Relationships between energetic storm particle events and interplanetary shocks driven by full and partial halo coronal mass ejections

We have analysed energetic storm particle (ESP) events in 116 interplanetary (IP) shocks driven by front-side full and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with speeds $>$400 km s^?1during the years 1996–2015. We investigated the occurrence and relationships of ESP events with several parameters describing the IP shocks, and the associated CMEs, type II radio bursts, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Most of the shocks (57 %) were associated with an ESP event at proton energies $>$1 MeV.The shock transit speeds from the Sun to 1 AU of the shocks associated with an ESP event were significantly greater than those of the shocks without an ESP event, and best distinguished these two groups of shocks from each other. The occurrence and maximum intensity of the ESP events also had the strongest dependence on the shock transit speed compared to the other parameters investigated. The correlation coefficient between ESP peak intensities and shock transit speeds was highest (0.73 $\pm$ 0.04) at 6.2 MeV. Weaker dependences were found on the shock speed at 1 AU, Alfvénic and magnetosonic Mach numbers, shock compression ratio, and CME speed. On average all these parameters were significantly different for shocks capable to accelerate ESPs compared to shocks not associated with ESPs, while the differences in the shock normal angle and in the width and longitude of the CMEs were insignificant.The CME-driven shocks producing energetic decametric–hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts and high-intensity SEP events proved to produce also more frequently ESP events with larger particle flux enhancements than other shocks. Together with the shock transit speed, the characteristics of solar DH type II radio bursts and SEP events play an important role in the occurrence and maximum intensity of ESP events at 1 AU.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Energetic particle acceleration by coronal mass ejections

The current paradigm for the source of large, gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events is that theyare accelerated in coronal/interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Early studies established that there is a rough correlation between the logs of the CME speed and the logs of the SEP intensities. Here I review two topics challenging the basic paradigm, the recent discovery that CMEs are also associated with impulsive, high-Z rich SEP events and the search for gradual SEP sources other than CME-driven shocks. I then discuss three topics of recent interest dealing with the relationship between the shock or CME properties and the resulting SEP events. These are the roles that CME accelerations, interactions between fast and preceding slow CMEs, and widths of fast CMEs may play in SEP production.     

Enhancement of solar wind low-energy energetic particles as precursor of geomagnetic disturbance in operational geomagnetic forecast

A study of the relationship between solar wind low-energy energetic particles using data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) onboard the Advanced Compositional Explorer spacecraft (ACE) and geomagnetic activity using data from Canadian magnetic observatories in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone was carried out for a period spanning 1997–2005. Full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were used to gauge the initial particle enhancements and the subsequent geomagnetic activity. It was found that maximum geomagnetic activity is related to maximum particle enhancements in a non-linear fashion. Quadratic fit of the data results in expressions that can be easily used in an operational space weather setting to forecast geomagnetic disturbance quantitatively. A superposed epoch analysis shows increase in particle flux level starts hours before geomagnetic activity attains its peak, affirming the precursory nature of EPAM particles for the impending geomagnetic impact of CME. This can supplement the decision process in formulating geomagnetic warning after the launch of CME from the Sun but before the arrival of shock at Earth. The empirical relationships between solar wind low-energy energetic particles and geomagnetic activity revealed in this statistical study can be easily codified, and thus utilized in operational space weather forecast to appraise the geoeffectiveness of the CME and to provide a quantitative forecast for maximum geomagnetic activity in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone after the occurrence of a CME.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.     

Coronal mass ejection interaction and particle acceleration during the 2001 April 14–15 events

Two successive solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with fast and wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on 2001 April 14 and 15 are compared. The weak SEP event of April 14 associated with an 830 km/s CME and an M1.0 flare was the largest impulsive event of cycle 23. The April 15 event, the largest ground level event of cycle 23, was three orders of magnitude more intense than the April 14^th event and was associated with a faster CME (1200 km/s) and an X14.4 flare. We compiled and compared all the activities (flares, CMEs, interplanetary conditions and radio bursts) associated with the two SEP events to understand the intensity difference between them. Different coronal and interplanetary environments of the two events (presence of preceding CME and seed particles ahead of the April 15 event) may explain the intensity difference.     

Synoptic observations of coronal transients and their interplanetary consequences

A small coronagraph has been placed in orbit to monitor the sun's outer corona from 2.5 to 10.0 solar radii, and five years of nearly continuous synoptic observations have now been completed. Rapid and sensitive image processing techniques have been developed to screen the data for transient phenomena, particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs). About 50,000 coronal images have been examined, out of a five-year total of 68,000, and a standardized listing of more than 1,200 coronal transients for the period 1979–1982 has been prepared. These data have been analysed in the light of other available information, particularly on conditions in the interplanetary plasma. The dynamical characteristics of the active corona, as they are beginning to emerge from the data, are presented. We find that coronal mass ejections exercise significant influence on the interplanetary solar wind. They are the source of disturbances that are frequent and energetic, that tend to be somewhat focussed, that often reach shock intensity, and that propagate to large heliocentric distances, sometimes causing major geomagnetic storms.     

