Space storm measurements of the July 2005 solar extreme events from the low corona to the Earth

The Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing (ANMODAP) Center recorded an unusual Forbush decrease with a sharp enhancement of cosmic ray intensity right after the main phase of the Forbush decrease on 16 July 2005, followed by a second decrease within less than 12 h. This exceptional event is neither a ground level enhancement nor a geomagnetic effect in cosmic rays. It rather appears as the effect of a special structure of interplanetary disturbances originating from a group of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the 13–14 July 2005 period. The initiation of the CMEs was accompanied by type IV radio bursts and intense solar flares (SFs) on the west solar limb (AR 786); this group of energetic phenomena appears under the label of Solar Extreme Events of July 2005. We study the characteristics of these events using combined data from Earth (the ARTEMIS IV radioheliograph, the Athens Neutron Monitor (ANMODAP)), space (WIND/WAVES) and data archives. We propose an interpretation of the unusual Forbush profile in terms of a magnetic structure and a succession of interplanetary shocks interacting with the magnetosphere.     

23rd solar cycle: Solar activity parameters and associated Forbush decreases

We report Forbush decreases (FD) in cosmic ray intensity from January 1996 to December 2008, the whole Solar Cycle 23rd. Statistical analysis is done for only 152 events for which associated solar flare position, flare classes, and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) speed are given. We applied FD parameters taken from the Forbush Effects and Interplanetary Disturbances databases maintained by the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation (IZMIRAN), obtained by processing the data of the worldwide neutron monitor network using the global survey method (GSM) (A. Belov et al., 2018). For the said number of events, we examine their effect on interplanetary space and the decrease of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) near Earth. We found that the 11–20° latitudinal belt shows more FD- associated flare events than the other latitudinal belts, and on this belt, the Southern hemisphere is more active. The results reveal that FDs and solar flares are well correlated. Statistical analysis is carried out for the magnitude of the CR decrease with solar and geomagnetic parameters.     

Statistical analyses of influence of solar and geomagnetic activities on car accident events.

Statistical analyses of the influence of Solar and geomagnetic activity, sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and galactic cosmic ray Forbush effects on car accident events in Poland for the period of 1990-1999 have been carried out. Using auto-correlation, cross-correlation, spectral analyses and superposition epochs methods it has been shown that there are separate periods when car accident events have direct correlation with Ap index of the geomagnetic activity, sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays. Nevertheless, the single-valued direct correlation is not possible to reveal for the whole period of 1990-1999. Periodicity of 7 days and its second harmonic (3.5 days) has been reliably revealed in the car accident events data in Poland for the each year of the period 1990-1999. It is shown that the maximum car accident events take place in Poland on Friday and practically does not depend on the level of solar and geomagnetic activities.     

宇宙线强度变化与磁扰K类型

本文把1966—1983年期间发生的679个地磁暴进行了分类,利用统计方法分析了各类磁暴发生前后宇宙线强度的变化特征.突发急始脉冲发生后,宇宙线强度没有出现显著的变化;缓始型暴发生后,宇宙线强度出现Forbush下降,但下降幅度很小;急始型暴发生后,宇宙线强度出现十分明显的Forbush下降.当把急始型暴按K指数大小和持续时间分为5种类型,发现它们伴随的宇宙线Forbush下降是不一样的,其下降幅度随磁暴的增强而加大,下降的速率随磁暴的增强而加快,扰动的持续时间随磁暴的减弱而增加.      

New insights from cross-correlation studies between solar activity indices and cosmic-ray flux during Forbush decrease events

Observed galactic cosmic ray intensity can be subjected to a transient decrease. These so-called Forbush decreases are driven by coronal mass ejection induced shockwaves in the heliosphere. By combining in situ measurements by space borne instruments with ground-based cosmic ray observations, we investigate the relationship between solar energetic particle flux, various solar activity indices, and intensity measurements of cosmic rays during such an event. We present cross-correlation study done using proton flux data from the SOHO/ERNE instrument, as well as data collected during some of the strongest Forbush decreases over the last two completed solar cycles by the network of neutron monitor detectors and different solar observatories. We have demonstrated connection between the shape of solar energetic particles fluence spectra and selected coronal mass ejection and Forbush decrease parameters, indicating that power exponents used to model these fluence spectra could be valuable new parameters in similar analysis of mentioned phenomena. They appear to be better predictor variables of Forbush decrease magnitude in interplanetary magnetic field than coronal mass ejection velocities.     

Effect of Forbush decreases of cosmic ray flux on ozone at higher middle latitudes

The Forbush decreases of cosmic ray flux occur prevailingly together with geomagnetic storms, because these phenomena have a similar origin in solar/interplanetary processes. To study the effects of large Forbush decreases on total ozone at middle latitudes, we use the TOMS total ozone data along latitudinal circles 40°N and 50°N. The effects of Forbush decreases are found to occur or to be non-measurable under the same conditions as those of geomagnetic storms: certain effect occurs only at 50°N (not 40°N), in winter, under conditions of high solar activity and the east phase of the QBO. However, the effects of the analyzed Forbush decreases are weaker than the effects of strong geomagnetic storms.     

