Arms control and disarmament in space: the rough road to Vienna 1984: Part I

This article examines the international legal and diplomatic questions relating to arms control and disarmament, focusing on space-based activities. These relate importantly to the development of anti-satellite satellites (ASATs) and ballistic missile defence systems (BMDs). Part I of the article examines the goal of ‘peaceful uses’ of outer space as elaborated in national policies and in international fora, the debate that has has taken place at the international level over the meaning and definition of peaceful purposes, legal manoeuvres, particularly in the UN, and US responses, and recent Soviet initiatives relating to space militarization. Part II will appear in the next issue, and will consider the US Presidential-Congressional dialogue on these questions and recent Presidential initiatives.     

Star wars brought to earth

This article considers the thinking behind, and the ramifications of, President Reagan's Star Wars ‘vision’. The author argues that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) is incompatible with other aspects of the Reagan administration's own defence policies and that the ‘security shield’ version of it would make future US-Soviet arms agreements impossible. Only the so-called ‘prudent hedge’ research looks viable in the longer term. The SDI's main value will have been in bringing the USSR back to the negotiating table.     

Improving international space cooperation: Considerations for the USA

In 2000 there were 40 different countries that had registered space agencies. By 2009 that number had continued to grow to 55. This article discusses how cooperation allows a nation to leverage resource and reduce risk; improve global engagement; and enhance diplomatic prestige of engaged states, political sustainability and workforce stability. The obstacles and impediments to cooperation are substantial, and are manifested through various anti-collaborative behaviors. To achieve success, these obstacles and impediments must be understood and confronted. The article examines the substantial challenges posed by technology transfer constraints, international and domestic politics, and exceptionalism perspectives. Given the imperative to cooperate, four frameworks (cooperation, augmentation, interdependence, and integration) can be employed to overcome these challenges and achieve success.     

The science and politics of an Indian ASAT capability

India has recently stated an intention to develop an anti-satellite (ASAT) capability. The reasons for this may include the country’s growing economic and political clout, alongside the increasing importance of space to this status, the significance of space assets to the military, a perceived threat from China, and fear of being disadvantaged in future treaty negotiations if not ‘in the club’. Nevertheless, development and use of an ASAT would have potentially catastrophic debris-related consequences that would also create major political problems for the user. The state of India’s ASAT activities is described and recommendations on avoiding hasty development, such as researching methods of protecting satellites, strengthening bilateral relations with China and pushing for a legally binding norm on ASATs, are made.     

US and Soviet ballistic missile defence programmes : Implications for the 1972 ABM treaty

This article reviews the key provisions of the ABM Treaty and the major issues of interpretation which need to be resolved. The various phases of the US Strategic Defense Initiative are discussed, showing that permitted SDI research may cross over the prohibited development and testing beginning in 1988. Cooperative research with US allies is discussed in terms of the Treaty constraints. US and Soviet ballistic missile defence programmes are summarized and the major US and Soviet compliance issues, including the Krasnoyarsk radar, are reviewed. The author argues that limitations on defensive systems remain a precondition to limitations on offensive systems. The ABM Treaty should be enhanced by agreed interpretations, a separate ASAT treaty, and perhaps four amendments to the ABM Treaty.     

The SDI agreement between Bonn and Washington: Review of the first four years

This article provides an evaluation of the significance of the memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the US and West German governments in March 1986. The author examines the expectations and fears it created in the FRG and compares them with the reality of actual economic benefit and exchange of information derived: the FRG's influence on arms control; and the effects on its standing and trading relations. The author argues that the MOU has had a negligible effect in securing contracts for West German firms and increasing technological cooperation, while damaging the FRG's standing in the arms control arena.     

Satellite vulnerability: a post-Cold War issue?

The widely discussed use of US reconnaissance satellites during the Gulf War will strongly motivate future regional adversaries to seek ways of countering US space-based assets. The presumption that reconnaissance satellites can operate covertly is obsolete. Tracking US reconnaissance satellites can provide valuable support to a hostile country's concealment and deception programs. Iraq's ability to conceal both major weapons programs and many SCUD launchers is a warning of the serious consequences such programs can have. Space surveillance systems of the type likely to be acquired by Third World countries are inconspicuous and may well go undetected, while direct ascent ASAT rockets are within the reach of many countries. This article argues that fundamental reexamination of the functions and architecture of US overhead reconnaissance is needed, and should be done outside the traditional Cold War bureaucratic structures.     

The contest for leadership in East Asia: Japanese and Chinese approaches to outer space

Japan and China, as two advanced spacefaring nations in Asia-Pacific region, are often referred to as rivals in space. China's successful manned space launch program in 2003 and ASAT test in 2007 were considered as turning points which potentially introduces a “space race in Asia”. This article argues that there are three defining arenas in a space race: competition for prestige or soft power, competition over military capability or hard power, and competition of international services or public goods. It analyzes the objectives, norms and logics of space policy in Japan and China, and argues that these two countries have quite different thinking over what to do in space, explaining that they are playing different games in the first two arenas. However, Japan and China are competing for leadership and influence over the region. APRSAF and APSCO, two similar regional space organizations, are the vehicles for this competition. It concludes that there is a space race only in the third arena as a competition for leadership in Asia.     

The USA and arms control in space: An IR analysis

After years of international stalemate talks on space arms control were finally initiated in Geneva in 2009. The position of the new US administration, however, is still waiting to be defined. This article assesses the advantages and disadvantages of different arms control proposals by looking at them from the perspectives of interdependence theory, neoliberal institutionalism and neo-realism, respectively. They all come to similar conclusions as far as conventional military power and security are concerned: any formal or informal ban on debris-producing activities in space would be highly advantageous to the USA and its allies. When the analysis also takes into account US missile defense policy, however, a neo-realist perspective shows rather mixed results.     

