Opportunities from space

This article reports on two of the main sessions at the “Space: Technology and Opportunity” conference, Geneva, May 1985, organized by Online Conferences Ltd, Pinner Green House, Ash Hill Drive, Pinner, Middlesex HA5 2AE, UK, from whom the proceedings are available.     

History of UK contribution to astronautics: Politics and government

In all developed countries, once it emerged from the amateur era, Space (and especially rocketry) moved on the public agenda because of its potential significance for both the civil and military policies of governments (coupled with its appetite for new money). In the UK the policy treatment of Space broadly paralleled that in other countries until the post-Empire trauma, the burn-out of the White-Hot Technological revolution of Harold Wilson, and the financial crises of the 1970s exhausted the public appetite for large scale publicly funded projects in high technology. The culmination for Space of these pressures came in 1986–1987 when the UK rejected the emerging international consensus and, almost alone, stayed outside the manned space commitments which developed into the International Space Station. In this paper, Colin Hicks will review the UK political developments which led up to the 1986–1987 decision and how the politics and organisation of UK space activity have developed since then to the point where in 2008 a major government review of the UK involvement in manned space was commissioned.     

The new UK civil space strategy, 2008–2012

The UK civil space strategy for the years 2008–2012 and beyond was published in February 2008. This paper describes the key features of the strategy and highlights those areas that are new or different from the aims set out in previous strategies. In particular, the strategy lays out a new five-part high-level vision for UK civil space.     

Creating a UK human spaceflight capability: A modest proposal

Since the beginning of international manned activity in the early 1960s, UK governments have consistently avoided participation in human spaceflight, with its high cost and doubts over the resulting scientific gains generally cited as the reasons for opting out. This has resulted in the UK scientific community having no direct access to microgravity science experiments, while the education establishment has missed out on the gains to be had from scientific and technology inspiration for young people. It also makes realistic involvement in the future international manned exploration of the Moon and the solar system unlikely. A viable, low-cost programme could be implemented in the near future to allow for a modest UK manned access to the International Space Station. This need only cost around £50 million over five years, representing about a 5% increase in the current annual UK civil space budget, with funding sought from government departments, research councils and private industry. Making use of Soyuz commercial flights, the project would allow for two separate 10-day science missions. The small corps of three UK astronauts established for the project would form a modest ‘seed-corn’ for future international orbital, lunar and solar system manned exploration involvement for the UK. The benefits of this project would cover science research, education outreach, industrial employment and involvement in international cooperation in manned exploration of the cosmos, as well as in the microgravity research being undertaken by NASA and others.     

Commercialization of space — the investment opportunities

This report by Ray Williamson of the US Office of Technology Assessment, looks at the prospects for commercialization of space into the 21st century and discusses the relative benefits of private v government investment. The report is taken from a revised version of an article originally appearing in the October 1982 issue of Futures. A fully updated paper will appear in Michiel Schwarz and Paul Stares (eds), ‘The Exploitation of Space: Policy Trends in the Military and Commercial Uses of Space’ (Butterworths, Guildford, UK, 1985).     

Reviewing UK space exploration

This is an edited version of the Executive Summary of a report produced to advise government ministers on the options for UK involvement in space exploration. It sets out four options – from reduced involvement through robotic-only to a fully integrated human and robotic involvement – and discusses the economic and social benefits of each. Given other countries’ interest in pursuing exploration, timing is of the essence.     

BNSC/RAS Town Meeting

In London on 20 September, the British National Space Centre and the Royal Astronomical Society convened a ‘Town Meeting’, a usage picked up from NASA. Basically it was a debate without the competetive element, whose topic was the next two of the European Space Agency's four ‘Cornestone’ projects for the ‘Horizon 2000’ programme, total budget 584 million ECU (about £467 million). The question in September was which would be no. 3 and which no. 4. Duncan Lunan reports on the discussion and the choices made.     

Pricing competitively — a response to Jay Lightfoot

A recent paper in this journal criticized the two methods commonly used to allocate the costs of multi-payload launches, and proposed two new alternatives. The paper argued that ‘Shapley-value’ pricing and the ‘Independent Cost Proportional Scheme’ are immune to instability problems possible under the traditional mass-proportional approach, and reduce ‘subsidies’ paid to small payloads. This rejoinder shows that neither claim is true in general. It also questions whether new pricing formulas are truly needed — or even sustainable in today's competitive market.     

