfu intensity. In addition to the flare and SEP properties, we have also discussed different properties of associated CMEs.     

1996-2002年太阳耀斑的统计分析

分析了1996-2002年南北半球的太阳黑子相对数和南北半球太阳X射线耀斑级别(简称Imp)≥M1．0的太阳X射线耀斑的特征和不对称性．分析结果表明，南北半球的太阳耀斑活动的程度交替上升，在2001年7月以前北半球的太阳耀斑活动强于南半球，2001年7月开始耀斑活动逐渐以南半球为主．本文还逐月分析了1996—2001年南北半球的耀斑指数．2000年7月为第23周太阳指数最大的一个月，与第23周太阳黑子相对数最大月均值吻合．     

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

Solar extreme events 2005–2006: Effects on near-Earth space systems and interplanetary systems

Extreme events are defined as those events in which the characteristics (e.g. field strength, speed, intensity of radiation, energies) of the associated phenomena (e.g. solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar proton events) are some orders of magnitude larger than in other events. Such strong events commonly occur about two years before and after sunspot maximum and some strong events occur as well in the declining phase before the solar activity minimum [Bothmer V., Zhukov A. The 11 Sun as the prime source of space weather, in: Bothmer, V., Daglis, I. (Eds.), Space Weather: Physics and Effects, Springer Praxis Books, 12 pp. 438, 2007]. In the first part of the paper the characteristics of the Jan. 2005 and Dec. 2006 events are given. This is followed by a presentation of the effects that were encountered on technological systems and also addresses the issue of what could have occurred on biological systems during such events. The second part of the paper deals with how one should go about analyzing solar extreme events - as part of the global distribution of all events or as ”outliers” with their own special characteristics.