Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical total ozone under alternative QBO scenarios of equatorial stratospheric wind

Equatorial total column ozone variations with quasi-biennial periodicity are described by paying attention to their coupling with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind in equatorial stratosphere. Analysis is made for the 35-year time interval from 1978 to 2013 using the zonal mean total ozone (TOZ) data in latitude band from 5° S to 5° N derived from satellite measurements by means of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The study was performed using strong seasonal regularities of the wind QBO and the discrete variation of the QBO-period revealed earlier. The forecast of the wind QBO evolution made in Gabis (2012) is fully justified. The comparison between predicted and actually observed changes of the height wind structure shows the prominent accordance, which confirms the forecast validity. It is shown that variations of deseasonalized TOZ are in strong coupling with changes of equatorial wind QBO that coincides with the numerous previous researches. However our results contradict the assumption about quite complicated ozone response in the equatorial region due to continuously varying with time relationship between annual and quasi-biennial cycles and irregularly variable wind QBO-period. The total ozone changes actually observed clearly corresponds to the mean ozone variations calculated for different QBO scenarios and aligned according to the sequence of QBO scenarios already occurred in fact. This close association indicates the possibility of forecasting the equatorial total ozone QBO based on the predicted wind QBO.     

反向电集流出现率与大气准两年振荡

本文分析印度Trivandrum地磁台的约两个太阳黑子周期的地磁场水平分量小时值。在部分地消除了太阳黑子周期及一年周期变化后,发现了反向电集流出现率的QBO调制现象:QBO东风相反向电集流出现率增加;QBO西风相反向电集流出现率减小。据此讨论了反向电集流的形成机制,认为大气行星波在其上传过程中与太阳半日波或太阴半日波的相互作用,有可能导致两种半日波的放大和相位移动,并最终导致反向电集流的出现。      

Quasi-biennial oscillation in GPS VTEC measurements

The quasi-biennial oscillation, QBO, a well known periodicity in the equatorial stratospheric zonal winds, is also found in ionospheric parameters and in solar and geomagnetic activity indices. Many authors speculated about the link between the QBO in solar and geomagnetic activity and the QBO in atmospheric parameters. In this work we analyze the presence of the QBO in the ionosphere using the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) values obtained from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements during the period 1999–2012. In particular, we used IONEX files, i.e. the International GNSS Service (IGS) ionospheric products. IONEX provide VTEC values around the world at 2-h intervals. From these data we compute global and zonal averages of VTEC at different local times at mid and equatorial geomagnetic latitudes. VTEC and Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) solar flux time series are analyzed using a wavelet multi resolution analysis. In all cases the QBO is detected among other expected periodicities.     

中国上空平流层准零风层的特征分析

利用ECMWF提供的ERA-40再分析风场资料首次分析了中国上空平流层准零风层的特点及其随季节和地理位置的变化特征.结果表明,准零风层一般处于18～25 km高度范围内,零风线所在的高度随时间和地理位置的不同稍有变化.根据准零风层随纬度的变化特征,中国上空可以分成三个区域:低纬地区(5°N～20°N)、中低纬过渡区域(20°N～32.5°N)和中高纬地区(32.5°N～55°N).低纬地区一般在冬季和初春有准零风层结构存在;中高纬地区一般在春末和夏季存在准零风层结构;而中低纬过渡区域是否有准零风层结构存在还与准两年震荡(QBO)有关,在QBO东风相位时,过渡区域呈现的特性偏向于中纬特性,在QBO西风相位时,过渡区域呈现的特性偏向于低纬特性.准零风层随经度变化非常小,零风线所在高度随经度的变化幅度一般不超过2 km,过渡区域的变化幅度相对大些.      

On mid-term periodicities of high-latitude solar activity

The mid-term periodicities of polar faculae are studied separately for the total disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun for a time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. Apart from the 11-year Schwabe cycle which is the fundamental period and is found in all of the three time series, the following prominent results are found: (1) the rotational periodicity of solar activity at high latitudes is approximately from 28 to 32 days; (2) a large number of quasi-periods appearing in low-latitude solar activity (annual variation, 1.3–1.7 years, quasi-biennial oscillation, and 4–5 years) also exist in polar faculae; (3) the periodicities on both hemispheres are not identical.     

