结合光球磁场特征物理量的质子事件短期预报

利用描述太阳活动区光球磁场复杂性和非势性特征的三个物理量(纵向磁场最大水平梯度|▽_hB_z |_m, 强梯度中性线长度L, 孤立奇点数目η)建立了质子事件短期预报模型, 验证了磁场特征物理量对质子事件短期预报的有效性. 目前已建立或使用的太阳质子事件短期预报模型中仍然没有正式将磁场特征物理量作为预报因子. 由于太阳质子事件是小概率事件, 其物理产生机制尚不完全清楚, 这些预报模型往往存在虚报率偏高或报准率偏低的问题. 本文试图将原有质子事件模型所用的传统因子与磁场特征物理量结合起来, 利用神经网络方法建立一个更为有效的质子事件短期预报模型. 利用1997--2001年的训练数据集1871个样本建立了输入层为传统预报因子的模型A以及输入层为传统预报因子和磁场特征物理量的模型B. 通过对2002--2003年973个样本的测试数据集进行模拟预报发现, 模型A与B在具有相同质子事件报准率的情况下, 模型B的虚报率明显降低. 这进一步验证了磁场特征物理量在质子事件短期预报中的作用, 进而可以加强对太阳质子事件的实际预报能力.      

Analysis of radiation risk from alpha particle component of solar particle events.

The solar particle events (SPE) will contain a primary alpha particle component, representing a possible increase in the potential risk to astronauts during an SPE over the often studied proton component. We discuss the physical interactions of alpha particles important in describing the transport of these particles through spacecraft and body shielding. Models of light ion reactions are presented and their effects on energy and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra in shielding discussed. We present predictions of particle spectra, dose, and dose equivalent in organs of interest for SPE spectra typical of those occurring in recent solar cycles. The large events of solar cycle 19 are found to have substantial increase in biological risk from alpha particles, including a large increase in secondary neutron production from alpha particle breakup.     

基于GM(1,1)与灰区间估计的SPE通量水平长期预测

太阳质子事件（SPE,Solar Proton Events）是干扰日地空间最主要的源,大规模质子事件会影响在轨空间站实验设备的可靠性,有时甚至会威胁空间站的安全运行.提出一种基于灰色GM（1,1）和区间估计太阳质子事件预测方法;首先对1976—2010年SPE通量水平数据进行预处理,分别建立以发生时间为序列的一般SPE通量序列与极端SPE通量序列;之后将灰色GM（1,1）与区间估计相结合建立预测方法,融合反映一般SPE通量水平随周期性波动的活跃性调节系数,建立SPE通量水平长期预测模型;然后叠加不同SPE类型所得结果合成预测年份的SPE通量水平,给出未来一年或几年间SPE通量水平的变化范围;最后选取1976—2010年太阳质子事件年均值数据,分多批次预测1996—1998年和1999—2001年等SPE通量均值区间,结果表明各年实际发生SPE的通量均值均位于预测区间内,并且多年预测区间偏差最大值小于26%,实验结果还表明单次预测时长以2~3年为宜.     

太阳光球磁场特征物理量在质子事件短期预报中的应用

利用SOHO/MDI全日面纵向磁图, 计算了三个描述太阳活动区磁场复杂性和非势性的特征物理量, 即纵向磁场最大水平梯度Bz, 强梯度中性线长度L, 孤立奇点数目η. 为检验太阳光球磁场特征在质子事件短期预报中是否有效, 采用BP神经网络方法, 建立了基于这三个磁场特征物理量简单的太阳质子事件短期(24h)预报模型. 模 型在对2002年和2003年连续两年的样本检测中, 有很高的准确率(2002年和2003年 分别为90 %, 87.54 %)和较高的 质子事件报准率(2002年和2003年分别为60 %, 75 %),从而为光球磁场特征物理量作为质子事件预报的有效因子提供了依据.      

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

神经网络方法在太阳质子事件短期预报中的应用

在大量统计结果的基础上,深入研究了太阳质子事件预报机理．总结了质子事件爆发与太阳活动区面积、位置、McIntosh结构、磁结构以及前两天活动区爆发耀斑事件数目之间的关系．然后,在神经网络的基础上建立了太阳质子事件短期预报模型,并对2000年以后12个未参加训练的样本进行测试,结果对事件预报的准确率为83％．此外,我们还利用该模型对2002年1-4月发生的几次质子事件进行了预报试验,结果发现,这期间发生的6次事件都被预报．其中3次质子事件系统预报提前了3天,两次事件预报提前了2天,一次事件提前1天预报．     

Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information.

Protection from the radiation effects of solar particle events for deep space mission crews requires a warning system to observe solar flares and predict subsequent charged particle fluxes. Such a system relates precursor information observed in each flare to the intensity, delay, and duration of the subsequent Solar Particle Event (SPE) at other locations in the solar system. A warning system of this type is now in operation at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado for support of space missions. It has been used to predict flare particle fluxes at the earth for flares of Solar Cycle 22. The flare parameters used and the effectiveness of the current warning system, based on Solar Cycle 22 experience, are presented, with an examination of the shortcomings. Needed improvements to the system include more complete observations of solar activity, especially information on the occurrences of solar mass ejections; and consideration of the effects of propagation conditions in the solar corona and interplanetary medium. Requirements for solar observations and forecasting systems on board the spacecraft are discussed.     

