Towards a new reference model of hmF2 for IRI

A numerical model of the peak height of the F2 layer, hmF2_top, is derived from the topside sounding database of 90,000 electron density profiles for a representative set of conditions provided by ISIS1, ISIS2, IK19 and Cosmos-1809 satellites for the period of 1969–1987. The model of regular hmF2 variations is produced in terms of local time, season, geomagnetic latitude, geodetic longitude and solar radio flux. No geomagnetic activity trends were discernible in the topside sounding data. The nighttime peak of hmF2_top evident for mid-latitudes disappears near the geomagnetic equator where a maximum of hmF2_top occurs at sunset hours when it can exceed 500 km at solar maximum. The hmF2 given by the IRI exceeds hmF2_top at the low solar activities. The hmF2_top, obtained by extrapolation of the first derivative of the topside profile to zero shows saturation similar to foF2 the greater the solar activity. The proposed model differs from hmF2 given by IRI based on M(3000)F2 to hmF2 conversion by empirical relationships in terms of foF2, foE and R12 with these quantities mapped globally by the ITU-R (former CCIR) from ground-based ionosonde data. The differences can be attributed to the different techniques of the peak height derivation, different epochs and different global distribution of the source data as well as the different mathematical functions involved in the maps and the model presentation.     

Hemispheric,seasonal and latitudinal dependence of storm-time ionosphere during low solar activity period

Analysis of the seasonal, hemispheric and latitudinal variation of the ionospheric F2 peak during periods of disturbed geomagnetic conditions in 2011, a year of low solar activity, had been studied using hourly data obtained from low- and mid-latitude ionosonde stations. Our results showed an enhancement in F2-layer maximum electron density (NmF2) at daytime over low latitudes. For the mid-latitude stations, NmF2 depletion pre-dominates the daytime and overturned at nighttime. In general, the variation in terms of magnitude is higher in the low-latitude than at mid-latitude. The nighttime decrease in NmF2 is accompanied by a corresponding F2 peak height (hmF2) increase and overturned at daytime. The hmF2 response during the equinoctial months is lower than the solstices. NmF2 shows distinct seasonal, hemispheric and latitudinal dependence in its response. Appearance of a significant ionospheric effect in southern hemisphere is higher than in the northern hemisphere, and is more pronounced in the equinoxes at low latitudes. At mid-latitudes, the ionospheric effect is insignificant at both hemispheres. A negative ionospheric response dominates the whole seasons at the mid-latitude except for March equinox. The reverse is the case for the hmF2 observation. The amplitudes of both the NmF2 and hmF2 increase with increasing latitude and maximize in the southern hemisphere in terms of longitude.     

Linkage of the ionospheric peak electron density and height deduced from the topside sounding data

Topside sounding electron density profiles are analyzed to explore interrelations of the F2 layer critical frequency and the peak height for a representative set of conditions provided by ISIS1, ISIS2, IK19 and Cosmos-1809 satellites for the period of 1969–1987. The foF2 and hmF2 are delivered with exponential extrapolation of electron density profile to zero of its 1st derivative. It is shown that the linear regression exists between foF2 and hmF2 under different conditions. The linkage between the two parameters amended to the empirical model of the peak height [Gulyaeva, T.L., Bradley, P.A., Stanislawska, I., Juchnikowski, G. Towards a new reference model of hmF2 for IRI. Adv. Space Res. 42, 666–672, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2008.02.021, 2008] results in an empirical model of the both foF2 and hmF2 expressed by superposition of functions in terms of local-time, season, geodetic longitude, modified dip latitude and solar activity. For the solar activity we use a proxy Fsp index averaged from the mean solar radio flux F10.7s for the past 81 days (3 solar rotations) and F10.7 value for 1 day prior the day of observation. Impact of geomagnetic activity is not discernible with the topside sounding data due to mixed positive and negative storm-time effects. Appreciable differences have been revealed between IRI-CCIR predictions and outcome of the new model which might be attributed to the different techniques of the peak electron density and height derivation, different epochs and different global distribution of the source data as well as the different mathematical functions involved in the maps and the model presentation.     

