太阳活动对电离层TEC变化影响分析ormalsize

为研究太阳活动对电离层TEC变化的影响,从整体到局部分析了2000—2016年的太阳黑子数、太阳射电流量F_10.7指数日均值与电离层TEC的关系,并重点分析了2017年9月6日太阳爆发X9.3级特大耀斑前后15天太阳活动与电离层TEC变化的相关性.结果表明:由2000—2016年的数据整体看来,太阳黑子数、太阳F_10.7指数、TEC两两之间具有很强的整体相关性,但局部相关性强弱不均;此次耀斑爆发前后太阳黑子数、太阳F_10.7指数和TEC具有很强的正相关特性,太阳活动对TEC的影响时延约为2天;太阳活动对全球电离层TEC的影响不同步,从高纬至低纬约有1天的延迟,且对低纬度的影响远大于中高纬度.太阳活动是影响电离层TEC变化的主要原因,但局部也可能存在其他重要影响因素.      

LSTM神经网络在太阳F10.7射电流量中期预报中的应用

F_10.7指数作为大气密度经验模型的重要输入参量，其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.研究发现，太阳活动表现出长时间尺度上平均11年和中短时间尺度平均27天的周期性变化特征.依据这一观测事实，基于长短期记忆单元（Long Short-term Memory，LSTM）递归神经网络方法进行F_10.7指数未来27天的中期预报.利用一个连续长时段F_10.7数据作为训练数据，构建LSTM神经网络训练和预测模型，分别预测太阳活动高低年未来27天的F_10.7指数.结果表明，太阳活动高年的第27天F_10.7指数预报平均相对误差最优可达10%以内，低年最优可达2%以内.      

基于活动区面积统计的F10.7指数预报方法

太阳10.7cm射电流量（F_10.7）是反映太阳整体活动的重要指标,其主要源头是日面活动区.F_10.7指数与日面活动区具有显著的相关性,且不同面积的活动区与F_10.7并不遵循相同的线性关系.为进一步提高F_10.7预报的准确性,利用日面活动区面积与F_10.7的相关性,依据面积大小分类,提出F_10.7的预报公式并进行验证.采用2008-2018年SWPC （Space Weather Prediction Center）公布的活动区面积数据和CSWFC （Canadan Space Weather Forecast Center）公布的F_10.7实测数据计算预报公式系数,利用高年（2003年）和低年（1997年）的F_10.7预报验证其结果.研究结果表明,预报结果与实测值的相关系数分别为0.9318和0.9295,二者皆优于SWPC同时期的预报结果（相关系数分别为0.9186和0.8771）.本研究首次基于活动区的变化预测了F_10.7,提高了F_10.7预测的准确性.      

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

基于COSMIC掩星精密定轨数据的等离子体层电子含量研究

等离子体层是日地环境重要的组成部分.本文利用COSMIC掩星精密定轨数据经处理后得到的podTec文件获取等离子体层电子含量（PEC）对等离子体层进行研究.将podTec数据进行处理后获得的PEC（pod-PEC）和IRI-Plas经验模型提供的PEC （IRI-PEC）进行对比，发现pod-PEC与IRI-PEC符合得较好.在低（0°—20°）、中（20°—50°）、高（50°—90°）修正地磁纬度带下，分析了COSMIC在太阳活动极大年（2014年）3，6，9和12月的pod-PEC，得到如下结论:PEC随着纬度升高而逐渐减少，且3，9月PEC在中低纬关于磁赤道的南北对称性较好，6月北半球各纬度带的PEC明显高于南半球同一纬度带的值，而12月情况则完全相反，南半球中纬的PEC甚至会等于北半球低纬的PEC值；PEC在白天高而晚上低，高纬地区的PEC昼夜变化不明显；PEC具有明显的季节性.对于北半球，一年中PEC最大值出现在春季，冬秋季次之，夏季最低，具有明显的年度异常现象.      

第23太阳活动周热层大气密度对太阳辐射指数F10.7响应的模拟研究

利用NCAR-TIEGCM计算了第23太阳活动周期间（1996—2008年）400km高度上的大气密度，并统计分析大气密度对太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的响应.结果表明，在第23太阳活动周内，大气密度的变化趋势与太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的变化趋势基本一致，但是大气密度在不同年份、不同月份对太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的响应存在差异.第23太阳活动周内太阳辐射极大值和极小值之比大于4，而大气密度的极大值与极小值之比则大于10.太阳辐射低年的年内大气密度变化不到2倍，而太阳辐射高年的年内大气密度变化可达2倍甚至3倍.大气密度与FF_10.7指数在北半球高纬的相关系数比南半球高纬的相关系数大.在低纬地区，太阳辐射高年大气密度与FF_10.7指数的相关系数比低年的大.不同纬度上，大气密度与太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的27天变化值之间的相关系数都大于其与81天变化值之间的相关系数.      

