美俄卫星碰撞事件验证及其对我国卫星的影响分析

北京时间2009年2月11日0时55分,美国铱星-33和俄罗斯宇宙-2251两颗卫星在太空相撞,在所在的高度产生了大量新增空间碎片,使得空间碎片环境更加严峻,低轨航天器运行遭受空间碎片撞击的风险大幅增加。文章通过碰撞前后轨道数据分析,确认并验证了此次碰撞事件;利用事前轨道数据进行碰撞预警分析,得出碰撞的相关的参数;通过分析此次事件产生的新增碎片的轨道数据,进一步验证确认碰撞事件;从空间碎片密度和通量角度分析其时当前空间碎片环境产生的影响;通过新增碎片寿命计算分析其对空间碎片环境的长期的影响;从碰撞概率出发分析对航天器运行安全的威胁。分析结果表明：我国低轨卫星在一定程度上增大了空间碎片碰撞风险,需要进行在轨空间碎片碰撞预警,以确保我国卫星的安全运行。     

地球静止轨道卫星碰撞碎片短期演化风险分析

地球静止轨道(GEO)卫星与空间碎片发生碰撞后短期内会出现无地面观测数据的情况。为解决该问题,筛选了所有运行或穿越GEO区域的空间目标,分析了数值法和解析法在进行接近分析时的优劣势,给出了基于弦截法的接近分析数值求解方法,运用SDP4模型进行轨道预报。运用质量守恒和动量守恒对NASA标准解体模型进行修正,生成空间碎片信息。针对短期演化风险,在无连锁碰撞研究需求时进行假设,进而简化碰撞概率计算方法。对GEO区域内碎片的碰撞和穿越GEO区域碎片的碰撞2类事件进行分析,在碰撞完全解体和非完全解体2种条件下,分析3 d内碰撞产生的碎片对GEO区域的威胁程度。仿真实验结果表明:在完全解体的情形下,新产生的空间碎片3 d内与原有空间目标会发生100多次小于20 km的接近,最近距离降低到214.4 m。在无地面对新生成空间碎片观测数据的条件下,该研究为航天器规避机动提供参考,为下一步的长期演化分析提供理论借鉴。     

一种应用于空间碎片演化模型的碰撞概率算法

针对碰撞概率算法Cube模型参数影响空间碎片演化模型的仿真结果问题进行了深入分析与研究，并将原Cube算法进行改进，由此提出I-Cube模型。经过多次蒙特卡洛仿真结果验证，I-Cube模型对演化过程中空间碎片碰撞概率的计算更为准确合理，空间碎片长期演化模型的结果不再依赖于自身碰撞概率算法的相关参数，提高了空间碎片长期演化模型的稳定性与可信度。     

美国DMSP-F13卫星解体事件对空间碎片环境影响分析

2015 年2 月3 日,美国DMSP-F13 卫星发生爆炸解体,产生了百余块编目空间碎片。该卫星解体碎片主要分布在轨道高度600～1200 km 范围内,其中近50%的编目碎片在轨寿命将超过20 年,会对未来空间碎片环境构成长期影响。结合我国空间碎片环境工程模型SDEEM 对DMSP-F13 解体事件的分析结果显示,此次解体事件造成邻近轨道区域内空间碎片空间密度增加,对该区域航天器安全运行产生影响。     

空间目标轨道信息软件平台的建设

空间目标轨道信息是空间态势感知的重要要素,是空间碰撞预警、空间碎片环境模型和许多空间应用的基础。因而,空间目标轨道确定成为空间态势感知的主要任务之一。文章介绍武汉大学测绘学院正在开发建设的空间目标轨道信息服务软件平台,该平台拥有的主要功能有:利用多源数据的卫星/空间碎片轨道确定(包括初轨确定)与预报、大气质量密度模型精化、空间碰撞预警和半解析法快速精密轨道传播等。文章还针对软件平台功能的研究进展进行了综述,介绍了软件平台发展规划。     

碰撞风险评估中的空间环境激励图方法

因航天器物理特征、空间环境扰动变化、预报技术和大气模型性能等既有不确定因素的存在，空间目标碰撞概率等与轨道预报相关的评估工作存在模糊度问题，无法准确描述碰撞风险水平。文章基于碰撞概率极值，简化气动力误差模型，量化计算轨道预报相关事务的边界；提出空间环境激励图和3σ区的概念，并给出具体实施方法以及空间碎片碰撞预警、空间物体陨落预报的计算示例。计算结果表明，该方法能较好应对轨道预报相关事务中的模糊度问题，可为相关航天工程实践和决策提供参考。     

地球静止轨道卫星撞击解体的数值模拟

分析了地球静止轨道（GE0）环内的物体现状,引入美国家航空航天局（NASA）的标准解体模型,给出了卫星撞击解体算法,编写了数值仿真软件,仿真研究了GEO卫星撞击解体形成碎片的特征及其轨道分布。结果表明：撞击会产生大量碎片,对空间环境造成长期的严重危害。研究结果对分析卫星撞击解体特性、保护空间环境有一定的参考价值。     

