概率具有普遍意义

在事物必然的性质、方向和由此决定的活动范围之外,它发生、发展的每一具体变化都是偶然的.为了抓住偶然,就要求助于概率,概率已经成为我们的重要工具.     

地空导弹武器系统杀伤目标概率计算模型

本文通过对雷达发现目标概率、单发导弹杀伤目标概率等问题的分析，导出了地空导弹武器系统杀伤目标概率的计算模型，为定量分析地空导弹武器系统的作战能力提供了依据。     

电子干扰下GPS接收机C／A码捕获概率的分析

本文从对GPS信号的结构出发，在单频、宽带及部分频带干扰模式下，分析了GPS接收机C／A码捕获过程的检测概率和虚警概率等性能指标。分析结果表明，当干扰功率超过一定值后，虽然检测概率有所增加，但虚警概率将急剧恶化，在中频信干比相同时，窄带干扰较宽带干扰效果明显。     

主导概率数据关联及算法

本文给出主导概率数据关联（ＤＰＤＡ）及算法，定义主导联合事件和主导概率，考虑实际目标环境可行联合事件出现为非等概率，导出主导概率数据关联计算方法，它无需计算所有行联合事件的联合率，从而克服了联合概率数据关联（ＪＰＤＡ）的组合问题，本文证明了ＤＰＤＡ性能上限不低于ＪＰＤＡ，下限低于ＰＤＡ，而下限出现的概率极小。本文给出了ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ仿真表明ＤＰＤＡ算法具有很好的性能和较高的实用价值。     

对巡航导弹撞地有关因素的仿真研究

研究了巡航导弹低空地形跟踪飞行的撞地概率问题，针对地形随机输入和低空风随机干扰共同作用的情况，研究了撞地概率的仿真计算方法，在给定条件下求出了它们与撞地概率的关系曲线，分析了它们对撞地概率的影响，从中可以看出，协调参数，能有效降低撞地概率，提高巡航导弹的作战效能。     

基于概率数据关联的地形辅助导航算法

地形辅助导航是解决惯性导航系统定位误差随时间不断增大的缺点重要方法之一，论文在分析概率数据关联滤波器的基础上，提出了一种基于概率数据关联滤波的新的地形辅助导航算法。算法把满足一定条件的相关值作为滤波器的有效量测，把飞行器的位置作为状态，建立了基于概率数据关联的地形辅助导航模型，利用概率数据关联滤波算法计算飞行器的位置坐标。仿真结果表明该算法的正确匹配率、均方根误差和圆概率误差均优干TERCOM算法。     

空间目标碰撞概率的等效矩形域快速算法

针对线性相对运动假设下的碰撞概率计算问题，提出了等效矩形域方法。利用该方法将概率积分计算进行近似处理，推导出概率密度积分的解析表达式。针对空间目标误差椭球形状固定的情况，给出了最大碰撞概率的计算方法。对目标在交会时刻相距较远和接近碰撞的情况进行了碰撞概率以及最大碰撞概率计算。通过将计算结果与空间压缩无穷级数法的对比，验证了等效矩形域方法近似计算碰撞概率积分的可靠性，同时对于不同的碰撞概率计算情况，等效矩形域方法显示出更高精确度和更好的估计偏差稳定性。     

稳健可靠性：概念、方法和应用

传统的可靠性是由概率定义的，认为“系统失效概率越小，系统越可靠”，针对这种概率可靠性要求较多的统计数据和结果难以验证等的固有缺陷，国外90年代提出了一种新的、非概率的可靠性概念，这种非概率可靠性认为“系统性能波动的范围越小，系统越可靠”。或者说“系统抗干扰的能力越强，系统越可靠”。这正是稳健性的概念，因此可以称之为稳健可靠性。对于不确定的信息较少、不确定程度较严重的工程问题，它是一种理想的不确定性分析模型。稳健可靠性概念的提出，为可靠性工程的发展开辟了新的途径。本文结合算例介绍了稳健可靠性的基本概念、解题思路、国内外研究近况和发展前景。     

基于误差随机过程无人飞行器的撞地概率计算公式

在误差随机过程为平稳正态过程的假设下，研究了无人飞行器撞地概率的计算问题。在已知地形数据的情况下，从理论上推导出无人飞行器只受到垂直干扰时的撞地概率的计算公式；并在仅利用地形特征参数的情况下，得到了较为简洁的计算公式，在进行无人飞行器航迹规划过程中可以实现撞地概率的实时计算。给出了无人飞行器既受到垂直干扰又受到水平干扰时的撞地概率的计算公式，并对它们的计算作了简化，得到了一个近似计算公式。讨论了撞地概率计算公式的应用问题，分析了误差随机过程的标准差、飞行器机动带宽及地形标准差对撞地概率的影响。     

