上海地区台风风特性Monte-Carlo随机模拟研究

收集和整理了1949年至2005年台风年鉴统计资料和上海崇明岛侯家镇气象站逐时(连续)气象观测记录.对于上海近年来两次强台风(麦莎0509和卡努0515)进行了案例分析,表明台风风场的强变异性不容忽视,台风风环境评价采用可靠度分析理论具有相当的优势.Monte-Carlo台风随机模拟结果亦表明极值风速样本分布具有偏态性,由此建议了极值风速估算保证率系数的合理取值.采用Monte-Carlo台风风场随机模型和敏感度分析方法计算了不同场地条件风环境随机参数对于台风极值风速的贡献程度,并对上海地区的台风风场参数合理取值进行了优化.最后,以越界峰值法和广义Pareto分布探讨了工程场地目标重现期内极值风速预测过程,再现了几类典型工程场地台风风环境的梯度风高度、平均风剖面、极值风速和阵风因子取值特点,并与建筑结构荷载规范进行了对比.     

列车的横风倾覆力矩特性

列车的横风倾覆力矩特性包括横风倾覆力矩系数和风速取值两个方面。本文给出了由风洞试验确定的倾覆力矩系数,并对风速取值提出了一些建议。针对风区铁路翻车的特点,给出了计算临界翻车风速的公式。     

傍山地区的强风场特性实测研究

介绍了某傍山地区的强风现场测量研究。采用较高频响的风速风向计与实时数据检测处理系统测得了该地区的风特性，并对一次冬季强风记录进行了分析研究，给出了反映强风脉动特性的两个重要参数-湍流度和阵风系数的关系，指出脉动风速的概率分布直接影响了二者比值大小。此外，通过实测结果与邻近气象站的同期记录比较，发现二者的相关性很差，在整个强风过程中，该地区的最大瞬时风速和平均风速都远远高于气象站的记录，表明傍山地区局部风场有很大的特殊性。     

基于日最大风速记录的建筑群风环境评估方法

提出将各风向的风速比与日最大风速概率分布相结合,进行风环境评估,并按照风速大小划定建筑功能区域的基本方法。首先利用地面风速探头在风洞中对建筑群周边区域的风场进行定量测量,得出不同风向下各测点的风速比。再根据多年日最大风速记录和广义极值分布函数族,得出不同风向的日最大风速概率分布参数。由此即可求出各测点日最大风速超过风速阈值的概率。参照风环境评估准则,可对各区域的舒适度进行定量评估,并对其进行功能分区。通过对某高层建筑群的实验研究,验证了该方法的有效性和简便性,研究结果对建筑设计有直接的指导意义。     

上海地区台风条件风速和雨强联合概率分布统计

选取上海市崇明岛侯家镇气象站纪录的47个台风最大10min时距平均风速和最大雨强作为样本,使用不同的概率分布模型分别对风速和雨强的概率分布参数进行拟合并作拟合优度比较,提出台风条件下风速和雨强联合概率分布函数。优化结果表明,Gumbel Copula函数联合概率分布模型和极值Ⅰ型联合概率分布模型适合描述台风条件下风速和雨强联合概率分布,其中Gumbel Copula函数联合概率分布模型中风速和雨强各自的概率分布模型分别采用极值Ⅲ型概率分布模型和Gamma分布模型。     

风洞试验中风剖面的模拟及近流场特性分析

首先简单介绍了日本东京工艺大学风工程研究中心新建的开环流低速边界层风洞中风剖面模拟的试验情况.基于试验结果,采用被广泛应用的三角尖劈加上布置粗糙元的方法,成功地模拟出日本建筑学会定义的四类不同场地对应的风剖面.通过对试验数据的比较分析,就所采用的立方体粗糙元及三角尖劈对最终模拟得到的风剖面特性的影响进行了比较分析.其次,对风剖面模拟及特性判定中的几个重要问题,如三角尖劈的形状优化、风速功率谱的一致性、积分尺度的分析方法等进行了分析.最后,基于以上分析,对在边界层风洞中模拟预定的风剖面提出几点参考意见.     

利用极值分布概型预测海峡地区风环境期望风速

根据《公路桥梁抗风设计规范》,对于特别重要的桥梁要求对桥址处的设计基本风速进行重新观测或参考实测风速样本进行推算得到,选取合理的基本设计风速。本文选取厦门-漳州跨海大桥附近的厦门市专业气象台和龙海市气象局360个月的极值10分钟平均时距的风速和风向标准值,采用3种极值分布概型推算出不同重现期内的设计风速。得出了厦门海峡桥址处100年一遇的期望风速为35．8m／s,小于规范给出的厦门地区100年一遇基本设计风速39．7m／s。     

大型双曲冷却塔表面脉动风压随机特性——风压极值探讨

针对风压信号呈现的非高斯特性和传统极限估计方法的局限,首次提出基于保证率和相关性的极值估计方法——全概率迭代法进行冷却塔表面脉动风荷载极值分析,并和传统的峰值因子法及改进的Sadek-Simiu法计算结果进行对比验证。结果表明：全概率迭代法避开了对随机过程的高斯分布假定,相比传统的极值估计方法其结果更加真实可靠;表达风压极值中脉动分量的峰值因子数值沿着环向和子午向变化显著,如取为同一数值则偏于危险或过于保守;采用全概率迭代法得到的表面风压系数极值分布曲线与规范取值相比,迎风面和负压峰值区域极值偏小,背风区域极值偏大,且最小值对应角度相差约10°。     