太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑的关系

通过对0°W-39°W,40°W-70°W,71°W-90°W经度范围内太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑的相关性计算分析,发现太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑的相关系数依赖于经度.太阳耀斑积分与地球磁链接区域（40°W-70°W）太阳质子事件强度的相关系数最大.相关系数的这种特点与耀斑加速粒子的最大流量只出现在磁链接区域的特征相吻合.计算结果表明,太阳耀斑对太阳质子事件具有贡献,即耀斑对E ≥ 10MeV的质子加速有贡献.耀斑和CME在磁链接区域对太阳质子事件的贡献相同,这说明太阳质子事件是混合型事件.      

全球空间天气路线图及对中国的启示

随着科技的发展,空间天气对电力系统、通信导航系统和航天资产等遍布全球的技术基础设施的影响越来越深.需要加强对空间天气事件过程的理解,提升空间天气的预报能力,优化基础设施设计,从而减缓空间天气对社会造成的影响.基于这些需求,国际空间研究委员会(COSPAR)联合国际与日共存计划(ILWS)共同成立专家组,研究制定了全球2015-2025空间天气发展路线图.本文对该路线图进行介绍和解读,讨论该路线图对中国空间天气发展的启示.     

Cyclone regeneration in the North Atlantic intensified by energetic solar proton events

Atmospheric effects of energetic solar proton events (SPE) were studied in the North Atlantic region, for particle energies above 90 MeV, using NCEP/NCER reanalysis data and weather charts. A significant lowering of the pressure levels in the troposphere accompanied by an increase of the cyclonic vorticity was found near the south-eastern coast of Greenland on days following the event onsets. According to the weather charts, the detected effects are caused by the re-deepening (the regeneration) of well developed cyclones that seems to be intensified during the SPE under study. A joint analysis of the pressure and temperature variations showed a noticeable decrease of the temperature in the rear of the deepening cyclones that may be due to the cold advection increase. The results obtained suggest the influence of energetic SPE on the cyclone development as well as the importance of the frontal zone situated near the Greenland coast for this influence. The physical mechanism may involve the increase of cold advection due to changes in the temperature gradients in this region, resulting from radiative forcing and/or latent heat release related to variations of cloudiness.     

CNS effects of heavy particle irradiation in space: behavioral implications.

Research from several sources indicates that young (3 mo) rats exposed to heavy particle irradiation (56Fe irradiation) produces changes in motor behavior as well as alterations in neuronal transmission similar to those seen in aged (22-24 mo) rats. These changes are specific to neuronal systems that are affected by aging. Since 56Fe particles make up approximately 1-2% of cosmic rays, these findings suggest that the neuronal effects of heavy particle irradiation on long-term space flights may be significant, and may even supercede subsequent mutagenic effects in their mission capabilities. It is suggested that among other methods, it may be possible to utilize nutritional modification procedures to offset the putative deleterious effects of these particles in space.     

全晕CME与太阳质子事件的关系

日冕物质抛射（CME）是太阳质子事件的重要源头.CME的速度和源区位置是太阳质子事件产生的重要因素.通过统计最近5年全晕CME与太阳质子事件的关系发现,速度大且源区位置距离日面上连接地球磁力线足点近的全晕CME更易引发太阳质子事件,其中速度大于1200km…-1、角距离60°以内的样本引发太阳质子事件的概率最高.对3个未引发太阳质子事件的高速全晕CME进行了详细分析,发现CME的主体爆发方向和行星际磁场环境的变化也影响太阳质子事件的产生.因此,在太阳质子事件的实际预报中,综合CME爆发速度、源区位置、主体抛射方向和行星际环境等多个因素才能给出更准确的事件预报结果.      

Advances in modeling gradual solar energetic particle events

Solar energetic particles pose one of the most serious hazards to space probes, satellites and astronauts. The most intense and largest solar energetic particle events are closely associated with fast coronal mass ejections able to drive interplanetary shock waves as they propagate through interplanetary space. The simulation of these particle events requires knowledge of how particles and shocks propagate through the interplanetary medium, and how shocks accelerate and inject particles into interplanetary space. Several models have appeared in the literature that attempt to model these energetic particle events. Each model presents its own simplifying assumptions in order to tackle the series of complex phenomena occurring during the development of such events. The accuracy of these models depends upon the approximations used to describe the physical processes involved in the events. We review the current models used to describe gradual solar energetic particle events, their advances and shortcomings, and their possible applications to space weather forecasting.     