The quiet nighttime low-latitude ionosphere as observed by TIMED/GUVI

In this paper, we examine the nighttime ionosphere climatology structure in the low latitude region and discrepancies between Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) observations and the IRI model predictions using (1) the magnetic zonal mean of electron number density as a function of altitude and magnetic latitude, (2) vertical electron density profiles at various levels of F10.7 index, (3) nighttime descent and magnitude decrease of the ionosphere, (4) point-to-point comparisons of F-peak height (hmF2) and density (NmF2), and (5) the magnetic longitudinal variations of hmF2 and NmF2. The data collected from the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission since its launch in December 2001 have provided great opportunities for many scientific investigations of the ionosphere. In this analysis, we investigate the climatology of the nighttime low-latitude ionosphere under low geomagnetic activity (kp ? 4) using the electron density profiles inferred from the airglow measurements obtained by the GUVI aboard the TIMED spacecraft and compared with the results obtained from IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model-2001. The observed climatology is an essential tool for further understanding the electrodynamics in the low-latitude region and improving the model’s prediction capability. The time range of the GUVI data used in this study is from 2002 (day 053) to 2006 (day 304), and the IRI model predictions were produced at every GUVI location. The ionosphere observed is generally of greater density than what IRI predicts throughout the night for all four seasons for low and moderate solar activity while the model over-predicts the electron density near the F-region peak at high solar activity before midnight. Observations show that the height of the F-region peak has a steep descent from dusk to midnight and near midnight the height of layer is insensitive to solar conditions, significantly different than what is predicted by IRI. Longitudinal features shown in GUVI data are present in the low-latitude ionosphere after sunset and continue through to midnight after which the low-latitude ionosphere is largely zonally symmetric.     

Parameterized Regional Ionospheric Model and a comparison of its results with experimental data and IRI representations

We describe a Parameterized Regional Ionospheric Model (PARIM) to calculate the spatial and temporal variations of the ionospheric electron density/plasma frequency over the Brazilian sector. The ionospheric plasma frequency values as calculated from an enhanced Sheffield University Plasmasphere–Ionosphere Model (SUPIM) were used to construct the model. PARIM is a time-independent 3D regional model (altitude, longitude/local time, latitude) used to reproduce SUPIM plasma frequencies for geomagnetic quiet condition, for any day of the year and for low to moderately high solar activity. The procedure to obtain the modeled representation uses finite Fourier series so that all plasma frequency dependencies can be represented by Fourier coefficients. PARIM presents very good results, except for the F region peak height (hmF2) near the geomagnetic equator during times of occurrence of the F₃ layer. The plasma frequency calculated by IRI from E region to bottomside of the F region present latitudinal discontinuities during morning and evening times for both solar minimum and solar maximum conditions. Both the results of PARIM and the IRI for the E region peak density show excellent agreement with the observational values obtained during the conjugate point equatorial experiment (COPEX) campaign. The IRI representations significantly underestimate the foF2 and hmF2 compared to the observational results over the COPEX sites, mainly during the evening–nighttime period.     

Comparison between ionospheric peak parameters retrieved from COSMIC measurement and ionosonde observation over Sanya

In this paper we compared the ionospheric peak parameters (peak electron density of the F region, NmF2, and peak height of the F region, hmF2) retrieved from the FORMASAT-3/COSMIC (COSMIC for short) satellite measurement with those from ionosonde observation at Sanya (18.3°N, 109.6°E) during the period of 2008–2013. Although COSMIC NmF2 (hmF2) tends to be lower (higher) than ionosonde NmF2 (hmF2), the results show that the ionospheric peak parameters retrieved from COSMIC measurement generally agree well with ionosonde observation. For NmF2 the correlation between the COSMIC measurement and the ionosonde observation is higher than 0.89, and for hmF2 the correlation is higher than 0.80. The correlation of the ionospheric peak parameters decreases when solar activity increases. The performance of COSMIC measurement is acceptable under geomagnetic disturbed condition. The correlation of NmF2 between COSMIC and ionosonde measurements is higher (lower) during the nighttime (daytime), while the correlation of hmF2 is lower (higher) during the nighttime (daytime).     

