Peculiarities of long-wave radio bursts from solar flares preceding strong geomagnetic storms

Radio bursts in the frequency range of 100–1500 kHz, recorded in 1997–2000 on the INTERBALL-1 satellite during the solar flares preceding the strong geomagnetic storms with D _st < ?100 nT, are analyzed in this paper. The observed long-wave III-type radio bursts of solar origin at frequencies of 1460 and 780 kHz were characterized by large values of the flux S _f = 10^?15 ?10^?17 W/m² Hz and duration longer than 10 min. The rapid frequency drift of a modulated radio burst continued up to a frequency of 250 kHz, which testified that the exciting agent (a beam of energetic electrons) propagated from the Sun to the Earth. All such flares were characterized by the appearance of halo coronal mass ejections, observed by the LASCO/SOHO, and by the presence of a southward B_z-component of the IMF, measured on the ACE and WIND spacecraft. In addition, shortly after radio bursts, the INTERBALL-1 satellite has recorded the fluxes of energetic electrons with E > 40 keV.     

Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

Numerical simulation of effects of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse in the outer ionosphere

The results of a numerical simulation of such parameters of the topside ionosphere as concentration N _e and temperature T _e of electrons, and concentration n(H⁺) and fluxes along the magnetic field lines Φ(H⁺) of H⁺ ions at an altitude of ～2000 km for the conditions of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse are presented. The calculations were performed using the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere of the Earth (GSM TIP). It is shown that during the eclipse, in addition to a region of decreased values of T _e in the Northern Hemisphere and in the magnetically conjugate region in the Southern Hemisphere, regions of electron heating emerge in both hemispheres. Simultaneously, an extended region of decreased values of N _e comes into existence and moves behind the Moon’s shadow. Regions with decreased (down to ～30%) and enhanced (up to ～50%) concentrations of H⁺ ions are detected in the global distribution of these ions.     

Energy dependence of the characteristic decay time of proton fluxes in solar cosmic ray events

Energetic solar proton events within the energy interval 1–48 MeV at the stage of their decay are considered over the period of 1974–2001. The dependence of the characteristic decay time on the proton energy in the assumed power-law representation τ(E) =E ^?n is analyzed for the events with an exponential decay form. The dependence of n on the heliolongitude of the flare (the particles source on the Sun) is studied.     

Time delays in the nonthermal radiation of solar flares according to observations of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">CORONAS-F</Emphasis> satellite

In 2001–2003, the X-ray and microwave observations of ten solar flares of M- and X-classes were carried out by the CORONAS-F orbital station, the RSTN Sun service, and Nobeyama radio polarimeters. Based on these observations, a correlation analysis of time profiles of nonthermal radiation was performed. On average, hard X-ray radiation outstrips the microwave radiation in 9 events, i.e., time delays are positive. The appearance of negative delays is associated with effective scattering of accelerated electrons in pitch angles, where the length of the free path of a particle is less than the half-length of a flare loop. The additional indications are obtained in favor of the need to account for the effect of magnetic mirrors on the dynamics of energetic particles in the coronal arches.     

Observations of corotating solar wind structures at radio sounding by signals of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rosetta</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mars Express</Emphasis> spacecraft

In the implementation of the space projects Rosetta and Mars Express, a large-scale series of experiments has been carried out on radio sounding circumsolar plasma by decimeter (S-band) and centimeter (X-band) signals of the Rosetta comet probe (from October 3 to October 31, 2010) and the Mars Express satellite of Mars (from December 25, 2010 to March 27, 2011). It was found that in the phase of ingress the spacecraft behind the Sun, the intensity of the frequency fluctuations increases in accordance with a power function whose argument is the solar offset distance of radio ray path, and when the spacecraft is removed from the Sun (the egress phase), frequency fluctuations are reduced. Periodic strong increases in the fluctuation level, exceeding by a factor of 3–12 the background values of this value determined by the regular radial dependences, are imposed on the regular dependences. It was found that increasing the fluctuations of radio waves alternates with the periodicity m × T or n × T, where m = 1/2, n = 1, аnd T is the synodic period of the Sun’s rotation (T ≈ 27 days). It was shown that the corotating structures associated with the interaction regions of different speed fluxes are formed in the area of solar wind acceleration and at distances of 6–20 solar radii already have a quasi-stationary character.     

