共查询到15条相似文献,搜索用时 156 毫秒
1.
2.
3.
4.
空间碎片的碰撞预警与规避能有效避免碰撞事件的发生.碰撞概率是碰撞预警的主要判据,也是航天器规避机动决策的主要依据.由于计算碰撞概率的各相关参数带有误差,导致计算得到的碰撞概率值并不准确,难以做出规避机动决策,因此评估碰撞概率值的可信程度是亟需解决的问题.本文给出了一种碰撞概率置信度的计算方法,利用各影响参数的标准差,通过误差传递的方法计算碰撞概率的标准差,结合单边Chebyshev不等式,给出碰撞概率值大于10-4阈值时的置信度,并结合实际案例进行了分析. 相似文献
5.
6.
7.
基于拉普拉斯变换的空间目标碰撞概率计算方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
碰撞概率是空间碎片碰撞预警中评判碰撞发生可能性大小的重要依据,对航天器机动规避具有重要意义。基于拉普拉斯变换的碰撞概率计算方法利用拉普拉斯变换以及幂级数的定义,推导了在短时间接近情况下碰撞概率的幂级数表达式,分析了碰撞概率的截断误差并确定了在不同精度要求下的幂级数项数。针对2009年美俄卫星的碰撞事件,将基于拉普拉斯变换的碰撞概率计算结果与Chan方法、Monte Carlo方法的计算结果进行比较,验证了基于拉普拉斯变换方法在计算精度上的优势。 相似文献
8.
9.
空间在轨物体的轨道异常是航天工程及预警领域普遍关注的问题,及时发现轨道异常意义重大,通过分析空间物体的轨道异常,可以及时发现和识别规避事件或碰撞事件,还可以了解监测网的能力.本文提出一种基于TLE数据的简单的轨道异常分析方法——长半轴变化法.该方法快速有效,应用到低轨在用卫星和美俄解体碎片的异常分析中,异常物体正确识别率可达到100%;对美俄解体碎片进行轨道异常分析后得出,美国空间监视网可以稳定探测90%以上的解体碎片. 相似文献
10.
11.
快速准确地分析空间碎片群轨道演化行为对于其他在轨航天器碰撞规避至关重要。在各摄动力的作用下,空间碎片群演化运动呈现出复杂的非线性特征。空间碎片群体个体数量巨大,如果通过对空间碎片群中每个空间碎片进行轨道积分来分析群体预报的方法会导致计算量过大。针对该问题,提出一种基于多项式近似的轨道快速预报分析方法。该方法将空间碎片群分为少量的标称碎片和其他大量关联碎片。针对标称碎片的轨道预报采用数值积分求解保证预报精度;而针对其他大量的关联碎片轨道预报问题,采用多项式泰勒展开半解析方法求解,从而在保证预报精度的前提下有效减少空间碎片群轨道预报的计算量。为了验证方法的有效性,对不同空间碎片群进行了轨道预报仿真。仿真结果表明,当轨道预报精度设定在1m范围内时,多项式近似算法的计算量较蒙特卡洛方法计算效率提高了2.2~17.2倍,验证了所提出方法的有效性。 相似文献
12.
Improved orbit predictions using two-line elements 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Creon Levit William Marshall 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2011
The density of orbital space debris constitutes an increasing environmental challenge. There are two ways to alleviate the problem: debris mitigation and debris removal. This paper addresses collision avoidance, a key aspect of debris mitigation. We describe a method that contributes to achieving a requisite increase in orbit prediction accuracy for objects in the publicly available two-line element (TLE) catalog. Batch least-squares differential correction is applied to the TLEs. Using a high-precision numerical propagator, we fit an orbit to state vectors derived from successive TLEs. We then propagate the fitted orbit further forward in time. These predictions are validated against precision ephemeris data derived from the international laser ranging service (ILRS) for several satellites, including objects in the congested sun-synchronous orbital region. The method leads to a predicted range error that increases at a typical rate of 100 m per day, approximately a 10-fold improvement over individual TLE’s propagated with their associated analytic propagator (SGP4). Corresponding improvements for debris trajectories could potentially provide conjunction analysis sufficiently accurate for an operationally viable collision avoidance system based on TLEs only. 相似文献
13.
及时准确地发现在轨卫星的轨道异常意义重大. 通过有效的异常算法, 能够找出发生轨道异常的碎片或航天器, 为空间碎片碰撞预警系统分析和验证碰撞事件提供数据支持. 通过对利用TLE (Two Line Elements)数据分析LEO在轨卫星轨道异常的方法研究, 提出了一个利用单个卫星相邻根数时间差控制加综合判据的判别方法. 分析表明, 相对于取单一因素阈值的判别方法, 综合判据法能够最大限度地减少漏判, 并且保持相对较高的判断准确率. 相似文献
14.
15.
D. Rex J. Bendisch P. Eichler J. Zhang 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》1991,11(12):53-62
The paper gives an overview on the fields of debris research performed at the TUBS. The orbital debris flux of all objects larger than 1cm has been established and simulated by a mathematical model in the past mainly on the basis of simulating explosion fragments. However the flux in the millimeter and submillimeter size range seems to be largely influenced by collisions and their ejecta on high circular or on eccentric orbits. The angular distribution of the impact flux on targets at various altitudes and on various inclinations are presented. This angular distribution has also influence on the surface impact flux on a space station, where also the self shielding has to be considered. Results for the ISS are presented. The risk of impacts of larger not shieldable objects on a space station may become too high, so that collision avoidance manoeuvres must be envisaged, the feasibility of which using onboard detectors is discussed. 相似文献