NF—3风洞设计特点

西北工业大学ＮＦ－３风洞气动设计、结构设计和测控系统都有其特点，流场校测和标模实验的结果表明，该风洞的最大风速、能量比、紊流度等重要性能指标上达到国际先进指标。     

GRIB数据及其在航迹预测中的应用

四维航迹预测的准确性是轨迹运行与空管决策支持的基础,而高空风数据支持下的气象建模是提高航迹预测准确性的关键。通过解析GRIB格式的风数据,获取各高度层的风速和风向,同时依据风对地速、航向的影响进行四维航迹预测建模,利用浦东机场的进场航班实现仿真验证,将预测结果与实际雷达轨迹对比,验证了风影响下四维航迹预测的准确性。     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Solar Influence on Earth's Climate

An increasing number of studies indicate that variations in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency is influenced by changing cloud properties via cosmic ray ionisation (the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (<3.2 km). GCR are responsible for nearly all ionisation in the atmosphere below 35 km. One mechanism could involve ion-induced formation of aerosol particles (diameter range, 0.001–1.0 μm) that can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A systematic variation in the properties of CCN will affect the cloud droplet distribution and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment, could influence Earth's radiation budget. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Role of Dynamics in Solar Forcing

This paper reviews the solar influence on climate through stratospheric dynamical processes. There are two possible processes, both being a consequence of the wave-mean flow interaction in the upper stratosphere. One involves changes in the vertical propagation of planetary waves and the resultant tropospheric circulation change in the extratropics of the winter hemisphere. The other involves change in the global meridional circulation in the stratosphere and associated convective activity change in the tropics. These processes have been discussed on an 11-year solar cycle, but they are also applicable for centennial-scale solar influence on climate.     

Aerosol Effects on Clouds and Climate

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics in many ways. They act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei, they may inhibit freezing and they could have an influence on the hydrological cycle. While the cloud albedo enhancement (Twomey effect) of warm clouds received most attention so far and traditionally is the only indirect aerosol forcing considered in transient climate simulations, here I discuss the multitude of effects.     

Solar Variability and the Earth's Climate: Introduction and Overview

Numerous attempts have been made over the years to link various aspects of solar variability to changes in the Earth's climate. There has been growing interest in this possible connection in recent years, spurred largely by the need to understand the natural causes of climate change, against which the expected global warming due to man's activities will have to be detected. The time scale of concern here is that of decades to centuries, and excludes the longer millennial scale in which orbital variations play a dominant role. The field has long been plagued by the lack of an acceptable physical mechanism by which solar variability can affect climate, but the discovery of variability in the Sun's total irradiance (the solar ``constant' of meteorology) by spacecraft instruments has pointed to a direct mechanism. Other less direct mechanisms that have been suggested involve variations in the Sun's ultraviolet flux and in the plasma outflow of the solar wind. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the current state of the field, emphasizing the proposed mechanisms as an introduction to the more detailed papers that follow. The particular case of sea-surface temperature data will be used as an illustration.     

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Control of Earth Radiation and Latent Heat Release Budgets

Aircraft observations and model simulations show that cloud development is strongly modulated by the impact of cloud-aerosol interactions on precipitation forming processes. New insights into the mechanisms by which aerosols dominate the cloud cover of marine shallow clouds suggest that feedbacks between the cloud microstructure and cloud dynamics through precipitation processes play a major role in determining when a solid cloud cover will break up into a field of trade wind cumulus. Cloud-aerosol interactions dominate not only the dynamics of marine shallow clouds, but also the lifetime and the vertical disposition of latent heat of deep convective clouds over ocean and even more strongly over land. Recent coincident satellite measurements of aerosols and cloud properties quantify the aerosol effects on cloud cover and radiative forcing on regional and global scales. The shapes of the satellite retrieved relations between aerosols and cloud properties are consistent with the suggested ways by which aerosols affect clouds via precipitation processes, particularly by affecting the intensity of the cloud vertical air motions and its vertical development.     

外资入陕的制度环境因素

如何有效吸引外商投资，是西部大开发中西部各省所面临的一项重大而又有现实意义的课题。近年来陕西省的引资工作虽然取得一定成效，但与东部各省相比仍存在较大差距，同时也面临西部各省的激烈竞争。作为西部大省的陕西应从制度创新、规范政府行为入手，提高有效制度供给能力，从而在制度安排上切实改善陕西的投资环境，实现投资环境改善和外商投资增长的良性互动。     

我国东南沿海产业集群发展的机理

运用经济学理论对我国沿海地区产业集群发展的经验进行分析，结果表明，地区产业集群的形成是政府采取不平衡发展战略的结果，具有比较优势的主导产业又是形成产业集群网络式的、具有不断创新能力特征的主要依托，完善的市场运行机制、良好的投资环境是产业集群发挥极化效应、扩展效应和回程效应的基础，同时又是带动区域经济发展的动力。     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

创业氛围与环境优化

创业环境的优化是一个内外协同演进的共生过程,培育一定的创业氛围是其中至关重要的中间环节。创业环境包括两个组成部分：内生决定的创业氛围和外部影响的创业条件。现阶段,决定我国创业水平的环境因素是创业氛围,它表现为显在与潜在的创业者行为方式,是一种主观的生态环境。不同区域创业环境优化的政策思路应当有别,落后的中西部地区创业环境建设的关键在于形成一定的创业氛围,否则,客观的创业条件再怎么改善也很难有效刺激创业活动。