Solar Irradiance Variability Since 1978

Since November 1978 a set of total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements from space is available, yielding a time series of more than 25 years. Presently, there are three TSI composites available, called PMOD, ACRIM and IRMB, which are all constructed from the same original data, but use different procedures to correct for sensitivity changes. The PMOD composite is the only one which also corrects the early HF data for degradation. The results from the detailed analysis of the VIRGO radiometry allow a good understanding of the effects influencing the long-term behaviour of classical radiometers in space. Thus, a re-analysis of the behaviour of HF/NIMBUS-7 and ACRIM-I/SMM was indicated. For the former the situation is complicated by the fact that there are no in-flight means to determine changes due to exposure to solar radiation by comparison with a less exposed radiometer on the same spacecraft. The geometry and optical property of the cavity of HF is, however, very similar to the PMO6-type radiometers, so the behaviour of the PMO6V radiometers on VIRGO can be used as a model. ACRIM-I had to be revised mainly due to a henceforth undetected early increase and a more detailed analysis of its degradation. The results are not only important for solar radiometry from space, but they also provide a more reliable TSI during cycle 21. The differences between the revised PMOD composite and the ACRIM and IRMB are discussed by comparison with a TSI reconstruction from Kitt-Peak magnetograms. As the PMOD composite is the only one which has reliable data for cycle 21, the behaviour of the three solar cycles can now be compared and the similarities and differences discussed.     

Total Solar Irradiance: What Have We Learned from the Last Three Cycles and the Recent Minimum?

The record of total solar irradiance (TSI) during the past 35 years shows similarities of the three solar cycles, but also important differences. During the recent minimum with an unusually long periods with no sunspots, TSI was also extremely low, namely 25% of a typical cycle amplitude lower than in 1996. Together with the values during the previous minima this points to a long-term change related to the strength of solar activity. On the other hand, activity indices as the 10.7?cm radio flux (F10.7), the CaII and MgII indices and also the Ly-α irradiance, show a much smaller decrease. This means that proxy models for TSI based on the photometric sunspot index (PSI), and on e.g. MgII index to represent faculae and network have to be complemented by a further component for the long-term change. TSI values at minima are correlated with the simultaneous values of the open magnetic field of the Sun at 1 AU and thus, these values may be used as a surrogate for the long-term change component. Such a 4-component model explains almost 85% of the variance of TSI over the three solar cycles available. This result supports also the idea that the long-term change of TSI is not due to manifestations of surface magnetism as the solar cycle modulation, but due to a change of the global temperature of Sun modulated by the strength of activity—being lower during low activity. To explain the difference between the minima in 1996 and 2008 we need a change of only 0.25?K.     

Modelling solar irradiance variations: Comparison with observations,including line-ratio variations

Solar irradiance variations show a strong temporal and spectral dependence. The progression of the Sun through its activity cycle as well as solar rotation are mirrored in the irradiance variations. The spectral dependence is such that the variations are several magnitudes larger in the EUV than in the visible or infrared.We present a simple 3-component model that is based on the assumption that changes in the solar flux are exclusively due to changes in spot and facular coverage. We compare our model to observations of the spectral solar irradiance variations.Despite its simplicity, we find that the agreement between our model and the observations is surprisingly good. We also explore the reliability and the limitations of our approach by comparing observations of the solar facular contrast and of the changes in spectral line depths with our calculations.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

The Middle Atmospheric Ozone Response to the 11-Year Solar Cycle

Because of its chemical and radiative properties, atmospheric ozone constitutes a key element of the Earth’s climate system. Absorption of sunlight by ozone in the ultraviolet wavelength range is responsible for stratospheric heating, and determines the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere. Changes in middle atmospheric ozone concentrations result in an altered radiative input to the troposphere and to the Earth’s surface, with implications on the energy balance and the chemical composition of the lower atmosphere. Although a wide range of ground- and satellite-based measurements of its integrated content and of its vertical distribution have been performed since several decades, a number of uncertainties still remain as to the response of middle atmospheric ozone to changes in solar irradiance over decadal time scales. This paper presents an overview of achieved findings, including a discussion of commonly applied data analysis methods and of their implication for the obtained results. We suggest that because it does not imply least-squares fitting of prescribed periodic or proxy data functions into the considered times series, time-domain analysis provides a more reliable method than multiple regression analysis for extracting decadal-scale signals from observational ozone datasets. Applied to decadal ground-based observations, time-domain analysis indicates an average middle atmospheric ozone increase of the order of 2% from solar minimum to solar maximum, which is in reasonable agreement with model results.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Surface-Exosphere-Magnetosphere System Of Mercury

