China's rise in space and US policy responses: A collision course?

China's opaque politics present particular difficulties for US space policy. Heavily invested in and reliant on space, the US will closely monitor China's burgeoning space program. New space powers, and the increasing use of space generally will further create significant challenges, most particularly to the reliance of states on space for national security. In order to maintain its space capabilities, the US will have to decide between securing this via multilateral and co-operative uses of space, or through trying to maintain a level of dominance over other space actors. While very gradually shifting away from the latter position, Washington's policy choices are complicated by the lack of a clear Chinese space strategy. While the Chinese space program, and its wider intentions, are opaque, tenure of a more cooperative approach course might prove fragile.     

Will China become a military space superpower?

China's ambitious space program was born in extremely poor national conditions in 1956. By 15 October 2003, with the successful return of the Shenzhou-4 manned space flight, it had developed dramatically. While this flight is a milestone in China's space capabilities, the Shenzhou-4 mission should be considered not as an end, but as the entry ticket to the space power club of the USA and Russia. China may now be a space power, but it is not yet a military space superpower in the way of the latter two countries. This paper investigates whether China will become a military space superpower by reviewing the development of its space program. It examines Chinese military space capabilities in terms of their military space potential, and discusses the political, military and economic implications of this issue. Finally, the paper suggests that China should continue to take the road to openness, focusing on commercial and economic efforts. This will be an alternative direction in which the country can consider exactly what space capabilities it needs in order to continue its economic development.     

Stepping stones toward global space exploration

Several nations are currently engaging in or planning for robotic and human space exploration programs that target the Moon, Mars and near-Earth asteroids. These ambitious plans to build new space infrastructures, transport systems and space probes will require international cooperation if they are to be sustainable and affordable. Partnerships must involve not only established space powers, but also emerging space nations and developing countries; the participation of these new space actors will provide a bottom-up support structure that will aid program continuity, generate more active members in the space community, and increase public awareness of space activities in both developed and developing countries. The integration of many stakeholders into a global space exploration program represents a crucial element securing political and programmatic stability. How can the evolving space community learn to cooperate on a truly international level while engaging emerging space nations and developing countries in a meaningful way? We propose a stepping stone approach toward a global space exploration program, featuring three major elements: (1) an international Earth-based field research program preparing for planetary exploration, (2) enhanced exploitation of the International Space Station (ISS) enabling exploration and (3) a worldwide CubeSat program supporting exploration. An international Earth-based field research program can serve as a truly global exploration testbed that allows both established and new space actors to gain valuable experience by working together to prepare for future planetary exploration missions. Securing greater exploitation of the ISS is a logical step during its prolonged lifetime; ISS experiments, partnerships and legal frameworks are valuable foundations for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. Cooperation involving small, low-cost missions could be a major stride toward exciting and meaningful participation from emerging space nations and developing countries. For each of these three proposed stepping stones, recommendations for coordination mechanisms are presented.     

The future of human spaceflight.

After the Apollo Moon program, the international space station represents a further milestone of humankind in space, International follow-on programs like a manned return to the Moon and a first manned Mars Mission can be considered as the next logical step. More and more attention is also paid to the topic of future space tourism in Earth orbit, which is currently under investigation in the USA, Japan and Europe due to its multibillion dollar market potential and high acceptance in society. The wide variety of experience, gained within the space station program, should be used in order to achieve time and cost savings for future manned programs. Different strategies and roadmaps are investigated for space tourism and human missions to the Moon and Mars, based on a comprehensive systems analysis approach. By using DLR's software tool FAST (Fast Assessment of Space Technologies), different scenarios will be defined, optimised and finally evaluated with respect to mission architecture, required technologies, total costs and program duration. This includes trajectory analysis, spacecraft design on subsystem level, operations and life cycle cost analysis. For space tourism, an expected evolutionary roadmap will be described which is initiated by short suborbital tourism and ends with visionary designs like the Space Hotel Berlin and the Space Hotel Europe concept. Furthermore the potential space tourism market, its economic meaning as well as the expected range of the costs of a space ticket (e.g. $50,000 for a suborbital flight) will be analysed and quantified. For human missions to the Moon and Mars, an international 20 year program for the first decades of the next millennium is proposed, which requires about $2.5 Billion per year for a manned return to the Moon program and about $2.6 Billion per year for the first 3 manned Mars missions. This is about the annual budget, which is currently spend by the USA only for the operations of its Space Shuttle fleet which generally proofs the affordability of such ambitious programs after the build-up of the International Space Station, when corresponding budget might become again available.     

