Influence of Fast Global Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields on Space Weather in Cycle 23

It is established that the large-scale and global magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere do not change smoothly, and long-lasting periods of gradual variations are superseded by fast structural changes of the global magnetic field. Periods of fast global changes on the Sun are accompanied by anomalous manifestations in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field. There is a regular recurrence of these periods in each cycle of solar activity, and the periods are characterized by enhanced flaring activity that reflects fast changes in magnetic structures. Is demonstrated, that the fast changes have essential influencing on a condition of space weather, as most strong geophysical disturbances are connected to sporadic phenomena on the Sun. An explanation has been offered for the origin of anomalous geomagnetic disturbances that are unidentifiable in traditionally used solar activity indices. Is shown, main physical mechanism that leads to fast variations of the magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere is the reconnection process.     

Lower ionosphere response to external forcing: A brief review

There are two ways of external forcing of the lower ionosphere, the region below an altitude of about 100 km: (1) From above, which is directly or indirectly of solar origin. (2) From below, which is directly or indirectly of atmospheric origin. The external forcing of solar origin consists of two general factors – solar ionizing radiation variability and space weather. The solar ionization variability consist mainly from the 11-year solar cycle, the 27-day solar rotation and solar flares, strong flares being very important phenomenon in the daytime lower ionosphere due to the enormous increase of the solar X-ray flux resulting in temporal terminating of MF and partly LF and HF radio wave propagation due to heavy absorption of radio waves. Monitoring of the sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs – effects of solar flares in the lower ionosphere) served in the past as an important tool of monitoring the solar activity and its impacts on the ionosphere. Space weather effects on the lower ionosphere consist of many different but often inter-related phenomena, which govern the lower ionosphere variability at high latitudes, particularly at night. The most important space weather phenomenon for the lower ionosphere is strong geomagnetic storms, which affect substantially both the high- and mid-latitude lower ionosphere. As for forcing from below, it is caused mainly by waves in the neutral atmosphere, i.e. planetary, tidal, gravity and infrasonic waves. The most important and most studied waves are planetary and gravity waves. Another channel of the troposphere coupling to the lower ionosphere is through lightning-related processes leading to sprites, blue jets etc. and their ionospheric counterparts. These phenomena occur on very short time scales. The external forcing of the lower ionosphere has observationally been studied using predominantly ground-based methods exploiting in various ways the radio wave propagation, and by sporadic rocket soundings. All the above phenomena are briefly mentioned and some of them are treated in more detail.     

太阳光球磁场特征物理量在质子事件短期预报中的应用

利用SOHO/MDI全日面纵向磁图, 计算了三个描述太阳活动区磁场复杂性和非势性的特征物理量, 即纵向磁场最大水平梯度Bz, 强梯度中性线长度L, 孤立奇点数目η. 为检验太阳光球磁场特征在质子事件短期预报中是否有效, 采用BP神经网络方法, 建立了基于这三个磁场特征物理量简单的太阳质子事件短期(24h)预报模型. 模 型在对2002年和2003年连续两年的样本检测中, 有很高的准确率(2002年和2003年 分别为90 %, 87.54 %)和较高的 质子事件报准率(2002年和2003年分别为60 %, 75 %),从而为光球磁场特征物理量作为质子事件预报的有效因子提供了依据.      

影响地球环境的太阳质子事件的时间过程

利用1966年以来的大量太阳耀斑以及相应质子事件的资料,分析研究了质子事件到达时间和极大时间同耀斑经度位置的统计关系.结果表明当耀斑位置处于经过地球的行星际大尺度场磁力线足点位置附近时,上述两种时间过程最短.这个结果支持了太阳耀斑粒子经日冕传播再向行星际空间传播的二阶段传播模型.      

太阳质子事件对太阳同步轨道空间辐射环境影响分析

介绍了南大西洋异常区的辐射环境及其特点，重点研究了发生于2000年7月14日的太阳质子事件对太阳同步轨道空间环境造成的影响，太阳质子事件期间，抵达近地空间的高能电子、质子及重离子对太阳同步轨道空间环境造成剧烈地扰动，并且不同种类不同能量的粒子扰动特征不尽相同。     

