A neural network-based ionospheric model for Arecibo

The Arecibo Observatory (18°N, 66°W) has the world’s largest single dish antenna (300 m diameter). Beyond radio astronomy it can also operate as an incoherent scatter radar and in that mode its figure-of-merit makes it also one of the most powerful world-wide. For the present purpose all electron density data available on the web, from the beginning with the first erratic measurements in 1966 up to 2004 inclusive, were downloaded. The measurements range from about 100 km to beyond 700 km and are essentially evenly distributed, i.e. not dedicated to measure specific geophysical events. From manually edited/inspected data a neural network (NN) was established with season, hour of the day, solar activity and Kp as the input parameters. The performance of this model is checked against a – likewise NN based – global model of foF2, a measure of the maximum electron density of the ionosphere. Considering the diverse data sources and assumptions of the two models it can be concluded that they agree remarkably well.     

The electron formations under the radiation belts at L-shells 1.2–1.9

We continue to analyze the distribution of electron fluxes with energy 30–500 keV under the radiation belts at low and middle latitudes (L = 1.2–1.9) using experimental data obtained onboard ACTIVE satellite. Special attention is given to altitudinal distribution of electron fluxes and detailed analysis of these electron formations. We observe three main regions of electron flux registration that seem to exist constantly under the radiation belts. These regions are: magneto-conjugated to SAA region (in the north hemisphere), local zone of low intense electron flux accumulation to the west of SAA, and extensive region in the north hemisphere to the east. The analysis of experimental data obtained from ACTIVE satellite (orbit height 500–2500 km) shows that electron fluxes are registered in the wide altitude range up to 1100 km. It is shown that these formations have complicated initial structure with two regions of flux maximums: at L = 1.3 and L = 1.6–1.8. We compare particle data with low frequency (LF) data (ARIEL-4 satellite) and high frequency (HF) data (CORONAS-I satellite). Also we discuss the possible mechanisms of the appearance of these formations under the radiation belts.     

Sunspot numbers,interplanetary magnetic field,and cosmic ray intensity at earth: Nexus for the twentieth century

The pivotal role played by the interplanetary magnetic field (B) in modulating galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the heliosphere is described. We show that the inverse correlation observed by Forbush (1958) between GCRs and sunspot numbers (SSNs) is reflected in high correlation between SSNs and B (cc = 0.94). The SSN data are available since 1700 and the derived B data since 1835. The paleo-cosmic ray data are available for several millennia in the form of ¹⁰Be radionuclide sequestered in polar ice. The data of the ion chambers (ICs) at the Cheltenham–Fredericksburg–Yakutsk (CFY) sites are combined to create a data string for 1937–1988. In turn, these data are used to extend the measurements of the low energy GCR ions (>0.1 GeV) at balloon altitudes at high latitudes in Russia to 1937. These data are then correlated to B and the fit parameters are used to extend the low energy ion data to 1900, creating the instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century. The derived GCR time series is compared to ¹⁰Be measured at two sites in Greenland, namely Dye 3 and NGRIP for 1900–2000 to check the internal consistency of datasets for the long-term trend. We find that the annual mean rate (%) for 1965 at NGRIP is an outlier. We replace it with the mean of 1964 and 1965 rates and construct a new re-normalized time series at NGIP, improving the agreement with the derived instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century as well. This should encourage its use by heliophysics community for varied applications.     

Response of the extratropical middle atmosphere to the September 2002 major stratospheric sudden warming

The effects of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) at extratropical latitudes have been investigated with wind and temperature observations over a Brazilian station, Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45°W) during September–October 2002. In response to the warming at polar latitudes a corresponding cooling at tropical and extratropical latitudes is prominent in the stratosphere. A conspicuous signature of latitudinal propagation of a planetary wave of zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2 from polar to low latitude has been observed during the warming period. The polar vortex which split into two parts of different size is found to travel considerably low latitude. Significant air mass mixing between low and high latitudes is caused by planetary wave breaking. The meridional wind exhibits oscillations of period 2–4 days during the warming period in the stratosphere. No wave feature is evident in the mesosphere during the warming period, although a 12–14 day periodicity is observed after 2 weeks of the warming event, indicating close resemblance to the results of other simultaneous investigations carried out from high latitude Antarctic stations. Convective activity over the present extratropical station diminishes remarkably during the warming period. This behavior is possibly due to destabilization and shift of equatorial convective active regions towards the opposite hemisphere in response to changes in the mean meridional circulation in concert with the SSW.     

