Use of TEC global maps and the IRI model to study ionospheric response to geomagnetic disturbances

Period of October–November 2003 provides a wide range of geomagnetic conditions. This paper looks at three intervals: a moderate magnetic disturbance (13–16.10.2003) and two intense magnetic storms (29–31.10 and 20–21.11). One purpose of this paper is to define the behavior of the two parameters of the ionosphere, foF2 (or NmF2) and TEC, in this period. Data of foF2 of European ionosondes and TEC values of global maps for the corresponding coordinates are used. The emphasis is on the study of the synchrony of these parameters, which determine the behavior of the proportionality factor τ(obs) between the TEC and NmF2. The second objective is to compare two methods of determining foF2 during the disturbances, using: (i) the STORM-factor of the IRI model, (ii) the median equivalent slab thickness τ(med), together with the global TEC maps. It is shown that synchrony of variations of TEC and NmF2 does not always exist, which leads to unpredictable behavior of τ(obs). Acceptable option of the calculation of foF2 from TEC is to use τ(med), ensuring compliance with the experimental data better than 0.5 MHz in the case of synchrony, and 1.5 MHz when it does not exist. The relationship between τ(obs) and the plasmaspheric part of the TEC of the IRI-Plas model is considered. A comprehensive investigation of this relationship in cases where no synchrony may contribute to the development of model of τ(obs) during the disturbances.     

TEC derived from some GPS stations in Nigeria and comparison with the IRI and NeQuick models

Total electron content (TEC) measured simultaneously using Global Positioning System (GPS) ionospheric monitors installed at some locations in Nigeria during the year 2011 (Rz = 55.7) was used to study the diurnal, seasonal, and annual TEC variations. The TEC exhibits daytime maximum, seasonal variation and semiannual variations. Measured TEC were compared with those predicted by the improved versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and NeQuick models. The models followed the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed values of TEC. However, IRI model produced better estimates of TEC than NeQuick at all locations.     

Comparing the improved Di Giovanni/Radicella model with sounding-based electron density profiles and with the IRI model

The Di Giovanni/Radicella model (DGR) /1/ determines a bottom side electron densty profile alone from the set of routinely scaled ionogram parameters foE, foF1, foF2 and M(3000)F2 and the total electron content; the smoothed sunspot number R12 appears in the calculation. Present designations are DGR2/2/ and DRR3 /3/ [see Appendix]; they are valid in the northern hemisphere. DGR is compared with electron density profiles derived from ionograms obtained at Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E), and with the (URSI-based) IRI90 at different conditiones. Experimental total electron content (TEC) data are compared to both models. At the considered station, the profiles obtained by both models are reasonably in agreement amongst themselves and with the experimental data.

The TEC derived from the DGR3 model is in good agreement with experimental TEC, whereas, at high solar activity, IRI90 gives too high TEC values, especially during daytime.     

Evaluation of the improvement of IRI-2016 over IRI-2012 at the India low-latitude region during the ascending phase of cycle 24

This paper investigated the performance of the latest International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI-2016) over that of IRI-2012 in predicting total electron content (TEC) at three different stations in the Indian region. The data used were Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 over three low-latitude stations in India namely; Bangalore (13.02°N Geographic latitude, 77.57°E Geographic longitude), Hyderabad (17.25°N Geographic latitude, 78.30°E Geographic longitude) and Surat (21.16°N Geographic latitude, 72.78°E Geographic longitude). Monthly, the seasonal and annual variability of GPS-TEC have been compared with those derived from International Reference Ionosphere IRI-2016 and IRI-2012 with two different options of topside electron density: NeQuick and IRI01-corr. It is observed that both versions of IRI (i.e., IRI-2012 and IRI-2016) predict the GPS-TEC with some deviations, the latest version of IRI (IRI-2016) predicted the TEC similar to those predicted by IRI-2012 for all the seasons at all stations except for morning hours (0500 LT to 1000?LT). This shows that the effect of the updated version is seen only during morning hours and also that there is no change in TEC values by IRI-2016 from those predicted by IRI-2012 for the rest of the time of the day in the Indian low latitude region. The semiannual variations in the daytime maximum values of TEC are clearly observed from both GPS and model-derived TEC values with two peaks around March-April and September-October months of each year. Further, the Correlation of TEC derived by IRI-2016 and IRI-2012 with EUV and F10.7 shows similar results. This shows that the solar input to the IRI-2016 is similar to IRI 2012. There is no significant difference observed in TEC, bottom-side thickness (B0) and shape (B1) parameter predictions by both the versions of the IRI model. However, a clear improvement is visible in hmF2 and NmF2 predictions by IRI-2016 to that by IRI-2012. The SHU-2015 option of the IRI-2016 gives a better prediction of NmF2 for all the months at low latitude station Ahmedabad compare to AMTB 2013.     