Reconstruction of topside density profile by using the topside sounder model profiler and digisonde data

To improve the accuracy of the real time topside electron density profiles given by the Digisonde software a new model-assisted technique is used. This technique uses the Topside Sounder Model (TSM), which provides the plasma scale height (H_s), O⁺–H⁺ transition height (H_T), and their ratio Rt = H_s/H_T, derived from topside sounder data of Alouette and ISIS satellites. The Topside Sounder Model Profiler (TSMP) incorporates TSM and uses the model quantities as anchor points in construction of topside density (Ne) profiles. For any particular location, TSMP calculates topside Ne profiles by specifying the values of foF2 and hmF2. In the present version, TSMP takes the F2 peak characteristics – foF2, hmF2, and the scale height at hmF2 – from the Digisonde measurements. The paper shows results for the Digisonde stations Athens and Juliusruh. It is found that the topside scale height used in Digisonde reconstruction is less than that extracted from topside sounder profiles. Rough comparison of their bulk distributions showed that they differ by an average factor of 1.25 for locations of Athens and Juliusruh. When the Digisonde scale heights are adjusted by this factor, the reconstructed topside profiles are close to those provided by TSM. Compared with CHAMP reconstruction profiles in two cases, TSMP/Digisonde profiles show lower density between 400 and 2000 km.     

Initial results of the evaluation of IRI hmF2 performance for minima 22–23 and 23–24

The performance of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) in predicting the height of the maximum of electron density (hmF2) has been evaluated for similar geomagnetic latitudes stations in the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH), and for the last two minima. As truth-sites, the digisonde stations of Millstone Hill (42.6°N, 288.5°E), USA, and Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), South Africa, were considered. A monthly averaged diurnal variation was obtained from all the observations and model output in the months studied, and the corresponding difference was also calculated. For this initial study data from summer and winter in the NH and SH were selected for the solstice comparison, and October data for both stations were used to represent equinox conditions. The choice of these periods depended on data availability and quality. The results show that for the earlier minimum in 1996, in general IRI hmF2 values are in reasonable agreement with the observations. The exceptions are October and December in the SH, where IRI hmF2 tends to high, particularly on the dayside, and also July for which the daytime measured values tend to be larger than the IRI ones. For the recent minimum in 2008, IRI tends to over-estimate the hmF2 in most of the observations. The results support the general assertion that thermospheric temperatures were cooler during the last solar minimum as a consequence of an unusually low, and extended, minimum in solar extreme-ultraviolet flux, and in response to continually increasing long-term trend in anthropogenic carbon dioxide. The cooler temperatures not only decrease density at a fixed height, but also make the corresponding contraction of the atmosphere lower the height of the F-region peak.     

Longitudinal differences in the equatorial spread F characteristics between Vietnam and Brazil

We present the results of a comparative study of the equatorial spread F (ESF) and the F layer critical parameter, the base height of the F layer bottomside (h′F) over the two equatorial sites, Ho Chi Minh City – HCM (dip latitude: 2.9°N) in Vietnam and Sao Luis – SL (dip latitude: ∼2°S) in Brazil. The study utilizes simultaneous data collected by a CADI at HCM and a digisonde at SL during the year 2002 with the monthly mean solar 10.7 cm flux (F10.7) varying from ∼120 to ∼185. This study focuses on the quiet time seasonal behavior of the F layer parameters in the two widely separated longitude sectors, and addresses the question as to what can we learn from such comparative studies with respect to the ambient ionospheric and thermospheric parameters that are believed to control the ESF generation and hence its longitudinal occurrence pattern. The observed differences/similarities in the diurnal and seasonal patterns of the F Layer height vis-à-vis the ESF occurrences are evaluated in terms of the known longitudinal differences in the F layer heights, thermospheric meridional winds and the geomagnetic peculiarities of the two sites.     