“风云一号（B）”卫星探测到的太阳质子事件

我国“风云一号(B)”气象卫星于1990年9月3日发射入轨,该星载有粒子成分监测器,用来探测空间粒子辐射环境,其中包括测量太阳耀斑时产生的太阳质子事件及其重粒子丰度;银河宇宙线异常成分与强度;内辐射带磁异常区的粒子通量及重粒子成分,“风云一号(B)”卫星运行半年来,我们已获取了上述有关的粒子辐射资料,在卫星上获得这些资料在我国尚属首次,本文主要分析观测到的太阳质子事件。     

Ray Structure of the Coronal Streamer Belt and Its Manifestation as Sharp Large Peaks of Solar Wind Plasma Density at the Earth''''s Orbit

The white-light corona calibrated data with processing level L1 from the LASCO-C2/SOHO instrument, and data from the Wind spacecraft with one-hour and one-minute time resolution on quasi-stationary slow (v between 300-450 km/s at the Earth's orbit) the Solar Wind (SW) parameters in the absence of sporadic SW streams are examined. Within distances from the Sun's center less than R in the range of 20-30 Rs, (Rs, the solar radius), slow wind is known as the streamer belt, and at larger distances it is called the He-liospheric Plasma Sheet (HPS). It is shown that the streamer belt comprises a sequence of pairs of rays. In general, ray brightnesses in each pair can differ, and the magnetic field is oppositely directed in them. The neutral line of the radial magnetic field of the Sun runs along the belt between the rays of each of the pairs. The area in which the streamer belt intersects the ecliptic plane and which lies at the central meridian, will be recorded at the earth's orbit with a time delay of 5-6 days, in the form of one or several peaks with Nmax> 10cm-3. Furthermore, the simplest density profile of the portion of the HCS has the form of two peaks of a different or identical amplitude . The such a profile is observed in cases where the angle of intersection of the streamer belt with the ecliptic plane near the Sun is sufficiently large, i.e. close to 90°. The two-ray structure of the cross-section of the streamer-belt moves from the Sun to the Earth, it retains not only the angular size of the peaks but also the relative density variations, and the position of the neutral line (sector boundary) in between. At the Earth's orbit the ray structure of the streamer belt provides the source for sharp (i.e. with steep fronts of a duration of a few minutes or shorter) solar wind plasma density peaks (of a duration of several hours) with maximum values Nmax> 10cm-3.     

A new modeling method of solar energetic proton events for ISO specification

Solar energetic protons degrade performance and reliability of spacecraft systems due to single-event effects, total dose effects and displacement damage in electronics components including solar cells. On designing a solar cell panel, a total fluence of solar energetic protons (SEPs) which cause solar cell damage is needed to estimate power loss of the solar cells over mission life. Nowadays a solar panel area of spacecraft is increasing as spacecraft mission life becomes longer (15–18 years). Thus an accurate SEP model is strongly required for the cost-minimum design from the aerospace industry. The SEP model, JPL-91 proposed by Feynman et al., is currently used widely for solar cell designing. However, it is known that the JPL-91 model predicts higher fluences of protons than values actually experienced in space, especially after 7 years on orbit. In addition, the model is based on several assumptions, and also needs Monte-Carlo simulations for calculating fluences. In this study, we propose a new method for modeling SEPs especially focused on solar cell degradation. The newly-proposed method is empirical, which constructs a model based directly upon proton flux measurement data taken by instruments onboard spacecraft. This method has neither assumptions nor dependence on SEP event selection, both of which are needed in JPL-91. The model fluences derived from this method show lower fluences in longer missions compared to JPL-91. This method has been proposed to ISO (International Organization for Standardization) and has been discussed for a new standard SEP model.     

Solar extreme events 2005–2006: Effects on near-Earth space systems and interplanetary systems

Extreme events are defined as those events in which the characteristics (e.g. field strength, speed, intensity of radiation, energies) of the associated phenomena (e.g. solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar proton events) are some orders of magnitude larger than in other events. Such strong events commonly occur about two years before and after sunspot maximum and some strong events occur as well in the declining phase before the solar activity minimum [Bothmer V., Zhukov A. The 11 Sun as the prime source of space weather, in: Bothmer, V., Daglis, I. (Eds.), Space Weather: Physics and Effects, Springer Praxis Books, 12 pp. 438, 2007]. In the first part of the paper the characteristics of the Jan. 2005 and Dec. 2006 events are given. This is followed by a presentation of the effects that were encountered on technological systems and also addresses the issue of what could have occurred on biological systems during such events. The second part of the paper deals with how one should go about analyzing solar extreme events - as part of the global distribution of all events or as ”outliers” with their own special characteristics.     