Validation of the Neustrelitz Global Model according to the low latitude ionosphere

Empirical modeling including empirical model for the total electron content (TEC) is important for the study of the ionosphere and practical applications. In this paper goodness of new Neustrelitz Global Model (then NGM) at low latitudes is studied. The NGM model includes such parameters as the maximal electron density (NmF2) and altitude of the maximum (hmF2). As of today, besides NGM there are several empirical models for NmF2 and hmF2. Therefore, a comparison of these parameters of the NGM model, not only with the experimental data, but also with two versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (the IRI model): IRI2001 and IRI-Plas would be instructive. Because the NGM model incorporates special factor describing the equatorial anomaly, the comparison in lower latitude areas is particularly interesting. As one can see from the presented example of the data from low latitude stations located in the northern and southern hemispheres near the Greenwich meridian, the NGM model may have certain advantages over the IRI model versions. In particular, NGM TEC is preferable regardless of solar activity level while NGM NmF2 is only preferable under high solar activity conditions. Next, NGM equivalent slab thickness of the ionosphere: τ(NGM) = TEC(NGM)/NmF2(NGM) has been calculated and tested to answer the question whether τ(NGM) can be used as a proxy of the slab thickness of the ionosphere for an empirical modeling. The answer is positive for the near equatorial stations and periods of high solar activity, and under such conditions predicted τ(NGM) can be used for deriving NmF2 from the experimental values of TEC(CODE) in real time.     

GPS derived TEC and foF2 variability at an equatorial station and the performance of IRI-model

The ionosphere induces a time delay in transionospheric radio signals such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal. The Total Electron Content (TEC) is a key parameter in the mitigation of ionospheric effects on transionospheric signals. The delay in GPS signal induced by the ionosphere is proportional to TEC along the path from the GPS satellite to a receiver. The diurnal monthly and seasonal variations of ionospheric electron content were studied during the year 2010, a year of extreme solar minimum (F10.7 = 81 solar flux unit), with data from the GPS receiver and the Digisonde Portable Sounder (DPS) collocated at Ilorin (Geog. Lat. 8.50°N, Long. 4.50°E, dip −7.9°). The diurnal monthly variation shows steady increases in TEC and F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) from pre-dawn minimum to afternoon maximum and then decreases after sunset. TEC show significant seasonal variation during the daytime between 0900 and 1900 UT (LT = UT + 1 h) with a maximum during the March equinox (about 35 TECU) and minimum during the June solstice (about 24 TECU). The GPS-TEC and foF2 values reveal a weak seasonal anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry during the daytime. The variations observed find their explanations in the amount of solar radiation and neutral gas composition. The measured TEC and foF2 values were compared with last two versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007 and IRI-2012) model predictions using the NeQuick and CCIR (International Radio Consultative Committee) options respectively in the model. In general, the two models give foF2 close to the experimental values, whereas significant discrepancies are found in the predictions of TEC from the models especially during the daytime. The error in height dependent thickness parameter, daytime underestimation of equatorial drift and contributions of electrons from altitudes above 2000 km have been suggested as the possible causes.     

Comparison of GPS-TEC measurements with NeQuick2 and IRI model predictions in the low latitude East African region during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015)