2007-2009谷年期间高热层大气密度的变化

在第23至第24太阳活动周的峰年之间,太阳活动谷年具有持续时间长,极低F_10.7太阳辐射通量（低至65）和超长期的零太阳黑子数记录等特点,因此是观测和研究在这种特殊背景下热层大气变化的极好机会.尤其是能充分理解和掌握在宁静环境下热层大气密度对弱太阳活动和小地磁扰动的响应特性.本文利用高度650 km以上星载大气密度探测器2007—2009年的连续探测数据进行分析,结果表明,在太阳辐射通量F_10.7极低值期间,较高热层大气密度对F_10.7的起伏具有更显著的响应变化.当F_10.7由70降至65时,日均大气密度会有4～5倍的显著降变,远大于通常大气模式中的降变值.同样在F_10.7极低值期间,较高热层大气密度对小地磁扰动也具有显著的响应增变,当日K_p指数之和由23增至30时,较高热层大气密度则会有80%～160%的强增变.     

第23太阳活动周太阳极紫外辐射与磁暴相关性分析

统计第23个太阳活动周内中等及以上强度（Dst_min<-50nT）的磁暴事件，线性拟合分析磁暴主相DDst_min和达到DDst_min前一个表征太阳极紫外辐射强度的F_10.7之间的相关性.结果表明:随着太阳极紫外辐射增强，DDst_min<-50nT的磁暴出现的总数增多，在弱、中等和强太阳极紫外辐射条件下，其数量分别为56，84和85；随着太阳极紫外辐射增强，强磁暴（-200nT ≤ Dst_min<-100nT）和大磁暴（Dst_min<-200nT）发生的数量和相对发生率呈增长趋势，尤其是大磁暴数目（1，4，12）和相对发生率（1.79%，4.76%，14.12%）明显呈增长趋势；大磁暴（|Dst_min|）与太阳极紫外辐射（F_10.7）之间存在中度正相关关系，其相关系数为0.532，并且主要体现在大磁暴（|Dst_min|）与强太阳极紫外辐射（F_10.7）之间的中度正相关性，其相关系数为0.582.大磁暴与强太阳极紫外辐射之间的相关性可为空间天气预报提供参考依据.      

Polar卫星在低高度时表面正高电位的统计研究

基于Polar卫星1996-2008年的表面电压数据，研究了卫星在低轨区域出现正高电位（异常事件）与太阳活动的关系及其发生位置的磁地方时（MLT）分布.研究表明:太阳辐射与异常事件发生次数呈正相关，太阳活动越活跃，异常事件出现次数越多，但不会影响航天器表面电位；异常事件发生占比呈现明显季节性变化，在太阳活动高年，冬季和夏季次数较多，春季和秋季次数较少，在太阳活动低年，每月次数均维持在较低水平，而一个月内异常事件次数没有明显规律；在分布上南北半球表现出相似性，异常事件均不会发生在地磁纬度50°-60°区域，极区和昏侧发生次数较多，而不同的是异常事件在南半球发生得更多更集中；虽然太阳活动与航天器在低高度时表面出现正高电位的次数呈正相关，但即使在太阳活动峰年，航天器异常事件发生率也不超过10%.      

夜间135.6 nm气辉反演的电离层f0F2与测高仪观测比较研究

在夜间电离层，气辉135.6 nm谱线主要由F层的O⁺和电子的辐射复合过程以及O⁺和O^–的中性复合过程激发，该谱线强度和电离层峰值电子密度Nm F₂存在很强的相关性。利用夜气辉135.6 nm辐射强度与F₂层峰值电子密度Nm F₂的平方成正比的物理模型，建立了在不同经纬度、地方时、季节和太阳活动下均适用的反演算法。通过DMSP卫星上搭载的紫外光谱成像仪(SSUSI)实际观测的135.6 nm气辉辐射强度来反演相应时空的电离层F₂层临界频率f₀F₂，并将其与地基测高仪探测结果做了综合对比。结果表明，在太阳活动高年(2013年)，相对误差小于等于20%的数据占比93.0%，平均相对误差约为7.08%；在太阳活动低年(2017年)，相对误差小于等于20%的数据占比80.8%，平均相对误差约为12.64%。最后，对该算法在太阳活动高低年的反演精度差异进行了分析。     