A study of the solar cycle signal on total ozone over low-latitude Brazilian observation stations

Observations of total ozone at low latitudes in Brazil have been made using Dobson spectrophotometers since 1974 for Cachoeira Paulista (23.1° S, 45° W) and since 1978 for Natal (5.8° S, 35.2° W). Annual averages, 12 months and 36 months running averages have been analyzed. Spectral analyses of the data revealed that the most important periods found (confidence level> 90%) were: for Natal, 2.5 years (93.1%, quasi-biennial oscillation-QBO) and 10 years (98,2%, possibly the solar cycle signal); for Cachoeira Paulista, 2.4 years (96.8%, QBO) and 8 years (99.6%). The difference in total ozone between maximum and minimum solar cycles were estimated, using yearly averages of total ozone. For solar cycle 21, 1.16% and 1.26% for Natal and Cachoeira Paulista were found; for solar cycle 22, a larger difference of 3.8% for Natal and 4.1% for Cachoeira Paulista were found. The corresponding variation in UV-B at 300 nm, using Beer's law, is 8–10% for C. Paulista and 4–5% for Natal, with maxima occurring during the minimum of the solar cycle.     

Response of the mesopause temperatures to solar activity over Yakutia in 1999–2013

OH(6-2) rotational temperature trends and solar cycle effects are studied. Observations were carried out at the Maimaga station (63.04°N, 129.51°E) for the period August 1999 to March 2013. Measurements were conducted with an infrared spectrograph. Temperatures were determined from intensity ratios in the P branch of the OH band. The monthly average residuals of temperature after the subtraction of the mean seasonal variation were used for a search for the solar component of temperature response. The dependence of temperatures on solar activity has been investigated using the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux as a proxy. A linear regression fitting on residual temperatures yields a solar cycle coefficient of 4.24 ± 1.39 K/100 solar flux units (SFU). The cross-correlation analyses showed that changes of the residual temperature follow changes of solar activity with a quasi-two year delay (25 months). The temperature response at the delay of 25 months reaches 7 K/100 SFU. The possible reason of the observed delay can be an influence of quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the atmosphere on the relation of temperature and solar activity. The value of the temperature trend after the subtraction of seasonal and solar components is not statistically significant.     

Long term solar induced variations in total ozone, stratospheric temperatures and the tropopause

The variations of total ozone, stratospheric temperature and tropopause temperature are presented for the past 3 solar cycles for the summer months of the northern hemisphere. Ground-based, 30-year total column ozone series, filtered from its seasonal, QBO, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and trend components are found to be correlated to the 11-year solar cycle. Model calculations with a 2D chemical transport model are consistent with the observations. Mean stratospheric temperature variations, between levels 100 and 10 hPa, show also the same variation, correlated with the observed 11-year solar cycle, and the tropopause temperature increases in the same manner, in response to a warmer stratosphere during solar maxima.     

Estimating sea level rise around Australia using a new approach to account for low frequency climate signals

Regional sea level studies help to identify the vulnerable areas to the sea level rise. This study investigates the impact of climate modes on sea level variations and trends around Australia using altimetry data, climate indices, and sea level records from tide gauge stations. Here, we show that the sea level variations are negatively correlated with climate indices to the north and west of Australia. The spectral analyses of the climate indices and tide gauge data suggest that a low frequency signal with a period of 11 years emerges during the mid 1980s. Since the 25-year length of the satellite altimetry record is yet too short to detect low frequency signals, their effect on the estimation of regional sea level trend is unknown. Therefore, we estimate the sea level trend with consideration of this signal and using a two-step method. All signals with periods shorter than 7.5 years are first removed from sea level time series and then the trend is estimated using the parametric model that includes the 11-year signal. The skill of the parametric model in explaining the variations in sea level anomaly validates the presence of the 11-year signal detected in the spectrograms of the tide gauge data and climate indices. The average sea level trend for the study area is estimated as 3.85 ± 0.15 mm/year.     

Delineation of possible influence of solar variability and galactic cosmic rays on terrestrial climate parameters

The present paper has investigated the associations of solar activity (SA), represented by total solar irradiance (TSI), galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and terrestrial climate parameters in particular the global cloudiness and global surface temperature. To that end, we have analysed thirty five years (1983–2018) data of these parameters and have applied the Granger-causality test in order to assess whether there is any potential predictability power of one indicator to the other. The correlations among the involved parameters are tested using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model and variance decomposition method. As a result of the above analysis, we have found that the TSI is an important factor and has contributed about 8.77 ± 0.42% in the cosmic ray intensity variations. In case of cloud cover variations, the other three parameters (TSI, cosmic ray and global surface temperature) have played a significant role. Further, the TSI changes have contributed 1.68 ± 0.03% fluctuations in the variance of the cloud cover while the cosmic ray intensity and global surface temperature have contributed about 4.89 ± 0.08% and 10.87 ± 1.41% respectively. In case of the global surface temperature anomaly both TSI and cloud covers have contributed about 5.07 ± 0.47% and 14.42 ± 2.13% fluctuations respectively. Additionally, we have also assessed the impact of internal climate oscillations like multivariate ENSO index (MEI), north Atlantic oscillations (NAO) and quasi biennial oscillations (QBO) on cloud cover variations. The contribution of these internal oscillations e.g. ENSO, NAO and QBO in cloud cover variation were reported as 7.48 ± 1.02%, 5.51 ± 0.16% and 1.36 ± 0.43% respectively.     