磁暴期间中纬度电离层剖面结构变化的数值模拟

利用电离层理论模型模拟了磁暴期间热层大气温度、成分、中性风和电场扰动对电离层电子密度剖面结构，特别是峰值密度和峰值高度变化的影响，结果表明，热层大气温度变化所引起光化反应系数的改变对电离层剖面结构影响不大；热层大气成分特别是Ｎ２／Ｏ的变化能有效地引起密度剖面变化，Ｎ２增加足以使峰值密度产生所观测到的负相暴；由中性风和电场引起等离子体漂移是峰值高度ｈｍＦ２变化的主要原因，但对电子密度的影响不足以抵消     

Comparison of ionospheric F2 peak parameters foF2 and hmF2 with IRI2001 at Hainan

Monthly median values of foF2, hmF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters, with quarter-hourly time interval resolution for the diurnal variation, obtained with DPS4 digisonde at Hainan (19.5°N, 109.1°E; Geomagnetic coordinates: 178.95°E, 8.1°N) are used to investigate the low-latitude ionospheric variations and comparisons with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predictions. The data used for the present study covers the period from February 2002 to April 2007, which is characterized by a wide range of solar activity, ranging from high solar activity (2002) to low solar activity (2007). The results show that (1) Generally, IRI predictions follow well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the experimental values of foF2, especially in the summer of 2002. However, there are systematic deviation between experimental values and IRI predictions with either CCIR or URSI coefficients. Generally IRI model greatly underestimate the values of foF2 from about noon to sunrise of next day, especially in the afternoon, and slightly overestimate them from sunrise to about noon. It seems that there are bigger deviations between IRI Model predictions and the experimental observations for the moderate solar activity. (2) Generally the IRI-predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(3000)F2 option shows a poor agreement with the experimental results, but there is a relatively good agreement in summer at low solar activity. The deviation between the IRI-predicted hmF2 using CCIR M(3000)F2 and observed hmF2 is bigger from noon to sunset and around sunrise especially at high solar activity. The occurrence time of hmF2 peak (about 1200 LT) of the IRI model predictions is earlier than that of observations (around 1500 LT). The agreement between the IRI hmF2 obtained with the measured M(3000)F2 and the observed hmF2 is very good except that IRI overestimates slightly hmF2 in the daytime in summer at high solar activity and underestimates it in the nighttime with lower values near sunrise at low solar activity.     

Ionospheric disturbances under low solar activity conditions

The paper is focused on ionospheric response to occasional magnetic disturbances above selected ionospheric stations located at middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere under extremely low solar activity conditions of 2007–2009. We analyzed changes in the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the F2 layer peak height hmF2 against 27-days running mean obtained for different longitudinal sectors of both hemispheres for the initial, main and recovery phases of selected magnetic disturbances. Our analysis showed that the effects on the middle latitude ionosphere of weak-to-moderate CIR-related magnetic storms, which mostly occur around solar minimum period, could be comparable with the effects of strong magnetic storms. In general, both positive and negative deviations of foF2 and hmF2 have been observed independent on season and location. However positive effects on foF2 prevailed and were more significant. Observations of stormy ionosphere also showed large departures from the climatology within storm recovery phase, which are comparable with those usually observed during the storm main phase. The IRI STORM model gave no reliable corrections of foF2 for analyzed events.     

Vertical plasma transport in the ionosphere over Irkutsk during St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic storm: Observations and modeling

The St. Patrick’s Day storm being the strongest geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 24 caused strong changes in ionospheric and thermospheric dynamics. The paper presents a study of vertical plasma transport in the ionosphere during the St. Patrick’s Day storm with using both observations and modeling. The observations give the ionospheric peak height obtained with the chirp vertical sounding ionosonde and the neutral wind velocities obtained with the Fabry-Perot interferometer. The ionospheric peak height is an indicator of the total vertical plasma transport, while meridional wind and electromagnetic drift are the two main drivers of the vertical plasma transport. The Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere used in this study gives the total set of ionospheric and thermospheric parameters including F2-layer peak height, neutral wind velocities, electric field, and neutral composition. The model/data comparison allows us to obtain two main results. The first one is an estimation of the model prediction possibilities under storm conditions. The second result is an indirect assessment of the neutral wind and electric field contribution into the changes in the ionospheric peak height in the case of the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic storm.     