基于集成学习的太阳质子事件短期预报方法

太阳质子事件是一种由太阳活动爆发时喷射并传播到近地空间的高能粒子引起的空间天气现象。这些高能粒子会对航天器和宇航员产生严重危害,对太阳质子事件进行准确的短期预报是航天活动灾害预防的重要内容。针对当前主要预报模型中普遍存在的高虚报率问题,提出了一种基于集成学习的太阳质子事件短期预报方法,利用第23个太阳活动周数据,建立了一种集成8种机器学习模型的太阳质子事件短期预报系统。实验结果表明,本文方法在取得了80.95%的报准率的同时,将虚报率降低至19.05%,相比现有的预报系统具有较为明显的优势。      

Experimental investigations of quasistable radiation belts formed after solar proton events in September–October 1989 and March 1991 based on measurements made by “Liulin” dosimeter-radiometer on board the “MIR” space station

Since 1988 high sensitivity dosimeter-radiometer “Liulin” has been installed on board the MIR space station. Device measured absorbed dose rate and flux of penetrating particles. Results of measurements showed that after powerful solar proton events (SPE) September–October, 1989 and March, 1991 additional quasistable radiation belts were formed in the near earth space within the interval L=1.8−3.0. These “new” belts were observed as an additional maximums in flux (and sometimes dose) channels when crossing the SAA region. “New” belts were quasi stable and existed at least several months, decaying slightly after SPE. Dose to flux ratio analysis showed that major components of these belts were energetic electrons and protons arising in connection with preceding SPEs.     

冕洞相关地磁Ap指数中短期预报方法研究

地磁Ap指数是描述全球地磁活动水平的重要指数, 过去许多参考大气模式中都用Ap指数来表述地磁活动状态, 大气模式的运行需要输入地磁Ap指数, 因此, 地磁Ap指数的预报一直是空间环境预报中一个非常重要的内容. 针对太阳活动低年冕洞引起的地磁扰动具有明显27天重现的特性, 利用修正的自回归方法, 对地磁Ap指数进行了提前27天的预报; 采用从SOHO/EIT观测资料发展出来的描述冕洞特性的Pch因子, 进行了提前三天的地磁Ap指数预报. 结果显示, 将统计方法与物理分析相结合, 进行地磁Ap指数的中短期数值预报, 可以得到较好的预报效果.      

Up-to-date observations of space energetic particles made by the Chinese satellite Fengyun-1 (B).

This paper presents the observational results of space energetic particles obtained by the Cosmic Ray Composition Monitor (CRCM) onboard the Chinese satellite, Fengyun-1(B). These results, including those of a few solar proton events, the geomagnetically trapped particles and the anomalous cosmic ray components, were obtained from 3 September 1990 to 15 February 1991. The observed elements include H, He, C, N, O and Fe of energies from 4-23 MeV/u. It was found that the proton fluxes of the inner Radiation Belt (IRB) increased obviously during the period of solar proton event (SPE). A few kinds of heavy ions (Z > or = 6) were also detected in the IRB. As to the anomalous cosmic ray component (ACRC), in addition to C, N and O, anomalous iron particles were also recorded.     

Improved environment radiation models

The two components of the space radiation environment, galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles, are of special importance for the planning of space missions and designing space vehicles for flights in the inner heliosphere. There is a constant need for developing and updating the models for calculating the fluxes of these particles for purposes of forecasting radiation conditions anticipated for future flights, including missions to the Moon and Mars.     

Results About Ocean Satellite Observation

They have played more and more important roles in marine pollution monitoring, marine environment and marine disaster monitor and forecasting, marine resource investigation and marine scientific research. In this paper, the author will give a brief review of China's operational and scientific activities in satellites ocean observation during 2008 to 2010. These activities include the application of the HY-1B for red tide and green tide detecting and monitoring, sea ice monitoring, fishery resources assessment at coastal zone and ocean, marine water quality assessment, sea surface temperature monitoring and forecasting, ocean primary productivity and carbon cycle research, and the development in the ocean dynamic environment parameter application technology before launch of HY-2. The achievements we have made in the ocean observation and monitoring during the past 3 years indicate that, the development of the ocean satellite series and the application of the ocean satellite can greatly promote the development of China's three-dimensional marine observation system and earth-observation system from space, accordingly we can improve the ability of acquiring the marine environmental parameter to sustain the marine economy development and the sea defense construction.      

Development and research program for a soil-based bioregenerative agriculture system to feed a four person crew at a Mars base.

For humans to survive during long-term missions on the Martian surface, bioregenerative life support systems including food production will decrease requirements for launch of Earth supplies, and increase mission safety. It is proposed that the development of "modular biospheres"--closed system units that can be air-locked together and which contain soil-based bioregenerative agriculture, horticulture, with a wetland wastewater treatment system is an approach for Mars habitation scenarios. Based on previous work done in long-term life support at Biosphere 2 and other closed ecological systems, this consortium proposes a research and development program called Mars On Earth(TM) which will simulate a life support system designed for a four person crew. The structure will consist of 6 x 110 square meter modular agricultural units designed to produce a nutritionally adequate diet for 4 people, recycling all air, water and waste, while utilizing a soil created by the organic enrichment and modification of Mars simulant soils. Further research needs are discussed, such as determining optimal light levels for growth of the necessary range of crops, energy trade-offs for agriculture (e.g. light intensity vs. required area), capabilities of Martian soils and their need for enrichment and elimination of oxides, strategies for use of human waste products, and maintaining atmospheric balance between people, plants and soils.