Modelling Short-Term Spectral Irradiance Variations

On time-scales of the solar rotation most of the solar irradiance variations are caused by the changing distribution of solar surface magnetic features. We model these short-term irradiance variations using calculations of sunspot and facular contrasts as a function of wavelength and limb angle on the Sun. The position of active regions on the solar disc is derived from the MDI magnetograms. The reconstructed irradiance variations are compared with total and spectral irradiance measurements obtained by the VIRGO experiment on SOHO.     

Short Term,Direct Indices of Solar Variability

Indices of solar activity relevant for understanding and modelling solar irradiance variability are identified, and their temporal characteristics compared. Reproducing observed solar irradiance variability requires a minimum of two different types of indices — an index for irradiance depletion by sunspots and an index for global irradiance enhancement by faculae and network. When combined with appropriate wavelength-dependent parameterizations of sunspot and facular contrasts and center-to-limb functions, these indices permit the construction of empirical models of daily, monthly and annual solar total and spectral irradiances. The models are compared with observations at selected wavelengths and for the total irradiance. While the models replicate much of the rotational and 11-year cycle variance in contemporary irradiance databases, differences exist because of either the presence of variability mechanisms additional to solar magnetism, or of unresolved instrumental effects in the databases. The reconstruction of solar irradiance in the past requires speculation about the extent of intercycle fluctuations in the global facular index, or in other, as yet unspecified, variability mechanisms.     

Solar Surface Magnetism and Irradiance on Time Scales from Days to the 11-Year Cycle

The uninterrupted measurement of the total solar irradiance during the last three solar cycles and an increasing amount of solar spectral irradiance measurements as well as solar imaging observations (magnetograms and photometric data) have stimulated the development of models attributing irradiance variations to solar surface magnetism. Here we review the current status of solar irradiance measurements and modelling efforts based on solar photospheric magnetic fields. Thereby we restrict ourselves to the study of solar variations from days to the solar cycle. Phenomenological models of the solar atmosphere in combination with imaging observations of solar electromagnetic radiation and measurements of the photospheric magnetic field have reached high enough quality to show that a large fraction (at least, about 80%) of the solar irradiance variability can be explained by the radiative effects of the magnetic activity present in the photosphere. Also, significant progress has been made with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of convection that allow us to relate the radiance of the photospheric magnetic structures to the observations.     

Solar flux and its variations

We present data on the solar irradiance as derived from a number of sources. An attempt was made to bring these data onto a uniform scale. The results are presented in Table IV and Figure 6. Summation of fluxes at all wavelengths yields a figure of 1357.826 W m^-2 for the solar constant. Estimates are made of the solar flux variations due to flares, active regions (slowly varying component), solar rotation and the 11-year cycle.Solar activity does not produce a significant variation in the value of the solar constant. Nevertheless, variations in the X-ray and extreme ultraviolet portions of the solar flux may be several orders of magnitude during solar activity, especially at times of major flares. It is well established that these short wavelength flux enhancements cause significant changes in the terrestrial ionosphere.     

Measurement of Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance

The Sun’s electromagnetic radiation powers our solar system. In the case of the Earth it heats the lands and ocean, maintains our atmosphere, generates clouds, and cycles water. For other planets and minor bodies, similar and appropriate physical processes occur, also powered by the Sun. The Sun varies on all time scales and a precise knowledge of the Sun's irradiance and its variation is essential to our understanding of environments and physical conditions throughout our solar system. Measurements of solar irradiance and its variation can only be made from space, and almost thirty years of observation have now established that the total solar irradiance (TSI) varies by only 0.1 to 0.3%, while certain portions of the solar spectrum, the ultraviolet for example, vary by orders of magnitude more. This paper provides an overview of TSI observations and of spectral irradiance observations from the ultraviolet to the near infrared.     

