航空装备现场数据可靠性评估方法有效性分析

针对航空高可靠性产品现场故障数据样本量小和经常出现数据删失的问题,分析了平均秩次法与期望-极大值（EM）算法的有效性,给出了这两种方法的适用范围。应用蒙特卡罗仿真方法,在考虑维修的情况下,设计了一种评定可靠性评估方法有效性的仿真方法。该方法以威布尔分布为例,通过飞行年、飞机架数、日利用率的动态变化来模拟产生具有随机删失特点的航空装备现场故障数据,以此来动态驱动样本量和删失比的变化,并分别评估这两种可靠性评估方法的有效性。仿真结果表明,在样本量为10~30时的小样本随机删失数据参数估计中,EM算法应该被优先采用。     

Scatter factor confidence interval estimate of least square maximum entropy quantile function for small samples

Classic maximum entropy quantile function method (CMEQFM) based on the probabil-ity weighted moments (PWMs) can accurately estimate the quantile function of random variable on small samples, but inaccurately on the very small samples. To overcome this weakness, least square maximum entropy quantile function method (LSMEQFM) and that with constraint condition (LSMEQFMCC) are proposed. To improve the confidence level of quantile function estimation, scatter factor method is combined with maximum entropy method to estimate the confidence inter-val of quantile function. From the comparisons of these methods about two common probability distributions and one engineering application, it is showed that CMEQFM can estimate the quan-tile function accurately on the small samples but inaccurately on the very small samples (10 sam-ples); LSMEQFM and LSMEQFMCC can be successfully applied to the very small samples;with consideration of the constraint condition on quantile function, LSMEQFMCC is more stable and computationally accurate than LSMEQFM; scatter factor confidence interval estimation method based on LSMEQFM or LSMEQFMCC has good estimation accuracy on the confidence interval of quantile function, and that based on LSMEQFMCC is the most stable and accurate method on the very small samples (10 samples).     

竞争性故障模型可靠性评估的非参数估计方法

针对航空发动机现场数据的可靠性评估面临着小子样与随机删失问题,对可靠性评估中的非参数估计方法进行了对比分析.应用蒙特卡罗方法,在竞争性故障模型下,设计了一种对比可靠性评估方法优劣性的仿真方法.该方法以三重威布尔分布为例,通过模拟产生具有随机删失特点的航空发动机现场故障数据,分别对比4种可靠性评估非参数估计方法的优劣性.最后通过一个工程应用案例验证了模型的有效性.仿真结果表明:在三重威布尔竞争性故障模型下,非参数估计方法的优劣顺序依次是Kaplan-Meier估计、平均秩次法、Herd-Johnson估计、Nelson-Aalen估计.      

多操纵面飞机舵面损伤的快速故障诊断

针对多操纵面飞机舵面损伤的快速故障诊断问题,提出一种直接估计舵面偏转量的自适应补偿观测器方法。首先,设计了增广观测器进行系统输入估计,并提出了自适应补偿方法解决其动态跟踪性能差的问题;其次,设计了一种新的自适应阈值以快速检测故障并降低虚警率;最后,利用舵面故障特点,采用重置初值的限定记忆最小二乘方法实现了对突变参数的实时估计,用以进行故障隔离。仿真结果表明:在不同的舵面损伤故障情况下,所提出的观测器方法能在20 ms内发出故障预警,并在0.22 s内确定故障位置,所采用的辨识方法可以在故障报警后的0.2 s内准确估计出损伤程度。     

Design and Simulation of Electro-hydrostatic Actuator with a Built-in Power Regulator

The electro-hydrostatic actuator (EHA) is a kind of power-by-wire (PBW) actuator that converts the electrical power into localized hydraulic power for flight control. By removing the central hydraulic power supply together with hydraulic pipes, an EHA's reliability and efficiency are greatly improved but its frequency width and stiffness decreased. To overcome the drawback, this article proposes a novel structure of EHA associated with a power regulator. Composed of a high-pressure accumulator and a proportional valve, it can store and harness the hydraulic power flexibly according to the changing control requirements. The concept of transferred volume is put forward to estimate the capability of the power regulator. The actuator output position can be kept fixed with a hydraulic lock. The compounded control is specially developed to ensure the actuator system to operate in a correct manner. The simulation results indicate that the new-brand actuator results in efficient expanding of the system frequency width with an optimal power supply.     

