A new paradigm for international cooperation in space exploration

In announcing a new Vision for the US space program, President George Bush committed the USA to “a long-term human and robotic program to explore the solar system”, via a return to the Moon, leading to exploration of Mars and other destinations. He also stated that other nations would be invited to join the vision. Many other nations have, or are developing, ‘exploration visions’ of their own. The potential for international cooperation therefore exists, both at the vision and program/project levels. This paper, based on Working Group discussions as part of an AIAA space cooperation workshop,¹ presents an approach for maximizing the return on all global investments in space exploration. It proposes an international coordination mechanism through which all these various national activities could be integrated into an inherently global enterprise for space exploration, a ‘virtual program of programs’. Within the context of the coordination, individual activities would utilize the full range of cooperative mechanisms for implementation. A significant benefit of this mode of conducting cooperation is that it would not require the negotiation of complex overarching international agreements as a precondition for initiating international activity.     

Stepping stones to the future: Achieving a sustainable lunar outpost

The current emphasis in the US and internationally on lunar robotic missions is generally viewed as a precursor to possible future human missions to the Moon. As initially framed, the implementation of high level policies such as the US Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) might have been limited to either human lunar sortie missions, or to the testing at the Moon of concepts-of-operations and systems for eventual human missions to Mars [White House, Vision for Space Exploration, Washington, DC, 14 January, 2004. [1]]. However, recently announced (December 2006) US goals go much further: these plans now place at the center of future US—and perhaps international—human spaceflight activities a long-term commitment to an outpost on the Moon.Based on available documents, a human lunar outpost could be emplaced as early as the 2020–2025 timeframe, and would involve numerous novel systems, new technologies and unique operations requirements. As such, substantial investments in research and development (R&D) will be necessary prior to, during, and following the deployment of such an outpost. It seems possible that such an outpost will be an international endeavor, not just the undertaking of a single country—and the US has actively courted partners in the VSE. However, critical questions remain concerning an international lunar outpost. What might such an outpost accomplish? To what extent will “sustainability” be built into the outpost? And, most importantly, what will be the outpost's life cycle cost (LCC)?This paper will explore these issues with a view toward informing key policy and program decisions that must be made during the next several years. The paper will (1) describe a high-level analytical model of a modest lunar outpost, (2) examine (using this model) the parametric characteristics of the outpost in terms of the three critical questions indicated above, and (3) present rough estimates of the relationships of outpost goals and “sustainability” to LCC. The paper will also consider possible outpost requirements for near-term investments in enabling research in light of experiences in past advanced technology programs.     

Searching for the magic bullet

A powerful statistical tool, paired-comparison, was tested as a method to determine the relative value American people place on two possibly competing paradigms in the United States Space Program: “Space as a Place to Explore” and “Civil and Commercial Uses of Space”. A limitation of the results, but not the methodology, is the participants were college students, not “voting” adults. Reliability and validity of items were developed and tested in two studies suggesting that the paired-comparison method is a reliable and powerful tool for measuring the relative value the public may place on programs within the US Space Program.     

Recent progress on the lunar farside crater Saha proposal

The aim of this review, whose title might as well be “Toward a dedicated lunar farside radio observatory”, is to provide information for potential interested workers whom we invite to contribute to this multidisciplinary effort.First point: in view of the dramatic increase of radio interference due to the development of satellite-based human telecommunications, it will soon become impossible to conduct valuable high-sensitivity SETI observations from the terrestrial ground. It is why a few years ago I started an interdisciplinary and international endeavor to protect for the next 20/30 years a well specified lunar farside crater (Saha) which no Earth- or geostationary orbit-based radio emission could reach.After raising technical, programmatic, legal, astronautical, industrial, political, ethical issues at a number of conferences of international learned institutions, this enterprise is now of interest for the wider field of next generation high-sensitivity radioastronomy at large, from decametric to sub-millimetric waves.This last year, positive results were the creation of an IAA Sub-committee for “A Lunar SETI Study”, the presentation of a Resolution to the IAU for the protection of a potential lunar radio observatory site, discussions at the IAA/IISL Scientific-Legal Roundtable on SETI & Society at IAF Congress in Torino, the organization of a half-day Scientific Event at next COSPAR Assembly in Nagoya and the initiation of an IAA Cosmic Study on the subject.We shall conclude by outlining the next efforts to be initiated up to a real Moon radio observatory.     

