不完全区间数据最佳线性无偏估计方法

建立了不完全区间数据秩统计量的概率密度函数和联合概率密度函数, 给出了其平均秩、中位秩和百分位秩以及不完全区间数据统计量的均值、方差和协方差计算公式.在此基础上, 针对位置-尺度分布族提出一种不完全区间数据最佳线性无偏估计方法, 得到了其百分位值的置信限估计, 并对工程中常见的极值分布、两参数Weibull分布、正态分布进行了详细讨论.      

常用脉冲重复间隔估计算法

雷达信号分选是电子战系统(EW)与反辐射导弹(ARM)的关键技术,脉冲重复间隔(PRI)是信号分选与识别的一个重要参数,它决定了雷达的最大无模糊距离和最大无模糊径向速度。目前以脉冲序列的自相关函数为基础,利用脉冲到达时间(TOA)提出了多种脉冲重复间隔估计算法。本文介绍了几种常用算法的原理,讨论了各算法的缺陷,并给出了PRI变换应用于抖动PRI序列时的计算机仿真结果。最后分析了各种算法的性能与适用范围。     

复合材料层合板屈曲载荷计算的区间分析算法

提出了求解具有不确定性复合材料层合板屈曲载荷的一种处理方法———区间分析法。区间分析法是基于区间数学和泰勒展开的一种处理不确定性的方法。区间分析法不需要知道不确定变量的概率统计特性,只要较少的材料物理特性信息,即不确定变量的上界和下界,加上较简单的计算就可以得出结构响应的变化区间。在样本比较小,概率统计特性不明显,从而通常的概率统计方法不能有效应用时,区间分析仍然有效。文中针对四边简支的特殊正交层合板以及反对称角铺设层合板的屈曲载荷,用概率算法和区间算法分别进行了计算与比较。     

Improved multilevel quantization for detection of narrowbandsignals

Nearly optimum quantization levels for multileveled quantizers in radar receivers and distributed-detection are calculated for preassigned false-alarm probability Q₀ by maximizing the detection probability Q_d after replacing both Q ₀ and (1-Q_d) by the saddlepoint approximations. Narrowband signals of random phase and with both fixed and Rayleigh-fading amplitudes in Gaussian noise are treated, and the loss in signal detectability incurred by quantization is estimated     

Hybrid uncertainty-based design optimization and its application to hybrid rocket motors for manned lunar landing

Design reliability and robustness are getting increasingly important for the general design of aerospace systems with many inherently uncertain design parameters. This paper presents a hybrid uncertainty-based design optimization (UDO) method developed from probability theory and interval theory. Most of the uncertain design parameters which have sufficient information or experimental data are classified as random variables using probability theory, while the others are defined as interval variables with interval theory. Then a hybrid uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation and Taylor series interval analysis is developed to obtain the uncer-tainty propagation from the design parameters to system responses. Three design optimization strategies, including deterministic design optimization (DDO), probabilistic UDO and hybrid UDO, are applied to the conceptual design of a hybrid rocket motor (HRM) used as the ascent propulsion system in Apollo lunar module. By comparison, the hybrid UDO is a feasible method and can be effectively applied to the general design of aerospace systems.     

Frequency-hopping signal detection using partial band coverage

The performance of a channelized radiometer in detecting a frequency-hopping signal is analyzed for a variable number of parallel radiometers not necessarily covering the entire hopping band. The full band may not be covered because of an attempt to avoid interfering signals, limited radiometer resources, lack of knowledge of the band frequency location, or combinations of these factors. The analysis provides for calculation of the value of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) required to achieve a given probability of detection for a specified false-alarm rate, assuming an observation interval equivalent to N hops using either a fixed or a moving observation window. The dependence of the probability of detection on a misalignment of the detector observation intervals with the hop transitions is also analyzed. Numerical results are presented and discussed. Applied to a typical slow-hopping VHF radio, the results imply that a 150-hop transmission can be detected by a channelized radiometer covering half the hopping band when the SNR is about 2 dB     

一种改进的双重频退速度模糊方法

本文分析了双重复频率退模糊方法的局限性和误差成因,提出了一种统计求解方法进行速度退模糊.此方法同传统方法的差异在于,其首先对Nyquist数进行估计,再进行退模糊处理.理想实验和在中频相参多普勒天气雷达上的实际结果分析均表明,改进的方法具有更好的解速度模糊性能,且具有较高的实效性.     

Leading Edge Estimation Errors

The leading edge estimator (LEE) of a pulse signal is defined as the instant at which a filtered version of the received noisy signal passes a preset threshold. A rigorous analysis for a rectangular pulse model of the signal results in an exact probability density function for the LEE, valid within the time interval of the leading edge of the filtered pulse. Possible occurrence of the threshold crossing outside of this interval is considered to be an anomalous estimate, since it leads to a gross error in comparison with the regular cases. It is found that the density function of the LEE error is asymmetrical and therefore biased, that the probability PA of anomalous estimation increases with the filter bandwidth, thus setting a well definable limit to the latter and that, for prespecified PA, the minimum bias and variance are proportional, respectively, to R-1 and R-2, minima being obtained by allowing for the largest bandwidth compatible with PA. On the other hand, for given bandwidth the variance decreases only as R-1. Here R is the signal-to-noise energy ratio. Results are presented in form of parameterized graphs.     