基本维修作业工时的数据处理

根据基本维修作业时间的统计分析特点,提出了基本维修作业工时数据的处理方法。该方法明确了维修作业工时数据采集后的筛选和补充方法,按照数理统计方法处理数据的一般流程,给出了本处理方法中的样本数据常用统计量,阐述了基本维修作业工时数据分布的确定方法,提出了基本维修作业工时的计算方法和评价原则。该方法可以显著提高数据的有效性和可信性,处理后的采样数据主要用于建立基本维修作业工时数据库,奠定数字化维修作业平台建设的基础。     

Duane模型的导数最小二乘估计

 针对传统最小二乘估计仅仅考虑回归模型曲线本身的试验样本,不能同时对曲线动态变化规律进行描述、未能充分利用模型与数据信息的问题,依据在一次观测中待定参数的取值应使得随机样本与模型各阶导函数在概率尺度下具有最小距离的原理,通过构造模型曲线导数意义下的损失函数,提出了一种能够综合利用模型与试验数据导数信息的导数最小乘方估计方法,推广了传统最小二乘估计的模型条件与使用范围。并结合复杂可修产品可靠性增长的Duane模型给出了参数的一般导数最小二乘估计与最佳导数最小二乘估计式,证明了模型参数的导数最小二乘估计较传统最小二乘估计具有更好的统计性质。为实际中确定模型曲线,进行工程预测提供了一条新的技术途径。     

高维小失效概率下的改进线抽样方法

 针对隐式极限状态方程的可靠性分析，提出了一种基于失效域样本模拟的高效线抽样法。该法采用马尔可夫链来快速得到失效域中的条件样本，利用这些失效域中的样本可以得到线抽样的重要方向，并且这些样本还可以作为线抽样的样本，来得到隐式极限状态方程失效概率的估计值。由于该法可以较准确地得到线抽样方法的重要方向，因此线抽样的效率可以得到提高，另外失效域的样本又可以作为线抽样的样本，从而进一步降低所提方法的计算工作量。算例表明所提算法的计算精度和效率均高于传统线抽样方法。     

飞机整体驱动发电机可靠性与维修策略探究

针对飞机整体驱动发电机可靠性分析手段缺乏、故障样本小且维修策略相对保守的问题,提出了以历史故障数据为驱动的贝叶斯和马尔可夫链融合的可靠性分析方法。 首先,利用蒙特卡洛方法对故障数据预处理以增大样本空间,并通过最大信息熵法求解飞机整体驱动发电机的先验分布;其次,利用马尔可夫链方法对复杂后验分布进行解算;最后,以可靠性为中心给出飞机 IDG 的维修建议。 经过数值仿真软件计算后得 IDG 的累计失效函数参数估计误差分别为 0. 121 3 和 0. 001 3,误差较小。 仿真结果表明,提出的可靠性分析方法适用于小样本空间的飞机 IDG 可靠性分析,并根据结果给出了维修建议。     

Electromechanical Actuation Technology for the All-Electric Aircraft

Electromechanical actuation is a critical element that must be developed and verified to make the all-electric aircraft a viable concept. For several years the Flight Control Division of the Air Force Wright Aeronautical Laboratories has sponsored activities to demonstrate the credibility of electromechanical actuation systems (EMAS) for primary flight control actuation functions. The foundation for these EMAS activities and several electromechanical actuation development programs are described here. One involves the design, fabrication, and laboratory test of a rotary, hingeline electromechanical actuator. Another involves the development and flight test demonstration of a linear electromechanical actuator for controlling an aileron of a C-141 aircraft. A third involves the design and development of a linear electromechanical actuator for missiles having severe performance, temperature, and volumetric requirements. In addition, a brief summary of the results from two aircraft actuation trade studies compare the baseline (conventional) hydraulic flight control system with an all-electric airplane concept including quantitative comparisons of weight, reliability and maintainability, and life cycle costs.     

Multiple model adaptive estimation with filter spawning

Multiple model adaptive estimation (MMAE) with filter spawning is used to detect and estimate partial actuator failures on the VISTA F-16. The truth model is a full six-degree-of-freedom simulation provided by Calspan and General Dynamics. The design models are chosen as 13-state linearized models, including first order actuator models. Actuator failures are incorporated into the truth model and design model assuming a "failure to free stream." Filter spawning is used to include additional filters with partial actuator failure hypotheses into the MMAE bank. The spawned filters are based on varying degrees of partial failures (in terms of effectiveness) associated with the complete-actuaton-failure hypothesis with the highest conditional probability of correctness at the current time. Thus, a blended estimate of the failure effectiveness is found using the filters' estimates based upon a no-failure hypothesis, a complete actuator failure hypothesis, and the spawned filters' partial-failure hypotheses. This yields substantial precision in effectiveness estimation, compared with what is possible without spawning additional filters, making partial failure adaptation a viable methodology.     

维氏硬度与里氏硬度对应关系的研究

研究了维氏硬度和里氏硬度的对应关系,在大量试验的基础上,采用最小二乘法拟合了维氏硬度和里氏硬度的关系式,并对原换算表的低值部分进行了扩展.     