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

Variation of F-region critical frequency (foF2) over equatorial and low-latitude region of the Indian zone during 19th and 20th solar cycle

The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the daytime and nighttime F-layer ionization has been investigated over the equatorial and low-latitude region during 19th (1954–1964) and 20th (1965–1976) solar cycle. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the three Indian Ionosonde stations has been used for the present study. The dependence of foF2 on solar cycle has been examined by performing regression analysis between the foF2 values and R₁₂ (twelve month running average sunspot number). The result shows that the magnitude of the cycle, seasons and the location of station has considerable effects on foF2. There is a significant nonlinear relationship between the foF2 values and R₁₂ during 19th solar cycle as compared to 20th solar cycle. Further, the nighttime saturation effect is prominently seen during the 19th solar cycle and summer season. It is also observed that the most profound saturation effect appears at the equatorial ionization anomaly crest region. Seasonally, it is seen that all the stations exhibits semiannual anomaly. The phenomenon of winter anomaly decays as we move higher along the latitude and is prominently seen during the intense solar activity.     

太阳F10.7指数准27天振荡的小波分析

利用1956-2003年的F10.7日均值数据,采用Morlet小波变换方法,分析了准27天振荡的特征及与太阳活动11年周期(Schwabe周期)的关系.结果表明,F10.7的准27天振荡的幅度和周期存在明显的短期变化现象,不同年里变化的程度差别很大,有些年里起伏非常剧烈,在几天到几十天的很短时间里,幅度变化达十几倍,周期可变化数天,甚至发生十几天的突变;有些年里,幅度变化很大但起伏很小,周期也比较稳定.准27天振荡的年平均幅度存在明显的逐年变化,与太阳活动显著相关.一般说来,F10.7越高,准27天振荡的幅度就越大,然而在太阳活动19周峰年,F10.7比其他活动周的值都高,但准27天振荡的幅度却比其他活动周低.准27天振荡的周期也有明显的逐年变化,除了个别年(如1987年),年平均周期在24至31天之间变化,与太阳活动周期没有明显的关系.48年的平均周期为27.3天.从总体看,周期有逐渐缩短的趋势,48年里周期大约减少了1.5天.造成准27天振荡起伏的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.      

Satellite-observed biological variability in the equatorial Pacific during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle

The event of 2009–2011 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides an opportunity to gain insight into the biological variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean for an entire ENSO cycle with satellite and in situ observations. Even though El Niño and La Niña in general led to respectively weakened and enhanced chlorophyll-a concentration and net primary production (NPP) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle, biological responses were highly disparate along the equator and attributed to different driving mechanisms. In the eastern equatorial Pacific east of 150°E, the El Niño-La Niña biological change was in general small except for the transition period even though sea surface temperature (SST) showed over ∼5 °C drop from El Niño to La Niña. In the central-eastern (170°W–140°W) equatorial Pacific, moderate change of biological activity is attributed to the changes of thermocline driven by the eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves and changes of zonal currents and undercurrents. Highest biological response in this ENSO cycle was located in the central (170°E–170°W) and central-western (150°E–170°E) equatorial Pacific with quadruple chlorophyll-a concentration and over ∼400 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹ increase of NPP from El Niño in 2009 to La Niña in 2010. However, spatial pattern of ENSO biological variability as represented with NPP is not exactly the same as chlorophyll-a variability. Wind-driving mixing of nutrients and eastward advection of the oligotrophic warm pool waters are attributed to this significant biological variability in this region.     

Transient variations of vertical total electron content over some African stations from 2002 to 2012

This paper presents the vertical total electron content vTEC variations for three African stations, located at mid-low and equatorial latitudes, and operating since more than 10 years. The vTEC of the middle latitude GPS station in Alexandria, Egypt (31.2167°N; 29.9667°E, geographic) is compared to the vTEC of two others GPS stations: the first one in Rabat/Morocco (33.9981°N; 353.1457°E, geographic), and the second in Libreville/Gabon (0.3539°N; 9.6721°E, geographic). Our results discussed the diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle dependences of vTEC at the local ionospheric conditions, during different phases of solar cycle in the light of the classification of Legrand and Simon. The vTEC over Alexandria exhibits the well-known equinoctial asymmetry which changes with the phases of the solar cycle; the spring vTEC is larger than that of autumn during the maximum, decreasing and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. During the increasing phase of solar cycle 24, it is the contrary. The diurnal variation of the vTEC presents multiple maxima during the equinox from 2005 to 2008 and during the summer solstice from 2006 to 2012. A nighttime vTEC enhancement and winter anomaly are also observed. During the deep solar minimum (2006–2009) the diurnal variation of the vTEC observed over Alexandria is similar to the diurnal variation observed during quiet magnetic period at equatorial latitudes. We observed also that the amplitude of vTEC at Libreville is larger than the amplitude of vTEC observed at Alexandria and Rabat, indeed Libreville is near the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionization anomaly. Finally, the correlation coefficient between vTEC and the sunspot number Rz is high and changes with solar cycle phases.     