Modeling of “gradual” solar energeticparticle events using a stochastic differential equation method

We have modeled “gradual” solar energetic particle events through numerical simulations using a StochasticDifferential Equation (SDE) method. We consider that energetic particle events are roughly divided into two groups: (1) where the shock was driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with large solar flares, and (2) where they have no related solar events apart from the CMEs. (The detailed classification of energetic particle events was discussed in our previous paper.) What we call “gradual” solar energetic particle events belong to the former group. Particles with energies greater than 10 MeV are observed within several hours after the occurrence of flares and CMEs in many gradual events. By applying the SDE method coupled with particle splitting to diffusive acceleration, we found that an injection of high energy particles is necessary for early enhancement of such a high-energy proton flux and that it should not be presumed that the solar wind particles act as the seed population.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

用银河宇宙线判定几个引起特大磁暴CME的运动方向

利用位于南北极尖区位置的McMurdo和Thule台站的宇宙线强度的观测数据，分析了几个引起特大磁暴CME的来向．分析结果表明，所选的与4个特大磁暴相关的CME基本是朝正对磁层顶的方向运动并与磁层作用的．通过对引起第23周两个特大磁暴的CME特征分析对照，发现CME的来向是影响磁暴强弱的一个因素．同样条件下，运动方向偏向地球一侧的CME引起的磁暴比正对地球的CME引起的磁暴要弱。     

Acceleration and transport of energeticparticles at CME-driven shocks

Historically, solar energetic particle (SEP) events are classified in two classes as “impulsive” and “gradual”. Whether there is a clear distinction between the two classes is still a matter of debate, but it is now commonly accepted that in large “gradual” SEP events, Fermi acceleration, also known as diffusive shock acceleration, is the underlying acceleration mechanism. At shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), particles are accelerated diffusively at the shock and often reach > MeV energies (and perhaps up to GeV energies). As a CME-driven shock propagates, expands and weakens, the accelerated particles can escape ahead of the shock into the interplanetary medium. These escaping energized particles then propagate along the interplanetary magnetic field, experiencing only weak scattering from fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In this paper, we use a Monte-Carlo approach to study the transport of energetic particles escaping from a CME-driven shock. We present particle spectra observed at 1 AU. We also discuss the particle “crossing number” at 1AU and its implication to particle anisotropy. Based on previous models of particle acceleration at CME-driven shocks, our simulation allows us to investigate various characteristics of energetic particles arriving at various distances from the sun. This provides us an excellent basis for understanding the observations of high-energy particles made at 1 AU by ACE and WIND.     

CME-geometry and cosmic-ray anisotropy observed by a prototype muon detector network

We analyze the cosmic-ray anisotropy observed by a prototype network of muon detectors during geomagnetic storms associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The network currently consists of multidirectional surface muon detectors at Nagoya (Japan) and Hobart (Australia), together with a prototype detector at São Martinho (Brazil) which has been in operation since March, 2001. In this report, we analyze the anisotropy recorded in both the muon detector and neutron monitor (the Spaceship Earth) networks and find significant enhancements of cosmic-ray anisotropy during geomagnetic storms. Following the analysis by Bieber and Evenson [Bieber, J.W., Evenson, P. CME geometry in relation to cosmic ray anisotropy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 (1998) 2955–2958] for the neutron monitor data at 10 GeV, we also derive cosmic-ray density gradients from muon data at higher-energy (50 GeV), possibly reflecting the larger-scale geometry of CMEs causing geomagnetic storms. We particularly find in some events the anisotropy enhancement clearly starting prior to the storm onset in both the muon and neutron data. This is the first result of the CME-geometry derived from simultaneous observations of the anisotropy with networks of multidirectional muon detectors and neutron monitors.     

On the early phase of relativistic solar particle events: Are there signatures of acceleration mechanism?

Many physical processes precede and accompany the solar energetic particles (SEP) occurrence on the Earth’s orbit. Explosive energy release on the Sun gives rise to a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME). X-ray and gamma emissions are believed to be connected with flares. Radio emission is signature of disturbances traveling through the corona and interplanetary space. Particles can gain energy both in the flare and the accompanying wave processes. The beginning of the SEP events has the advantage of being the phase most close to the time of acceleration. Influence of interplanetary transport is minimal in the case of first arriving relativistic solar protons recorded by ground based neutron monitors in so called ground-level enhancements (GLE). The early phase of the SEP events attracts attention of many scientists searching for the understanding of particle acceleration. However, they come to the opposite conclusions. While some authors find arguments for coronal mass ejections as a sole accelerator of SEPs, others prove a flare to be the SEP origin. Here, the circumstances of SEP generation for several GLEs of the 23rd solar cycle are considered. Timing of X-ray, CME, and radio emissions shows a great variety from event to event. However, the time of particle ejection from the Sun is closer to maximum of X-ray emission than to any other phenomena considered. No correlation is found between the particle fluxes and the CME characteristics.     