Fault Detection and Diagnosis of Aircraft Actuators using Fuzzy-Tuning IMM Filter

This paper proposes a new interacting multiple model (IMM) filter for actuator fault detection. Since each individual filter of the IMM filter uses the combined information of the estimation values from all the operating filters, it can effectively estimate system parameter variations, thereby it can diagnose the actuator damage with an unknown magnitude. In this study, to diagnose the actuator failure fast and accurately, fuzzy logic is used to tune a transition probability among multiple models. This makes the fault detection process smooth and reduces the possibility of false fault detection. Also, a discrete fault tolerant command tracker is derived to cope with actuator damages. To validate the performance of the proposed fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) algorithm, numerical simulations are performed for a high performance aircraft system.     

基于状态反馈的执行器故障容错控制

针对线性离散系统的执行器故障,提出了一种基于状态反馈的容错控制方法。该方法在应用自适应卡尔曼滤波进行系统状态和故障同步估计的基础上,通过故障信息和状态估计进行状态反馈,对闭环系统进行极点配置,从而修正执行器故障造成的系统误差,实现容错控制。最后,将该方法应用于飞行控制系统的执行器故障容错控制,仿真结果表明该方法不仅能够准确地进行故障估计,而且能够在故障情况下保证系统输出正常,具有一定的理论意义和实际工程应用价值。     

基于失效物理的动量轮贝叶斯可靠性评估

作为卫星姿态控制系统关键部件的动量轮,其可靠性关系到卫星发射的成败。但是由于有小子样、高可靠性和长寿命等特点,受技术、费用和时间等条件的限制,无法获得大样本失效寿命数据,因此利用传统的大样本寿命数据统计推断方法进行可靠性建模、分析与评估存在困难。为此,从失效物理分析的角度出发建立性能退化模型,用贝叶斯方法融合性能退化模型和寿命模型得到产品的可靠性评估模型,并基于该模型充分利用失效物理试验中的性能数据和少量的寿命数据来进行可靠性评估。实例分析表明,该方法与伪寿命方法相比更加符合工程实际,评估精度更高。     

韦布尔背景下ODV检测器的筛选性能分析

研究了在韦布尔背景下一种基于ODV的恒虚警检测器。通过连续地使用基于ODV的统计量和相应的假设检验,这种检测器对有序样本进行删除来估计背景的噪声功率水平。在均匀背景及加入干扰两种情况下,通过仿真验证ODV方法的筛选性能。结果表明,ODV方法在韦布尔背景下的筛选性能是理想的,而且此方法不需要知道任何关于背景的先验信息,且具有自适应筛选的优点。     

Outlier resistant adaptive matched filtering

Robust adaptive matched filtering (AMF) whereby outlier data vectors are censored from the covariance matrix estimate is considered in a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) setting. It is known that outlier data vectors whose steering vector is highly correlated with the desired steering vector, can significantly degrade the performance of AMF algorithms such as sample matrix inversion (SMI) or fast maximum likelihood (FML). Four new algorithms that censor outliers are presented which are derived via approximation to the MLE solution. Two algorithms each are related to using the SMI or the FML to estimate the unknown underlying covariance matrix. Results are presented using computer simulations which demonstrate the relative effectiveness of the four algorithms versus each other and also versus the SMI and FML algorithms in the presence of outliers and no outliers. It is shown that one of the censoring algorithms, called the reiterative censored fast maximum likelihood (CFML) technique is significantly superior to the other three censoring methods in stressful outlier scenarios.     

一种飞机电子系统寿命及可靠性预估方法

鉴于多种多种因素影响,航电设备实际寿命与OEM设计寿命往往有较大差异。基于此,采用D-S算法,针对某航空公司UNIT-IRU系列部分设备真实服役数据,建立了单一因素融合和多因素融合设备寿命预估及可靠度计算方法。考虑样本规模的限制,略去计算量的细微差异,后一方法将基本分配概率的不确定性由20%降低到5%左右,表明多因素方法预估结果准确性和可靠度更高,实用性更强。     

基于贮存退化机理的长贮产品序贯检测方法

为了确定发动机等长贮产品满足一定贮存可靠度要求的最优检测方式,提出了基于贮存退化机理的序贯检测方法.分析了长贮产品贮存寿命的退化机理,即不可修部件的自然老化和可修部件的检测均可能造成贮存寿命的退化;然后基于贮存退化机理给出了Weibull分布产品贮存可靠度模型及模型参数估计的最小二乘方法;进一步,根据贮存可靠度要求,给...     

民用飞机系统部件维修间隔确定方法研究

维修方案中规定了各种部件的维修类型和维修间隔,由于各部件的维修类型相对固定,所以维修间隔的确定是制定维修方案的关键。针对这种特点,同时为了能更准确的反应部件实际情况,本文采用飞机部件的使用可靠性数据来确定其维修间隔。为此,针对符合威布尔分布的部件,研究了利用中位秩及最小二乘法对两参数威布尔分布的参数进行估计,并根据其寿...