Variation of hmF2 and NmF2 deduced from DPS-4 over Multan (Pakistan) and their comparisons with IRI-2012 & IRI-2016 during the deep solar minimum between cycles 23 & 24

We report the results of ionospheric measurements from DPS-4 installed at Multan (Geog coord. 30.18°N, 71.48°E, dip 47.4°). The variations in F2-layer maximum electron density NmF2 and its peak height hmF2 are studied during the deep solar minimum between cycles 23 & 24 i.e 2008–2009 with comparisons conducted with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) versions 2012 & 2016. We find that the hmF2 observations peak around the pre-sunrise and sunrise hours depending on the month. Seasonally, the daytime variation of NmF2 is higher in the Equinox and Summer, while daytime hmF2 are slightly higher in the Equinox and Winter. High values of hmF2 around midnight are caused by an increase of upward drifts produced by meridional winds. The ionosphere over Multan, which lies at the verge of low and mid latitude, is affected by both $E\times B$ drifts and thermospheric winds as evident from mid-night peaks and near-sunrise dips in hmF2. The results of the comparison of the observed NmF2 and hmF2 for the year 2008–2009 with the IRI-2012 (both NmF2 and hmF2) and IRI-2016 (only hmF2) estimates indicate that for NmF2, IRI-2012 with Consultative Committee International Radio (CCIR) option produces values in better agreement with observed data. Whereas, for hmF2, IRI-2016 with both International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and CCIR SHU-2015 options, predicts well for nighttime hours throughout the year. However, the IRI-2012 with CCIR option produces better agreement with data during daytime hours. Furthermore, IRI-2012 with CCIR option gives better results during Equinox months, whereas, IRI-2016 with both URSI and CCIR SHU-2015 options predict well for Winter and Summer.     

Effects of TADs on the F region of the mid-latitude ionosphere during an intense geomagnetic storm

Based on observations of two ionosondes at Wuhan and Kokubunji, this paper presents effects of TADs on the daytime mid-latitude ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storm on March 31, 2001. During a positive ionospheric storm, the start of the enhancement of the foF2 (F2 peak plasma frequency) at Wuhan lags that at Kokubunji by 15 min, which corresponds to the time interval of traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs’) propagation from Kokubunji to Wuhan. Associated with the uplifting of the hmF2 (height of F2 peak) caused by TADs, it is observed by the two ionosondes that the F1 cusp becomes better developed. Therefore, during a geomagnetic storm, TADs originating from the auroral oval may have a strong influence on the shape of the electron density profile in the F1 region ionosphere at middle latitudes. It is highly likely that TADs are responsible for the evolution of the F1 cusp.     

Variability of the ionosphere over Irkutsk at low solar activity

Statistical and spectral analyses are performed to investigate variations of two ionosphere F2 layer key parameters, the critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2), that were measured over Irkutsk (52.5°N, 104.0°E) from December 2006 to January 2008 under solar minimum. The analyses showed that both parameters contain quasi-harmonic oscillations with periods of T_n = 24/n hours (n = 1–7), among which the diurnal (n = 1) and semidiurnal (n = 2) ones are the strongest. Seasonal variations are explored of mean and median values, spectrum, amplitude, and phase of the diurnal and semidiurnal components of foF2 and hmF2.     

Low latitude nighttime ionospheric vertical E × B drifts at African region

The nighttime vertical E × B drifts velocities of the F2-region were inferred from the hourly hmF2 values obtained from ionosonde data over an African equatorial station, Ilorin (8.50^oN, 4.68^oE; dip lat. 2.95^o) during period of low solar activity. For each season, the plasma drift Vz is characterized by an evening upward enhancement, then by a downward reversal at 1900 LT till around 0000 LT, except for June solstice. This was explained using the Rayleigh–Taylor (R-T) instability mechanism. The occasional drift differences in Vz obtained by inferred and direct measurement over Ilorin and Jicamarca, respectively are reflective of the importance of chemistry and divergent transport system due to both the E region electric and magnetic fields instead of simple motions. The pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) magnitude is higher during the equinoctial months than the solsticial months over Jicamarca, highest during December solstice and the equinoctial months over Ilorin, suggesting the dominance of higher E × B fountain during equinoxes at both stations. The lowest PRE magnitude was in June solstice. The appearance of post-noon peak in NmF2 around 1700 LT is highest during the equinoctial months and lowest during the solsticial period. A general sharp drop in NmF2 around 1800 LT is distinct immediately after sunset, lowest during June solstice and highest in March equinox. Our result suggests that between 0930 and 2100 LT, the general theory that vertical drifts obtained by digisonde measurements only match the E × B drift if the F layer is higher than 300 km is reliable, but does not hold for the nighttime period of 2200–0600 LT under condition of solar minima. Hence, the condition may not be sufficient for the representation of vertical plasma drift at nighttime during solar minima. This assertion may still be tentative, as more equatorial stations needed to be studied for better confirmation.     

