基于组合赋权的空管系统安全风险物元评价

空管系统的安全风险状况对航空运输安全运营有直接的影响。综合考虑空管系统安全运行管理的特点,构建空管系统安全风险的评价指标体系;应用欧几里得距离函数对空管系统安全风险评价指标进行组合赋权,确定空管系统安全风险评价指标的组合权重;引入物元分析方法建立空管系统安全风险评价物元模型,并进行实例验证。结果表明:物元分析方法能够评估空管系统整体的安全风险状况,得到了各个评价指标的安全风险状况,有助于采取针对性的有效措施提高空管部门的安全风险管理水平。     

基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型

对基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型进行了研究。首先,建立了系统安全事件案例知识表达模型。其次,研究了系统知识表达的不确定性问题,以及安全风险决策者的决策类型对度量不确定性的需求;基于现有安全风险模型对不确定性度量能力的欠缺,提出了基于案例知识的系统安全风险概念模型,用损失可能性、损失程度和损失的不确定性来表征系统安全风险。在此基础上,研究了该安全风险模型的建模方法,并举例证明了该模型的有效性。最后,对机长飞行安全风险进行了研究,选取机长年龄、累计飞行小时以及近90天飞行小时3个指标作为风险因子,应用本文所建基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型,评估了机长飞行安全风险,评估结果合理,可为民航放飞决策提供参考。     

无人机系统适航与安全性分析方法

针对无人机系统安全性需求,首先根据载人航空器适航审定规范及安全性评估依据,表明由于无人机系统的特殊性造成直接应用现有安全性评估流程和评估方法具有局限性.在此基础上提出无人机系统适航安全性评估的几点改进:①考虑无人机系统包括无人机和综合保障设备,扩大安全性评估边界进行无人机系统级的功能危险分析;②考虑无人机系统“人机分离”特点,需要对无人机系统失效状态的严重程度进行重新分级和定义;③考虑无人机系统本身受起飞质量的影响很大,强调必须根据无人机系统分类对地面撞击和空中碰撞两个关键事件进行安全性分析.结果表明:上述改进从无人机系统本身特点出发,通过给定的目标安全水平进一步确保安全性.      

基于改进FRAM的民机系统安全性分析

民机安全性分析的重要内容之一是系统运行过程分析，现有的运营安全性分析模型大多没有综合考虑人、飞机、运行环境等各类影响安全性的因素。本文综合考虑系统安全性分析功能间的时间、控制、资源、前提等影响，更加细致地分析影响系统安全运行的因素，建立了全面且规范化定量化安全性分析模型。运用功能可变性描述规则（RFV）、层次分析法（AHP）对功能共振分析法（FRAM）进行改进，建立民机系统安全性综合分析模型。使用模型还原143号班机安全运行所需条件，分析得出应重点防范的耦合变异与功能失效，且扩展了原事故调查报告结论，表明了该模型的可行性，提出的理论模型可为航空公司在运营系统安全性方面提供理论参考和技术支持。     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空公司飞行安全系统评价

开展航空公司的飞行安全系统评价是提高飞行安全运行水平的重要措施。在对国内外相关研究成果进行分析和比较的基础上,结合飞行安全评价中的不确定性特点,利用飞行安全评价指标体系,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的飞行安全系统评价模型。该模型能够有效地处理专家意见一致或不一致的情形,并对系统进行预测及诊断分析。通过对某航空公司飞行安全运行状况的实例评价,结果表明此方法是合理有效的。     

太阳能无人机能源系统的多维耦合建模

针对太阳能无人机能源系统建模的耦合性考虑不足、能量流动过程描述不全面等问题,将外部大气环境、无人机的姿态角度等不同维度下影响能源系统运行的多个因素纳入到建模过程中,先后给出了非均质大气环境模型、无人机运动模型、电机模型、减速器模型、螺旋桨模型、光伏电池模型和蓄电池模型的建立过程,并建立了各模型间的耦合关系,得到反映非均质大气环境下、动态飞行行为的太阳能无人机中能量流动的耦合模型。仿真结果表明：该模型可以完整的描述外部大气环境和无人机飞行姿态对无人机发电功率以及动力负荷功率的影响等耦合作用,适合用于仿真分析和地面半实物仿真平台的搭建。     