Neutral upper atmospheres of Venus and Mars

Numerous measurements of the neutral upper atmosphere above 100 km have been made from spacecraft over Venus and over Mars. The Venus exospheric temperatures are unexpectedly low (less than 300°K near noon and less than 130°K near midnight). These very low temperatures may be partially caused by collisional excitation of CO₂ vibrational states by atomic oxygen and partially by eddy cooling. The Venus atmosphere is unexpectedly insensitive to solar EUV variability. On the other hand, the Martian dayside exospheric temperature varies from 150°K to 400°K over the 11-year solar cycle, where CO₂ 15-μm cooling may be less effective because of lower atomic oxygen mixing ratios. On Venus, temperature increases with altitude on the dayside (thermosphere), but decreases with altitude from 100 to 150 km on the nightside (cryosphere). However, dayside Martian temperatures near solar minimum for maximum planet-sun distance and low solar activity are essentially isothermal from 40 km to 200 km. During high solar activity, the thermospheric temperatures of Mars sharply increase. The Venus neutral upper atmosphere contains CO₂, O, CO, C, N₂, N, He, H, D and hot nonthermal H, O, C, and N, while the dayside Mars neutral upper atmosphere contains CO₂, O, O₂, CO, C, N₂, He, H, and Ar. There is evidence on Venus for inhibited day-to-night transport as well as superrotation of the upper atmosphere. Both atmospheres have substantial wave activity. Various theoretical models used to interpret the planetary atmospheric data are discussed.     

Intermittence of the short-term periodicities of the flare index

Intermittence of the short-term periodicities (25–35 days) of the flare index are investigated using the wavelet transform method for the full-disc and for the northern and the southern hemispheres of the Sun separately over the epoch since 1966 until 2002. The wavelet transform results show that occurence of periodicities of flare index power is highly intermittent in time. The period-averaged wavelet power of the flare index presents this fact very clearly displaying independence of flaring activity on the solar hemispheres in several time intervals over almost four solar cycles under study. Moreover correlations of the period-averaged wavelet power of the flare index for the separate hemispheres and for the full-disc reveal significantly stronger relation between the full-disc and the northern hemisphere than between the full-disc and the southern hemisphere while no significant correlations was found between the hemispheres one another.     

On the performance of IRI-2016 to predict the North-South asymmetry of the equatorial ionization anomaly around 73°E longitude

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in both northern and southern Equatorial anomaly regions are examined by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) based TEC measurements around 73°E Longitude in the Asian sector. The TEC contour charts obtained at SURAT (21.16°N; 72.78°E; 12.9°N Geomagnetic Lat.) and DGAR (7.27°S; 72.37°E; 15.3°S Geomagnetic Lat.) over 73°E longitude during a very low solar activity phase (2009) and a moderate solar activity (2012) phase are used in this study. The results show the existence of hemispheric asymmetry and the effects of solar activity on the EIA crest in occurrence time, location and strength. The results are also compared with the TEC derived by IRI-2016 Model and it is found that the North-South asymmetry at the EIA region is clearly depicted by IRI-2016 with some discrepancies (up to 20% in the northern hemisphere at SURAT and up to 40% in the southern hemisphere at DGAR station for June Solstice and up to 10% both for SURAT and DGAR for December Solstice). This discrepancy in the IRI-2016 model is found larger during the year 2012 than that during the solar minimum year 2009 at both the hemispheres. Further, an asymmetry index, (A_i) is determined to illustrate the North-South asymmetry observed in TEC at EIA crest. The seasonal, annual and solar flux dependence of this index are investigated during both solstices and compared with the TEC derived by IRI.     

Observation of a 27-day solar signature in noctilucent cloud altitude

Previous studies have identified solar 27-day signatures in several parameters in the Mesosphere/Lower thermosphere region, including temperature and Noctilucent cloud (NLC) occurrence frequency. In this study we report on a solar 27-day signature in NLC altitude with peak-to-peak variations of about 400?m. We use SCIAMACHY limb-scatter observations from 2002 to 2012 to detect NLCs. The superposed epoch analysis method is applied to extract solar 27-day signatures. A 27-day signature in NLC altitude can be identified in both hemispheres in the SCIAMACHY dataset, but the signature is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere. The solar signature in NLC altitude is found to be in phase with solar activity and temperature for latitudes $?70°$N. We provide a qualitative explanation for the positive correlation between solar activity and NLC altitude based on published model simulations.     