This paper examines the performances of NeQuick2, the latest available IRI-2016, IRI-2012 and IRI-2007 models in describing the monthly and seasonal mean total electron content (TEC) over the East African region. This is to gain insight into the success of the various model types and versions at characterizing the ionosphere within the equatorial ionization anomaly. TEC derived from five Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers installed at Addis Ababa (ADD, 5.33°N, 111.99°E Geog.), Asab (ASAB, 8.67°N, 116.44°E Geog.), Ambo (ABOO, 5.43°N, 111.05°E Geog.), Nairobi (RCMN, ?4.48°N, 108.46°E Geog.) and Nazret (NAZR, 4.78°N, 112.43°E Geog.), are compared with the corresponding values computed using those models during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015). We found that different models describe the equatorial and anomaly region ionosphere best depending on solar cycle, season and geomagnetic activity levels. Our results show that IRI-2016 is the best model (compared to others in terms of discrepancy range) in estimating the monthly mean GPS-TEC at NAZR, ADD and RCMN stations except at ADD during 2008 and 2012. It is also found that IRI-2012 is the best model in estimating the monthly mean TEC at ABOO station in 2014. IRI show better agreement with observations during June solstice for all the years studied at ADD except in 2012 where NeQuick2 better performs. At NAZR, NeQuick2 better performs in estimating seasonal mean GPS-TEC during 2011, while IRI models are best during 2008–2009. Both NeQuick2 and IRI models underestimate measured TEC for all the seasons at ADD in 2010 but overestimate at NAZR in 2009 and RCMN in 2008. The periodic variations of experimental and modeled TEC have been compared with solar and geomagnetic indices at ABOO and ASAB in 2014 and results indicate that the F10.7 and sunspot number as indices of solar activity seriously affects the TEC variations with periods of 16–32?days followed by the geomagnetic activity on shorter timescales (roughly periods of less than 16?days). In this case, NeQuick2 derived TEC shows better agreement with a long term period variations of GPS-TEC, while IRI-2016 and IRI-2007 show better agreement with observations during short term periodic variations. This indicates that the dependence of NeQuick2 derived TEC on F10.7 is seasonal. Hence, we suggest that representation of geomagnetic activity indices is required for better performance over the low latitude region.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Evaluation of the IRI model for the European region

The aim of this paper is to investigate various aspects of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) performance in European area and to evaluate its accuracy and efficiency for: long term prediction of the critical frequencies foF2 and the maximum usable frequencies (MUF); using storm-time correction option (ST); the total electron content (TEC) and the maximum observable frequency (MOF) updating. Data of foF2, TEC, MOF are related to 2005. It is obtained that median values of foF2 can be predicted with the mean error σ(med)∼ 0.49 MHz. For median values of MUF absolute σ was 1.39 MHz and relative σ_r was 8.8%. For instanteneous values estimates are increased to 1.58σ(med) MHz for foF2 and could reach 3.84 MHz for MUF. Using correction ST-option and TEC values provided ∼30% improvement but TEC seems to be more preferable. However, from considered parameters of the IRI updating (ST-factor, TEC, MOF) the best results were demonstrated by MOF. Using the IRI2007 to calculate TEC gives 20–50% improvement of TEC correspondence to experimental values but this improvement is not enough to treat TEC without the IRI model adaptation.     

Solar flux effects on equatorial ionization anomaly and total electron content over Brazil: Observational results versus IRI representations

The F layer critical frequency (foF2) as measured by Digisondes in the equatorial and low latitude locations in Brazil is analyzed to investigate the seasonal and solar flux controls of the intensity of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the equinoctial month of March. The analysis also included the total electron content (TEC) as measured by a GPS receiver operated at the EIA crest location. The foF2 data set covered a period of large solar flux variation from 1996 to 2003, while the GPS TEC data was for a period in 2002–2003 when the solar flux parameter F10.7 underwent large variations, permitting in both cases an examination of the solar flux effects on these parameters. The seasonal variation pattern in TEC shows a maximum in equinoctial months and a minimum in June solstice, with similar variations for foF2. The solar flux dependence of the TEC is a maximum during equinoxes, especially for post-sunset TEC values at times when the latitudinal distribution is controlled by the equatorial evening plasma fountain processes. Significant variations with local time are found in the degree of solar flux dependence for both the TEC and EIA. The EIA intensity shows large dependence on F10.7 during post-sunset to midnight hours. These results are discussed in comparison with their corresponding IRI representations.     

Improvement of the real time total electron content based on the International Reference Ionosphere model

One of the methods to adapt the International Reference Ionosphere model to real time conditions is to use instantaneous values of the critical frequency of the ionosphere foF2. It is shown that there can be large discrepancies between model and experimental values of the total electron content TEC after this adaptation. Improvement can be provided by the use of an empirical model of the ionospheric slab thickness τ. This conclusion is based on analysis of contributions of various correction factors connected with foF2 and τ into discrepancies between model and experimental values of TEC.     