Mid-Latitude Pc1, 2 Pulsations Induced by Magnetospheric Compression in the Maximum and Early Recovery Phase of Geomagnetic Storms

We investigate the properties of interplanetary inhomogeneities generating long-lasting mid-latitude Pc1, 2 geomagnetic pulsations. The data from the Wind and IMP 8 spacecrafts, and from the Mondy and Borok midlatitude magnetic observatories are used in this study. The pulsations under investigation develop in the maximum and early recovery phase of magnetic storms. The pulsations have amplitudes from a few tens to several hundred pT andlast more than seven hours. A close association of the increase (decrease) in solar wind dynamic pressure (Psw) with the onset or enhancement (attenuation or decay) of these pulsations has been established. Contrary to high-latitude phenomena, there is a distinctive feature of the interplanetary inhomogeneities that are responsible for generation of long-lasting mid-latitude Pc1, 2. It is essential that the effect of the quasi-stationary negative Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field on the magnetosphere extends over 4 hours. Only then are the Psw pulses able to excite the above-mentioned type of mid-latitude geomagnetic pulsations. Model calculations show that in the cases under study the plasmapause can form in the vicinity of the magnetic observatory. This implies that the existence of an intense ring current resulting from the enhanced magnetospheric convection is necessary for the Pc1, 2 excitation. Further, the existence of the plasmapause above the observation point (as a waveguide) is necessary for long-lasting Pc1 waves to arrive at the ground.      

太阳质子事件与微波爆发的某些特征

选用NOAA提供的太阳质子事件表以及SGD发表的与其相关的射电多波段的观测资料进行了统计分析,试图从厘米波,毫米波爆发与质子事件的关系上寻找规律,从而获得一些有意义的结果.      

太阳质子事件警报

采用人工神经网络预报方法,利用太阳耀斑的日面位置、X射线辐射的峰值流量及其上升时间、2695MHz和8800MHz微波辐射的半积分流量等5个物理参量,提出了一个新的太阳质子事件警报方案,预报太阳质子事件的发生及其流量和时间．该方案在本文检验中达到93．75％的预报准确率．     

Thermal neutrons’ response to the GLEs

Thermal neutrons’ flux near the Earth’s crust is very sensitive regarding different processes and phenomena both in the near-Earth space and in the Earth’s crust by reason of the dual nature of the thermal neutron flux. Its first source is associated with high-energy particles of cosmic rays penetrating into the Earth’s atmosphere and interacting with its elements. The second source originates from the radioactive gases contained in the Earth’s crust. So the contributions of these two sources are specified by the Earth’s crust conditions and its movements, on one hand and variations of high-energy particles flux near the Earth.     

Sharp boundaries of solar wind plasma structures and their relationship to solar wind turbulence

Sharp (<10 min) and large (>20%) solar wind ion flux changes are common phenomena in turbulent solar wind plasma. These changes are the boundaries of small- and middle-scale solar wind plasma structures which can have a significant influence on Earth’s magnetosphere. These solar wind ion flux changes are typically accompanied by only a small change in the bulk solar wind velocity, hence, the flux changes are driven mainly by plasma density variations. We show that these events occur more frequently in high-density solar wind. A characteristic of solar wind turbulence, intermittency, is determined for time periods with and without these flux changes. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of solar wind ion flux variations for different time scales are calculated for each of these periods and compared. For large time scales, the PDFs are Gaussian for both data sets. For small time scales, the PDFs from both data set are more flat than Gaussian, but the degree of flatness is much larger for the data near the sharp flux change boundaries.     

利用行星际监测数据进行地磁暴预报

利用全连接神经网络方法应用于地磁Dst指数的预报中.对ACE卫星探测的太阳风和行星际磁场及其变化对未来几小时的Dst指数的影响进行了统计分析,发现在这些行星际实测参数中,对Dst指数作用较为明显的是太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度和行星际磁场南向分量,同时,当前Dst指数实测值对今后几小时的Dst指数已有很强的制约作用.在统计分析的基础上,建立了全连接神经网络预报模型.由于采用了全连接神经网络结构,模式能够反映出太阳风、行星际磁场等参数与地磁Dst指数参数的复杂联系,可以自动建立输入参量的最佳组合方式,提高了预报精度.通过利用大量实测数据对神经网络模式进行训练,最终建立了利用优选的ACE卫星行星际监测数据提前2 h对Dst指数进行预报.通过检测,预报的误差为14.3%.      