Mercury is a poorly known planet, since the only space-based information comes from the three fly-bys performed in 1974 by the Mariner 10 spacecraft. Ground-based observations also provided some interesting results, but they are particularly difficult to obtain due to the planet’s proximity to the Sun. Nevertheless, the fact that the planet’s orbit is so close to the Sun makes Mercury a particularly interesting subject for extreme environmental conditions. Among a number of crucial scientific topics to be addressed, Mercury’s exosphere, its interaction with the solar wind and its origin from the surface of the planet, can provide important clues about planetary evolution. In fact, the Hermean exosphere is continuously eroded and refilled by these interactions, so that it would be more proper to consider the Hermean environment as a single, unified system – surface-exosphere-magnetosphere. These three parts are indeed strongly linked to each other. In recent years, the two missions scheduled to explore the iron planet, the NASA MESSENGER mission (launched in March 2004) and the ESA cornerstone mission (jointly with JAXA) BepiColombo (to be launched in 2012), have stimulated new interest in the many unresolved mysteries related to it. New ground-based observations, made possible by new technologies, have been obtained, and new simulation studies have been performed. In this paper some old as well as the very latest observations and studies related to the surface-exosphere-magnetosphere system are reviewed, outlining the investigations achievable by the planned space-based observations. This review intends to support the studies, in preparation of future data, and the definition of specific instrumentation.     

Reconstruction of Past Solar Irradiance

Accurate measurements of solar irradiance started in 1978, but a much longer time series is needed in order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate. In order to reconstruct the irradiance prior to 1978 we require both an understanding of the underlying causes of solar irradiance variability as well as data describing the state of the Sun (in particular its magnetic field) at the relevant epochs.Evidence is accumulating that on the time-scale of the solar cycle or less, variations in solar irradiance are produced mainly by changes in the amount and distribution of magnetic flux on the solar surface. The main solar features contributing to a darkening of the Sun are sunspots, while active-region faculae and the network lead to a brightening. There is also increasing evidence for secular changes of the solar magnetic field and the associated of solar brightness variability. In part the behavior of sun-like stars is used as a guide of such secular changes.Under the assumption that solar irradiance variations are due to solar surface magnetism on all relevant time scales it is possible to reconstruct the irradiance with some reliability from today to around 1874, and with lower accuracy back to the Maunder minimum. One major problem is the decreasing amount and accuracy of the relevant data with age. In this review the various reconstructions of past solar irradiance are presented and the assumptions underlying them are scrutinized.     

Solar Variability and the Earth's Climate: Introduction and Overview

Numerous attempts have been made over the years to link various aspects of solar variability to changes in the Earth's climate. There has been growing interest in this possible connection in recent years, spurred largely by the need to understand the natural causes of climate change, against which the expected global warming due to man's activities will have to be detected. The time scale of concern here is that of decades to centuries, and excludes the longer millennial scale in which orbital variations play a dominant role. The field has long been plagued by the lack of an acceptable physical mechanism by which solar variability can affect climate, but the discovery of variability in the Sun's total irradiance (the solar ``constant' of meteorology) by spacecraft instruments has pointed to a direct mechanism. Other less direct mechanisms that have been suggested involve variations in the Sun's ultraviolet flux and in the plasma outflow of the solar wind. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the current state of the field, emphasizing the proposed mechanisms as an introduction to the more detailed papers that follow. The particular case of sea-surface temperature data will be used as an illustration.     

Modelling Short-Term Spectral Irradiance Variations

On time-scales of the solar rotation most of the solar irradiance variations are caused by the changing distribution of solar surface magnetic features. We model these short-term irradiance variations using calculations of sunspot and facular contrasts as a function of wavelength and limb angle on the Sun. The position of active regions on the solar disc is derived from the MDI magnetograms. The reconstructed irradiance variations are compared with total and spectral irradiance measurements obtained by the VIRGO experiment on SOHO.     

Planetary Magnetic Fields and Solar Forcing: Implications for Atmospheric Evolution