Ionospheric variation at Thailand equatorial latitude station: Comparison between observations and IRI-2001 model predictions

In this paper, the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) and peak height (hmF2) measured by the FM/CW ionosonde at Thailand equatorial latitude station, namely Chumphon (10.72°N, 99.37°E, dip 3.22) are presented. The measurement data during low solar activity from January 2004 to December 2006 are analyzed based on the diurnal, seasonal variation. The results are then compared with IRI-2001 model predictions. Our study shows that: (1) In general, both the URSI and CCIR options of the IRI model give foF2 close to the measured ones, but the CCIR option produces a smaller range of deviation than the URSI option. The agreement during daytime is generally better than during nighttime. Overestimation mostly occurs in 2004 and 2006, while underestimation is during pre-sunrise hours in June solstice in 2005. The peak foF2 around sunset is higher during March equinox and September equinox than the other seasons, with longer duration of maximum levels in March equinox than September equinox. Large coefficients of variability foF2 occur during pre-sunrise hours. Meanwhile, the best agreement between the observed foF2 and the IRI model is obtained in June solstice. (2) In general, The IRI (CCIR) model predicts the observed hmF2 well during daytime in June solstice from 2004–2006, but it overestimates during March equinox, September equinox and December solstice. For nighttime, the model overestimates hmF2 values for all seasons especially during March equinox and September equinox. However, the model underestimates hmF2 values during September equinox and for some cases during June solstice and December solstice at pre-sunrise. The agreement between the IRI model and the hmF2(M3000_OBS) is worst around noontime, post-sunset and pre-sunrise hours. All comparative studies give feedback for new improvements of CCIR and URSI IRI models.     

Comparison of ionosphere characteristic parameters obtained by ionosonde with IRI-2007 model over Southeast Asia

In this work, the foF2 and hmF2 parameters at the conjugate points near the magnetic equator of Southeast Asia are studied and compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. Three ionosondes are installed nearly along the magnetic meridian of 100°E; one at the magnetic equator, namely Chumphon (10.72°N, 99.37°E, dip angle 3.0°N), and the other two at the magnetic conjugate points, namely Chiang Mai (18.76°N, 98.93°E, dip angle 12.7°N) and Kototabang (0.2°S, 100.30°E, dip angle 10.1°S). The monthly hourly medians of the foF2 and hmF2 parameters are calculated and compared with the predictions obtained from the IRI-2007 model from January 2004 to February 2007. Our results show that: the variations of foF2 and hmF2 predicted by the IRI-2007 model generally show the similar feature to the observed data. Both parameters generally show better agreement with the IRI predictions during daytime than during nighttime. For foF2, most of the results show that the IRI model overestimates the observed foF2 at the magnetic equator (Chumphon), underestimates at the northern crest (Chiang Mai) and is close to the measured ones at the southern crest of the EIA (Kototabang). For hmF2, the predicted hmF2 values are close to the hmF2(M3000F2_OBS) during daytime. During nighttime, the IRI model gives the underestimation at the magnetic equator and the overestimation at both EIA crests. The results are important for the future improvements of the IRI model for foF2 and hmF2 over Southeast Asia region.     

Diurnal and seasonal variation of F2-layer ionospheric parameters at equatorial ionization anomaly crest region and their comparison with IRI-2001

Diurnal and seasonal variations of critical frequency of ionospheric F2-region ‘foF2’ and the height of peak density ‘hmF2’ are studied using modern digital ionosonde observations of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region, Bhopal (23.2°N, 77.6°E, dip 18.5°N), during solar minimum period 2007. Median values of these parameters are obtained at each hour using manually scaled data during different seasons and compared with the International Reference Ionosphere-2001 model predictions. The observations suggest that on seasonal basis, the highest values of foF2 are observed during equinox months, whereas highest values of hmF2 are obtained in summer and lowest values of both foF2 and hmF2 are observed during winter. The observed median and IRI predicted values of foF2 and hmF2 are analyzed with upper and lower bound of inter-quartile range (IQR) and it is find out that the observed median values are well inside the inter-quartile range during the period of 2007. Comparison of the recorded foF2 and hmF2 values with the IRI-2001 output reveals that IRI predicted values exhibit better agreement with hmF2 as compared to foF2. In general, the IRI model predictions show some agreement with the observations during the year 2007. Therefore it is still necessary to implement improvements in order to obtain better predictions for EIA regions.     