Real-time GLE alert in the ANMODAP Center for December 13, 2006

Within the last years, a real-time system to monitor high energy cosmic rays for space weather use has been operated at Athens cosmic ray station. Neutron monitors and satellite high resolution data in real time are used, making it possible to observe cosmic rays in dual energy range observations. In large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, ground level enhancement (GLE) can provide the earliest alert for the onset of the SEP event. This system watches for count rate increases recorded in real time by 23 neutron monitors, which triggers an alarm if a ground level enhancement (GLE) of cosmic ray intensity is detected.     

Research by the Tasmanian cosmic ray group during the International Geophysical Year

Systematic recording of the cosmic radiation commenced in Hobart in 1946 and at Mawson in Antarctica in 1955, making these two of the longest running cosmic ray observatories in the world. For the IGY, observations were also made at a sub-Antarctic island and near the equator, and an airborne survey of the nucleonic component was made from Geomagnetic Latitude −60°, south of Australia, to Japan and back. At Hobart there were neutron monitors, vertical and inclined muon telescopes, an ionization chamber, and two muon telescopes at ∼40 m of water equivalent underground. The research based on these and other observations determined the energy dependence of the Forbush and 11-year variations and concentrated, in particular, on understanding the anisotropic nature of galactic cosmic rays up to 150 GeV; the anisotropies in the onset phase of Forbush decreases; and the anisotropies in solar cosmic ray events. An investigation was initiated to calculate the trajectories and cutoff rigidities of cosmic rays in a high order simulation of the geomagnetic field. This was completed in 1959–60.     

Applications and usage of the real-time Neutron Monitor Database

A high-time resolution Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) has started to be realized in the frame of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission. This database will include cosmic ray data from at least 18 neutron monitors distributed around the world and operated in real-time. The implementation of the NMDB will provide the opportunity for several research applications most of which will be realized in real-time mode. An important one will be the establishment of an Alert signal when dangerous solar cosmic ray particles are heading to the Earth, resulting into ground level enhancements effects registered by neutron monitors. Furthermore, on the basis of these events analysis, the mapping of all ground level enhancement features in near real-time mode will provide an overall picture of these phenomena and will be used as an input for the calculation of the ionization of the atmosphere. The latter will be useful together with other contributions to radiation dose calculations within the atmosphere at several altitudes and will reveal the absorbed doses during flights. Moreover, special algorithms for anisotropy and pitch angle distribution of solar cosmic rays, which have been developed over the years, will also be set online offering the advantage to give information about the conditions of the interplanetary space. All of the applications will serve the needs of the modern world which relies at space environment and will use the extensive network of neutron monitors as a multi-directional spectrographic detector. On top of which, the decreases of the cosmic ray intensity – known as Forbush decreases – will also be analyzed and a number of important parameters such as galactic cosmic ray anisotropy will be made available to the users of NMDB. A part of the NMDB project is also dedicated to the creation of a public outreach website with the scope to inform about cosmic rays and their possible effects on humans, technological systems and space-terrestrial environment. Therefore, NMDB will also stand as an informative gate on space research through neutron monitor’s data usage.     

Two intense Forbush decreases of solar activity cycle 22

We study two intense Forbush decreases that occurred during two adjacent SOLTIP (Solar connection of Transient Interplanetary Processes) intervals; namely SOLTIP 1 (22–27 March 1991) and SOLTIP 2 (1–17 June 1991); galactic cosmic ray intensity at the depth of the second Forbush decrease was the lowest ever recorded since continuous monitoring by Climax neutron monitor began in 1951 (58% below the solar minimum value of 1954), indicating extreme conditions in the heliosphere that prevented galactic cosmic rays from reaching the Earth. These decreases were seen propagating in outer heliosphere by the deep space missions Voyagers 1, 2 and Pioneer 10, 11, with suitable time delays. We analyze hourly, pressure corrected, neutron monitor data from the global sites in both hemispheres, and muon telescopes located underground; they respond to 10–300 GV range of the galactic cosmic ray spectrum. This circumstance provides us an ideal opportunity to study the rigidity dependence of the amplitudes of the two Forbush decreases. In both cases the amplitude is found to be a power law in rigidity, with negative exponents.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.     

Preliminary search for cosmic radiation and solar-terrestrial parameters correlated with the reversal of the solar magnetic field

A statistical study has been made of cosmic ray intensity, as observed by a neutron monitor, and of selected solar and geophysical parameters in a search for phenomena which may be associated with the reversal of the solar magnetic field. The results reported here utilized the Zurich sunspot number and the geomagnetic aa index. There is an intriguing, but not conclusive, result that shows a vast difference in the correlation of the neutron monitor intensity and the aa index between successive periods bounded by solar maxima. Between the 19th solar cycle maximum (March 1958) and the 20th solar cycle maximum (November 1968), and the 20th solar cycle maximum (November 1968) and the 21st solar cycle maximum (assumed to be December 1979 for this study) the correlations are ?0.86 and +0.28 respectively.     