The environmental dimension of space arms control

Current debates on the prevention of an arms race in outer space are dominated by the traditional perspective of international strategic balance. This article addresses the issue through the often-neglected lens of environmental protection, reviewing a number of environmental instruments as they relate to outer space. It argues that environmental protection, as a non-traditional element, is an instrumental impetus for arms control. The current regime leaves the door open for states to develop conventional orbital weapons and ground-based anti-satellite weapons (ASATs), which would have a significant adverse impact on the space environment. Thus the law of environmental protection is deficient in effectively protecting the space environment from pollution resulting from military activities. It is further argued that the space arms control regime should be strengthened for humanity's common interest in a sustainable space environment. Preferably an international treaty should be concluded to prohibit testing, deployment and use of space-based weapons and ASATs. These substantive obligations also conform to the requirements of safeguarding international peace and security, and the security interests of spacefaring countries.     

Remote sensing of natural resources : Legal and political considerations for the Third World

A state's posture on remote sensing of the Earth by orbiting satellites varies depending upon whether it is a ‘sensing’ or a ‘sensed’ state, upon its present economic status, and upon its economic and political history. This article considers the international legal questions related to remote sensing and discusses the political aspects with special emphasis upon the views of the Third World. The author concludes that, unless Third World states and others who support them alter their views somewhat, it is probable that remote sensing of natural resources will continue without specific legal guidelines.     

Satellite broadcasting in Europe : The politics of standardization

European Community action on broadcasting standards is desperately needed. This article examines the issue of technical standards, by looking first at the MAC packets directive on European standards for DBA transmission. It then considers high-definition television and the search for global standards. The author concludes by drawing some lessons regarding the European Community's involvement in high technology, and its role in broadcasting in particular.     

European thoughts on the new US defence strategy: A major repositioning in a difficult budgetary context

The USA adopted a new defence strategy in 2012 which responds to the changing geopolitical landscape and straightened economic circumstances. The emphasis is on leaner, more flexible and diversified operations, while priority areas have shifted from Europe to the Asia-Pacific (in acknowledgement of China's growing military might) and the Middle East. This will have consequences for Europe, which is now expected to take a greater share of the strategic burden. The major developments in the strategy – such as eschewing the pursuit of lengthy engagements on more than one front, and using the military to complement diplomatic and economic initiatives – are discussed. Europe is urged to respond by maintaining its national strategic and industrial autonomy, including in access to space and missile defence.     

Remote sensing and strengthening European security

Remote sensing and the use of satelites to monitor compliance with arms control and disarmament agreements have been among the focal points of the International Space Year. The interdisciplinary research project, Remote Sensing and European Security, is addressing this question. This article gives a brief survey of the latest developments in the field and summarizes the project's findings.     

Space spin-offs: Making them known, improving their use

This paper identifies new ideas for using existing space technologies as spin-offs and considers the effectiveness of the use of such technologies for various industries and applications. It then explores the dissemination of knowledge and information about such spin-off technology and applications to various audiences. It proposes methods to improve the dissemination of such knowledge and information. The paper concludes with some recommendations on how the dissemination of information about space spin-offs can increase awareness and use of such technology and, in the long term, increase support for space activities. The perspective of this article is that of the world's various space agencies and the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS). It is recognized that truly effective spin-offs depend on the involvement of those outside the space arena, particularly the commercial, academic and governmental sectors. These sectors and the general public must see the value and cost efficiency of ‘spin-offs’ and of developing new technology and systems through space research programs or they will not succeed. This may require space agencies to stay more focused on research and to hand over functions and activities to these ‘outside sectors’ once ‘seeds are planted’.     

Orbiting spies—opportunities and challenges

The great improvement in civil observation satellite capabilities over the past two decades—such that the image quality of civil and military satellites is now converging—is demonstrated with the aid of illustrations. The advantages of such progress, eg. new tools for treaty verification, are discussed. Potential problems, including censorship and denial of access to images of one's own country, which may conflict with the UN Remote Sensing Principles, are also highlighted. It is suggested that work on an ASAT treaty should be made a priority for the future.     

Enacting Japan's Basic Law for space activities: Revolution or evolution?

In June 2012, four whole years after the Basic Space Law mandated a fundamental reorientation of Japan's space policy objectives towards applications, including national security and the use of space as a diplomatic tool, legislation was passed by Japan's Diet that alters who controls Japan's space policy. The new legislation involves a curious compromise between competing aims and objectives of different parts of Japan's central bureaucracy. But it also clearly represents a break from the past and potentially a decisive step toward new directions for Japan's governmental space efforts. Contextualizing the deeper and immediate background, this article seeks to elucidate just how deep, or indeed shallow, some of the forthcoming changes are.     

Paxsat and progress in arms control : Canadian research focuses on remote sensing applications

Verification of arms control treaties is essential to provide adequate international confidence in treaty compliance. This Viewpoint underlines the responsibility of non-superpower countries to become more closely involved in space surveillance of treaties to which they are parties. In Canada, Paxsat research has focused on two potential applications of space-based remote sensing to multi-lateral arms control verification. The necessary technology is readily available in non-superpower countries for the Paxsat concept to be put into operation.     

Outer space and cosmopolitics

The two superpowers engaged in power politics on Earth, the USA and the USSR, have devoted great financial and technical efforts to the exploration, control and use of outer space, primarily to gain power-political advantages. This article considers the issue of power politics in outer space. The history and the instruments of ‘cosmopolitical power’ are discussed, as well as the attempts to limit the superpowers' dominance. A united Western Europe is seen to have a major role to play in providing a counterbalance to the concentration of space power.