Equatorial anomaly according to the Interkosmos-19 data and IRI model: A comparison

The comparison of the IRI model with the foF2 distribution in the equatorial anomaly region obtained by topside sounding onboard the Interkosmos-19 satellite has been carried out. The global distribution of foF2 in terms of LT-maps was constructed by averaging Intercosmos-19 data for summer, winter, and equinox. These maps, in fact, represent an empirical model of the equatorial anomaly for high solar activity F10.7 ~ 200. The comparison is carried out for the latitudinal foF2 profiles in the characteristic longitudinal sectors of 30, 90, 210, 270, and 330°, as well as for the longitudinal variations in foF2 over the equator. The largest difference between the models (up to 60%) for any season was found in the Pacific longitudinal sector of 210°, where there are a few ground-based sounding stations. Considerable discrepancies, however, are sometimes observed in the longitudinal sectors, where there are many ground-based stations, for example, in the European or Indian sector. The discrepancies reach their maximum at 00 LT, since a decay of the equatorial anomaly begins before midnight in the IRI model and after midnight according to the Interkosmos-19 data. The discrepancies are also large in the morning at 06 LT, since in the IRI model, the foF2 growth begins long before sunrise. In the longitudinal variations in foF2 over the equator at noon, according to the satellite data, four harmonics are distinguished in the June solstice and at the equinox, and three harmonics in the December solstice, while in the IRI model only two and one harmonics respectively are revealed. In diurnal variations in foF2 and, accordingly, in the equatorial anomaly intensity, the IRI model does not adequately reproduce even the main, evening extremum.     

Ionospheric behavior of the F2 peak parameters foF2 and hmF2 at Hainan and comparisons with IRI model predictions

Monthly median values of foF2, hmF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters, with hourly time interval resolution for the diurnal variation, obtained with DPS-4 digisonde observations at Hainan (19.4°N, 109.0°E) are used to study the low latitude ionospheric variation behavior. The observational results are compared with the International Reference Ionospheric Model (IRI) predictions. The time period coverage of the data used for the present study is from March 2002 to February 2005. Our present study showed that: (1) In general, IRI predictions using CCIR and URSI coefficients follow well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the experimental values of foF2. However, CCIR foF2 and URSI foF2 IRI predictions systematically underestimate the observed results during most time period of the day, with the percentage difference ΔfoF2 (%) values changing between about −5% and −25%, whereas for a few hours around pre-sunrise, the IRI predictions generally overestimate the observational ones with ΔfoF2 (%) sometimes reaching as large as ∼30%. The agreement between the IRI results and the observational ones is better for the year 2002 than for the other years. The best agreement between the IRI results and the observational ones is obtained in summer when using URSI coefficients, with the seasonal average values of ΔfoF2 (%) being within the limits of ±10%. (2) In general, the IRI predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(3000)F2 option shows a poor agreement with the observational results. However, when using the measured M(3000)F2 as input, the diurnal variation pattern of hmF2 given by IRI2001 has a much better agreement with the observational one with the detailed fine structures including the pre-sunrise and post-sunset peaks reproduced reasonably well. The agreement between the IRI predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(30,000)F2 option and the observational ones is worst for the afternoon to post-midnight hours for the high solar activity year 2002. During daytime hours the agreement between the hmF2 values obtained with CCIR M(30,000)F2 option and the observational ones is best for summer season. The discrepancy between the observational hmF2 and that obtained with CCIR M(30,000)F2 option stem from the CCIR M(3000)F2 model, which does not produce the small scale structures observed in the measured M(3000)F2.     

Comparison of ionospheric F2 peak parameters foF2 and hmF2 with IRI2001 at Hainan

Monthly median values of foF2, hmF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters, with quarter-hourly time interval resolution for the diurnal variation, obtained with DPS4 digisonde at Hainan (19.5°N, 109.1°E; Geomagnetic coordinates: 178.95°E, 8.1°N) are used to investigate the low-latitude ionospheric variations and comparisons with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predictions. The data used for the present study covers the period from February 2002 to April 2007, which is characterized by a wide range of solar activity, ranging from high solar activity (2002) to low solar activity (2007). The results show that (1) Generally, IRI predictions follow well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the experimental values of foF2, especially in the summer of 2002. However, there are systematic deviation between experimental values and IRI predictions with either CCIR or URSI coefficients. Generally IRI model greatly underestimate the values of foF2 from about noon to sunrise of next day, especially in the afternoon, and slightly overestimate them from sunrise to about noon. It seems that there are bigger deviations between IRI Model predictions and the experimental observations for the moderate solar activity. (2) Generally the IRI-predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(3000)F2 option shows a poor agreement with the experimental results, but there is a relatively good agreement in summer at low solar activity. The deviation between the IRI-predicted hmF2 using CCIR M(3000)F2 and observed hmF2 is bigger from noon to sunset and around sunrise especially at high solar activity. The occurrence time of hmF2 peak (about 1200 LT) of the IRI model predictions is earlier than that of observations (around 1500 LT). The agreement between the IRI hmF2 obtained with the measured M(3000)F2 and the observed hmF2 is very good except that IRI overestimates slightly hmF2 in the daytime in summer at high solar activity and underestimates it in the nighttime with lower values near sunrise at low solar activity.     