Planetary Defense From Space: Part 2 (Simple) Asteroid Deflection Law

A system of two space bases housing missiles for an efficient Planetary Defense of the Earth from asteroids and comets was firstly proposed by this author in 2002. It was then shown that the five Lagrangian points of the Earth–Moon system lead naturally to only two unmistakable locations of these two space bases within the sphere of influence of the Earth. These locations are the two Lagrangian points L1 (in between the Earth and the Moon) and L3 (in the direction opposite to the Moon from the Earth). In fact, placing missiles based at L1 and L3 would enable the missiles to deflect the trajectory of incoming asteroids by hitting them orthogonally to their impact trajectory toward the Earth, thus maximizing the deflection at best. It was also shown that confocal conics are the only class of missile trajectories fulfilling this “best orthogonal deflection” requirement.The mathematical theory developed by the author in the years 2002–2004 was just the beginning of a more expanded research program about the Planetary Defense. In fact, while those papers developed the formal Keplerian theory of the Optimal Planetary Defense achievable from the Earth–Moon Lagrangian points L1 and L3, this paper is devoted to the proof of a simple “(small) asteroid deflection law” relating directly the following variables to each other:

(1) the speed of the arriving asteroid with respect to the Earth (known from the astrometric observations);

(2) the asteroid's size and density (also supposed to be known from astronomical observations of various types);

(3) the “security radius” of the Earth, that is, the minimal sphere around the Earth outside which we must force the asteroid to fly if we want to be safe on Earth. Typically, we assume the security radius to equal about 10,000 km from the Earth center, but this number might be changed by more refined analyses, especially in the case of “rubble pile” asteroids;

(4) the distance from the Earth of the two Lagrangian points L1 and L3 where the defense missiles are to be housed;

(5) the deflecting missile's data, namely its mass and especially its “extra-boost”, that is, the extra-energy by which the missile must hit the asteroid to achieve the requested minimal deflection outside the security radius around the Earth.

This discovery of the simple “asteroid deflection law” presented in this paper was possible because:

(1) In the vicinity of the Earth, the hyperbola of the arriving asteroid is nearly the same as its own asymptote, namely, the asteroid's hyperbola is very much like a straight line. We call this approximation the line/circle approximation. Although “rough” compared to the ordinary Keplerian theory, this approximation simplifies the mathematical problem to such an extent that two simple, final equations can be derived.

(2) The confocal missile trajectory, orthogonal to this straight line, ceases then to be an ellipse to become just a circle centered at the Earth. This fact also simplifies things greatly. Our results are thus to be regarded as a good engineering approximation, valid for a preliminary astronautical design of the missiles and bases at L1 and L3.

Still, many more sophisticated refinements would be needed for a complete Planetary Defense System:

(1) taking into account many perturbation forces of all kinds acting on both the asteroids and missiles shot from L1 and L3;

(2) adding more (non-optimal) trajectories of missiles shot from either the Lagrangian points L4 and L5 of the Earth–Moon system or from the surface of the Moon itself;

(3) encompassing the full range of missiles currently available to the USA (and possibly other countries) so as to really see “which missiles could divert which asteroids”, even just within the very simplified scheme proposed in this paper.

In summary: outlined for the first time in February 2002, our Confocal Planetary Defense concept is a simplified Keplerian Theory that already proved simple enough to catch the attention of scholars, popular writers, and representatives of the US Military. These developments would hopefully mark the beginning of a general mathematical vision for building an efficient Planetary Defense System in space and in the vicinity of the Earth, although not on the surface of the Earth itself!We must make a real progress beyond academic papers, Hollywood movies and secret military plans, before asteroids like 99942 Apophis get close enough to destroy us in 2029 or a little later.     

