Statistical investigation of heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms

Time behavior of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters is investigated for 623 magnetic storms of the OMNI database for the period 1976–2000. The analysis is carried out by the superposed epoch technique (the magnetic storm onset time is taken to be the beginning of an epoch) for five various categories of storms induced by various types of solar wind: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). In total, the analysis conducted for “all storms” included 623 storms. The obtained data, on one hand, confirm the results obtained earlier without selecting the intervals according to the solar wind types, and, on the other hand, they indicate the existence of distinctions in the time variation of parameters for various types of solar wind. Though the lowest values of the B _z-component of IMF are observed in the MC, the lowest values of the D _st-index are achieved in the Sheath. Thus, the strongest magnetic storms are induced, on average, during the Sheath rather than during the MC body passage, probably owing to higher pressure in the Sheath. Higher values of nkT, T/T _exp, and β parameters are observed in the CIR and Sheath and lower ones in the MC, which corresponds to the physical essence of these solar wind types.     

Peculiarities of long-wave radio bursts from solar flares preceding strong geomagnetic storms

Radio bursts in the frequency range of 100–1500 kHz, recorded in 1997–2000 on the INTERBALL-1 satellite during the solar flares preceding the strong geomagnetic storms with D _st < ?100 nT, are analyzed in this paper. The observed long-wave III-type radio bursts of solar origin at frequencies of 1460 and 780 kHz were characterized by large values of the flux S _f = 10^?15 ?10^?17 W/m² Hz and duration longer than 10 min. The rapid frequency drift of a modulated radio burst continued up to a frequency of 250 kHz, which testified that the exciting agent (a beam of energetic electrons) propagated from the Sun to the Earth. All such flares were characterized by the appearance of halo coronal mass ejections, observed by the LASCO/SOHO, and by the presence of a southward B_z-component of the IMF, measured on the ACE and WIND spacecraft. In addition, shortly after radio bursts, the INTERBALL-1 satellite has recorded the fluxes of energetic electrons with E > 40 keV.     

Modeling the time behavior of the D st index during the main phase of magnetic storms generated by various types of solar wind

Results of modeling the time behavior of the D _st index at the main phase of 93 geomagnetic storms (?250 < D _st ≤ ?50 nT) caused by different types of solar wind (SW) streams: magnetic clouds (MC, 10 storms), corotating interaction regions (CIR, 31 storms), the compression region before interplanetary coronal ejections (Sheath before ICME, 21 storms), and “pistons” (Ejecta, 31 storms) are presented. The “Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during 1976–2000” (ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/) created on the basis of the OMNI database was the initial data for the analysis. The main phase of magnetic storms is approximated by a linear dependence on the main parameters of the solar wind: integral electric field sumEy, dynamic pressure P _d , and fluctuation level sB in IMF. For all types of SW, the main phase of magnetic storms is better modeled by individual values of the approximation coefficients: the correlation coefficient is high and the standard deviation between the modeled and measured values of D _st is low. The accuracy of the model in question is higher for storms from MC and is lower by a factor of ～2 for the storms from other types of SW. The version of the model with the approximation coefficients averaged over SW type describes worse variations of the measured D _st index: the correlation coefficient is the lowest for the storms caused by MC and the highest for the Sheath- and CIR-induced storms. The model accuracy is the highest for the storms caused by Ejecta and, for the storms caused by Sheath, is a factor of ～1.42 lower. Addition of corrections for the prehistory of the development of the beginning of the main phase of the magnetic storm improves modeling parameters for all types of interplanetary sources of storms: the correlation coefficient varies within the range from r = 0.81 for the storms caused by Ejecta to r = 0.85 for the storms caused by Sheath. The highest accuracy is for the storms caused by MC. It is, by a factor of ～1.5, lower for the Sheath-induced storms.     