On mid-term periodicities of high-latitude solar activity

The mid-term periodicities of polar faculae are studied separately for the total disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun for a time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. Apart from the 11-year Schwabe cycle which is the fundamental period and is found in all of the three time series, the following prominent results are found: (1) the rotational periodicity of solar activity at high latitudes is approximately from 28 to 32 days; (2) a large number of quasi-periods appearing in low-latitude solar activity (annual variation, 1.3–1.7 years, quasi-biennial oscillation, and 4–5 years) also exist in polar faculae; (3) the periodicities on both hemispheres are not identical.     

Polarization pattern of low and mid-frequency magnetic pulsations in the polar cap: A comprehensive analysis at Terra Nova Bay (Antarctica)

The polarization pattern of ULF pulsations (f ≈ 1–100 mHz) at Terra Nova Bay (Antarctica, CGM λ ∼ 80°) has been determined for the entire 2003, soon after the solar maximum. A comparison with the results of previous investigations, conducted at the same station close to the solar minimum (1994–96), allows to focus common elements and major differences among different frequency bands which persist through the entire solar cycle. Basically, between f ∼ 1.5 and 5 mHz, the day can be divided into four sectors with alternate polarizations. The local time and latitudinal dependence of the observed pattern can be tentatively interpreted in terms of a latitude of resonant field lines reaching λ ∼ 80° in the noon sector; on the other hand, resonance effects of lower latitude field lines can be clearly identified also far from the noon meridian when the station moves into the deep polar cap. Moreover, in the morning sector the resonance region would extend to lower latitudes than in the evening sector. The proposed profile of the resonant region can interpret also the results obtained at other cusp/auroral stations and appears consistent with that one inferred in the northern hemisphere at smaller latitudes. The resonance region progressively shifts toward lower latitude with increasing frequency; correspondingly, the four-sector pattern progressively disappears at TNB. Above f ∼ 20 mHz, the experimental observations might suggest an additional contribution from Sunward propagating waves, possibly via the magnetotail lobes.     

The variability and predictability of the IRI B0, B1 parameters over Grahamstown,South Africa

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) parameters B₀ and B₁ provide a representation of the thickness and shape, respectively, of the F2 layer of the bottomside ionosphere. These parameters can be derived from electron density profiles that are determined from vertical incidence ionograms. This paper aims to illustrate the variability of these parameters for a single mid latitude station and demonstrate the ability of the Neural Network (NN) modeling technique for developing a predictive model for these parameters. Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E) was chosen as the mid latitude station used in this study and the B₀ and B₁ parameters for an 11 year period were determined from electron density profiles recorded at that station with a University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Atmospheric Research (UMLCAR) Digisonde. A preliminary single station NN model was then developed using the Grahamstown data from 1996 to 2005 as a training database, and input parameters known to affect the behaviour of the F2 layer, such as day number, hour, solar and magnetic indices. An analysis of the diurnal, seasonal and solar variations of these parameters was undertaken for the years 2000, 2005 and 2006 using hourly monthly median values. Comparisons between the values derived from measured data and those predicted using the two available IRI-2001 methods (IRI tables and Gulyaeva, T. Progress in ionospheric informatics based on electron density profile analysis of ionograms. Adv. Space Res. 7(6), 39–48, 1987.) and the newly developed NN model are also shown in this paper. The preliminary NN model showed that it is feasible to use the NN technique to develop a prediction tool for the IRI thickness and shape parameters and first results from this model reveal that for the mid latitude location used in this study the NN model provides a more accurate prediction than the current IRI model options.     

Jovian periodicities (∼10 h, ∼40 min) on Ulysses’ Distant Jupiter Encounter observations around the Halloween CIR events

We analyzed data from four different instruments (HI-SCALE, URAP, SWOOPS, VHM/FGM) onboard Ulysses spacecraft (s/c) and we searched for possible evidence of Jovian emissions when the s/c approached Jupiter during the times of Halloween events (closest time approach/position to Jupiter: February 5, 2004/R = 1683 R_J,θ = ∼49°). In particular, we analyzed extensively the low energy ion measurements obtained by the HI-SCALE experiment in order to examine whether low energy ion/electron emissions show a symmetry, and whether they are observed at north high latitudes upstream from the jovian bow shock, as is known to occur in the region upstream from the south bow shock as well ( Marhavilas et al., 2001). We studied the period from October 2003 to March 2004, as Ulysses moved at distances 0.8–1.2 AU from the planet at north Jovicentric latitudes <75°, and we present here an example of characteristic Jovian periodicities in the measurements around a CIR observed by Ulysses on days ∼348–349/2003 (R = 1894 R_J,θ = 72°). We show that Ulysses observed low energy ion (∼0.055–4.7 MeV) and electron (>∼40 keV) flux and/or spectral modulation with the Jupiter rotation period (∼10 h) as well as variations with the same period in solar wind parameters, radio and magnetic field directional data. In addition, characteristic strong ∼40 min periodic variations were found superimposed on the ∼10 h ion spectral modulation. Both the ∼10 h and ∼40 min ion periodicities in HI-SCALE measurements were present in several cases during the whole period examined (October 2003 to March 2004) and were found to be more evident during some special conditions, for instance during enhanced fluxes around the start (forward shock) and the end (reverse shock) of CIRs. We infer that the Jovian magnetosphere was triggered by the impact of the CIRs, after the Halloween events, and it was (a) a principal source of forward and reverse shock-associated ion flux structures and (b) the cause of generation of ∼10 h quasi-periodic magnetic field and plasma modulation observed by Ulysses at those times.     