The shuttle development and its growth potential

During the next two decades, we will establish the foundation for the 21st century's accomplishments in space. The Space Shuttle vehicle will become the cornerstone for that foundation by providing economical opportunities for space exploration and utilization.Reusability of the Shuttle vehicle is the key to its economy. The major developmental challenges encountered in the Shuttle program are typified by the complexities involved in designing the reusable propulsion and thermal protection subsystems. We successfully met such challenges and are nearing the launch of the first Shuttle orbital flight.Our immediate goal is to enter the Space Shuttle operational phase because only then will we fully understand the unique capabilities of the Shuttle. Concurrent with our effort to begin Shuttle operations are our initial efforts to expand Shuttle capabilities, extending them significantly beyond those of the current baseline system.Shuttle payload capacity and mission-duration capabilities are to increase considerably during the next decade. Just as present Shuttle performance specifications and development timetables were guided by the space program plans and forecasts of the 1960s, so will the development of long-range space programs be determined by our near-future achievements. We anticipate that the Space Shuttle will play a critical role in those achievements.     

Canada's early space policy development 1958–1974

In the absence of a mature body of literature on the origins and evolution of the Canadian space program, recent official publications have arbitrarily chosen 1974, the year that Canada's civilian space policy was ratified in the House of Commons, as the popular date of origin. However, this start date ignores several significant policy documents that influenced Canada's space program development prior to that year. This article examines policy that shaped Canada's space program during the ‘golden age’ of space exploration (1958–1974), and will demonstrate that the true origins of the Canadian space program date back much earlier that the current perception.     

‘Did you see that,grandpa Mao?’ The prestige and propaganda rationales of the Chinese space program

China has seen a dramatic acceleration in the scope and capabilities of its space program in the past decade. This has been coupled with significantly increased global economic presence and influence as well as a steady improvement of its military capabilities. China's emergence as a major world actor has encouraged the emergence of a ‘China threat’ school of thought which interprets all Chinese policy, including its space program, as an evidence of a threatening challenge to US dominance in which the pursuit of a range of military space capabilities plays a central role. This article challenges that interpretation, arguing that China's space program is the product of a range of factors including powerful domestic political and developmental rationales and that the program is overwhelmingly driven by domestic rather than international considerations, particularly in terms of the use of the program for the purposes of enhancing prestige.     

NASA空间环境及效应(SEE)计划进展

文章介绍了NASA在1993年提出的空间环境及效应(下称SEE)计划,其目的是明确空间环境的定义,为设计、研制能适应严酷空间环境效应的航天器系统并使其正常运行提供技术支持.该计划包括认识空间环境、飞行试验和地面试验技术的优化、更新空间环境及其效应的预测模型、保存信息并将之纳入航天器的设计流程等方面.文章描述了SEE计划目前已取得的成就和未来的打算.     

Why go to the moon? The many faces of lunar policy

What is it about the Moon that captures the fancy of humankind? A silvery disk hanging in the night sky, it conjures up images of romance and magic. It has been counted upon to foreshadow important events, both of good and ill, and its phases for eons served humanity as its most accurate measure of time. This paper discusses the Moon as a target for human exploration and eventual settlement. This paper will explore the more than 50-year efforts to reach the Moon, succeeding with space probes and humans in Project Apollo in the 1960s and early 1970s. It will then discuss the rationales for spaceflight, suggesting that human space exploration is one of the least compelling of all that might be offered. The paper will then discuss efforts to make the Moon a second home, including post-Apollo planning, the Space Exploration Initiative, and problems and opportunities in the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration, and cancellation of that program in 2010.     