Solar flare with a surge: Scenario,energy budget,and forecast

Based on the analysis of solar events on August 18, 1995 (SN/C1.9 limb event) and September 23, 1998 (3B/M6.9 disk event) we suggest a new scenario of a solar flare with a surge in which the return motion of a surge is a cause of additional energy release and formation of a second system of solar flare ribbons. Observations in H_α line and data on X-ray emission fluxes in the range 1–8 Å and 0.5–4 Å are supplemented for the second case by the data in line 1550 Å. The scenario specifies two stages of development. During the first one the energy release proceeds in the current layer, which makes provisions both for acceleration of eruption upward from the solar surface and for the flare itself, including flare region heating, and radiation and thermal conductance losses. The second stage of the flare is supplied with energy due to a fall of the surge substance onto the chromosphere. The second pair of flare ribbons observed at this stage is suggested as a chromospheric criterion of realization of this scenario for disk flares. The energy released during the first stage of the flare on September 23, 1998 was equal to ～3 · 10³¹ erg. Its part consumed on flare processes is about ～0.5 · 10³¹ erg. The remaining part representing the eruption energy is consistent in order of magnitude with a calculated value of the flare energy on the second stage, which does not contradict the suggested scenario. Early recognition of such a scenario for flares on the disk can be used for prompt space weather forecast. In particular, a flare with a surge allows one to predict the absence of a bright core in a coronal mass ejection.     

Sporadic structures and small-scale irregularity in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the period of high solar activity according to the data of radio occultation measurements on satellite-to-satellite paths

Results of the analysis of 327 sessions of radio occultation on satellite-to-satellite paths are presented. The data are taken in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the regions with latitudes of 67°–88°, and in the period of high solar activity from October 26, 2003 to November 9, 2003. Typical ionospheric changes in the amplitude and phase of decimeter radio waves on paths GPS satellites-CHAMP satellite are presented. It is demonstrated that these data make it possible to determine characteristics of the sporadic E _s structures in the lower ionosphere at heights of 75–120 km. Histograms of distribution of the lower and upper boundaries, thickness, and intensity of the E _s structures are presented. Dispersion and spectra of amplitude fluctuations of decimeter radio waves caused by small-scale irregularity of the ionospheric plasma are analyzed. The relation of the polar E _s structures and intensity of small-scale plasma irregularity to various manifestations of solar activity is discussed. The efficiency of monitoring the ionospheric disturbances caused by shock waves of the solar wind by the radio occultation method on satellite-to-satellite paths is demonstrated.     

Solar activity index for long-term ionospheric forecasts

Based on the comparison of solar activity indices (annual average values of the relative number of sunspots Rz₁₂ and solar radio emission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm F₁₂) with the ionospheric index of solar activity IG₁₂ for 1954–2013, we have found that the index F₁₂ is a more accurate (than Rz₁₂) indicator of solar activity for the long-term forecast of foF2 (the critical frequency of the F2-layer). This advantage of the F₁₂ index becomes especially significant after 2000 if the specific features of extreme ultraviolet radiation of the Sun are additionally taken into account in the minima of solar cycles, using an appropriate correction to F₁₂. Qualitative arguments are given in favor of the use of F₁₂ for the long-term forecast of both foF2 and other ionospheric parameters.     

Statistical investigation of Heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms: 2

This work is a continuation of investigation [1] of the behavior of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s parameters near the onset of geomagnetic storms for various types of solar wind streams. The data of the OMNI base for the 1976–2000 period are used in the analysis. The types of solar wind streams were determined, and the times of beginning (onsets) of magnetic storms were distributed in solar wind types as follows: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). The growth of variations (hourly standard deviations) of the density and IMF magnitude was observed 5–10 hours before the onset only in the Sheath. For the CIR-, Sheath-and MC-induced storms the dependence between the minimum of the IMF B _z-component and the minimum of the D _st -index, as well as the dependence between the electric field E _y of solar wind and the minimum of the D _st -index are steeper than those for the “uncertain” solar wind type. The steepest D _st vs. B _z dependence is observed in the Sheath, and the steepest D _st vs. E _y dependence is observed in the MC.     

