10Be in Ice Cores and 14C in Tree Rings: Separation of Production and Climate Effects

Cosmogenic radionuclides are more and more used in solar activity reconstructions. However, the cosmogenic radionuclide signal also contains a climate component. It is therefore crucial to eliminate the climate information to allow a better interpretation of the reconstructed solar activity indices. In this paper the method of principal components is applied to ¹⁰Be data from two ice cores from opposite hemispheres as well as to ¹⁴C data from tree rings. The analysis shows that these records are dominated by a common signal which explains about 80% of the variance on multi decadal to multi millennial time scales, reflecting their common production rate. The second and third components are significantly different for ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be. They are interpreted as system effects introduced by the transport of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C from the atmosphere where they are produced to the respective natural archives where they are stored. Principal component analysis improves significantly extraction of the production signal from the cosmogenic isotope data series, which is more appropriate for astrophysical and terrestrial studies.     

10Be Production in the Atmosphere by Galactic Cosmic Rays

Galactic cosmic ray nuclei and energetic protons produced in solar flares and accelerated by coronal mass ejections are the main sources of high-energy particles of extraterrestrial origin in near-Earth space and inside the Earth’s atmosphere. The intensity of galactic cosmic rays inside the heliosphere is strongly influenced by the modulation of the interstellar source particles on their way through interplanetary space. Among others, this modulation depends on the activity of the Sun, and the resulting intensity of the energetic particles in the atmosphere is an indicator of the solar activity. Therefore, rare isotopes found in historical archives and produced by spallation reactions of primary and secondary hadrons of cosmic origin in the atmosphere, so-called cosmogenic nuclides, can be used to reconstruct the solar activity in the past. The production rate of ¹⁰Be, one of the cosmogenic nuclides most adequate to study the solar activity, is presented showing its variations with geographic latitude and altitude and the dependence on different production cross-sections present in literature. In addition, estimates for altitude integrated production rates of ¹⁰Be at different locations since the early nineteen sixties are shown.     

Neutron Monitor Records in Broader Historical Context

Man-made neutron monitors have provided a continuous detailed record of the cosmic-ray flux over only about the last 5 decades. Fortunately, nature operates its own detectors and offers the opportunity to extend the cosmic-ray records over much longer time scales. Two different types of `natural detectors' can be distinguished. The first is based on long lived radionuclides that are produced by cosmic-ray interactions in the atmosphere and subsequently become stored in archives such as ice sheets or tree rings. The second type are rocks that are exposed to cosmic-rays at a certain time and from then on integrate the production of cosmogenic nuclides over the whole exposure time. The analysis of ¹⁰Be in polar ice cores and ¹⁴C in tree rings clearly reveals solar and geomagnetic modulation of the cosmic-ray flux on different time scales ranging from decades (11-year Schwabe cycle) to millennia. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

Cosmogenic Radionuclides as an Extension of the Neutron Monitor Era into the Past: Potential and Limitations

The cosmogenic radionuclides, ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C and others, provide a record of the paleo-cosmic radiation that extends >10,000 years into the past. They are the only quantitative means at our disposal to study the heliosphere prior to the commencement of routine sunspot observations in the 17th century. The cosmogenic radionuclides are primarily produced by secondary neutrons generated by the galactic cosmic radiation, and can be regarded, in a sense, as providing an extrapolation of the neutron monitor era into the past. However, their characteristics are quite different from the man-made neutron monitor in several important respects: (1) they are sensitive to somewhat lower cosmic ray energies; (2) their temporal resolution is ～1 to 2 years, being determined by the rapidity with which they are sequestered in ice, biological, or other archives; (3) the statistical precision for annual data is very poor (～19%); however it is quite adequate (～5% for 22-year averages) to study the large variations (±40%) that have occurred in the paleo-cosmic ray record in the past between grand solar minima and maxima. The data contains “noise” caused by local meteorological effects, and longer-term climate effects, and the use of principal component analysis to separate these “system” effects from production effects is outlined. The concentrations of ¹⁰Be decreased by a factor of two at the commencement of Holocene, the present-day “interglacial”, due to a 100% increase in the ice accumulation rates in polar regions. The use of the ¹⁰Be flux to study heliospheric properties during the last glacial is discussed briefly.     

Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Requirements for Future Observations

Since the publication of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere in 1998 there has been great progress in understanding how and why cosmic rays vary in space and time. This paper discusses measurements that are needed to continue advances in relating cosmic ray variations to changes in solar and interplanetary activity and variations in the local interstellar environment. Cosmic ray acceleration and transport is an important discipline in space physics and astrophysics, but it also plays a critical role in defining the radiation environment for humans and hardware in space, and is critical to efforts to unravel the history of solar activity. Cosmic rays are measured directly by balloon-borne and space instruments, and indirectly by ground-based neutron, muon and neutrino detectors, and by measurements of cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores, tree-rings, sediments, and meteorites. The topics covered here include: what we can learn from the deep 2008–2009 solar minimum, when cosmic rays reached the highest intensities of the space era; the implications of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C isotope archives for past and future solar activity; the effects of variations in the size of the heliosphere; opportunities provided by the Voyagers for discovering the origin of anomalous cosmic rays and measuring cosmic-ray spectra in interstellar space; and future space missions that can continue the exciting exploration of the heliosphere that has occurred over the past 50 years.     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

Coronal Heating and Solar Wind Acceleration: Future Work on Observations

The space-based observatories SOHO and TRACE have shown some very interesting results on the structure and dynamics of the Sun and its atmosphere, e.g., the extremely high ion temperatures or the enormous variability in the corona. But one question is still open to debate: how to use these data to distinguish between different types of physical heating processes, as, e.g., absorption of high-frequency Alfvén-waves or reconnection events? This paper will discuss some possibilities on how to tackle this type of question. These include observations of ion temperature anisotropies and electron temperatures in the corona as well as measurements of coronal magnetic fields. Emphasis will be put on simultaneous observations of the whole solar atmosphere from the photosphere into the solar wind and on solar-stellar connections. In the light of these ideas new proposed space missions as well as ground based efforts will be discussed.     

What do Cosmogenic Isotopes Tell us About Past Solar Forcing of Climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth's atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.     

Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate

In recent years the variability of the cosmic ray flux has become one of the main issues interpreting cosmogenic elements and especially their connection with climate. In this review, an interdisciplinary team of scientists brings together our knowledge of the evolution and modulation of the cosmic ray flux from its origin in the Milky Way, during its propagation through the heliosphere, up to its interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere, resulting, finally, in the production of cosmogenic isotopes in the Earth’ atmosphere. The interpretation of the cosmogenic isotopes and the cosmic ray – cloud connection are also intensively discussed. Finally, we discuss some open questions.     

HF-W Chronometry and Inner Solar System Accretion Rates

Models for the mechanisms of accretion of the terrestrial planets are re-examined using the experimental technique of high-precision isotope ratio mass spectrometry of tungsten (W). The decay of ¹⁸²Hf to ¹⁸²W (via ¹⁸²Ta) provides a new kind of radiometric chronometer of planet formation processes. Hafnium and W, the parent and daughter trace elements, are highly refractory; however, Hf is lithophile and strongly partitioned into the silicate portion of a planet, whereas W is moderately siderophile and preferentially partitioned into a coexisting metallic phase. More than 90% of terrestrial W has gone into the Earth's core during its formation. The residual silicate portion, the Earth's primitive mantle, has a Hf/W ratio in the range 10−40, an order of magnitude higher than chondritic (∼1.3). Tungsten isotopic data for the Earth and the Moon suggest that we can date a major event of planet formation: The Moon formed about 50 Myrs after the start of the solar system, providing strong support for the Giant Impact Theory of lunar origin. Recent simulations of this event imply that the Earth was probably only half formed at the time. From this we can deduce the planetary accretion rate. Tungsten isotope data for Mars provide evidence of a much shorter accretion interval, perhaps as little as 10 Myrs, but the rates for the Earth over the same time interval could have been comparable. The large W isotopic heterogeneities on Mars could only have been produced within the first 30 Myrs of the solar system. Large-scale mixing, e.g. from convective overturn, as is thought to drive the Earth's plates, must be absent from Mars. Limitations of the method such as 1) cosmogenic ¹⁸²Ta effects on lunar samples, 2) incomplete mixing of debris to cause W isotope heterogeneity on the Moon, and 3) initial ¹⁸²Hf/¹⁸⁰Hf heterogeneities of the early solar system are critically discussed. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Variability and Climate Impact on Terrestrial Planets