Temperature variability in the tropical mesosphere during the northern hemisphere winter

Temperature observations at 20–90 km height and 5°N–15°N during the period of December 1992–March 1993 from the WINDII and MLS experiments on the UARS satellite are analysed together with MF radar winds and UKMO assimilated fields of temperature and zonal and meridional winds. The correlation between the different datasets at the tropics and zonal mean wind data at mid latitudes is examined for period February–March 1993, when series of stratospheric warming events were observed at middle and high latitudes. Wavelet analysis is applied to investigate coupling between stationary and travelling planetary waves in the stratosphere and the upper mesosphere. Planetary waves m = 1 with periods of 4–7 days, 8–12 days and 13–18 days are found to dominate the period. Westward 7- and 16–18 day waves at the tropics appear enhanced by stationary planetary waves during sudden stratospheric warming events.     

Height and time variability of planetary wave activity

The height–season and year-to-year regularities of parameters of first and second spatial harmonics determine the structure of the stratosphere and mesosphere circulation and its variability. In the period 1992–2002 at heights 0–55 km, the amplitudes and phases of the first and second spatial harmonics in the field of temperature, geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind were calculated by the method of harmonic decomposition. Dispersion (standard or mean square deviation) of their day-to-day and year-to-year variations was calculated by their wavelength constants. Height and season patterns of variability have been estimated. The difference in height–longitude variability for wave numbers m = 1 and 2 has been discovered. At the same time, the intensity of wave disturbances for m = 1 is less than for m = 2 excluding the polar areas, where a significant variability appears at the heights 0–55 km. There is also a tendency for the intensity of year-to-year variations to decrease in comparison with day-to-day variations. In cold and warm periods the amplitude of perturbation waves with m = 2 both for day-to-day and year-to-year variations is greater than for waves with m = 1. Transient height areas in the interval of 20–30 km are more distinct for day-to-day variations of polar area.     

Long-term (50 years) measurements of cosmic ray fluxes in the atmosphere

Since the middle of 1957 till present time the group of researchers of P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences has carried out the regular balloon borne measurements of charged particle fluxes in the atmosphere. The measurements are performed at polar (northern and southern) and middle latitudes and cover the interval of heights from the ground level up to 30–35 km. Standard detectors of particles (gas-discharged counters) have been used. More than 80,000 measurements of cosmic ray fluxes in the atmosphere have been performed to the present time. In the data analysis the geomagnetic field and the Earth’s atmosphere are used as cosmic ray spectrometers.     

The asymmetrical features in electron density during extreme solar minimum

The variations of plasma density in topside ionosphere during 23rd/24th solar cycle minimum attract more attentions in recently years. In this analysis, we use the data of electron density (Ne) from DEMETER (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite at the altitude of 660–710 km to investigate the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry under geomagnetic coordinate system at LT (local time) 1030 and 2230 during 2005–2010, especially in solar minimum years of 2008–2009. The results reveal that ΔNe (December–June) is always positive over Southern Hemisphere and negative over northern part whatever at LT 1030 or 2230, only at 0–10°N the winter anomaly occurs with ΔNe (December–June) > 0, and its amplitude becomes smaller with the declining of solar flux from 2005 to 2009. The ΔNe between September and March is completely negative during 2005–2008, but in 2009, it turns to be positive at latitudes of 20°S–40°N at LT 1030 and 10°S–20°N at LT 2230. Furthermore, the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry index (AI) are calculated and studied respectively, which all depends on local time, latitude and longitude. The notable differences occur at higher latitudes in solar minimum year of 2009 with those in 2005–2008. The equinoctial AI at LT 2230 is quite consistent with the variational trend of solar flux with the lowest absolute AI occurring in 2009, the extreme solar minimum, but the solstitial AI exhibits abnormal enhancement during 2008 and 2009 with bigger AI than those in 2005–2007. Compared with the neutral compositions at 500 km altitude, it illustrates that [O/N₂] and [O] play some roles in daytime and nighttime asymmetry of Ne at topside ionosphere.     