The solar wind and the solar XUV/EUV radiation constitute a permanent forcing of the upper atmosphere of the planets in our solar system, thereby affecting the habitability and chances for life to emerge on a planet. The forcing is essentially inversely proportional to the square of the distance to the Sun and, therefore, is most important for the innermost planets in our solar system—the Earth-like planets. The effect of these two forcing terms is to ionize, heat, chemically modify, and slowly erode the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of a planet. The closer to the Sun, the more efficient are these process. Atmospheric erosion is due to thermal and non-thermal escape. Gravity constitutes the major protection mechanism for thermal escape, while the non-thermal escape caused by the ionizing X-rays and EUV radiation and the solar wind require other means of protection. Ionospheric plasma energization and ion pickup represent two categories of non-thermal escape processes that may bring matter up to high velocities, well beyond escape velocity. These energization processes have now been studied by a number of plasma instruments orbiting Earth, Mars, and Venus for decades. Plasma measurement results therefore constitute the most useful empirical data basis for the subject under discussion. This does not imply that ionospheric plasma energization and ion pickup are the main processes for the atmospheric escape, but they remain processes that can be most easily tested against empirical data. Shielding the upper atmosphere of a planet against solar XUV, EUV, and solar wind forcing requires strong gravity and a strong intrinsic dipole magnetic field. For instance, the strong dipole magnetic field of the Earth provides a “magnetic umbrella”, fending of the solar wind at a distance of 10 Earth radii. Conversely, the lack of a strong intrinsic magnetic field at Mars and Venus means that the solar wind has more direct access to their topside atmosphere, the reason that Mars and Venus, planets lacking strong intrinsic magnetic fields, have so much less water than the Earth? Climatologic and atmospheric loss process over evolutionary timescales of planetary atmospheres can only be understood if one considers the fact that the radiation and plasma environment of the Sun has changed substantially with time. Standard stellar evolutionary models indicate that the Sun after its arrival at the Zero-Age Main Sequence (ZAMS) 4.5 Gyr ago had a total luminosity of ≈70% of the present Sun. This should have led to a much cooler Earth in the past, while geological and fossil evidence indicate otherwise. In addition, observations by various satellites and studies of solar proxies (Sun-like stars with different age) indicate that the young Sun was rotating more than 10 times its present rate and had correspondingly strong dynamo-driven high-energy emissions which resulted in strong X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (XUV) emissions, up to several 100 times stronger than the present Sun. Further, evidence of a much denser early solar wind and the mass loss rate of the young Sun can be determined from collision of ionized stellar winds of the solar proxies, with the partially ionized gas in the interstellar medium. Empirical correlations of stellar mass loss rates with X-ray surface flux values allows one to estimate the solar wind mass flux at earlier times, when the solar wind may have been more than 1000 times more massive. The main conclusions drawn on basis of the Sun-in-time-, and a time-dependent model of plasma energization/escape is that:

1. Solar forcing is effective in removing volatiles, primarily water, from planets,
2. planets orbiting close to the early Sun were subject to a heavy loss of water, the effect being most profound for Venus and Mars, and
3. a persistent planetary magnetic field, like the Earth’s dipole field, provides a shield against solar wind scavenging.

     

Heliospheric Physics: Linking the Sun to the Magnetosphere

Research into the heliospheric structure and its relation to the solar boundary is at an impasse. After successful predictions by Parker about the zeroth-order behavior of the heliospheric magnetic field and the solar wind, the heliospheric community struggles to make substantive progress toward a predictive model describing the connections between the Sun and its space environment, between the closed corona and the open corona extending to the planets. This is caused by our lack of understanding of the basic processes heating the corona and transporting open magnetic field. We detail the models used to describe this connectivity, from potential field source surface models to full MHD techniques. We discuss the current limitations of both approaches. Finally, we address a recent attempt to advance our understanding beyond these limitations. At this point in time the proposed theory remains controversial in the community, but it addresses important shortcomings of current approaches outlined above.     

Interstellar grains in the solar system: Requirements for an analysis

We discuss present knowledge about interstellar dust grains in the heliosphere in order to give goals for future investigations. As far as the identification of the interstellar flux from brightness observations is concerned we calculate the influence of interstellar dust entering the solar system on the Zodiacal light and Zodiacal emission brightness. In case of the Zodiacal light produced by the scattering of solar radiation, the brightness from interstellar dust within the solar system is not detectable within the limits of present observations. In the case of the thermal emission a distinction of the brightness from the interstellar dust component may be possible. This would be especially interesting for an analysis of the overall spatial distribution of the interstellar flux in the solar system. As far as the identification of the interstellar flux from impact experiments is concerned, parameters like the impact direction are essential. Since the interstellar dust flux is modified in the outer solar system already, it is helpful to probe its variation with increasing distance from the Sun in interstellar upstream direction.     

Mars Global Surveyor Measurements of the Martian Solar Wind Interaction

The solar wind at Mars interacts with the extended atmosphere and small-scale crustal magnetic fields. This interaction shares elements with a variety of solar system bodies, and has direct bearing on studies of the long-term evolution of the Martian atmosphere, the structure of the upper atmosphere, and fundamental plasma processes. The magnetometer (MAG) and electron reflectometer (ER) on Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) continue to make many contributions toward understanding the plasma environment, thanks in large part to a spacecraft orbit that had low periapsis, had good coverage of the interaction region, and has been long-lived in its mapping orbit. The crustal magnetic fields discovered using MGS data perturb plasma boundaries on timescales associated with Mars' rotation and enable a complex magnetic field topology near the planet. Every portion of the plasma environment has been sampled by MGS, confirming previous measurements and making new discoveries in each region. The entire system is highly variable, and responds to changes in solar EUV flux, upstream pressure, IMF direction, and the orientation of Mars with respect to the Sun and solar wind flow. New insights from MGS should come from future analysis of new and existing data, as well as multi-spacecraft observations.     