空间碎片环境的现状,未来及防护

在调研国外碎片研究活动基础上,分析了空间碎片的类型、增长及空间分布规律,根据气体动力学理论,估算了航天器与轨道碎片的碰撞几率和碰撞速度,介绍了NASA的“PIB”近地轨道空间碎片环境予示模型,关于空间碎片问题的对策,综述了国际上已采用的一些予防措施,清除空间碎片的各种技术方案正在深入研究之中,该文只作了一般概念性介绍。     

地球同步轨道卫星结构爆炸解体碎片的轨道仿真

为快速确定与预报卫星在轨爆炸解体产生的大量空间碎片的轨道,提出了一种基于ANSYS/AUTODYN、MATLAB、STK等多软件平台联合仿真分析卫星结构爆炸解体碎片运行轨道的方法。利用ANSYS/AUTODYN对典型薄壁圆柱模拟地球同步轨道卫星结构进行爆炸数值分析,得到碎片的数量、质量分布和速度特性信息。再利用MATLAB软件对卫星爆炸仿真得到的碎片参数进行处理,将处理后的数据导入到STK软件的通用摄动SGP4模型中,得出卫星爆炸碎片的早期轨道数据。最后对爆炸碎片的轨道分布、速度增量、轨道演化等进行分析。结果表明:该方法能满足大量爆炸碎片的轨道仿真要求,能有效提高碎片轨道信息转换效率,对目前难以跟踪的cm级以下碎片,也能提供相应的初始轨道数据,使用方便,通用性好。研究结果可为快速捕获卫星爆炸碎片,及时规避航天器碰撞风险提供参考。     

欧空局将研究空间碎片清除任务

欧空局正在其“清洁太空”计划下开展论证称为e．DeOrbit的空间碎片清除任务，目的是要减小航天业对地球和空间环境的影响。人类几十年的航天发射在地球周围留下了一圈太空垃圾。目前地球轨道上可跟踪到的比咖啡杯大的空间物体有超过1．7万件，存在着同工作中的航天器发生灾难性碰撞的危险。     

空间碎片减缓策略效果仿真

根据机构间空间碎片协调委员会(IADC)和欧空局(ESA)的空间碎片减缓要求,在建立航天发射、爆炸和碰撞模型,以及碎片演化机制的基础上,对常规发射(BAU)、禁止在轨爆炸(NO-EX)和全面减缓(MIT)三种空间碎片减缓策略条件下,对2000~2100年空间碎片环境进行了仿真计算。结果表明,禁止航天器在轨爆炸、对失效的卫星和火箭上面级实施离轨操作,以及在航天器的发射和运行中不产生或抛弃分离物等减缓措施是限制空间碎片数量增长的有效方法。     

Enhancement and Validation of the IDES Orbital Debris Environment Model

Orbital debris environment models are essential in predicting the characteristics of the entire debris environment, especially for altitude and size regimes where measurement data is sparse. Most models are also used to assess mission collision risk. The IDES (Integrated Debris Evolution Suite) simulation model has recently been upgraded by including a new sodium–potassium liquid coolant droplet source model and a new historical launch database. These and other features of IDES are described in detail. The accuracy of the IDES model is evaluated over a wide range of debris sizes by comparing model predictions to three major types of debris measurement data in low Earth orbit. For the large-size debris population, the model is compared with the spatial density distribution of the United States (US) Space Command Catalog. A radar simulation model is employed to predict the detection rates of mid-size debris in the field of view of the US Haystack radar. Finally, the small-size impact flux relative to a surface of the retrieved Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) spacecraft is predicted. At sub-millimetre sizes, the model currently under-predicts the debris environment encountered at low altitudes by approximately an order of magnitude. This is because other small-size debris sources, such as paint flakes have not yet been characterised. Due to the model enhancements, IDES exhibits good accuracy when predicting the debris environment at decimetre and centimetre sizes. Therefore, the validated initial conditions and the high fidelity future traffic model enables IDES to make long-term debris environment projections with more confidence.     