A comparative sporadic-E layer study between two mid-latitude ionospheric stations

Hourly systematic measurements of the highest frequency reflected by the sporadic-E layer (foEs) recorded from January 1976 to June 2009 at the ionospheric stations of Rome (Italy, 41.8°N, 12.5°E) and Gibilmanna (Italy, 37.9°N, 14.0°E) were considered to carry out a comparative study between the sporadic E layer (Es) over Rome and Gibilmanna. Different statistical analysis were performed taking into account foEs observations near the periods of minimum and maximum solar activity. The results reveal that: (1) independently from the solar activity, Es develops concurrently over extended regions in space, instead of being a spatially limited layer which is transported horizontally by neutral winds over a larger area; especially during summer months, when an Es layer is present at Rome, there is a high probability that an Es layer is also present over Gibilmanna, and vice versa; (2) Es layer lifetimes of 1–5 h were found; in particular, Es layers with lifetimes of 5 h both over Gibilmanna and Rome are observed with highest percentages of occurrence in summer ranging between 80% and 90%, independently from the solar activity; (3) latitudinal effects on Es layer occurrence emerge mostly for low solar activity during winter, equinoctial, and summer months, when Es layers are detected more frequently over Gibilmanna rather than Rome; (4) when the presence of an Es layer over Rome and Gibilmanna is not simultaneous, Es layer appearance both over Rome and Gibilmanna confirms to be a locally confined event, because drifting phenomena from Rome to Gibilmanna or vice versa have not been emphasized.     

Solar signals in the minimum extreme temperature records in the southern region of the Gulf of Mexico

Minimum extreme temperature series from several meteorological stations of the Gulf of Mexico are spectrally analyzed using the Maximum Entropy Method.We obtained significant periodicities similar to those found in meteorological and solar activity phenomena. This indicates that probably the solar activity signals are present in the minimum extreme temperature records of this Mexican region.     

Properties of solar X-ray flares and proton event forecasting

X-ray flares and acceleration processes are in one complex of sporadic solar events (together with CMEs, radio bursts, magnetic field dissipation and reconnection). This supposes the connection (if not physical, but at least statistical) between characteristics of the solar energetic proton events and flares. The statistical analysis indicates that probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends heavily on the flare importance and their heliolongitude. These relations may be used for elaboration of the forecasting models, which allow us to calculate probability of the solar proton events from the X-ray observations.     

Coronal spectroscopy: Probing sources of slow solar wind in active regions,and the early phases of solar flares

Coronal spectroscopy has pushed forward the understanding of physical processes in all phenomena on the Sun. In this review we concentrate specifically on plasma parameters measured in sources of the slow solar wind in active regions and the early phases of solar flares. These topics are a key part of the science goals of the Solar Orbiter mission (Müller et al., 2020) which has been designed to probe what drives the solar wind and solar transients that fill the heliosphere.Active regions, outside of flaring, have general characteristics that include closed loops showing red-shifted (down-flowing plasma), and the edges of the active regions showing blue-shifted (upflowing plasma). Constraining and understanding the evolution, behaviour and cause of the flows has been developed in the past years and are summarised. Of particular importance is the upflowing plasma which, in some cases, can contribute to the slow solar wind, and this review concentrates on recent results on this topic.The early phases of solar flares and their energy sources are not yet fully understood. For decades, there has been a huge interest in pin-pointing the trigger of a solar flare. Coronal spectroscopy has revealed small-scale dynamics that occurs tens of minutes before the flare begins. The understanding of the trigger is key to improving flare predictions in the future, as well as understanding the physical processes.Finally we look to the future of coronal spectroscopy, with new instruments and methodologies being developed that build on the current knowledge, and will improve significantly our physical understanding of processes at all scales on the Sun.     

太阳风质子的波能串级-回旋共振加热机制的初级模型

空间飞船Helios 1和2的观测表明, 由0.3AU, 至1AU, 质子的磁矩T_p⊥/B随日心距离增加而增加, 而纵向绝热不变量T_p∥B2/N_P2则随日心距离增加而下降。这说明质子在垂直于行星际磁场方向上受到加热, 而在平行磁场的方向上受到冷却。以往没有理论能满意地解释上述现象, 本文在Alfvén脉动串级理论的基础上利用回旋波的准线性理论分析研究了串级能量转化为太阳风质子热能的机制, 解释了上述观测事实。