非线性相对运动的飞行器碰撞概率研究

发展了一种非线性相对运动情况下的飞行器碰撞概率描述和计算方法。采用拟最大瞬时碰撞概率和总碰撞概率两个主要指标来定量描述飞行器碰撞的危险性，并针对这两个指标发展了相应的计算方法。对于拟最大瞬时碰撞概率的计算，首先需要在相对轨迹上寻找最小相对距离或最大概率密度的点，然后在这个点上计算拟最大瞬时碰撞概率。对于总碰撞概率的计算，由于总碰撞概率的增量可以表示成一个时间的函数，因此总碰撞概率的计算就是一个在时间域上的积分。所建立的这种描述和计算方法适用于相对速度和误差协方差矩阵随时间任意变化的情况。数值算例表明所提出的指标比单纯采用总碰撞概率能够更好的描述飞行器的碰撞危险性，并且碰撞概率的计算方法和线性相对运动情况下的计算方法是兼容的。     

Human spaceflight and an asteroid redirect mission: Why?

The planning of human spaceflight programmes is an exercise in careful rationing of a scarce and expensive resource. Current NASA plans are to develop the new capability for human-rated launch into space to replace the Space Transportation System (STS), more commonly known as the Space Shuttle, combined with a heavy lift capability, and followed by an eventual Mars mission. As an intermediate step towards Mars, NASA proposes to venture beyond Low Earth Orbit to cis-lunar space to visit a small asteroid which will be captured and moved to lunar orbit by a separate robotic mission. The rationale for this and how to garner support from the scientific community for such an asteroid mission are discussed. Key points that emerge are that a programme usually has greater legitimacy when it emerges from public debate, mostly via a Presidential Commission, a report by the National Research Council or a Decadal Review of science goals etc. Also, human spaceflight missions need to have support from a wide range of interested communities. Accordingly, an outline scientific case for a human visit to an asteroid is made. Further, it is argued here that the scientific interest in an asteroid mission needs to be included early in the planning stages, so that the appropriate capabilities (here the need for drilling cores and carrying equipment to, and returning samples from, the asteroid) can be included.     

柔性多体卫星自抗扰控制系统的研究

设计了一种新型的姿态控制器一姿态自抗扰控制器。采用简化了的刚体动力学模型，即把柔性太阳帆板与柔性天线等的振动都看作外干扰，对象的不确定性、未建模动态与外干扰的总量都由自抗扰控制器估计出，再用该估计总量实现动态反馈补偿。该姿态控制器，只需控制输入转换矩阵的估计值，无需精确的卫星动力学模型。改变星体转动惯量或设置干扰力矩情况下的数学仿真表明，所设计的自抗扰控制器具有较小的稳态误差、较快的动态响应及对干扰有较强的抑制能力。     

The development of a Russian communication satellite of small class, operating in the geostationary and high-elliptical orbits

In 1994-1995 Lavochkin Association (Russia) together with the other enterprises in accordance with technical requirements of the Russian Space agency, developed a new Russian communication satellite of a small class that will operate in both the geostationary (GSO) and high-elliptical (HEO) orbits. This satellite may be injected into operational orbits using a SOYUZ-2 launch vehicle (LV) and a FREGAT upper stage (US) from Plesetsk and Baykonur space launch sites (SLS).The main reason for creating such a satellite was to decrease the cost of the support and development of the Russian communication geostationary satellites group.Russian satellites Horizont, Express, Ekran and Gals, which operate in GSO, are the basis of the space segment for communications, radio and TV broadcasting. All of these satellites are injected into GSO by the PROTON LV. PROTON is a launch vehicle of a heavy class. The use of a middle class LV instead of a heavy class will allow to reduce considerably the launch cost. The change of a heavy class LV to a LV of middle class determined one economic reason for this project. Besides, the opportunity to launch S/C into GSO from Russian Plesetsk SLS increases the independence of Russia in the domain of space communications, despite the presence of the contract with Kazachstan about the rent of Baykonur SLS. Finally, use of small satellites with a rather small number of transponders is more effective than the use of big satellites. It will allow also to increase a satellite group (by the launch of additional satellites) precisely in accordance to the development of the ground segment.     

Conceptual study and key technology development for Mars Aeroflyby sample collection

Conceptual study of Mars Aeroflyby Sample Collection (MASC) is conducted as a part of the next Mars exploration mission currently entertained in Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. In the mission scenario, an atmospheric entry vehicle is flown into the Martian atmosphere, collects the Martian dust particles as well as atmospheric gases during the guided hypersonic flight, exits the Martian atmosphere, and is inserted into a parking orbit from which a return system departs for the earth to deliver the dust and gas samples. In order to accomplish a controlled flight and a successful orbit insertion, aeroassist orbit transfer technologies are introduced into the guidance and control system. System analysis is conducted to assess the feasibility and to make a conceptual design, finding that the MASC system is feasible at the minimum system mass of 600 kg approximately. The aerogel, which is one of the candidates for the dust sample collector, is assessed by arcjet heating tests to examine its behavior when exposed to high-temperature gases, as well as by particle impingement tests to evaluate its dust capturing capability.     