宇宙线福布什下降的数值模拟

本文从银河宇宙线的太阳调制方程出发,认为激波对宇宙线的影响是由一扰动区产生的。在此扰动区中太阳风速度增加,扩散系数下降。由此进行了数值模拟,模拟结果表明:扩散系数的下降在产生福布什下降时要比太阳风速度的增加更为有效;福布什下降在近日球层内向外传播时,其幅度随径向距离的增大而衰减;两个无相互作用的激波同时存在时所产生的福布什下降为每个激波单独存在时的福布什下降的简单线性迭加。      

Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center – ANMODAP Center

Cosmic ray measurements in Athens were initiated in November 2000 with a standard 6NM-64 neutron monitor. Within the last years an effort has been made in order to construct an effective database of neutron monitor (NM) and satellite data in real-time, regarding the necessities of space weather monitoring (Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center – ANMODAP Center). The prospective goal of this network is to make possible the receiving of all data in real-time in close sequence from all servers around the globe. The graphical representation of all these data in real-time is available through the website of the station (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr). Moreover, a second database that collects data with 1-min resolution operates in a parallel mode. The online services as a special ‘Alert’ algorithm for Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) and some models created to analyze aspects of GLEs as the neutron monitor Basic Anisotropic Neutron Ground Level Enhancement (BANGLE) model and the Forbush Decreases (FORD) model as well, are presented. Moreover, a short account on work performed on the possible relationship between the geomagnetic activity level and the biological effects is given.     

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic and possible association with solar activity and galactic cosmic rays

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic for the period 1874–1995 (Mean Sea Level Pressure archive, Climatic Research Unit, UK) were compared with indices of solar and geomagnetic activity and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations characterized by the concentration of the cosmogenic isotope ¹⁰Be. A periodicity of ∼80 yrs close to the Gleissberg cycle in the intensity of the 11-yr solar cycles was found in the pressure variations at middle latitudes (45–65°N) in the cold half of the year, which is the period of intensive cyclogenesis. It was shown that a long-term increase of pressure in this region coincided with a secular rise of solar/geomagnetic activity which was accompanied by a decrease in GCR intensity. Long-term decreases of pressure were observed during the periods of low (or decreasing) intensities of sunspot cycles. Similar features were also found in the spectral characteristics of geomagnetic activity indices, GCR intensity and pressure at middle latitudes on the quasi-decadal time scale. Effects of solar activity/GCR variations on the surface pressure seem to be more pronounced in the North Atlantic zone of intensive cyclogenesis (near the eastern coasts of North America). The results obtained suggest possible links between long-term variations in cyclonic activity at extratropical latitudes of the North Atlantic and solar activity/GCR variations on the time scales from ∼10 to ∼100 yrs.     

On statistical relationship of solar, geomagnetic and human activities.

Data of galactic cosmic rays, solar and geomagnetic activities and solar wind parameters on the one side and car accident events (CAE) in Poland on the other have been analyzed in order to reveal the statistical relationships among them for the period of 1990-2001. Cross correlation and cross spectrum of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, the solar wind (SW) velocity, Kp index of geomagnetic activity and CAE in Poland have been carried out. It is shown that in some epochs of the above-mentioned period there is found a reliable relationship between CAE and solar and geomagnetic activities parameters in the range of the different periodicities, especially, 7 days. The periodicity of 7 days revealed in the data of the CAE has the maximum on Friday without any exception for the minimum and maximum epochs of solar activity. However, the periodicity of 7 days is reliably revealed in other parameters characterizing galactic cosmic rays, SW, solar and geomagnetic activities, especially for the minimum epoch of solar activity. The periodicity of 3.5 days found in the series of CAE data more or less can be completely ascribed to the social effects, while the periodicity of 7 days can be ascribed to the social effect or/to the processes on the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in the Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere.     

Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data

A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper, we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere, which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases, reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field, we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering).     

Ionization effect of solar protons in the Earth atmosphere – Case study of the 20 January 2005 SEP event

The cosmic ray ground level enhancement on January 20, 2005 is among the largest recorded events in the history of cosmic ray measurements. The solar protons of MeV energies cause an excess of ionization in the atmosphere, specifically over polar caps following major solar disturbances. The ionization effect in the Earth atmosphere is obtained for various latitudes on the basis of solar proton energy spectra, reconstructed from GOES 11 measurements and subsequent full Monte Carlo simulation of cosmic ray induced atmospheric cascade. The estimation of ionization rates is based on a numerical model for cosmic ray induced ionization. The evolution of atmospheric cascade is performed with the CORSIKA 6.52 code using FLUKA 2006b and QGSJET II hadron interaction models. The atmospheric ion rate ionization is explicitly obtained for 40°N, 60°N and 80°N latitudes. The time evolution of obtained ion rates is presented. It is demonstrated that ionization effect is negative for 40°N and small for 60°N, because of accompanying Forbush decrease. The ionization effect is significant only in sub-polar and polar atmosphere during the major ground level enhancement of 20 January 2005.