Reconstruction of Past Solar Irradiance

Accurate measurements of solar irradiance started in 1978, but a much longer time series is needed in order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate. In order to reconstruct the irradiance prior to 1978 we require both an understanding of the underlying causes of solar irradiance variability as well as data describing the state of the Sun (in particular its magnetic field) at the relevant epochs.Evidence is accumulating that on the time-scale of the solar cycle or less, variations in solar irradiance are produced mainly by changes in the amount and distribution of magnetic flux on the solar surface. The main solar features contributing to a darkening of the Sun are sunspots, while active-region faculae and the network lead to a brightening. There is also increasing evidence for secular changes of the solar magnetic field and the associated of solar brightness variability. In part the behavior of sun-like stars is used as a guide of such secular changes.Under the assumption that solar irradiance variations are due to solar surface magnetism on all relevant time scales it is possible to reconstruct the irradiance with some reliability from today to around 1874, and with lower accuracy back to the Maunder minimum. One major problem is the decreasing amount and accuracy of the relevant data with age. In this review the various reconstructions of past solar irradiance are presented and the assumptions underlying them are scrutinized.     

The Effect of Solar UV Irradiance Variations on the Earth's Atmosphere

The response of the lower and middle atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance typical of those observed to take place over the 11-year activity cycle has been investigated. The effects on radiative heating rates of changing total solar irradiance, solar spectral irradiance and two different assumptions concerning stratospheric ozone have been studied with a radiative transfer code. The response in the stratosphere depends on the changes specified in the ozone distribution which is not well known. A general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere up to 0.1 mbar (about 65 km) has been used to study the impacts of these changes on the thermodynamical structure. The results in the troposphere are very similar to those reported by Haigh99 using a quite different GCM. In the middle atmosphere the model is able to reproduce quite well the observed seasonal evolution of temperature and wind anomalies. Calculations of radiative forcing due to solar variation are presented. These show that the thermal infrared component of the forcing, due to warming of the stratosphere, is important but suggest a near balance between the longwave and shortwave effects of the increased ozone so that ozone change may not be important for net radiative forcing. However, the structure of the ozone change does affect the detailed temperature response and the spectral composition of the radiation entering the troposphere.     

What do Cosmogenic Isotopes Tell us About Past Solar Forcing of Climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth's atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Measurements of solar total irradiance and its variability

The development of electrically self calibrated cavity pyrheliometric instrumentation that occurred in the early 20th century provided the technological base for experiments to detect variability of the solar total irradiance. Experiments from ground based observatories, aircraft and balloons during the 1st half of the 20th century were unable to achieve sufficient accuracy or long term precision to unambiguously detect irradiance variations of solar origin. Refinements in pyrheliometric technology during the 1960's and 1970's and the accessibility of extended experimental opportunities above the Earth's atmosphere in recent years have provided the first direct observations of solar total irradiance variability and provided the cornerstone observations of a long term database on solar irradiance. A program of solar irradiance monitoring has evolved to sustain the database over at least 22 years, corresponding to a single cycle of solar magnetic activity, and the shortest well identified cycle of climate variation. Direct links between total irradiance variations, solar magnetic activity and the solar global 5 min oscillation phenomena have been derived from recent space flight observations by the SMM/ACRIM I experiment.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

Extreme solar cycle variability in strong lines between 200 and 400 NM

Our study of solar cycle irradiance variability in the UV between 200 and 400 nm requires a detailed knowledge of the composition of the solar spectrum in this wavelength range. We compute the synthetic spectrum from 250 to 300 nm and compare it with ATLAS3 and SOLSTICE observations. Synthetic solar spectra for solar minimum and maximum conditions show large variations in broad, strong UV lines. Strong lines of FeI between 260 nm and 264 nm show increases between 0.4× and 3×in their max/min ratio. Our ``broad lines' database shows 167 lines with similar properties between 200 nm and 400 nm. Our results raise issues of the importance of such large variability in narrow bands and the difficulty of detection in measurements with spectral resolutions of 1 nm.     

Using Precise Solar Limb Shape Measurements to Study the Solar Cycle

Despite 20 years of total solar irradiance measurements from space, the lack of high precision spatially resolved observations limits definitive answers to even simple questions like ``Are the solar irradiance changes caused solely by magnetic fields perturbing the radiative flux at the photosphere?" More subtle questions like how the aspheric structure of the sun changes with the magnetic cycle are only now beginning to be addressed with new tools like p-mode helioseismology. Solar 5-min oscillation studies have yielded precise information on the mean radial interior solar structure and some knowledge about the rotational and thermal solar asphericity. Unfortunately this progress has not been enough to generate a self-consistent theory for why the solar irradiance and luminosity vary with the magnetic cycle. We need sharper tools to describe and understand the sun's global aspheric response to its internal dynamo, and we need to be able to measure the solar cycle manifestation of the magnetic cycle on entropy transport from the interior to the photosphere in much the same way that we study the fundamentally more complex problem of magnetic flux transport from the solar interior. A space experiment called the Solar Physics Explorer for Radius, Irradiance and Shape (SPHERIS) and in particular its Astrometric and Photometric Telescope (APT) component will accomplish these goals.