Rats in a transparent morris water maze use elemental and configural geometry of landmarks as well as distance to the pool wall

The aim of this study is to evaluate whatare the dimensions of a panorama of discretelandmarks that a rodent will store in order toreturn to a previously visited target. Ratswere trained to locate a hidden platform in acircular pool of clouded water set within aquasi-spherical enclosure. In order to find theplatform, they had to learn the geometricrelations between the platform and asurrounding set of three discrete landmarks,highly visible through the transparent wall ofthe pool. In test trials without a platform,the array of landmarks was so manipulated as todissociate the effect of actual distance to thelandmarks, of their angular separation, and oftheir apparent dimension. Animals were shown torely equally on angular separation and apparentdimension. The role of actual distance couldnot be definitely ascertained, as animals wereshown to additionally rely on the distance tothe pool wall in order to locate theplatform.     

导弹机动突防滑模制导律

为了得到一种用于导弹机动突防的制导律,我们在制导律设计中令视线角速率跟踪正弦有界震荡信号.在导弹机动突防过程中,导弹自动驾驶仪的惯性滞后会影响制导精度.我们利用递推李雅普诺夫设计方法推导出了一种考虑自动驾驶仪惯性的运动跟踪滑模制导律,它可以令视线角速率跟踪给定的指令信号.仿真结果表明,这种制导律可以令导弹机动突防成功的概率提高到89%,而且在自动驾驶仪滞后情况下的制导精度很高,脱靶量仅有0.3mm.     

The Global Exploration Roadmap and its significance for NASA

The Global Exploration Roadmap reflects the collaborative effort of twelve space agencies to define a long-term human space exploration strategy which provides substantial benefits for improving the quality of life on Earth and is implementable and sustainable. Such a strategy is a necessary precondition to the government investments required to enable the challenging and rewarding missions that extend human presence into the solar system. The article introduces the international strategy and elaborates on NASA's leadership role in shaping that strategy. The publication of the roadmap, a reflection of the space landscape and multilateral agency-level dialog over the last four years, allows NASA to demonstrate its commitment to leading a long-term space exploration endeavor that delivers benefits, maintains strategic human spaceflight capabilities and expands human presence in space, with human missions to the surface of Mars as a driving goal. The road mapping process has clearly demonstrated the complementary interests of the participants and the potential benefits that can be gained through cooperation among nations to achieve a common goal. The present US human spaceflight policy is examined and it is shown that the establishment of a sustainable global space exploration strategy is fully consistent with that policy.     

Tethered towing using open-loop input-shaping and discrete thrust levels

Asteroid retrieval, satellite servicing, and debris removal concepts often rely on a thrusting vehicle to redirect and steer a passive object. One effective way to tow the object is through a tether. This study employs a discretized tether model attached to six degree-of-freedom end bodies. To reduce the risk of a post-burn collision between the end bodies, discrete thrust input shaping profiles are considered including a Posicast input and a bang-off-bang thrust profile. These input shaping techniques attain desirable collision avoidance performance by inducing a tumbling or gravity gradient motion of the tethered formation. Their performance is compared to an earlier frequency notched thruster profile.     

采用改进非支配近邻免疫算法的低轨混合星座设计优化

针对低轨同构星座覆盖资源在纬度上分布不均匀的不足,提出采用低轨混合星座提升覆盖均匀性的设计方案,并推导了满足全球任意点平均每天覆盖一定次数的最小卫星规模估算公式。针对非支配近邻免疫算法（NNIA）约束处理方面的不足,提出基于约束支配的改进非支配近邻免疫算法（Modified NNIA）,并以此设计了一种低轨混合星座优化平台来优化带约束的星座设计问题。仿真结果表明,改进的NNIA算法在收敛速度和多样性上均优于非支配分层遗传算法（NSGA II）和多目标粒子群算法（MOPSO）,可大大提高星座设计的效率。同时优化结果也表明低轨混合星座可提高覆盖的均匀性和大部分区域的覆盖次数,进而减少特定覆盖要求所需的卫星数目。     

非合作大目标位姿测量的线结构光视觉方法

空间机器人与非合作大目标交会接近最终段,单目相机不能获取完整的特征图像而无法完成相对位姿测量。针对此问题,提出基于线结构光和单目视觉的相对位姿测量方法。以非合作大目标上的局部矩形特征为测量对象,首先,建立相对位姿测量模型并给出四个测量坐标系之间的关系;其次,通过相机对不完整矩形和线结构光的约束获得四个特征点在相机坐标系下的坐标;然后,利用四个特征点计算相机坐标系与目标坐标系之间的转移矩阵;最后,将转移矩阵分解得到矩形特征的相对位姿。通过改变影响测量精度的输入误差和标定误差等因素对该方法进行仿真验证,结果表明该测量方法是有效的。