用自助加权范数法评估三参数威布尔分布可靠性最优置信区间

提出自助加权范数法,以评估三参数威布尔分布可靠性的最优置信区间.基于可靠性经验值与理论值的差异,通过6个最小加权范数准则,构建出威布尔分布的最优参数信息向量.对最优参数信息向量进行自助再抽样,获得生成参数信息向量,用于模拟参数的概率密度函数.在给定置信水平下,求解出参数的估计真值及其置信区间,并据此建立可靠性的估计真值函数及其最优置信区间函数.滚动轴承性能寿命案例、直升机部件失效案例与某试件疲劳寿命案例的研究表明:使用自助加权范数法,估计真值函数与可靠性经验值相一致,最优置信区间函数能描述试验结果的真实状态.      

机动多目标跟踪问题中关联区域的研究

 本文研究了跟踪多个机动目标时,由滤波算法所获得的新息向量范数的统计性质,关联区域的大小以及接收正确回波的概率。借助拉蒙特卡洛方法,考察了不同的目标状态模型、目标机动加速度及状态噪声方差等因素对所研究的问题的影响。研究表明,文献[1]所提出的机动目标状态模型及相应的自适应算法具有较好的适应目标机动的能力,关联区域的大小及接收正确回波的概率均较为稳定。     

New assignment-based data association for tracking move-stop-move targets

We present a new assignment-based algorithm for data association in tracking ground targets employing evasive move-stop-move maneuvers using ground moving target indicator (GMTI) reports obtained from an airborne sensor. To avoid detection by the GMTI sensor, the targets deliberately stop for some time before moving again. The sensor does not detect a target when the latter's radial velocity (along the line-of-sight from the sensor) falls below a certain minimum detectable velocity (MDV). Even in the absence of move-stop-move maneuvers, the detection has a less-than-unity probability (P/sub D/<1) due to obscuration and thresholding. Then, it is of interest, when a target is not detected, to develop a systematic technique that can distinguish between lack of detection due to P/sub D/<1 and lack of detection due to a stop (or a near stop). Previously, this problem was solved using a variable structure interacting multiple model (VS-IMM) estimator with a stopped target model (VS-IMM-ST) without explicitly addressing data association. We develop a novel "two-dummy" assignment approach for move-stop-move targets that considers both the problem of data association as well as filtering. Typically, in assignment-based data association a "dummy" measurement is used to denote the nondetection event. The use of the standard single-dummy assignment, which does not handle move-stop-move motion explicitly, can result in broken tracks. The new algorithm proposed here handles the evasive move-stop-move motion by introducing a second dummy measurement to represent nondetection due to the MDV. We also present a likelihood-ratio-based track deletion scheme for move-stop-move targets. Using this two-dummy data association algorithm, the track corresponding to a move-stop-move target is kept "alive' during missed detections both due to MDV and due to P/sub D/<1. In addition, one can obtain reductions in both rms estimation errors as well as the total number of track breakages.     

Optimum Position Estimation Using Multiple-Frequency Omega

The maximum-likelihood estimator of the line of position (LOP) resulting from K frequencies received from each of two Omega stations for high SNR is derived. The estimator takes advantage of interfrequency correlation of phase uncertainties by modeling them as resulting from phase velocity uncertainties which are jointly Gaussian with known covariance. The utilization of Omega for search and rescue systems is examined. For this application, the result of increasing the size of the unambiguous lanes of Omega by addition of a fourth frequency to the present three-frequency format is examined. The results of Monte Carlo simulation, performed for several easily implemented fourth frequencies, are presented. The simulation results illustrate the extent to which lane errors can be expected as a function of various fourth frequencies, phase velocity uncertainties, and SNR.     

Testability evaluation using prior information of multiple sources

Testability plays an important role in improving the readiness and decreasing the lifecycle cost of equipment. Testability demonstration and evaluation is of significance in measuring such testability indexes as fault detection rate（FDR） and fault isolation rate（FIR）, which is useful to the producer in mastering the testability level and improving the testability design, and helpful to the consumer in making purchase decisions. Aiming at the problems with a small sample of testability demonstration test data（TDTD） such as low evaluation confidence and inaccurate result, a testability evaluation method is proposed based on the prior information of multiple sources and Bayes theory. Firstly, the types of prior information are analyzed. The maximum entropy method is applied to the prior information with the mean and interval estimate forms on the testability index to obtain the parameters of prior probability density function（PDF）, and the empirical Bayesian method is used to get the parameters for the prior information with a success-fail form. Then, a parametrical data consistency check method is used to check the compatibility between all the sources of prior information and TDTD. For the prior information to pass the check, the prior credibility is calculated. A mixed prior distribution is formed based on the prior PDFs and the corresponding credibility. The Bayesian posterior distribution model is acquired with the mixed prior distribution and TDTD, based on which the point and interval estimates are calculated.Finally, examples of a flying control system are used to verify the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.     