Long-term operation of "Orlan" space suits in the "Mir" orbiting station: experience obtained and its application

The started assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) and its further operation will call for a great number of extravehicular activity sorties (EVA) to be performed by ISS crews. Therefore, of great importance is to make use of the EVA experience gained by cosmonauts in the process of 15-year operation of the Mir orbiting station (OS). Over the 15-year period, Mir crewmembers wearing Orlan type semi-rigid space suits have accumulated 158 man/sorties from the orbiting station. Crewmembers used 15 suits in orbit and some of the suits were in operation for more than 3 years. The paper presents principal design features, which provide effective and safe operation of orbit-based suits, and briefly describes procedures for preparation and maintenance of suit systems, which ensure long-term operation of space suit in orbit. The paper gives results of the space suit modifications, presents suit performance characteristics and lists novel or upgraded components of the space suit and its systems. The paper also summarizes improvements in the Orlan type suits described in some earlier publications. They refer, in the first run, to the improvement of space suit operations characteristics and reliability, and the utilization of the Orlan type space suit in the ISS program. The paper analyses the experience gained and drawbacks detected and observations made, and gives statistical data on long-term space suit operations aboard the Mir station. The paper reviews certain problems in the process of EVAs performed from the station, and describes the ways of their solution as applied to the further utilization of the suit within the ISS program.     

Physiology, medicine, long-duration space flight and the NSBRI

The hazards of long-duration space flight are real and unacceptable. In order for humans to participate effectively in long-duration orbital missions or continue the exploration of space, we must first secure the health of the astronaut and the success of such missions by assessing in detail the biomedical risks of space flight and developing countermeasures to these hazards. Acquiring the understanding necessary for building a sound foundation for countermeasure development requires an integrated approach to research in physiology and medicine and a level of cooperative action uncommon in the biomedical sciences. The research program of the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) was designed to accomplish just such an integrated research goal, ameliorating or eliminating the biomedical risks of long-duration space flight and enabling safe and productive exploration of space. The fruits of these labors are not limited to the space program. We can also use the gained understanding of the effects and mechanisms of the physiological changes engendered in space and the applied preventive and rehabilitative methods developed to combat these changes to the benefit of those on Earth who are facing similar physiological and psychological difficulties. This paper will discuss the innovative approach the NSBRI has taken to integrated research management and will present some of the successes of this approach.     

A proposed Comet Nucleus Penetrator for the Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby mission

Among the major objectives of NASA's program of space exploration is a better understanding of the origin and evolution of the solar system. Crucial to this objective is the study of comets, which are thought to be the most primitive, pristine bodies remaining in the solar system. The importance of the study of comets has led NASA to plan a mission to rendezvous with comet Tempel 2 in 1997. Critical to the understanding of comets will be measurements of the nucleus material to determine its elemental and isotopic composition, its mechanical properties, and its thermal state and properties. This paper describes a proposal for a Comet Nucleus Penetrator to accomplish these measurement goals. The Comet Nucleus Penetrator will implant instruments into the comet's nucleus beneath a probable volatile-depleted surface mantle into material more representative of the bulk composition of the nucleus.     

New microgravity fundamental physics research areas in the ISS era

NASA's microgravity fundamental physics program has used the Space Shuttle to perform high resolutions experiments in space. As we come to the end of the Shuttle era, we will begin to perform research aboard the ISS. A large stable of ground based experiments have been selected from NASA Research Announcements in a variety of disciplines. These investigations will form the backbone from which to select future flight candidates. Research in Laser Cooling and Atomic Physics will enable us to operate highly precise clocks in space. Low temperature physics experiments will use a liquid helium facility with a six-month lifetime. This facility can also support experiments in gravitational physics. Researchers in biological physics will be offered an opportunity to develop future experiments that can benefit from space experimentation. An overview of the future research directions and the benefits to the community of performing research aboard the ISS will be presented.     