Turbulent fluctuations of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the magnetosheath and the low-latitude boundary layer formation: Multisatellite observations on March 2, 1996

The results of simultaneous analysis of plasma and magnetic field characteristics measured on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe, WIND and Geotail satellites on March 2, 1996, are presented. During these observations the INTERBALL/Tail Probe crossed the low-latitude boundary layer, and the WIND and Geotail satellites measured the solar wind’s and magnetosheath’s parameters, respectively. The plasma and magnetic field characteristics in these regions have been compared. The data of the Corall, Electron, and MIF instruments on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe satellite are analyzed. Fluctuations of the magnetic field components and plasma velocity in the solar wind and magnetosheath, measured onboard the WIND and Geotail satellites, are compared. The causes resulting in appearance of plasma jet flows in the low-latitude boundary layer are analyzed. The amplitude of magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath for a studied magnetosphere boundary crossing is shown to exceed the magnetic field value below the magnetopause near the cusp. The possibility of local violation of pressure balance on the magnetopause is discussed, as well as penetration of magnetosheath plasma into the magnetosphere, as a result of magnetic field and plasma flux fluctuations in the magnetosheath.     

Fluxes of Quasi-trapped Electrons with Energies >0.08 MeV in the Near-Earth Space on Drift Shells <Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis> < 2

We study the characteristics of fluxes of electrons with energy >80 keV in the near-Earth space regions corresponding to the drift shells L = 1.7, 1.4, and 1.1 observed during the entire period of the GRIF experiment onboard the Spectr module of the Mir orbital station from October 1995 to June 1997. The obtained geographic maps of the distribution of electron fluxes at the height of the station flight (400 km) and, also, the estimates of the spectra indicate that the South-Atlantic Anomaly provides for a mechanism of stable replenishment for shells with L < 1.5. The mechanism of stable replenishment of shells with L < 1.5 may be due to the scattering, in the residual atmosphere, of electrons from the inner radiation belt precipitating into the region of the South-Atlantic Anomaly.     

Study of notches in the Earth’s plasmasphere based on data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">MAGION-5</Emphasis> satellite

Depleted narrow (localized in longitude) regions (field tubes) in the plasmasphere, recently discovered in He⁺ radiation measurements on the IMAGE spacecraft, were first directly observed by the Magion-5 satellite. The low-density regions (notches) occupy <～ 10–30° in longitude and extend from L ～ 2–3 to the plasmasphere boundary in neighboring plasmasphere regions with larger densities. The Magion-5 data give evidence that in the low-density regions temperature is enhanced as compared to the neighboring denser plasmasphere regions. Formation of notches in the plasmasphere is, apparently, associated with AE intensification during weak magnetic storms, while strong magnetic storms usually result in the overall reduction of plasmasphere dimensions. However, even a strong magnetic storm on April 6–7, 2000 (max K _p = 9-and min D _st ～ ?290 nT), but accompanied by an isolated AE impulse, resulted in a density decrease only in the longitudinally limited post-midnight sector of the plasmasphere.     

Electron flux variations at altitudes of 600–800 km in the second half of 2014. preliminary results of an experiment using RELEC equipment onboard the satellite <Emphasis Type="Italic">VERNOV</Emphasis>

The results of measurements of fluxes and spectra carried out using the RELEC (relativistic electrons) equipment onboard the VERNOV satellite in the second half of 2014 are presented. The VERNOV satellite was launched on July 8, 2014 in a sun-synchronous orbit with an altitude from 640 to 830 km and an inclination of 98.4°. Scientific information from the satellite was first received on July 20, 2014. The comparative analysis of electron fluxes using data from RELEC and using experimental data on the electron detection by satellites Elektro-L (positioned at a geostationary orbit) and Meteor-M no. 2 (positioned at a circular polar orbit at an altitude of about 800 km as the VERNOV satellite) will make it possible to study the spatial distribution pattern of energetic electrons in near-Earth space in more detail.     

A mechanism for generating magnetic field by vortex processes in stellar plasma

The difference in viscous properties of proton and electron gases in fully ionized hydrogen plasma is shown to result in a possibility of generation in this plasma of the magnetic field, even if initially there was no field. As an example, a simplified planar stationary model of a magnetohydrodynamic process of the eddy sink type is considered. It is demonstrated that the intensity of the generated magnetic field strongly depends on plasma temperature, so that the range T = 100000–500000 K corresponds to the range of maximum magnetic induction B = 50–2700 G. Such values are frequently observed in ordinary stars, in particular, in solar flares.     