民机复合材料典型结构件检修间隔的概率分析

民机复合材料结构在服役过程中的损伤主要来源于意外冲击,会大幅度降低结构强度,影响飞机安全.以某型飞机外翼为例,考虑运行过程中意外冲击损伤的产生、载荷超限和维护过程中损伤的漏检等因素,采用概率分析方法对结构失效概率进行分析,并计算详细目视检测方法对应的检修间隔.结果表明,计算得到的检修间隔略大于工程实际中"4C"值.此概率分析方法用来确定复合材料结构件检修间隔是可行的,并可以实现检修间隔的动态化调整.     

单点弹道精度与轨道半长轴远地点高度计算精度的映射关系

在仅使用单点位置、速度信息计算轨道的奈件下,针对轨道半长轴、远地点高度的精度问题,在轨道面内,应用活力公式和二体运动学理论推导得出了轨道计算精度与弹道测量精度间映射关系的解析表达式,并采用数值分析方法给出了不同的位置、速度误差与半长轴、远地点高度最大误差之间的数值关系.仿真结果表明,对于位置误差和速度误差大小分别为100 m和1 m/s的算例,半长轴最大误差和远地点高度最大误差分别约为2 km和4 km.基于此方法,可以将弹道误差传递至轨道参数误差,进一步分析故障误判和漏判概率;也可根据轨道参数精度要求反算弹道测量精度要求,以作为地面测量系统建设的技术依据.     

轴承腔油气两相流数值模拟的试验验证

为探索一种适于模拟轴承腔油气两相流流动特性的数值计算模型,建立了一套简化结构的轴承腔试验装置,通过试验研究获得了不同工况对轴承腔通风口出气比例和回油口滑油温升的影响规律.应用Fluent软件,采用Mixture多相流模型和Eulerian多相流模型分别搭配标准k-ε湍流模型和RNG(renormalization group) k-ε湍流模型对选定试验工况进行数值模拟.对比结果表明:当转速为2200r/min时,使用Mixture多相流模型搭配RNG k-ε湍流模型计算的滑油温升与试验值的相对误差仅为2.72%,体现了该计算模型在高转速时的精确性,并在此基础上获得了油气两相流速度场、压力场和温度场的分布特征.      

A simple smoother: closed-form solution and analytical results

A closed-form solid-state solution for a simple one-dimensional smoother is presented. The target position-velocity dynamics are modeled as a linear discrete Gauss-Markov process: the discrete position measurements are assumed to be independent and identically normally distributed. Analytical results derived from estimating optimum steady-state position and velocity are given as well as the improvement provided by smoothing relative to pure filtering estimates. Analytical results, including appropriate limiting cases, show that the ratios of the RMS smoothing to the RMS filtering error are from 1/2 to 1 in position and from 1/2 to 1/√2 in velocity. As a numerical example a highly maneuvering target characterized by an acceleration width of 30 m/s² is considered     

随机恒速运动目标的搜索方程及持续探测概率

根据目标位置的初始分布和速度分布,给出了随机恒速运动目标在任意时刻位置和速度分布密度函数。定义了探测函数、目标存在和探测不成功的联合概率密度函数和目标存活概率函数,建立了基于目标速度分布的搜索方程并给出了其特征迹线解。在目标初始分布和速度分布均为圆正态分布条件下,分析了搜索方程特征迹线的基本特征和持续探测发现概率积分域的形态。给出了一个以直升机吊放声纳探测潜艇为背景的持续探测发现概率的算例,算例表明,对随机恒速运动目标持续探测的发现概率,与对静止目标进行持续探测的发现概率相似,服从时间的指数规律。     

A noncoherent adaptive detection technique

An adaptive detection technique suitable for both stationary and nonstationary noise environments based upon a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) formulation is presented. The detector, which is statistically equivalent to a special form of the Wilks's lambda test, noncoherently combines the information contained in a pulse train of arbitrary length for decision-making purposes. The probability density function of the test under the noise only hypothesis is shown to be central χ². Under the signal plus noise hypothesis, an exact statistical characterization of the test cannot be obtained, and, therefore, a Chernoff bound is derived. Results in terms of the probability of detection versus signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) obtained from Monte Carlo simulation, the Chernoff bound, and the optimal matched filter case are examined. The performance of the noncoherent detector is shown to be a function of the covariance matrix estimate and the number of data samples     

Radar Track Acquisition Range

The track acquisiton range of a track-while-scan radar is defined as the range at which the cumulative probability of M detections in N scans is 90 percent. Track acquisition ranges for 2 out of 3, 2 out of 4, and 3 out of 4 detection criteria are presented for Swerling 0, 1, and 3 target models.