Conceptualizing an economically,legally, and politically viable active debris removal option

It has become increasingly clear in recent years that the issue of space debris, particularly in low-Earth orbit, can no longer be ignored or simply mitigated. Orbital debris currently threatens safe space flight for both satellites and humans aboard the International Space Station. Additionally, orbital debris might impact Earth upon re-entry, endangering human lives and damaging the environment with toxic materials. In summary, orbital debris seriously jeopardizes the future not only of human presence in space, but also of human safety on Earth. While international efforts to mitigate the current situation and limit the creation of new debris are useful, recent studies predicting debris evolution have indicated that these will not be enough to ensure humanity?s access to and use of the near-Earth environment in the long-term. Rather, active debris removal (ADR) must be pursued if we are to continue benefiting from and conducting space activities. While the concept of ADR is not new, it has not yet been implemented. This is not just because of the technical feasibility of such a scheme, but also because of the host of economic, legal/regulatory, and political issues associated with debris remediation. The costs of ADR are not insignificant and, in today?s restrictive fiscal climate, are unlikely/to be covered by any single actor. Similarly, ADR concepts bring up many unresolved questions about liability, the protection of proprietary information, safety, and standards. In addition, because of the dual use nature of ADR technologies, any venture will necessarily require political considerations. Despite the many unanswered questions surrounding ADR, it is an endeavor worth pursuing if we are to continue relying on space activities for a variety of critical daily needs and services. Moreover, we cannot ignore the environmental implications that an unsustainable use of space will imply for life on Earth in the long run. This paper aims to explore some of these challenges and propose an economically, politically, and legally viable ADR option. Much like waste management on Earth, cleaning up space junk will likely lie somewhere between a public good and a private sector service. An international, cooperative, public-private partnership concept can address many of these issues and be economically sustainable, while also driving the creation of a proper set of regulations, standards and best practices.     

天基照相跟踪空间碎片批处理轨道确定研究

随着国内外天基观测空间碎片研究的展开,文章提出了利用跟踪卫星的CCD(Charge
Coupled Device)相机对空间碎片进行轨道探测的方法,首先建立了CCD照相观测模型和基于 照相观测 的空间碎片批处理轨道确定模型。通过对CCD相机底片归算方法的分析可知,利用
CCD相机所获得的观测数据与跟踪卫星的姿态无关,且其精度只与测量和坐标转换计算的精 度有关,在测量和计算中可获得较高的精度。分别对分布密度较高的低轨道和地球同步 轨道区域的空间碎片进行了定轨分析。仿真结果表明,定轨时采用两个跟踪弧段的照相数据 定轨精度大大高于一个弧段照相数据的定轨精度;跟踪卫星距离空间碎片越近,定轨精度越 高;低轨道空间碎片的定轨精度高于地球同步轨道上的空间碎片定轨精度。
     

Continuum Model for Space Debris Evolution with Account of Collisions and Orbital Breakups

The paper discusses the mathematical modeling of long-term orbital debris evolution taking into account mutual collisions of space debris particles of different sizes. Investigations and long-term forecasts of orbital debris environment evolution in low Earth orbits are essential for future space mission hazard evaluation and for adopting rational space policies and mitigation measures. The paper introduces a new approach to space debris evolution mathematical modeling based on continuum mechanics incorporating partial differential equations. This is an alternative to the traditional approaches of celestial mechanics incorporating ordinary differential equations to model fragments evolution. The continuum approach to orbital debris evolution modeling has essential advantages for describing the evolution of a large number of particles, because it replaces the traditional tracking of space objects by modeling the evolution of their density of distribution.     

A model for the evolution of the on-orbit man-made debris environment

A model for the evolution of the low Earth orbit man-made debris population is presented and the results of several test cases discussed. Debris sources include normal operations in space, explosions occurring on spacecraft in orbit, and collisions between objects in orbit; the stochastic occurrence of these deposition events is modeled using Monte Carlo techniques. A technique for discriminating between objects populating long-life vs rapid-decay orbits is discussed and applied to the analysis of debris contributions from collisions of comparable sized objects. In varying degrees, each of the cases presented indicate there is cause for concern for spacecraft and space operations from the 1990s onward-man-made debris will play a role which may vary from presenting a considerable hazard to certain operations or certain spacecraft to effectively prohibiting the use of certain spaceccraft or space operations.     

低地轨道空间碎片环境建模与分析

根据“箱中粒子”（PIB）的模型和气体分子运动学理论，建立了估算低地轨道（LEO）上空间碎片总数的微分方程，参考国外文献提供的有关空间碎片统计数据和初始条件，求解方程，并分析了空间碎片环境的短期和长期变化趋势。     

低地球轨道航天器的轨道碎片环境

文章介绍了一种适用于低地球轨道航天器的轨道碎片环境模型。对建立这个模型的数据源及设计标准进行了详细的叙述。并评价这个数据模型对未来空间环境的预测和测量中的不确定性。     

A preliminary study of pulse-laser powered orbital launcher

An air-breathing pulse-laser powered orbital launcher has been proposed as an alternative to conventional chemical launch systems. The aim of the present study is to assess its feasibility through the estimation of its achievable payload mass per unit beam power and launch cost. A transfer trajectory from the ground to a geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) is proposed, and the launch trajectory to its geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) is computed using the realistic performance modeled in the pulsejet, ramjet, and rocket flight modes of the launcher. Results show that the launcher can transfer 0.084 kg of payload per 1 MW beam power to a geosynchronous earth orbit. The cost becomes a quarter of existing systems if one can divide a single launch into 24,000 multiple launches.