Global characteristics of ionospheric electric fields and disturbances during the first hours of magnetic storms

The ionospheric plasma density can be significantly disturbed during magnetic storms. In the conventional scenario of ionospheric storms, the negative storm phases with plasma density decreases are caused by neutral composition changes, and the positive storm phases with plasma density increases are often related to atmospheric gravity waves. However, recent studies show that the global redistribution of the ionospheric plasma is dominated primarily by electric fields during the first hours of magnetic storms. In this paper, we present the measurements of ionospheric disturbances by the DMSP satellites and GPS network during the magnetic storm on 6 April 2000. The DMSP measurements include the F region ion velocity and density at the altitude of ∼840 km, and the GPS receiver network provides total electron content (TEC) measurements. The storm-time ionospheric disturbances show the following characteristics. The plasma density is deeply depleted in a latitudinal range of ∼20° over the equatorial region in the evening sector, and the depletions represent plasma bubbles. The ionospheric plasma density at middle latitudes (20°–40° magnetic latitudes) is significantly increased. The dayside TEC is increased simultaneously over a large latitudinal range. An enhanced TEC band forms in the afternoon sector, goes through the cusp region, and enters the polar cap. All the observed ionospheric disturbances occur within 1–5 h from the storm sudden commencement. The observations suggest that penetration electric fields play a major role in the rapid generation of equatorial plasma bubbles and the simultaneous increases of the dayside TEC within the first 2 h during the storm main phase. The ionospheric disturbances at later times may be caused by the combination of penetration electric fields and neutral wind dynamo process.     

Hard X-ray continuum from lunar surface: Results from High Energy X-ray spectrometer (HEX) onboard Chandrayaan-1

The High Energy X-ray spectrometer (HEX) on Chandrayaan-1 was designed to study the photon emission in the range of 30–270 keV from naturally occurring radioactive decay of ²³⁸U and ²³²Th series nuclides from the lunar surface. The primary objective of HEX was to study the transport of volatiles on the lunar surface using radon as a tracer and mapping the 46.5 keV line from ²¹⁰Pb, a decay product of ²²²Rn. HEX was tested for two days during the commissioning phase of Chandrayaan-1 and performance of all sub systems was found to be as expected. HEX started collecting science data during the first non-prime imaging season (February–April, 2009) of Chandrayaan-1. Certain anomalies persisted in this data set and the early curtailment of Chandrayaan-1 mission in August, 2009, did not allow any further operation of HEX. Despite these issues, HEX provided the first data set for 30–270 keV continuum emission, averaged over a significant portion of the lunar surface, including the polar region.     

Towards a GPS-based TEC prediction model for Southern Africa with feed forward networks

In this paper, first results from a national Global Positioning System (GPS) based total electron content (TEC) prediction model over South Africa are presented. Data for 10 GPS receiver stations distributed through out the country were used to train a feed forward neural network (NN) over an interval of at most five years. In the NN training, validating and testing processes, five factors which are well known to influence TEC variability namely diurnal variation, seasonal variation, magnetic activity, solar activity and the geographic position of the GPS receivers were included in the NN model. The database consisted of 1-min data and therefore the NN model developed can be used to forecast TEC values 1 min in advance. Results from the NN national model (NM) were compared with hourly TEC values generated by the earlier developed NN single station models (SSMs) at Sutherland (32.38°S, 20.81°E) and Springbok (29.67°S, 17.88°E), to predict TEC variations over the Cape Town (33.95°S, 18.47°E) and Upington (28.41°S, 21.26°E) stations, respectively, during equinoxes and solstices. This revealed that, on average, the NM led to an improvement in TEC prediction accuracy compared to the SSMs for the considered testing periods.     