     

Large-scale and solar-cycle variations of the solar wind

This paper summarizes space probe observations relevant to the determination of the large-scale, three-dimensional structure of the solar wind and its solar cycle variations. Observations between 0.6 and 5 AU reveal very little change in the average solar-wind velocity, but a pronounced decrease in the spread of velocities about the average. The velocity changes may be accompanied by a transfer of energy from the electrons to the protons. The mass flux falls off approximately as the inverse square of distance as expected for spherically symmetric flow. Measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field show that the spiral angle is well defined over this entire range of distances, but there is some evidence that the spiral may wind up more slowly with distance from the Sun than predicted by Parker's model. The variances or noise in the field and plasma have also been measured as a function of radial distance.During the rising portion of the solar-activity cycle, the solar-wind velocity showed a pronounced positive correlation with solar latitude over the range ±7°. Several other plasma parameters which have been found generally to correlate (or anticorrelate) with velocity also showed a latitude variation; these parameters include the density, percent helium, and azimuthal flow direction. The average polarity and the north-south component of the magnetic field depend on the solar hemisphere in which the measurements are made.Dependence on the phase of the solar-activity cycle can be found in the data on the number of high speed streams, the proton density, the percent helium, and the magnetic-field strength and polarity.     

Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25–45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth’s surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possible.     

The Sun–Earth Connection in Time Scales from Years to Decades and Centuries

The Sun–Earth connection is studied using long-term measurements from the Sun and from the Earth. The auroral activity is shown to correlate to high accuracy with the smoothed sunspot numbers. Similarly, both geomagnetic activity and global surface temperature anomaly can be linked to cyclic changes in the solar activity. The interlinked variations in the solar magnetic activity and in the solar irradiance cause effects that can be observed both in the Earth's biosphere and in the electromagnetic environment. The long-term data sets suggest that the increase in geomagnetic activity and surface temperatures are related (at least partially) to longer-term solar variations, which probably include an increasing trend superposed with a cyclic behavior with a period of about 90 years.     

Pickup Ion Acceleration at the Termination Shock and in the Heliosheath

We discuss pickup ion acceleration and transport near the solar wind termination shock from the perspective of their spectral, spatial, and pitch-angle distributions. Our study is performed in the framework of a recently developed anisotropic transport model based on a Legendre polynomial expansion technique. Voyager 1 LECP angular distributions of 1 MeV protons, represented in the form of an expansion in spherical harmonics in the frame aligned with the measured interplanetary magnetic field, are used as benchmarks for our theory. We find the observed distributions consistent with our model predictions for particle acceleration and reflection at a highly oblique shock wave. It is shown that first-order (field aligned) anisotropy is a measure of shock obliquity while the second-order (transverse) anisotropy reflects the energy dependence of the particle scattering mean free path. We also discuss the role of enhanced scattering and momentum diffusion on the spectral properties of energetic charged particles.     

Three-dimensional cosmic-ray simulations: Heliographic latitude and current-sheet tilt

We present the results from a study of the variations of the cosmic-ray intensity with time, heliographic latitude, and longitude, and for varying interplanetary conditions, using our three-dimensional, time-dependent computer code for cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere. Our code also produces a solar-wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) configuration which is compared with observations. Because of the fully threedimensional nature of the model calculations, we are able to model time variations which would be expected to be observed along Ulysses's trajectory as it moves to high latitudes. In particular we can model the approximately 13-and 26-day solar-rotation induced variations in cosmic rays, solar wind and IMF, as a function of increasing heliographic latitude, as one moves poleward of the interplanetary current sheet. Our preliminary model results seem to be in general form quite similar to published data, but depend on the physical parameters used such as cosmic-ray diffusion coefficients, boundary conditions, and the nature of the solar wind and IMF and current sheet.