International coordination of space solar power related activities

Because the need for energy is global, and many energy networks are already interdependent, because no one country has sufficient technological capability or sufficient funds to provide a space solar powered solution on its own, and because any such solution will require international regulation, international coordination will be vital to any attempt to produce energy for Earth from space. This will be made easier by the fact that work on the subject has already been widely publicized and distributed and cooperative efforts have already been made. Various coordinating approaches are described and the need to forge partnerships between government, industry and academia — with greater involvement of all non-space groups concerned with energy — is emphasized. A “terracing approach” to the actual implementation of SPS is suggested and outlined.     

Autonomic function testing aboard the ISS using “PNEUMOCARD”

Investigations of blood pressure, heart rate (HR), and heart rate variability (HRV) during long term space flights on board the “ISS” have shown characteristic changes of autonomic cardiovascular control. Therefore, alterations of the autonomic nervous system occurring during spaceflight may be responsible for in- and post-flight disturbances. The device “Pneumocard” was developed to further investigate autonomic cardiovascular and respiratory function aboard the ISS. The hard-software diagnostic complex “Pneumocard” was used during in-flight experiment aboard ISS for autonomic function testing. ECG, photoplethysmography, respiration, transthoracic bioimpedance and seismocardiography were assessed in one male cosmonaut (flight lengths six month). Recordings were made prior to the flight, late during flight, and post-flight during spontaneous respiration and controlled respiration at different rates.HR remained stable during flight. The values were comparable to supine measurements on earth. Respiratory frequency and blood pressure decreased during flight. Post flight HR and BP values increased compared to in-flight data exceeding pre-flight values. Cardiac time intervals did not change dramatically during flight. Pulse wave transit time decreased during flight. The maximum of the first time derivative of the impedance cardiogram, which is highly correlated with stroke volume was not reduced in-flight.Our results demonstrate that autonomic function testing aboard the ISS using “Pneumocard” is feasible and generates data of good quality. Despite the decrease in BP, pulse wave transit time was found reduced in space as shown earlier. However, cardiac output did not decrease profoundly in the investigated cosmonaut.Autonomic testing during space flight detects individual changes in cardiovascular control and may add important information to standard medical control. The recent plans to support a flight to Mars, makes these kinds of observations all the more relevant and compelling.     

X-38, CRV and CRV Evolution Program Overview and European Role

The X-38 Project forms part of the “X” prototype vehicle family developed by the United States. Its development was initiated by NASA to prepare the Crew Return Vehicle (CRV). The European participation in the X-38 Program has been significantly extended since the start of the X-38 cooperation in 1997 and is realized by ESA's “Applied Reentry Technology Program” and the German/DLR “Technologies for Future Space Transportation Systems” (TETRA) Project. European contributions to the X-38 Vehicle 201, (V-201) can be found in all technical key areas. The orbital flight and reentry with the X-38 V-201 will conclude the X-38 project in 2002.The CRV will be used from about mid-2005 as ’ambulance‘, ’lifeboat‘ or as alternate return vehicle for the crew of the International Space Station. Recognizing the very productive and mutually beneficial cooperation established on X-38, NASA and ESA have decided to continue this cooperation into the development of the operational CRV. The Phase C/D will be completed shortly after the Critical Design Review, scheduled for August 2002. The CRV production phase will start in October 2002 and will cover production of four CRV vehicles, ending in 2006.Based on the objective to identify a further evolution potential of the CRV towards a Crew Cargo Transfer Vehicle (CCTV), NASA has implemented upgrade studies in the CRV Phase C/D.     