Effects observed in the equatorial and low latitude ionospheric F-region in the Brazilian sector during low solar activity geomagnetic storms and comparison with the COSMIC measurements

The main objective of the present investigation has been to compare the ionospheric parameters (NmF2 and hmF2) observed by two ground-based ionospheric sounders (one at PALMAS- located near the magnetic equator and the other at Sao Jose dos Campos-located in the low-latitude region) in the Brazilian sector with that by the satellite FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultation (RO) measurements during two geomagnetic storms which occurred in December 2006 and July 2009. It should be pointed out that in spite of increasing the latitude (to 10°) and longitude (to 20°) around the stations; we had very few common observations. It has been observed that both the peak electron density (NmF2) and peak height (hmF2) observed by two different techniques (space-borne COSMIC and ground-based ionosondes) during both the geomagnetic storm events compares fairly well (with high correlation coefficients) at the two stations in the Brazilian sector. It should be pointed out that due to equatorial spread F (ESF) in the first storm (December 2006) and no-reflections from the ionosphere during nighttime in the second storm (July 2009), we had virtually daytime data from the two ionosondes.     

Recent advances in upper atmospheric structure

A possible quantitative explanation of the semi-annual variation in thermospheric density has been obtained in terms of a semi-annual variation in the computed globally averaged vertical energy carried by propagating tides from the lower and middle atmosphere into the thermosphere. The effect is primarily due to seasonal changes in the distribution of water vapor and in the solar declination angle and Sun-Earth distance. An MSIS-83 empirical model of the thermosphere, representing a revision of the earlier MSIS models, has been prepared. The database used covers a wider range of solar activity than previous models and an improved magnetic storm representation is included. Atomic oxygen profiles in the 100 to 160 km altitude region of the auroral thermosphere have been recalculated from measured quenching of N₂(A³∑_u⁺) using the latest laboratory rates and the results are in good agreement with the mean CIRA 1972 profile. A new empirical model of thermospheric variations with geomagnetic activity has been developed incorporating variations with local magnetic time, latitude dependent terms which can vary with the magnitude of the geomagnetic disturbance, and an altitude dependent expression for the equatorial wave. A new index ML, derived from the AL index, has been developed that appears to have promise to represent the variations of thermospheric species with geomagnetic activity. Satellite measured values of solar UV flux, ground-based observations of CaK plages, sunspot numbers and 10.7 cm solar radio flux have been analyzed for temporal variations. Some differences have been identified and the significance to empirical and theoretical upper atmosphere models is discussed.     

基于卫星加速度数据反演的热层大气密度与NRLMSISE-00模式结果的比较研究

利用CHAMP/STAR加速度数据反演的热层大气密度与NRLMSISE-00模式反演的热层大气密度进行比较, 结果表明, 热层大气密度在春秋季期间高于冬夏季, 并且太阳活动高年比低年更加显著; 日照面和阴影区大气密度的比值在低纬地区由太阳活动高年的4下降到太阳活动低年的2左右, 中纬地区大约由3变化到1.5, 高纬地区变化较小; NRLMSISE-00模式能够较好地模拟热层大气密度的变化趋势, 但是磁暴期间模式精度较差. 统计结果表明, 模式整体比反演结果偏高, 2002-2008年相对偏差分别为16.512%, 20.004%, 18.915%, 18.245%, 25.161%, 33.261%和41.980%; NRLMSISE-00模式在高纬地区的相对偏差为27.337%, 高于中低纬地区的24.047%; 模式在中等太阳活动水平相对偏差较为稳定, 基本在15%左右.