Some possible factors of climate changes and of long term climate evolution are discussed with regard of the three terrestrial planets, Earth, Venus and Mars. Two positive feedback mechanisms involving liquid water, i.e., the albedo mechanism and the greenhouse effect of water vapour, are described. These feedback mechanisms respond to small external forcings, such as resulting from solar or astronomical constants variability, which might thus result in large influences on climatic changes on Earth. On Venus, reactions of the atmosphere with surface minerals play an important role in the climate system, but the involved time scales are much larger. On Mars, climate is changing through variations of the polar axis inclination over time scales of ～10⁵–10⁶ years. Growing evidence also exists that a major climatic change happened on Mars some 3.5 to 3.8 Gigayears ago, leading to the disappearance of liquid water on the planet surface by eliminating most of the CO₂ atmosphere greenhouse power. This change might be due to a large surge of the solar wind, or to atmospheric erosion by large bodies impacts. Indeed, except for their thermospheric temperature response, there is currently little evidence for an effect of long-term solar variability on the climate of Venus and Mars. This fact is possibly due to the absence of liquid water on these terrestrial planets.     

Physical Causes of Solar Activity

The magnetic fields that dominate the structure of the Sun's atmosphere are controlled by processes in the solar interior, which cannot be directly observed. Magnetic activity is found in all stars with deep convective envelopes: young and rapidly rotating stars are very active but cyclic activity only appears in slow rotators. The Sun's 11-year activity cycle corresponds to a 22-year magnetic cycle, since the sunspot fields (which are antisymmetric about the equator) reverse at each minimum. The record of magnetic activity is aperiodic and is interrupted by episodes of reduced activity, such as the Maunder Minimum in the seventeenth century, when sunspots almost completely disappeared. The proxy record from cosmogenic isotopes shows that similar grand minima recur at intervals of around 200 yr. The Sun's large-scale field is generated by dynamo action rather than by an oscillator. Systematic magnetic cycles are apparently produced by a dynamo located in a region of weak convective overshoot at the base of the convection zone, where there are strong radial gradients in the angular velocity . The crucial parameter (the dynamo number) increases with increasing and kinematic (linear) theory shows that dynamo action can set in at an oscillatory (Hopf) bifurcation that is probably subcritical. Although it has been demonstrated that the whole process works in a self-consistent model, most calculations have relied on mean-field dynamo theory. This approach is physically plausible but can only be justified under conditions that do not apply in the Sun. Still, mean-field dynamos do reproduce the butterfly diagram and other key features of the solar cycle. An alternative approach is to study generic behaviour in low-order models, which exhibit two forms of modulation, associated with symmetry-breaking and with reduced activity. Comparison with observed behaviour suggests that modulation of the solar cycle is indeed chaotic, i.e. deterministically rather than stochastically driven.     

Time-Variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with two cloud transitions, within the past 10,000 years and a second one 20,000–30,000 years ago, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.     