“Space superiority”: Wernher von Braun's campaign for a nuclear-armed space station, 1946–1956

The literature on the history of spaceflight has depicted the early 1950s Collier’s articles mostly as a forerunner to the peaceful and scientific exploration of space. Yet the centerpiece of Wernher von Braun's plan was a manned space station that would serve as reconnaissance platform and orbiting battle station for achieving “space superiority” over the USSR. One its roles could be the launching of nuclear missiles. When challenged as to the station's defensibility, von Braun even posited pre-emptive atomic strikes from space as a response to the development of a hostile anti-satellite capability.     

Lessons learned from Mir--a payload perspective

Among the principal objectives of the Phase 1 NASA/Mir program were for the United States to gain experience working with an international partner, to gain working experience in long-duration space flight, and to gain working experience in planning for and executing research on a long-duration space platform. The Phase 1 program was to provide the US early experience prior to the construction and operation of the International Space Station (Phase 2 and 3). While it can be argued that Mir and ISS are different platforms and that programmatically Phase 1 and ISS are organized differently, it is also clear that many aspects of operating a long-duration research program are platform independent. This can be demonstrated by a review of lessons learned from Skylab, a US space station program of the mid-1970s, many of which were again “learned” on Mir and are being “learned” on ISS. Among these are optimum crew training strategies, on-orbit crew operations, ground support, medical operations and crew psychological support, and safety certification processes.     

The overredundant spacecraft—A competitive approach to future telecommunication satellites

Present operational space telecommunication systems are based on simultaneous availability of more than one satellite on orbit, mainly a spare satellite in addition to the operational one.Considering the costs associated to the delivery of extra flight models and to extra launchers, the question is asked whether it would not be advantageous to launch a very limited number of “overredundant” spacecraft instead of several standard satellites.The paper gives main conditions of reliability, size and redundancy concept under which an “overredundant” spacecraft could be a competitive approach to future operational systems.     

Legal consequences of a SETI detection

If a detection of ETI takes place, this will in all probability be the result of either: (a) detecting and recognising a signal or other emission of ETI; or (b) the finding of an alien artifact (for instance on the Moon or other Celestial Body of our Solar System); or (c) the highly improbable event of an actual encounter. First and foremost, legal consequences regarding any of these contingencies will result from immediate consultations between nations on Earth. Understandings, memoranda and even agreements might be proposed and/or concluded. Such results within the field of terrestrial law will surely be a new branch of International Law, and particularly of International Space Law. At the same time, terrestrial nations will have to realize that any ETI will be self-determined intelligent individualities or organizations who might have their own understanding of “rules of behaviour” and thus, be legal subjects. Whether one calls such rules “law” or not: if two intelligent races—both of which have specific rules of behaviour—come into contact with each other, the basic understanding of such mutual rules will lead to a kind of “code of conduct”. This might be the starting point for a kind of Law—Metalaw—between different races in the Universe.     

Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

25 YEARS OF SPACE AT SURREY—PIONEERING MODERN MICROSATELLITES

Space at Surrey has developed over 25 years from very modest beginnings in 1974 to an international space centre by 1998. It has pioneered small satellites and succeeded in launching 14 low cost but sophisticated microsatellites over the course of two decades. In the 1990s, small satellites have become fashionable—but this was not always so! This paper describes the 25 years history of “Space at Surrey”.     

Life and intelligence in the universe from nanobiological principles: A survey and budget of concepts and perspectives