Study of notches in the Earth’s plasmasphere based on data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">MAGION-5</Emphasis> satellite

Depleted narrow (localized in longitude) regions (field tubes) in the plasmasphere, recently discovered in He⁺ radiation measurements on the IMAGE spacecraft, were first directly observed by the Magion-5 satellite. The low-density regions (notches) occupy <～ 10–30° in longitude and extend from L ～ 2–3 to the plasmasphere boundary in neighboring plasmasphere regions with larger densities. The Magion-5 data give evidence that in the low-density regions temperature is enhanced as compared to the neighboring denser plasmasphere regions. Formation of notches in the plasmasphere is, apparently, associated with AE intensification during weak magnetic storms, while strong magnetic storms usually result in the overall reduction of plasmasphere dimensions. However, even a strong magnetic storm on April 6–7, 2000 (max K _p = 9-and min D _st ～ ?290 nT), but accompanied by an isolated AE impulse, resulted in a density decrease only in the longitudinally limited post-midnight sector of the plasmasphere.     

Statistical study of interplanetary condition effect on geomagnetic storms

Based on the archive OMNI data for the period 1976–2000 an analysis has been made of 798 geomagnetic storms with D _st < −50 nT and their interplanetary sources-large-scale types of the solar wind: CIR (145 magnetic storms), Sheath (96), magnetic clouds MC (62), and Ejecta (161). The remaining 334 magnetic storms have no well-defined sources. For the analysis, we applied the double method of superposed epoch analysis in which the instants of the magnetic storm beginning and minimum of D _st index are taken as reference times. The well-known fact that, independent of the interplanetary source type, the magnetic storm begins in 1–2 h after a southward turn of the IMF (B _z < 0) and both the end of the main phase of a storm and the beginning of its recovery phase are observed in 1–2 h after disappearance of the southward component of the IMF is confirmed. Also confirmed is the result obtained previously that the most efficient generation of magnetic storms is observed for Sheath before MC. On the average parameters B _z and E _y slightly vary between the beginning and end of the main phase of storms (minimum of D _st and D _st ^* indices), while D _st and D _st ^* indices decrease monotonically proportionally to integral of B _z and E _y over time. Such a behavior of the indices indicates that the used double method of superposed epoch analysis can be successfully applied in order to study dynamics of the parameters on the main phase of magnetic storms having different duration.     

Catalog of large-scale solar wind phenomena during 1976–2000

The main goal of this paper is to compile a catalog of large-scale phenomena in the solar wind over the observation period of 1976–2000 using the measurement data presented in the OMNI database. This work included several stages. At first the original OMNI database was supplemented by certain key parameters of the solar wind that determine the type of the solar wind stream. The following parameters belong to this group: the plasma ratio β, thermal (NkT) and kinetic (mNV ²) pressures of the solar wind, the ratio T/T _exp of measured and expected temperatures, gradients of the plasma velocity and density, and the magnetic field gradient. The results of visualization of basic plasma parameters that determine the character of the solar wind stream are presented on the website of the Space Research Institute, Moscow. Preliminary identification of basic types of the solar wind stream (FAST and SLOW streams, Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS), Corotating Interaction Region (CIR), EJECTA (or Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), Magnetic Cloud (MC), SHEATH (compression region before EJECTA/MC), rarified region RARE, and interplanetary shock wave IS) had been made with the help of a preliminary identification program using the preset threshold criteria for plasma and interplanetary magnetic field parameters. Final identification was done by comparison with the results of visual analysis of the solar wind data. In conclusion, histograms of distributions and statistical characteristics are presented for some parameters of various large-scale types of the solar wind.     

Statistical study of interplanetary condition effect on geomagnetic storms: 2. Variations of parameters