The Seed Population for Energetic Particles Accelerated by CME-Driven Shocks

Understanding properties of solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with coronal mass ejections has been identified as a key problem in solar-terrestrial physics. Although recent CME shock acceleration models are highly promising, detailed agreement between theoretical predictions and observations has remained elusive. Recent observations from ACE have shown substantial enrichments in the abundances of ³He and He⁺ ions which are extremely rare in the thermal solar wind plasma. Consequently, these ions act as tracers of their source material, i.e., ³He ions are flare suprathermals and He⁺ ions are interstellar pickup ions. The average heavy ion composition also exhibits unsystematic differences when compared with the solar wind values, but correlates significantly with the ambient suprathermal material abundances. Taken together these results provide compelling evidence that CME-driven shocks draw their source material from the ubiquitous but largely unexplored suprathermal tail rather than from the more abundant solar wind peak. However, the suprathermal energy regime has many more contributors and exhibits much larger variability than the solar wind, and as such needs to be investigated more thoroughly. Answers to fundamental new questions regarding the preferred injection of the suprathermal ions, the spatial and temporal dependence of the various sources, and the causes of their variability and their effects on the SEP properties are needed to improve agreement between the simulations and observations.     

Hard rock cosmic ray archaeology

Recent examinations of extraterrestrial materials exposed to cosmic rays for different intervals of time during the geological history of the solar system have generated a wealth of new information on the history of cosmic radiation. This information relates to the temporal variations in

1. the flux and energy spectrum of low energy (solar) protons of ? 10 MeV kinetic energy;
2. the flux and energy spectrum of (solar) heavy nuclei of Z > 20 of kinetic energy, 0.5–10 MeV/n;
3. the integrated flux of protons and heavier nuclei of ? 0.5 GeV kinetic energy, and
4. the flux and energy spectrum of nuclei of Z > 20 of medium energy — 100–2000 MeV/n kinetic energy.

The above studies are entirely based on the natural detector method which utilises two principal cosmogenic effects observed in rocks, (i) isotopic changes and (ii) changes in the crystalline structure of rock constituents, due to cosmogenic interactions. The information available to date in the field of hard rock cosmic ray archaeology refers to meteorites and lunar rocks/soil. Additional information based on study of cosmogenic effects in man-made materials exposed to cosmic radiation in space is also discussed. It is shown that the natural detectors inspite of their extreme simplicity have begun to provide cosmic ray information in a very quantitative and precise manner comparable to the most sophisticated electronic particle detectors. The single handicap in using the hard rock detectors is however the uncertainty regarding their manner of exposure, geometry etc. At present, a variety of techniques are being used to study the evolutionary history of extraterrestrial materials and as this field grows, uncertainties in cosmic ray archaeology will correspondingly decrease.     

Neutron measurements in space

The experimental measurements of the neutron flux and energy spectrum in space since 1964 are reviewed and related to the theoretical predictions. A discussion of the neutron sources is presented. The difficulties associated with neutron measurements of both the atmospheric neutron leakage flux and solar neutrons are included. Particular emphasis is placed upon the neutron leakage flux and energy measurements at energies greater than about 1 MeV. The possibilities of CRAND as a source for the energetic trapped protons are discussed in light of recent measurements of the 10–100 MeV neutron flux. The current status of the solar neutron flux observations is also presented.The primary purposes of neutron measurements in space have been to determine the neutron leakage flux from the atmosphere of the Earth and the solar neutron flux. As a consequence of the inefficient methods for neutron detection and the difficulties of conducting the measurements in the presence of the galactic and solar cosmic-ray backgrounds, the experimental results are very conflicting. It is the purpose of this review to interpret and discuss recent neutron measurements. In order to understand these results the theoretical predictions of the neutron fluxes and energy spectra from possible neutron sources will be briefly presented. Since comparisons of the different neutron measurements depend critically upon the experimental techniques, we will briefly discuss neutron detection methods applicable to space measurements. The emphasis will be upon measurements since 1964 made outside the Earth's atmosphere, but considerable reference will be made to high energy neutron experiments conducted within the Earth's atmosphere at < 10g cm^-2 altitude. A review of earlier neutron measurements of terrestrial and solar neutrons has been made by Haymes (1965).     

Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.