ICMEs in the Inner Heliosphere: Origin, Evolution and Propagation Effects

This report assesses the current status of research relating the origin at the Sun, the evolution through the inner heliosphere and the effects on the inner heliosphere of the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The signatures of ICMEs measured by in-situ spacecraft are determined both by the physical processes associated with their origin in the low corona, as observed by space-borne coronagraphs, and by the physical processes occurring as the ICMEs propagate out through the inner heliosphere, interacting with the ambient solar wind. The solar and in-situ observations are discussed as are efforts to model the evolution of ICMEs from the Sun out to 1 AU.     

Solar Wind Sources and Their Variations Over the Solar Cycle

In this paper I will briefly summarize the present status of our knowledge on the four different sorts of solar wind, their sources and their short- and long-term variations. First: the fast solar wind in high-speed streams that emerges from coronal hole regions. Second: the slow solar wind emerging from the non-active Sun near the global heliospheric current sheet above helmet streamers and underlying active regions. Third: the slow solar wind filling most of the heliosphere during high solar activity, emerging above active regions in a highly turbulent state, and fourth: the plasma expelled from the Sun during coronal mass ejections. The coronal sources of these different flows vary dramatically with the solar activity cycle.     

O5+ in High Speed Solar Wind Streams: SWICS/Ulysses Results

Recent observations with UVCS on SOHO of high outflow velocities of O⁵⁺ at low coronal heights have spurred much discussion about the dynamics of solar wind acceleration. On the other hand, O⁶⁺ is the most abundant oxygen charge state in the solar wind, but is not observed by UVCS or by SUMER because this helium-like ion has no emission lines falling in the wave lengths observable by these instruments. Therefore, there is considerable interest in observing O⁵⁺ in situ in order to understand the relative importance of O⁵⁺ with respect to the much more abundant O⁶⁺. High speed streams are the prime candidates for the search for O⁵⁺ because all elements exhibit lower freezing-in temperatures in high speed streams than in the slow solar wind. The Ulysses spacecraft was exposed to long time periods of high speed streams during its passage over the polar regions of the Sun. The Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) on Ulysses is capable of resolving this rare oxygen charge state. We present the first measurement of O⁵⁺ in the solar wind and compare these data with those of the more abundant oxygen species O⁶⁺ and O⁷⁺. We find that our observations of the oxygen charge states can be fitted with a single coronal electron temperature in the range of 1.0 to 1.2 MK assuming collisional ionization/recombination equilibrium with an ambient Maxwellian electron gas. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Surface Magnetism and Irradiance on Time Scales from Days to the 11-Year Cycle

The uninterrupted measurement of the total solar irradiance during the last three solar cycles and an increasing amount of solar spectral irradiance measurements as well as solar imaging observations (magnetograms and photometric data) have stimulated the development of models attributing irradiance variations to solar surface magnetism. Here we review the current status of solar irradiance measurements and modelling efforts based on solar photospheric magnetic fields. Thereby we restrict ourselves to the study of solar variations from days to the solar cycle. Phenomenological models of the solar atmosphere in combination with imaging observations of solar electromagnetic radiation and measurements of the photospheric magnetic field have reached high enough quality to show that a large fraction (at least, about 80%) of the solar irradiance variability can be explained by the radiative effects of the magnetic activity present in the photosphere. Also, significant progress has been made with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of convection that allow us to relate the radiance of the photospheric magnetic structures to the observations.     

Using Precise Solar Limb Shape Measurements to Study the Solar Cycle

Despite 20 years of total solar irradiance measurements from space, the lack of high precision spatially resolved observations limits definitive answers to even simple questions like ``Are the solar irradiance changes caused solely by magnetic fields perturbing the radiative flux at the photosphere?" More subtle questions like how the aspheric structure of the sun changes with the magnetic cycle are only now beginning to be addressed with new tools like p-mode helioseismology. Solar 5-min oscillation studies have yielded precise information on the mean radial interior solar structure and some knowledge about the rotational and thermal solar asphericity. Unfortunately this progress has not been enough to generate a self-consistent theory for why the solar irradiance and luminosity vary with the magnetic cycle. We need sharper tools to describe and understand the sun's global aspheric response to its internal dynamo, and we need to be able to measure the solar cycle manifestation of the magnetic cycle on entropy transport from the interior to the photosphere in much the same way that we study the fundamentally more complex problem of magnetic flux transport from the solar interior. A space experiment called the Solar Physics Explorer for Radius, Irradiance and Shape (SPHERIS) and in particular its Astrometric and Photometric Telescope (APT) component will accomplish these goals.