赤道异常的行星波周期振荡的统计特征与逐年变化及其QBO调制

利用赤道异常峰区台站(Okinawa)观测的, f₀F₂资料(1977—1990), 分析计算了赤道电离层行星波周期振荡(2日、3—4日、5—7日及10—16日)的特征及其变化规律, 发现其在一年四季都有出现, 但相对强度在冬、夏季较大, 且冬季更强;其振荡周期也随季节有所变化, 以2日波而言, 夏季更接近于2日, 而冬季则多在2日多至2日半区间振荡;更长周期的波的所谓夏季峰值的出现, 还有向夏初和夏末过渡的趋势。并发现振荡与太阳活动性呈负相关, 即低年的相对幅度要强于高年, 并且周期越长负相关越显著;同时显示出振荡的出现率及频率变化受到QBO的调制, QBO东风相期间比西风相更易于出现长周期振荡。这些结果说明赤道电离层明显受到中低层大气动力学变化的向上耦合的影响。      

Solar wind turbulence during the solar cycle deduced from Galileo coronal radio-sounding experiments

Seven coronal radio-sounding campaigns were carried out during the active lifetime of the Galileo spacecraft in the years 1994–2002. The observational data analyzed in the present work are S-band frequency fluctuation measurements recorded during the solar conjunctions at different phases of solar activity cycle #23, specifically: periods near solar maximum (three conjunctions), near solar minimum (three conjunctions) and during the ascending phase (one conjunction). These data are all applicable to low heliographic latitudes, i.e. to the slow solar wind. The rms frequency fluctuation and power-law index of the frequency fluctuation temporal spectra are determined as a function of heliocentric distance. The turbulence power spectrum tends to be flatter inside ca. 20 solar radii during all phases of the solar cycle. This coincides with a transition in the flow from the inner acceleration region to the outer region of constant velocity. The radial falloff rate and absolute level of the rms frequency fluctuation are essentially invariant over the solar cycle.     

Dependence of the F-region peak electron density (foF2) on solar activity observed in the equatorial ionospheric anomaly region in the Brazilian sector

The long-term (solar cycle) changes in the Sun and how it affects the ionospheric F-region observed at São José dos Campos (23.2° S, 45.9° W), Brazil, a location under the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly, have been investigated in this paper. The dependence of the F-region peak electron density (foF2) on solar activity during the descending phase of the 23rd solar cycle for the periods of high, medium, and low solar activity has been studied. The ionospheric F-region peak electron densities observed during high and medium solar activity show seasonal variations with maxima close to the equinox periods, whereas during the low solar activity the maxima during the equinox periods is absent. However, during the low solar activity only change observed is a large decrease from summer to winter months. We have further investigated changes in the different ionospheric F-region parameters (minimum virtual height of the F-region (h′F), virtual height at 0.834foF2 (hpF2), and foF2) during summer to winter months in low solar activity periods, 2006–2007 and 2007–2008. Large changes in the two ionospheric parameters (hpF2 and foF2) are observed during summer to winter months in the two low solar activity periods investigated.     

The equatorial ionization anomaly at the topside F region of the ionosphere along 75°E

Electron density measured by the Indian satellite SROSS C2 at the altitude of ∼500 km in the 75°E longitude sector for the ascending half of the solar cycle 22 from 1995 to 1999 are used to study the position and density of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Results show that the latitudinal position and peak electron density of the EIA crest and crest to trough ratios of the anomaly during the 10:00–14:00 LT period vary with season and from one year to another. Both EIA crest position and density are found to be asymmetric about the magnetic equator and the asymmetry depends on season as well as the year of observation, i.e., solar activity. The latitudinal position of the crest of the EIA and the crest density bears good positive correlation with F_10.7 and the strength of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ).     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004

The periodic variation of TEC data at Xiamen station (geographic coordinate: 24.4°N, 118.1°E; geomagnetic coordinate: 13.2°N, 187.4°E) at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004 is analyzed. The characteristic of TEC association with solar activity and geomagnetic activity are also analyzed. The method of continuous wavelet, cross wavelet and wavelet coherence transform methods have been used. Analysis results show that long-term variations of TEC at Xiamen station are mainly controlled by the variations of solar activities. Several remarkable components including 128–256 days, 256–512 days and 512–1024 days exist in TEC variations. The TEC data at Xiamen station is in anti-phase with geomagnetic Dst index in semiannual time-scale, but this response only exists during high solar activity. Diurnal variation of TEC is studied for different seasons. Some features like the semiannual anomaly and winter anomaly in TEC have been reported.