The new-born bioscience called Nanobiology has tackled the problems of the possibility of existence of extraterrestrial life and intelligence and of biosystem distribution in the Universe, as such questions actually belong to the realm of Theoretical Biology. The central, and yet unanswered points of such science have been reinvestigated by attempting knowledge and control of the hard-to-determine nanoscale-level classical and quantum interactions, which would supposedly give mechanistic, definite answers, both informationally and energetically, to the vexing questions put by biosystems to science: is the “living state” a physically definible concept, and how to define it? Are nanoscale kinetics or even detailed mechanics involved in the origin of life? What about intelligence, consciousness and their nanophysical roots? Are “life” and “intelligence” engineerable properties, or is any Artificial Intelligence program bound to mere metaphors? Self-organization, studied at the thermodynamic and the hydrodynamic level, showed the possibility of chemical evolution from amino acids, probably of cometary and/or meteoritic origin, up to spatiotemporal organization, autopoiesis and biological evolution, but didn't explain the origins of life. Questioning the uniqueness of the earthly evolutionary chemistry is cardinal for the ETI dilemma, as from a budgetary appraisal of perspectives in bionanoscale chaotic undecidable dynamics, quantum gravity and quantum vacuum, both “living state” and “intelligence” look like nonlocal, spacetime-linked cosmic phenomena.     

Technology readiness assessments: A retrospective

The development of new system capabilities typically depends upon the prior success of advanced technology research and development efforts. These systems developments inevitably face the three major challenges of any project: performance, schedule and budget. Done well, advanced technology programs can substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. Done poorly, or not at all, and new system developments suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.In the mid 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the concept of “technology readiness levels” (TRLs) as a discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) to allow more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. In 1995, the TRL scale was further strengthened by the articulation of the first definitions of each level, along with examples (J. Mankins, Technology readiness levels, A White Paper, NASA, Washington, DC, 1995. [1]). Since then, TRLs have been embraced by the U.S. Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO), adopted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and are being considered for use by numerous other organizations. Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes diverse organizations.This paper will review the concept of “technology readiness assessments”, and provide a retrospective on the history of “TRLs” during the past 30 years. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important discipline of technology readiness assessments.     

Parametric study of the diversion of a near Earth object on an Earth intersecting trajectory

To date, NASA's “Near Earth Object Program” has discovered over 5500 comets and asteroids on trajectories that bring them within “the neighborhood” of Earth's orbit. Nearly 1000 of these objects are classified as “potentially hazardous,” passing within 0.05 astronomical units of Earth's orbit. Discovery rates of such threatening bodies increase each year. Given this multitude of threats, in addition to evidence that the planet has absorbed many impacts over its history, it is reasonable to assume that another object will strike the Earth at some point in the future. Consequently, researchers have studied and proposed several mitigation techniques for such an occurrence. This study seeks to determine how effectively the attachment of a tether and ballast mass would divert the trajectory of such threatening objects. Specifically, the study analyzes the effects over time of such a system on objects of varying orbital semimajor axis and eccentricity, using various tether lengths and ballast masses. It was determined that the technique is most effective for NEOs with high eccentricity and small semimajor axis, and that system performance increases as tether length and ballast mass increase.     

Perturbation solutions for variable energy blast waves

The trajectory of and the flow field behind blast waves with time varying energy input is determined. Freeman's (1968) Lagrangean coordinate formulation is modified to include both the geometric factor, α, for plane, cylindrical and spherical shocks and also non-integer values of β, the energy input parameter, in a single computational algorithm. Numerical problems associated with vanishing density at the inner mass boundary or “piston face” are then examined and solved. Second order perturbation solutions about the solution for an infinite strength shock are then obtained in Sakurai's (1965) inverse shock Mach number expansion parameter for 0 β < α + 1. Tables and graphs of significant numerical coefficients are presented for comparison to, and extension of, results of other authors. Graphs of typical shock trajectories and flow field density, pressure and velocity variations are also presented and discussed.     

Special regions in Mars exploration: Problems and potential

“Special regions” on Mars are areas designated in the COSPAR planetary protection policy as areas that may support Earth microbes inadvertently introduced to Mars, or that may have a high probability of supporting indigenous martian life. Since absolutely nothing is known about martian life, the operational definition of a special region is a place that may allow the formation and maintenance of liquid water, on or under the surface of Mars. This paper will review the special-regions concept, the implications of recent recommendations on avoiding them, and the work of the Mars science community in providing an operational definition of those areas on Mars that are “non-special.”