Coronal mass ejection speeds measured in the solar corona using LASCO C2 and C3 images

In this work we present height-time diagrams of 2 halo coronal mass ejections, observed on September 28th, 1997 and June 29th, 1999. The CMEs were observed by the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO), which observes the solar corona from 2 to 32 solar radii. To obtain these diagrams we divide the LASCO images of a given sequence in angular slices, transform them into rectangular slices (their width chosen proportional to the time distance to the next image) and place them side by side. Thus, the speed profile of any pattern moving in the particular latitudinal slice can be derived. With this method we were able to identify even minor speed changes in several angular positions for the chosen events. This technique is particularly appropriate to identify acceleration or deceleration of structures in halo CMEs.     

CMEs and active regions on the sun

The relationship between active regions (ARs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is studied. For this purpose a statistical analysis of 694 CMEs associated with ARs was carried out. We considered the relationship between properties of the CMEs and ARs characterized using the McIntosh classification. We demonstrated that CMEs are likely to be launched from ARs in the mature phase of their evolution when they have complex magnetic field. The fastest and halo CMEs can be ejected only from the most complex ARs (when an AR is a bipolar group of spots with large asymmetric penumbras around the main spot with many smaller spots in the group). We also showed that the wider events have a tendency to originate from uncomplicated magnetic structures. This tendency was used for estimation of the real angular widths of the halo CMEs. The probability of launching of fast CMEs increases together with increase of the complexity and size of ARs. The widest, but slow, CMEs originate from the simplest magnetic structure which are still able to produce CMEs. Our results could be useful for forecasting of space weather.     

Source investigation of impulsive He-rich particle events

We have investigated the source characteristic and coronal magnetic field structure of six impulsive solar energetic particle (SEP) events selected from Wang et al. [Wang, Y.-M., Pick, M., Mason, G.M. Coronal holes, jets, and the origin of ³He-rich particle events. ApJ 639, 495, 2006] and Pick et al. [Pick, M., Mason, G.M., Wang, Y.-M., Tan, C., Wang, L. Solar source regions for ³He-rich solar energetic particle events identified using imaging radio, optical, and energetic particle observations. ApJ 648, 1247, 2006]. Some results are obtained: first, 2 events are associated with wide (≈100°) CMEs (hereafter wide CME events), another 4 events are associated with narrow (?40°) CMEs (hereafter narrow CME events); second, the coronal magnetic field configuration of narrow CME events appear more simple than that of the wide CME events; third, the photospheric magnetic field evolutions of all these events show new emergence of fluxes, while one case also shows magnetic flux cancellation; fourth, the EUV jets usually occurred very close to the footpoint of the magnetic field loop, while meter type III bursts occurred near or at the top of the loop and higher than EUV jets. Furthermore, the heights of type III bursts are estimated from the result of the coronal magnetic field extrapolations.     

On the association of eruptive prominences, coronal holes and current sheets with the coronal mass ejections

In this paper, a study of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by Solar Maximum Mission satellite (SMM) during the period March – September, 1980, is presented. An attempt to identify various possible associations of the solar phenomena, for example, the location of coronal holes, the role of eruptive filaments or prominences, and current-sheets with the CMEs is carried out. It is shown that the combined associations of these three play an important role in the occurrence of geoeffective CMEs and also act as a tool to predict the associated geomagnetic activity.     

Study of CME transit speeds for the event of 07-NOV-2004

Several methods for CME speed estimation are discussed. These include velocity derivation based on the frequency drifts observed in metric and decametric radio wave data using a range of coronal density models. Coronagraph height–time plots allow measurement of plane-of-sky and expansion speeds. These in turn can enable propagation speeds to be derived from a range of empirical relations. Simple geometric e.g., cone, models can provide propagation velocity estimates for suitable halo or partial halo events. Interplanetary scintillation observations allow speed estimates at large distances from the Sun detecting in particular the deceleration of the faster CMEs. Related interplanetary shocks and the arrival times and speeds of the associated magnetic clouds at Earth can also be considered. We discuss the application of some of these methods to the transit to Earth of a complex CME that originated earlier than 16:54 U.T. on 07-NOV-2004. The difficulties in making velocity estimates from radio observations, particularly under disturbed coronal conditions, are highlighted.