The impact of launch vehicle type and size on development cost

The technical development trend of future launch vehicle systems is towards fully reusable systems, in order to reduce space transportation cost. However, different types of launch vehicles are feasible, as there are

• —winged two-stage systems (WTS)

• —ballistic single-stage vehicles (BSS)

• —ballistic two-stage vehicles (BTS)

The performance of those systems is compared according to the present state of the art as well as the development cost, based on the “TRANSCOST-Model”. The development costs are shown versus launch mass (GLOW) and pay-load for the three types of reusable systems mentioned above.It is shown that performance optimization and cost minimization lead to different results. It is more economic to increase the vehicle size for achieving higher performance, instead of increasing technical complexity.Finally it is described that due to the essentially lower launch cost of reusable vehicles it will be feasible to recover the development cost by an amortization charge on the launch cost. This possibility, however, would allow commercial funding of future launch vehicle developments.     

Life and intelligence in the universe from nanobiological principles: A survey and budget of concepts and perspectives

The new-born bioscience called Nanobiology has tackled the problems of the possibility of existence of extraterrestrial life and intelligence and of biosystem distribution in the Universe, as such questions actually belong to the realm of Theoretical Biology. The central, and yet unanswered points of such science have been reinvestigated by attempting knowledge and control of the hard-to-determine nanoscale-level classical and quantum interactions, which would supposedly give mechanistic, definite answers, both informationally and energetically, to the vexing questions put by biosystems to science: is the “living state” a physically definible concept, and how to define it? Are nanoscale kinetics or even detailed mechanics involved in the origin of life? What about intelligence, consciousness and their nanophysical roots? Are “life” and “intelligence” engineerable properties, or is any Artificial Intelligence program bound to mere metaphors? Self-organization, studied at the thermodynamic and the hydrodynamic level, showed the possibility of chemical evolution from amino acids, probably of cometary and/or meteoritic origin, up to spatiotemporal organization, autopoiesis and biological evolution, but didn't explain the origins of life. Questioning the uniqueness of the earthly evolutionary chemistry is cardinal for the ETI dilemma, as from a budgetary appraisal of perspectives in bionanoscale chaotic undecidable dynamics, quantum gravity and quantum vacuum, both “living state” and “intelligence” look like nonlocal, spacetime-linked cosmic phenomena.     

Perturbation solutions for variable energy blast waves

The trajectory of and the flow field behind blast waves with time varying energy input is determined. Freeman's (1968) Lagrangean coordinate formulation is modified to include both the geometric factor, α, for plane, cylindrical and spherical shocks and also non-integer values of β, the energy input parameter, in a single computational algorithm. Numerical problems associated with vanishing density at the inner mass boundary or “piston face” are then examined and solved. Second order perturbation solutions about the solution for an infinite strength shock are then obtained in Sakurai's (1965) inverse shock Mach number expansion parameter for 0 β < α + 1. Tables and graphs of significant numerical coefficients are presented for comparison to, and extension of, results of other authors. Graphs of typical shock trajectories and flow field density, pressure and velocity variations are also presented and discussed.     

The regulatory challenges of ensuring commercial human spaceflight safety

Space tourism is the term commonly used to refer to ordinary members of the public buying tickets to travel to space and back, but has recently become more broadly associated with “any commercial activity offering customers direct or indirect experience with space travel”. The nascent commercial human spaceflight market presents a challenge to regulators with regard to the potential certification and licensing of the flight vehicles and their use (both within and outside the atmosphere), from the perspective of the operator, the flight participants, and third parties who might be affected by the operations. The UK is currently reviewing the issues posed by this emerging sector and its licensing/certification authorities are considering how best to balance their statutory responsibilities with the need to facilitate the development of this new industry and the favour positioning of UK players, eliminating unnecessary regulatory barriers to participation.     

Gravitational Sensitivity of Solutions–Melts at the Crystallization of Two-Phase InSb–InBi Alloys under Space Conditions

Analyzing the results of space and ground-based experiments carried out in the Baikov Institute of Metallurgy and Materials Science to study the processes of the melting and crystallization of two-phase InSb–InBi alloys of an indium–antimony–bismuth (In–Sb– Bi) triple system, we have demonstrated the gravitational sensitivity of the InSb-based solution– melt. It manifests itself as a certain asymmetry of the boundary of the dissolution of the InSb ingot by the InSb–InBi melt and heterogeneity of the melt along this boundary depending on the magnitude and direction of the gravity force acceleration gin the range (1–10^–3–10^–5)g ₀, where g ₀is the acceleration of the gravity force on Earth. For the first time, it is established in the experiments under analysis that the homogeneity of melts of a complex composition with components of various densities can be reached only at magnitudes of quasistationary (residual) microaccelerations g< 10^–6 g ₀.     