We investigate the behavior of mean values of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s (IMF) parameters and their absolute and relative variations during the magnetic storms generated by various types of the solar wind. In this paper, which is a continuation of paper [1], we, on the basis of the OMNI data archive for the period of 1976–2000, have analyzed 798 geomagnetic storms with D _st ≤ −50 nT and their interplanetary sources: corotating interaction regions CIR, compression regions Sheath before the interplanetary CMEs; magnetic clouds MC; “Pistons” Ejecta, and an uncertain type of a source. For the analysis the double superposed epoch analysis method was used, in which the instants of the magnetic storm onset and the minimum of the D _st index were taken as reference times. It is shown that the set of interplanetary sources of magnetic storms can be sub-divided into two basic groups according to their slowly and fast varying characteristics: (1) ICME (MC and Ejecta) and (2) CIR and Sheath. The mean values, the absolute and relative variations in MC and Ejecta for all parameters appeared to be either mean or lower than the mean value (the mean values of the electric field E _y and of the B _z component of IMF are higher in absolute value), while in CIR and Sheath they are higher than the mean value. High values of the relative density variation sN/〈N〉 are observed in MC. At the same time, the high values for relative variations of the velocity, B _z component, and IMF magnitude are observed in Sheath and CIR. No noticeable distinctions in the relationships between considered parameters for moderate and strong magnetic storms were observed.     

Variations of the magnetopause position versus the level of geomagnetic activity (according to data of the INTERBALL-1 Satellite for 1995–1997)

The variations in the deviation of the observed position of the magnetosphere boundary from its mean position predicted by the Shue at al., 1997 (Sh97) model [7] are studied as a function of the substorm activity level (the AE-index value) and magnetic storm intensity (the value of the corrected D _st ^* index). The results obtained make it possible to state that the amplitude of motion of the magnetospheric boundary on the dayside and in the low-latitude tail is small. It is likely that the position of the boundary is either independent of the AE and D _st ^* indices or this dependence is weak. At the same time, the boundary of the high-latitude tail shifts inward on the average by 1.5R _E with an increase of the AE-index in the case of absence of magnetic storms (contraction of the magnetospheric tail). On the contrary, in the presence of magnetic storms, this boundary shifts outward by up to 3R _E with an increase of the AE-index (inflation of the magnetospheric tail). It is also shown that the boundary of the high-latitude tail moves outward with an increase of the D _st ^* index, both at low substorm activity and in periods of high substorm activity. The amplitude of the outward motion of the high-latitude tail of the magnetosphere is by a factor of two higher for moderate magnetic storms with strong substorms than for moderate magnetic storms with weak substorms.     

Long-term variations of asymmetry of the solar magnetic field and geometry of the interplanetary magnetic field

A comparative analysis of variations of the mean solar magnetic field and the interplanetary magnetic field over all history of their measurements is performed. Asymmetry of the solar magnetic field and its manifestation in the heliosphere is investigated. Long-term variations of the solar magnetic field and the heliosphere, which manifest themselves in alternation of dominating magnetic polarities of different sign, are discovered. On the basis of the analysis of cumulative sums of the IMF components, long-term variations of the IMF geometry and of the solar wind spiral angle are found. The cumulative sum of the IMF B _z component perpendicular to the ecliptic plane also shows long-term variations. Time intervals are revealed, in which negative values of the IMF B _z component dominate, and an increased geomagnetic activity is observed.     

Families of periodic solutions in three-dimensional restricted three-body problem

Planar orbits of three-dimensional restricted circular three-body problem are considered as a special case of three-dimensional orbits, and the second-order monodromy matrices M (in coordinate z and velocity v _z ) are calculated for them. Semi-trace s of matrix M determines vertical stability of an orbit. If |s| ≤ 1, then transformation of the subspace (z, v _z ) in the neighborhood of solution for the period is reduced to deformation and a rotation through angle φ, cosφ = s. If the angle ? can be rationally expressed through 2π,φ = 2π·p/q, where p and q are integer, then a planar orbit generates the families of three-dimensional periodic solutions that have a period larger by a factor of q (second kind Poincareé periodic solutions). Directions of continuation in the subspace (z, v _z ) are determined by matrix M. If |s| < 1, we have two new families, while only one exists at resonances 1: 1 (s = 1) and 2: 1 (s = ?1). In the course of motion along the family of three-dimensional periodic solutions, a transition is possible from one family of planar solutions to another one, sometimes previously unknown family of planar solutions.     

Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

Sporadic structures and small-scale irregularity in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the period of high solar activity according to the data of radio occultation measurements on satellite-to-satellite paths

Results of the analysis of 327 sessions of radio occultation on satellite-to-satellite paths are presented. The data are taken in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the regions with latitudes of 67°–88°, and in the period of high solar activity from October 26, 2003 to November 9, 2003. Typical ionospheric changes in the amplitude and phase of decimeter radio waves on paths GPS satellites-CHAMP satellite are presented. It is demonstrated that these data make it possible to determine characteristics of the sporadic E _s structures in the lower ionosphere at heights of 75–120 km. Histograms of distribution of the lower and upper boundaries, thickness, and intensity of the E _s structures are presented. Dispersion and spectra of amplitude fluctuations of decimeter radio waves caused by small-scale irregularity of the ionospheric plasma are analyzed. The relation of the polar E _s structures and intensity of small-scale plasma irregularity to various manifestations of solar activity is discussed. The efficiency of monitoring the ionospheric disturbances caused by shock waves of the solar wind by the radio occultation method on satellite-to-satellite paths is demonstrated.     

Turbulent fluctuations of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the magnetosheath and the low-latitude boundary layer formation: Multisatellite observations on March 2, 1996

The results of simultaneous analysis of plasma and magnetic field characteristics measured on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe, WIND and Geotail satellites on March 2, 1996, are presented. During these observations the INTERBALL/Tail Probe crossed the low-latitude boundary layer, and the WIND and Geotail satellites measured the solar wind’s and magnetosheath’s parameters, respectively. The plasma and magnetic field characteristics in these regions have been compared. The data of the Corall, Electron, and MIF instruments on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe satellite are analyzed. Fluctuations of the magnetic field components and plasma velocity in the solar wind and magnetosheath, measured onboard the WIND and Geotail satellites, are compared. The causes resulting in appearance of plasma jet flows in the low-latitude boundary layer are analyzed. The amplitude of magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath for a studied magnetosphere boundary crossing is shown to exceed the magnetic field value below the magnetopause near the cusp. The possibility of local violation of pressure balance on the magnetopause is discussed, as well as penetration of magnetosheath plasma into the magnetosphere, as a result of magnetic field and plasma flux fluctuations in the magnetosheath.     

Energy dependence of the characteristic decay time of proton fluxes in solar cosmic ray events

Energetic solar proton events within the energy interval 1–48 MeV at the stage of their decay are considered over the period of 1974–2001. The dependence of the characteristic decay time on the proton energy in the assumed power-law representation τ(E) =E ^?n is analyzed for the events with an exponential decay form. The dependence of n on the heliolongitude of the flare (the particles source on the Sun) is studied.     

Solar activity index for long-term ionospheric forecasts

Based on the comparison of solar activity indices (annual average values of the relative number of sunspots Rz₁₂ and solar radio emission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm F₁₂) with the ionospheric index of solar activity IG₁₂ for 1954–2013, we have found that the index F₁₂ is a more accurate (than Rz₁₂) indicator of solar activity for the long-term forecast of foF2 (the critical frequency of the F2-layer). This advantage of the F₁₂ index becomes especially significant after 2000 if the specific features of extreme ultraviolet radiation of the Sun are additionally taken into account in the minima of solar cycles, using an appropriate correction to F₁₂. Qualitative arguments are given in favor of the use of F₁₂ for the long-term forecast of both foF2 and other ionospheric parameters.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000

Within the framework of the Space Weather program, 25-year data sets for solar X-ray observations, measurements of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the solar wind, and D _st index variations are analyzed to reveal the factors that have had the greatest influence on the development of magnetospheric storms. The correlation between solar flares and magnetic storms practically does not exceed a level of correlation for random processes. In particular, no relation was found between the importance of solar flares and the minimum of the D _st index for storms that could be connected with considered flares by their time delay. The coronal mass ejections (CME; data on these phenomena cover a small part of the interval) result in storms with D _st < –60 nT only in half of the cases. The most geoeffective interplanetary phenomena are the magnetic clouds (MC), which many believe to be interplanetary manifestations of CMEs, and compressions in the region of interaction of slow and fast streams in the solar wind (the so-called Corotating Interaction Region, CIR). They correspond to about two-thirds of all observed magnetic storms. For storms with –100 < D _st < –60 nT, the frequencies of storms from MC and CIR being approximately equal. For strong storms with D _st < – 100 nT, the fraction of storms from MC is considerably higher. The problems of reliable prediction of geomagnetic disturbances from observations of the Sun and conditions in interplanetary space are discussed.     