Cooperative research in microgravity sciences during the French manned MIR missions

During the past ten years the French laboratories working in the field of fluids and material sciences had access to regular, long-lasting manned missions onboard the Russian MIR Space Station. Beyond the French scientific program that was performed with the ALICE apparatus, a cooperative research program was developed with DLR, NASA and RSA. This cooperation was based on bartered agreements that included the joint utilization of the instruments onboard the MIR station (ALICE, TITUS furnace from DLR, vibration device from RKK Energia) and the funding of dedicated cartridges (DLR) or thermostats (DLR and NASA), as well as launch services (NASA) by the Cooperating Agencies. We present a review of this program with a particular emphasis on its scientific results and on the progress that has been achieved in science and applications. They covered a large field of condensed matter physics, from material sciences to near-critical and off-critical phase separation kinetics and near critical fluid hydrodynamics (thermoacoustic heat transport and vibrational convection). The high microgravity relevance of all these investigations naturally led to outstanding results that was published in the world's best scientific journals. The analysis of the latest experiments performed during the PEGASUS mission shows they will not be an exception to that evaluation. Off-critical phase separation with NASA, pressure-driven piston effect and equiaxed solidification with DLR, heat transport under calibrated vibrations with RKK Energia, all will be presented. The conclusion will stress the international character of this microgravity research program, the conditions of its success and what can be gained from it in the perspective of the space station utilization.     

ESCAP space technology applications programme

Between 19–24 September 1994, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific - ESCAP, the largest of the UN regional bodies - held a series of meetings to inaugurate a new program in space technology applications. This program will have a strong Earth Observation component, and is designed to strengthen environmentally sound and sustainable development in the Asia Pacific region, in line with recommendations of Agenda 21 arising from the Rio Summit in 1992. Jeff Kingwell reports on two of the meetings, the ministerial conference and the space technology exhibition.     

Can the demos make a difference? Prospects for participatory democracy in shaping the future course of US space exploration

US space exploration policy deliberations tend not to include citizens who lack direct, vested financial interests in the space enterprise. Could expanding the circle of US space policy development players to involve citizens more aptly serve space exploration and the interests of American democratic society in the 21st century? I evaluate the merits and feasibility of citizen participation, drawing upon democratic theory and scholarship analyzing public participation in techno-scientific matters, previous experiences of public involvement in space exploration policy formation, and reflections on my professional experiences in space policy development. I argue that public engagement will enrich the debate surrounding the US future in space and may point toward a program American citizens will support as a meaningful future in the cosmos. I suggest three guiding principles and outline four mechanisms that, if embraced by US space policy makers, could foster meaningful public participation in informing the US space exploration agenda.     

How shall we live in space? Culture, law and ethics in spacefaring society

The US civilian space program is focused on planning for a new round of human missions beyond Earth orbit, to realize a ‘vision’ for exploration articulated by President George W. Bush. It is important to examine this ‘vision’ in the broader context of the global enterprise of 21st century space exploration. How will extending a human presence into the Solar System affect terrestrial society and culture? What legal, ethical and other value systems should govern human activities in space? This paper will describe the current environment for space policy making and possible frameworks for future space law, ethics and culture. It also proposes establishment of a World Space Conference to aid deliberations on the above.     

What role for Europe within a future global space exploration approach?

Europe is present in robotic exploration though the European Space Agency?s mandatory space science program and the optional Aurora program. In addition some member states are also involved in projects of non-European space faring countries through bilateral co-operations. Europe is also present in human exploration through the ISS utilization program. ESA and some of its member states participate in the activities of the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG), a club of 14 space agencies working for the elaboration of a global exploration roadmap. Finally, ESA and the European Union have initiated a political approach with the setting up of an international forum so as to elaborate a commonly agreed vision on space exploration at political level.     

What next for China in space after Shenzhou?

This article discusses China's ambitions in space now that it seems set to pursue human spaceflight. It suggests that, after sending its astronauts into space, completing orbital rendezvous-docking operations and placing a space lab in orbit, China will focus on the Moon with its Chang’e project. As an emerging space power, China will play a more active role in the international space community through collaboration in areas such as lunar exploration, science operations on the International Space Station, the Galileo Global Navigation Satellite System and the International Geosphere–Biosphere Program (IGBP). In particular, China will vigorously explore new opportunities to expand its cooperation with Russia and ESA to counteract Washington's attempt at containment. Meanwhile, Beijing will continue to follow its self-reliance principle to go its own way in space.