无人机用燃料电池阴极供气系统建模与控制

燃料电池因其高效、无污染、噪声小等特点,被认为是未来最具有潜力的无人机（UAV）用动力源,燃料电池阴极供气系统的控制技术是决定燃料电池系统性能和可靠性的关键。针对无人机用质子交换膜燃料电池（PEMFC）阴极供气系统,首先,考虑外界温度、压力、空气密度以及雷诺数等随高度变化的参数,建立了跨高度离心空压机模型并分析了其在不同高度下的工作特性,基于无刷直流电机反电势特征构建了高速空压机驱动电机模型。其次,通过计算燃料电池阴极氧气和氮气的动态分压获取了PEMFC电堆输出电压。设计了基于分数阶PI^λD^μ的过氧比和阴极气压控制方法,驱动电机采用有限集模型预测控制（MPC）实现快速的转矩响应,仿真结果表明设计的控制器可在无人机跨高度运行条件下实现过氧比的快速调节,同时维持阴极气压稳定,满足燃料电池阴极供气需求。     

航空活塞发动机涡轮增压系统的安全边界研究

针对高空长航时无人机的动力性和安全性要求,首先应用MATLAB/Simulink对某型一级航空活塞发动机涡轮增压系统建立联合仿真模型.模型主要分为四部分:涡轮增压器模型、发动机平均值模型、中冷器模型和废气阀模型,并根据实验数据对仿真结果进行了校核,确保模型的可行性.在此基础上从整个系统的角度出发研究活塞发动机涡轮增压系统的安全边界,通过发动机级的安全边界要求给出增压器级的安全要求,同时分析主要参数对系统安全性的影响.最后,建立基于安全边界的废气阀的调节规律,使整个活塞发动机涡轮增压系统运行在安全边界之内.结果表明:基于模型的活塞发动机涡轮增压系统的安全边界研究方法给可以给出系统安全运行边界,同时可以在保证安全的前提下为下一步改善发动机涡轮增压系统的性能提供依据,进一步在设计阶段确保系统的安全性.      

复杂气象条件下考虑结冰风险的无人机飞行策略

为解决无人机在复杂气象条件下易受结冰影响而威胁其飞行安全的问题，提出了一种考虑结冰风险的无人机航迹规划方法。首先，构建基于中尺度WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)模式的结冰气象预测模型，通过最佳参数化方案组合的结冰气象模拟获得模拟时段内海南乐东地区的温度、压力、液态水含量（LWC）空间分布及时序变化。其次，构建基于代理模型的水滴收集质量快速预测方法。在获取美国联邦航空条例（FAR）25部附录C中连续最大结冰条件下40个采样点处水滴收集质量分布的基础上，利用本征正交分解（POD）降阶模型和Kriging插值算法，建立温度、压力、LWC、平均有效水滴直径（MVD）等结冰气象参数与水滴收集质量之间的代理模型，可快速预测出目标区域内水滴收集质量的空间分布与时序变化。最后，根据飞机结冰强度划分等级，以不同结冰强度下水滴收集质量阈值为结冰安全约束，利用基于粒子群优化（PSO）的结冰容限航迹规划方法进行考虑结冰风险的无人机飞行策略研究。研究结果表明：利用WRF模式可获得温度、压力、LWC等结冰气象参数，预测值与观测值匹配良好；基于POD降阶模型和Krigin...     

自由飞行下考虑高空风的最小安全间距研究

自由飞行为解决空中交通拥挤问题提供了有效方法,为保证自由飞行下的飞行安全,对飞机对间的最小安全间距的研究显得尤为重要。高空风对飞机的航向、地速都有影响,综合考虑了CNS性能及高空风因素来建立基于随机微分方程的碰撞风险模型,利用MATLAB计算算例中的碰撞风险。根据给定的安全目标水平,利用牛顿迭代法对最小安全间距进行寻优,求解自由飞行下的最小安全间距。算例结果表明了所建模型的可行性。     

A survey of safety separation management and collision avoidance approaches of civil UAS operating in integration national airspace system