Ionospheric reflection of the magnetic activity described by the index η

Differences in the external part of the vertical geomagnetic component point to the existence of local inhomogeneities in the magnetosphere or the ionosphere. Usually used magnetic indices are not sufficient to express the state of ionosphere, the common used global Kp index derived in the three-hour interval does not indicate much more rapidly changes appearing in ionosphere. Magnetic index η reflects ionospheric disturbances when other indices show very quiet conditions. Data of ionospheric characteristics (foE, foEs, h’E, h’F2) during 28-day long quiet day conditions (Kp = 0–2) in 2004 were analyzed. The correlations between strong local disturbances in ionosphere during very quiet days and high values of magnetic index η were found. The most sensitive to magnetic influence – ionospheric E layer data (foE characteristic) – reaches median deviations up to (+0.8 MHz and −0.8 MHz) during very low magnetic activity (Kp = 0–1). The high peaks (2–2.7) of the magnetic index η correlate in time with large local median deviations of foE. Such local deviations can suggest local inhomogeneities (vertical drifts) in the ionosphere. The correlation in space is not trivial. The strong peak of η is situated between the positive and negative deviations of foE. Additional observation is connected with correlation in time of the high η value with the negative median deviations of h’F2 (in some cases up to −90 km). The analysis was based on one-minute data recorded at each of 20 European Magnetic Observatories working in the INTERMAGNET network and from 19 ionosondes for 2004. Ionospheric data are sparse in time and in space in opposite to the magnetic data. The map of the magnetic indices can suggest the behavior of ionospheric characteristics in the areas where we have no data.     

High energy charged particle experiment – A payload proposal to KuaFu-B mission

High Energy Charged Particle Experiment (HECPE) is to measure the fluxes of MeV electrons and tens of MeV protons. The two satellites of KuaFu-B are in the same polar orbit with apogee 7.0R_E, perigee 1.8R_E. They can sweep large L values and pass through the inner and outer radiation belts. The high energy electrons and protons in the radiation belts are principal sources for failures of satellites and spacecrafts in the Earth orbits. The enhancements of the high energy electrons and protons, so-called energetic particle events, are important phenomena of the Space Weather. The energy ranges monitored by HECPE are 0.3–0.5 MeV, 0.5–1.0 MeV, 1.0–2.0 MeV, and E > 2.0 MeV for electrons, 5–10 MeV, 10–20 MeV, 20–40 MeV, and 40–80 MeV for protons.     

Some peculiarities of longitudinal distribution of proton fluxes at high latitudes

Dynamical features of proton fluxes at high and middle latitudes were studied based on data measured by Sun-synchronous low-altitude (800 km height) polar-orbiting three NOAA series satellites: POES 15, 16, and 17 during the geomagnetic storm on January, 21–22, 2005. Data from three satellites that passed the Northern hemisphere along different MLTs allow reconstructing the longitudinal distribution of the proton fluxes. Measurements of protons with energies of 30–80 keV and 80–240 keV (the ring current energy range) by 0- and 90-detectors were used to evaluate and compare the longitudinal asymmetry of proton flux distribution measured in the regions equatorward and poleward of the isotropic boundary. It was found that during all the phases of the geomagnetic storm distribution of the maximum flux of precipitating protons (0-detector data) is sufficiently asymmetric. The maximal flux position along MLT is moving from pre-midnight sector in quiet time to post-midnight one before and during SSC and moving back during recovery phase. The longitudinal distribution of precipitation maxima demonstrates the local increase in afternoon sector (approximately at 13:30 MLT) and decrease in the dusk one during SSC. These features are evident consequence of the magnetosphere compression. To identify the origin of the particles, the locations of maximum fluxes have been projected to the magnetosphere. It was determined that during geomagnetic storm main and recovery phases maximum fluxes were measured at latitudes poleward of the isotropic boundary. To evaluate the trapped particle flux asymmetry, the particle fluences (90-detector data) were calculated along the satellite orbit from L = 2 to the isotropic boundary. The total fluences of trapped particles calculated along the satellite orbit show regular asymmetry between dusk and dawn during main and recovery phases. The maximal intensity of proton fluxes of both investigated populations located poleward and equatorward of the isotropic boundary is achieved during SSC. The total flux measured during crossing the anisotropic region can be considered as a proxy for ring current injection rate.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

Progress towards a new global foF2 model for the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)

A new neural network (NN) based global empirical model for the foF2 parameter, which represents the peak electron density has been developed using extended temporal and spatial geophysical relevant inputs. The first results from this new model were presented at the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2006 workshop in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and showed that this new model would be a suitable replacement for the URSI and CCIR maps currently used within the IRI model for the purpose of F2 peak electron density predictions. Measured ground based ionosonde data, from 85 global stations, spanning the period 1995–2005 and, for a few stations from 1976 to 1986, obtained from various resources of the World Data Centre (WDC) archives (Space Physics Interactive Data Resource SPIDR, the Digital Ionogram Database, DIDBase, and IPS Radio and Space Services) have been used for training a NN.