一种新的太阳质子事件警报方法的探讨

本文分析了第21太阳活动周后半期的太阳质子耀斑硬X射线辐射资料,发现它们的峰值流量、积分流量、上升沿斜率、X光子的最高能量和持续时间等物理参数之间有着不同于非质子耀斑的相关性。据此,本文采用模糊聚类分析法,对21太阳活动周期间(1980.2—1986.2)的质子事件进行预报试验。其报准率为88.5％,虚报率为53.1％,漏报率为11.5％。本文提供了基于X射线辐射特征的太阳质子事件警报的新途径和方法。

A DISCUSSION ON A NEW METHOD OF THE SOLAR PROTON FLARE WARNING

In this paper, the observational data of hard X-ray emission of solar proton and non-proton flares proveded by SMM satellite during 21st solar cycle are analyzed. The results show that for proton flares the correlativities among the hard X-ray parameters, such as peak. flux, integral flux, ratio of peak flux to the increasing time, maximum X-ray photon energy and duration time, are very notable, shile they are ambiguous for non-proton flares. Based on the different behaviours between proton and non-proton flares, as a testing it is tried to warn solar proton events (1980.2-1986.2) by using the method of the fuzzy clustering analysis. The testing results show that this new method is very feasible. Accurate warning rate is 88.5%, false warning rate is 53.1%.