On the possible detection of solid O2 and O3 interstellar grains with ISO

In various models of interstellar grain chemistry, solid O₂ is formed by accretion as well as by surface reactions on grains. In dense molecular cloud models, at a later stage of the evolution, the O₂ molecule may become a substantial grain mantle constituent. Since IR dipole vibrational transitions for the homonuclear diatomic molecule O₂ are forbidden, the abundance of this potentially important grain mantle component can not be determined. However, embedded in a dirty ice matrix, the fundamental vibration of O₂ at 1550 cm⁻¹ becomes observable at 10 K, due to interactions with surrounding molecules, which break the symmetry of molecular oxygen. This process might be applicable for the dust mantle environment of interstellar grains. We have studied the role of solid O₂ and O₃ in astrophysically relevant ice mixtures and discuss the possible detection of solid O₂ and its major photolysis product O₃ in interstellar grains, in dense molecular clouds. Both molecules represent a specific target to be observed by the ISO satellite in the near future.     

太阳高能粒子观测特征经向分布统计

基于多卫星联合观测数据，筛选了2006年12月至2017年10月期间122个太阳高能粒子（SEP）事件及其伴随的日冕物质抛射（CME），分析了SEP事件属性随相对经度的变化、与CME属性之间相关性的经向分布以及与Fe/O比值的关联.研究结果显示:低Fe/O类事件的峰值通量I_p通常更高，伴随CME更大，但通量上升速度较慢，且其D_u（持续时间）和I_p与CME速度呈现更强的相关性；SEP特征时间T_O（CME爆发至SEP事件爆发）与T_R（SEP事件爆发至半峰值）随相对经度增加而增大，D_u与I_p随相对经度增加而减小，通量上升斜率K在±90°范围内自东向西递减；SEP事件属性与伴随CME属性的相关性随相对经度的改变有明显变化，在磁连接好的位置，T_O与CME速度等属性呈现负相关，T_R与CME速度等属性呈现正相关，D_u，I_p与CME速度之间的相关性更强.研究结果进一步表明，SEP事件观测属性既与CME参数相关，同时又具有很强的经度依赖性，在磁连接越好的位置卫星观测到的SEP事件强度越高，SEP观测参数受CME的影响越大，这对大型SEP事件的预报很有意义.此外，高Fe/O类SEP事件与CME相关性的减弱暗示了耀斑加速、种子粒子源等因素的影响.      

Proposal for a reference model of the middle atmosphere of the southern hemisphere

Available rocketsonde information has been used to compile tables of monthly mean temperature, pressure, density and zonal wind for the middle atmosphere of the southern hemisphere with the purpose of revising similar tables presented to COSPAR earlier. The altitude range is 25 to 80 km in steps of 5 km. The latitude range is 0° to 70°S with a 10° step. The compatability of different sets of temperature measurements is discussed. Mean values of temperature, pressure and zonal wind obtained for the southern hemisphere are compared with northern hemisphere model values. Large differences between the hemispheres (up to 20°C in temperature, 20–30% in pressure, 30–50 m/s in wind) imply that reference atmospheres such as CIRA should be complemented by southern hemisphere climatology.     

Variations in statistical parameters of the NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry with latitude and solar activity near noon

Hourly values of the F2-layer peak density, NmF2, measured by 95 ionosondes near noon from 1957 to 2011 at low and middle geomagnetic latitudes of the northern and southern geographic hemispheres are used in a statistical study of the NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry. The ratios, R, of NmF2 measured during 61 days around the March equinox to NmF2 measured during 61 days around the September equinox at the same UT near noon during geomagnetically quiet daytime conditions for approximately the same solar activity conditions over the same ionosonde are analyzed. The conditional probability of the occurrence of R in an interval of R, the most probable value of R, and the mean expected value of R are calculated for the first time for the low, moderate, and high solar activity levels to study variations in these statistical parameters with latitude and solar activity. These statistical parameters are averaged over 5° geomagnetic latitude interval in the northern and southern geographic hemispheres to calculate and to study for the first time trends in latitude and solar activity of these averaged NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry statistical characteristics.