Observations of electromagnetic emissions inside the Earth’s plasmasphere from the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Interball-1</Emphasis> satellite

The spectrum analyzer AKR-X onboard the Interball-1 satellite at the beginning (August–October 1995) and at the end (August–October 2000) of satellite operation in perigees of its orbital motion recorded and analyzed electromagnetic emissions of the inner regions of the Earth’s plasmasphere in the frequency band 100–1500 kHz at distances of 1.1–1.8 R _E. The observations have shown that the electromagnetic modes (the Z and LO modes escaping the magnetosphere) which are formed at the altitudes 600–4000 km are associated with the subauroral nonthermal continuum and with the recently discovered kilometric continuum. There are noticeable differences in the spectral character of these emissions during the minimum (1996) and maximum (2000) solar activity, when, as a rule, the LO mode escaping the plasmaphere and the continua are not present.     

Observations of corotating solar wind structures at radio sounding by signals of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rosetta</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mars Express</Emphasis> spacecraft

In the implementation of the space projects Rosetta and Mars Express, a large-scale series of experiments has been carried out on radio sounding circumsolar plasma by decimeter (S-band) and centimeter (X-band) signals of the Rosetta comet probe (from October 3 to October 31, 2010) and the Mars Express satellite of Mars (from December 25, 2010 to March 27, 2011). It was found that in the phase of ingress the spacecraft behind the Sun, the intensity of the frequency fluctuations increases in accordance with a power function whose argument is the solar offset distance of radio ray path, and when the spacecraft is removed from the Sun (the egress phase), frequency fluctuations are reduced. Periodic strong increases in the fluctuation level, exceeding by a factor of 3–12 the background values of this value determined by the regular radial dependences, are imposed on the regular dependences. It was found that increasing the fluctuations of radio waves alternates with the periodicity m × T or n × T, where m = 1/2, n = 1, аnd T is the synodic period of the Sun’s rotation (T ≈ 27 days). It was shown that the corotating structures associated with the interaction regions of different speed fluxes are formed in the area of solar wind acceleration and at distances of 6–20 solar radii already have a quasi-stationary character.     

A method of calculation of vertical cutoff rigidity in the geomagnetic field

On the basis of generalization of the results of extensive trajectory calculations for trial charged particles moving in the geomagnetic field the method of calculation of effective vertical cutoff rigidity, taking into account the values of K _p -index and local time, is developed. The IGRF and Tsyganenko-89 models are used for the geomagnetic field. A comparison of the results of model simulations with the experimental data on penetration of charged particles into near-Earth space is made, and penetration functions for typical spacecraft orbits are calculated.     

Numerical simulation of effects of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse in the outer ionosphere

The results of a numerical simulation of such parameters of the topside ionosphere as concentration N _e and temperature T _e of electrons, and concentration n(H⁺) and fluxes along the magnetic field lines Φ(H⁺) of H⁺ ions at an altitude of ～2000 km for the conditions of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse are presented. The calculations were performed using the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere of the Earth (GSM TIP). It is shown that during the eclipse, in addition to a region of decreased values of T _e in the Northern Hemisphere and in the magnetically conjugate region in the Southern Hemisphere, regions of electron heating emerge in both hemispheres. Simultaneously, an extended region of decreased values of N _e comes into existence and moves behind the Moon’s shadow. Regions with decreased (down to ～30%) and enhanced (up to ～50%) concentrations of H⁺ ions are detected in the global distribution of these ions.