Recent years have witnessed a booming of the industry of civil Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). As an emerging industry, the UAS industry has been attracting great attention from governments of all countries and the aviation industry. UAS are highly digitalized, informationized, and intelligent; therefore, their integration into the national airspace system has become an important trend in the development of civil aviation. However, the complexity of UAS operation poses great challenges to the traditional aviation regulatory system and technical means. How to prevent collisions between UASs and between UAS and manned aircraft to achieve safe and efficient operation in the integrated operating airspace has become a common challenge for industry and academia around the world. In recent years, the international community has carried out a great amount of work and experiments in the air traffic management of UAS and some of the key technologies. This paper attempts to make a review of the UAS separation management and key technologies in collision avoidance in the integrated airspace, mainly focusing on the current situation of UAS Traffic Management (UTM), safety separation standards, detection system, collision risk prediction, collision avoidance, safety risk assessment, etc., as well as an analysis of the bottlenecks that the current researches encountered and their development trends, so as to provide some insights and references for further research in this regard. Finally, this paper makes a further summary of some of the research highlights and challenges.     

System of simulation training for unmanned aircraft

For proficiently operating an unmanned aircraft, the aircrew must be thoroughly trained. However, using practical equipment to train the aircrew is work of high cost and risk. In this paper, a system of simulation training for unmanned aircraft is introduced. Its function and composition are explained in detail. In practice, the system not only decreases training cost and risk, but also strengthens training effectiveness and diversity     

无人战斗机结构安全系数的确定

综述了飞机结构安全系数的概念形成和演化过程以及影响因索，探讨了无人战斗机的结构低安全系数静强度设计可行性；提出了无人战斗机的不同结构材料和不同结构部位对应低安全系数的取值原则。     

Envelope protection for aircraft encountering upset condition based on dynamic envelope enlargement

Upset condition encountered by an aircraft in flight could pose great threat to flight safety, which is of chief importance in civil aviation. The causal factors have the nonlinear and multiple characteristics, and as a result the conventional envelope protection system cannot successfully do with the condition. So dynamic envelope based on differential manifold theory, which can take more coupling factors into account, is proposed as a basis to design a novel envelope protection system. Then the relationship between the dynamic envelope and the control coefficient or pilot command is obtained, and the result shows that the dynamic envelope can be enlarged with the change of control coefficient. Furthermore, quantification of flight security is realized via defining relative distance between flight state and dynamic envelope, which can detect whether there is a risk for an aircraft in flight. Finally, an envelope protection system based on dynamic envelope enlargement is proposed on the basis. NASA’s Generic Transport Model encountering hazard gust wind in climbing phase is taken as an example to verify the system’s feasibility. The result shows that the system can give a better operation encountering upset condition and to a certain extent reduce the number of accidents or incidents.     

Multiple hierarchy risk assessment with hybrid model for safety enhancing of unmanned subscale BWB demonstrator flight test

To explore the low-speed characteristics of the Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) configuration for future civil aircraft, a series of unmanned subscale demonstrators have been developed and tested by our research team. During this process, specific safety risks deriving from uncertain design features, system unreliability, and insufficient personnel experience caused continuous flight test mishaps and the risk mechanism was not clear. Local and trial-and-error learning driven safety improvements took few effects on mishap prevention, so our focus was turned to look for systematic safety strategies. This paper establishes a systems theory based hybrid model to integrate the physical system reliability analysis techniques with the system dynamics method for illustrating the multiple risk interactions of the demonstrator flight test involving organizational, human resource and technical system factors. Using the prior BB-5 demonstrator as a case, the hybrid model simulation represents its historical risk evolution process, which verifies the model rationality. Derived risk control strategies reduced the mishap rate of a new demonstrator called BB-6 Sprit. The paper also shows the extended hybrid model can be applied on safety management of unmanned aerial vehicles from the initial period of vehicle development.     

基于可达集方法的结冰飞机着陆阶段安全风险评估

飞机在着陆过程中极易发生结冰的现象,结冰对飞行安全造成的危害极为严重。结冰导致飞机发生危险的原因是由于机翼或尾翼被冰层覆盖后空气动力学行为发生改变,飞机受力异常难以控制。为分析结冰后飞机的稳定性以保证飞行安全,以飞机纵向动力学系统为分析对象,将飞机结冰后状态的描述以可达集的形式进行,直观地判断飞机状态是否可控,以此确定飞机是否处于安全状态。以求解所得的可达集为基础,利用极值定理分析结冰飞机的风险概率模型,由模型计算不同情况下飞机的风险概率,最终得到飞机着陆阶段的安全风险评估结果,并由评估结果指导驾驶员操纵,从而保证飞机的安全飞行。