Identification of sources of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations on the basis of proton aurora observations

The relationship between proton aurora and geomagnetic pulsations Pc1, which are an indicator of development of ion-cyclotron instability in the equatorial magnetosphere, are studied on the basis of the observations of proton aurora from the IMAGE satellite, observations of particle fluxes onboard the low-orbiting NOAA satellites, and geomagnetic pulsation observations at the Lovozero observatory. A conclusion is drawn that the subauroral spots in the proton emission projected into the magnetosphere near the plasmapause are two-dimensional images at the ionospheric “screen” of the region of intense scattering of energetic protons into the loss cone at the development of an ion-cyclotron instability.     

On the possibility of existence of an additional source of anomalous cosmic rays outside the solar system

On the basis of experimental data obtained at exposure of solid-state track detectors in the magnetosphere of the Earth during solar flares and in quiet Sun periods, an estimate of possible contribution of singly charged oxygen ions to the flare particle fluxes is made. A possibility is considered of the appearance in the vicinity of the solar system of singly ionized oxygen ions generated on stars.     

Study and comparison of the parameters of five hot flow anomalies at a bow shock front

Five hot flow anomalies (HFA) recorded by the Tail Probe of the INTERBALL satellite in 1996 are analyzed in present work. For the five chosen events the authors determined the characteristics of current sheets whose interaction with the bow shock front led to formation of an HFA, as well as the directions of external electric fields and the directions of motion of these HFAs over a shock front. The analysis of plasma convection in an HFA body is carried out; the average velocities of plasma motion in the HFA are determined in a coordinate system linked with the normal to a current layer and with the normal to the bow shock. According to the character of plasma convection in an HFA body, these five events may be divided into two types, which also differ in the direction of the motion over the front of the bow shock. In the first-type HFAs, the convection of plasma has a component directed from the intermediate region confirming its identification as a source of energy for the formation of an HFA. In the second-type HFAs, plasma motion from the intermediate region in leading and trailing parts is less expressed. This fact, as well as the great variation of peculiar velocities in the body of anomalies, allowed the assumption that second-type anomalies are nonstationary. Evidence is presented that the anomalies considered in the paper are bordered with shocks formed in solar wind passing a large-scale, decelerated body of heated plasma.     

On the relationship between quasi-biennial variations of solar activity,the heliospheric magnetic field and cosmic rays

Quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of solar activity (T ≈ 1–4 years) are considered to be a variation of basic solar activity, associated with the solar dynamo process. They are transferred into interplanetary space by the open magnetic flux of the Sun, generating QBO in the intensity of cosmic rays (CR). This paper discusses the observational characteristics of QBO in CR and their relationship with QBO on the Sun and in the interplanetary medium. The delay time of QBO in CR relative to the solar and heliospheric magnetic field suggests that the formation of QBO in the open magnetic flux of the Sun occurs within 3–5 months. The paper considers the question of the prominent periodicity of CR (T = 1.6 years) that has prevailed in CR and in the heliospheric magnetic field for more than 10 years but was not stable over 60 years of observations. Distinctions in the characteristics of QBO and long-term variations of CR suggest features of the mechanism of their formation.     

Space weather forecast: Principles of the construction and boundaries of the implementation (experience of three cycles)

All significant short-term disturbances of the near-Earth space are caused exclusively by solar flare events and regions in the solar corona with the magnetic field open into the interplanetary space (coronal holes). Flare processes occur as a consequence of the interactions of new emerging magnetic fluxes within (flares) and outside (filament ejections) the active regions with already existing magnetic fields. The observation of emerging new magnetic fluxes and the estimate of their magnitude and the emerging rate allow one to forecast solar flares and filament ejections and estimate their degree of geoeffectiveness. The main agents that visualize the propagation of disturbance from solar flares and filaments in the solar corona and the interplanetary space are coronal mass ejections, the characteristics of which ideally allow one to estimate the possible disturbance of the geomagnetic field, the possible growth of high-energy charged particle fluxes in the near-Earth space. For successful forecast of geoeffective active phenomena on the Sun and their consequences in the near-Earth space, it is necessary to know the situation on the Sun for the last 3 days taking into account the development and characteristics of the current cycle and the epoch of solar activity.