Space commercialization and the law

This article examines the current legal status of commercial activities in space and describes the legislation — both national and international — existing for their regulation. The question of who is responsible for the action of non-governmental entities is thoroughly discussed, as is the notion of freedom of enterprise. Finally the author looks at the most commercialized areas of space activities — telecommunications and Earth observations — before drawing some conclusions on likely future trends in the privitization and regulation of space activities.     

Switzerland and space – how a small country succeeds

Is it possible for small nations to get their concerns aired or improve their industries and economies in the field of space activities? In this edited version of a speech to the international symposium on ‘The History of the European Space Agency’, held in London, 11–13 November 1998, the author demonstrates that, through judicious cooperative endeavour within the framework of ESA, and a willingness to put forward solutions rather than harping on problems, it is. Switzerland’s role in the foundation of ESA is discussed, along with various successful initiatives taken by the country. The particular difficulties presented by the country’s constitution – and how they have been overcome – are also examined. The author concludes with some thoughts on the present and futute state of space affairs in Europe.     

Star wars brought to earth

This article considers the thinking behind, and the ramifications of, President Reagan's Star Wars ‘vision’. The author argues that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) is incompatible with other aspects of the Reagan administration's own defence policies and that the ‘security shield’ version of it would make future US-Soviet arms agreements impossible. Only the so-called ‘prudent hedge’ research looks viable in the longer term. The SDI's main value will have been in bringing the USSR back to the negotiating table.     

Future launchers strategy : the ariane 2010 initiative

With the new cryogenic upper stage ESC, the European heavy launcher Ariane 5+ is perfectly suited to the space market envisioned for the coming decade: flexible to cope with any payload and commercially attractive despite a fierce competition.Current Arianespace projections for the following years 2010–2020 indicate two major trends:

• satellites may still become larger and may require very different final orbits; today's market largely dominated by GEO may well evolve, influenced by LEO operations such as those linked to ISS or by constellations,

• to remain competitive, the launch cost has to be reduced.

The future generation of the European heavy launcher has therefore to focus on an ever increased flexibility with a drastic cost reduction.Two strategies are possible to achieve this double goal:

• reusable launchers, either partially or totally, may ease the access to space, limiting costly expendable stages; the assessment of their technical feasibility and financial viability is undergoing in Europe under the Future Launchers Technology Program (FLTP),

• expendable launchers, derived from the future Ariane 5+.

This second way started by CNES at the end of year 1999 is called the “Ariane 2010 initiative”.The main objectives are simultaneously an increase of 25% in performance and a reduction of 30% in launch cost wrt Ariane 5+.To achieve these very ambitious goals, numerous major modifications are studied:

• technical improvements :

◦ modifications of the Solid Rocket Boosters may consist in filament winding casing, increased loading, simplified casting, improved grain, simplified Thrust Vector Control, …

◦ evolution of the Vulcain engine leading to higher efficiency despite a simplified design, flow separation controlled nozzle extension, propellant management of the two cryogenic stages,

◦ simplified electrical system,

◦ increased standardization, for instance on flanged interfaces and manufacturing processes,

• operational improvements such as launch cycle simplification and standardization of the coupled analyses,

• organizational improvements such as a redistribution of responsibilities for the developments.

All these modifications will of course not be implemented together; the aim is to have a coherent catalogue of improvements in order to enable future choices depending on effective requirements. These basic elements will also be considered for the development of other launchers, in the small or medium size range.     

SPS — time for a pilot plant

Scientists have expended much energy researching SPS but their theories have never yet been realistically tested. It is time for this to change and SPS 2000 — a Japanese-sponsored project to construct and operate a pilot plant to supply electricity to residents of equatorial zones — could provide the means. The project and its benefits are described and the political—economic imperatives for undertaking it presented. The author argues that there are cogent — and practical — reasons for funding a pilot plant, especially given the vast sums spent on other space activities, and on nuclear power, although the latter has never lived up to expectations.