Monthly mean foF2 model for an African low-latitude station and comparison with IRI

We have employed the hourly values of the ionospheric F-region critical frequency (foF2) obtained from Ouagadougou ionosonde, Burkina Faso (geographic coordinates 12° N, 1.8° W) during the interval of 1985–1995 (solar cycle 22) and solar radio flux of 10 cm wavelength (F10.7) to develop a local model (LM) for the African low-latitude station. The model was developed from regression analysis method, using the two-segmented regression analysis. We validated LM with foF2 data from Korhogo observatory, Cote d’Ivorie (geographical coordinates 9.3° N, 5.4° W). LM as well as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) agrees well with observations. LM gave some improvement on the IRI-predicted foF2 values at the sunrise (06 LT) at all solar flux levels and in all seasons except June solstice. The performance of the models at the representing the salient features of the equatorial foF2 was presented. Considering daytime and nighttime performances, LM and IRI are comparable in low solar activity (LSA), LM performed better than IRI in moderate solar activity (MSA), while IRI performed better than LM in high solar activity (HSA). CCIR has a root mean square error (r.m.s.e), which is only 0.10 MHz lower than that of LM while LM has r.m.s.e, which is about 0.05 MHz lower than that of URSI. In general, our result shows that performance of IRI, especially the CCIR option of the IRI, is quite comparable with the LM. The improved performance of IRI is a reflection of the numerous contributions of ionospheric physicists in the African region, larger volume of data for the IRI and the diversity of data sources, as well as the successes of the IRI task force activities.     

TEC variability near northern EIA crest and comparison with IRI model

Monthly median values of hourly total electron content (TEC) is obtained with GPS at a station near northern anomaly crest, Rajkot (geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E; geomag. 14.21°N, 144.9°E) to study the variability of low latitude ionospheric behavior during low solar activity period (April 2005 to March 2006). The TEC exhibit characteristic features like day-to-day variability, semiannual anomaly and noon bite out. The observed TEC is compared with latest International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) – 2007 model using options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI-2001 by using both URSI and CCIR coefficients. A good agreement of observed and predicted TEC is found during the daytime with underestimation at other times. The predicted TEC by NeQuick and IRI01-corr is closer to the observed TEC during the daytime whereas during nighttime and morning hours, IRI-2001 shows lesser discrepancy in all seasons by both URSI and CCIR coefficients.     

Assessment of improvement of the IRI model over Ethiopia for the modeling of the variability of TEC during the period 2013–2016

This paper discusses the monthly and seasonal variation of the total electron content (TEC) and the improvement of performance of the IRI model in estimating TEC over Ethiopia during the solar maximum (2013–2016) phase employing as reference the GPS derived TEC data inferred from four GPS receivers installed in different regions of Ethiopia; Assosa (geog 10.05°N, 34.55°E, Geom. 7.01°N), Ambo (8.97°N, 37.86°E, Geom. 5.42°N), Nazret (8.57°N, 39.29°E, Geom. 4.81°N) and Arba Minch (6.06°N, 37.56°E, Geom. 2.62°N). The results reveal that, in the years 2013–2016, the highest peak GPS-derived diurnal VTEC is observed in the March equinox in 2015 over Arba Minch station. Moreover, both the arithmetic mean GPS-derived and modelled VTEC values, generally, show maximum and minimum values in the equinoctial and June solstice months, respectively in 2014–2015. However, in 2013, the minimum and maximum arithmetic mean GPS-derived values are observed in the March equinox and December solstice, respectively. The results also show that, even though overestimation of the modelled VTEC has been observed on most of the hours, all versions of the model are generally good to estimate both the monthly and seasonal diurnal hourly VTEC values, especially in the early morning hours (00:00–03:00?UT or 03:00–06:00?LT). However, it has also been shown that the IRI 2007 and IRI 2012 versions generally perform best in matching the diurnal GPS derived TEC values as compared to that of the IRI 2016 version. In addition, the IRI 2012 version with IRI2001 option for the topside electron density shows the highest overestimation of the VTEC as compared to the other options. None of the versions of the IRI model are proved to be able to capture the effects of geomagnetic storms.