Europe's space plans and opportunities for cooperation

This is a slightly abridged and edited version of the welcoming speech made by European Commission Vice-President Günter Verheugen at the ‘Winning through co-operation: sharing the benefits of space’ conference held in Brussels on 17–18 February 2005 as part of European Space Week. The importance of space for Europe across many areas—now explicitly acknowledged by the European Commission—is highlighted. Future initiatives are discussed and the Union's approach to international cooperation is outlined. It was hoped that the conference would provide an opportunity for participants to identify the best opportunities for partnership in space.     

Gravitational Sensitivity of Solutions–Melts at the Crystallization of Two-Phase InSb–InBi Alloys under Space Conditions

Analyzing the results of space and ground-based experiments carried out in the Baikov Institute of Metallurgy and Materials Science to study the processes of the melting and crystallization of two-phase InSb–InBi alloys of an indium–antimony–bismuth (In–Sb– Bi) triple system, we have demonstrated the gravitational sensitivity of the InSb-based solution– melt. It manifests itself as a certain asymmetry of the boundary of the dissolution of the InSb ingot by the InSb–InBi melt and heterogeneity of the melt along this boundary depending on the magnitude and direction of the gravity force acceleration gin the range (1–10^–3–10^–5)g ₀, where g ₀is the acceleration of the gravity force on Earth. For the first time, it is established in the experiments under analysis that the homogeneity of melts of a complex composition with components of various densities can be reached only at magnitudes of quasistationary (residual) microaccelerations g< 10^–6 g ₀.     

Method and Results of Direct Measurement of the Interstellar Neutral Helium Abundance and Isotopic Composition

One of the important astrophysical problems is the determination of the abundance of helium isotopes ³He and ⁴He in different regions of the Universe, because this abundance can reflect its history by pointing to the intensity of various possible processes of the creation and decay of light elements. This paper describes the method and results of the determination (for the first time performed by a direct method) of the helium isotopic abundance in the local interstellar medium surrounding the Solar system. The experiment was carried out on the manned Mir space station by long-term space exposure of samples of metal foil with their subsequent recovery to the Earth and detailed laboratory mass-spectrometric analysis. As a result, we succeeded in obtaining an estimation of the ⁴He concentration (about 7.5 × 10^–3 cm^–3) and the isotopic ratio ³He/⁴He (about1.7 × 10^–4) for the local interstellar medium.     

Space station — the new frontier

The exciting challenge of building a permanent space station has been taken up by the USA, and participation in its development has been offered to the USA's allies. European countries are faced with the dilemma of whether to cooperate or to try to develop an autonomous approach. This article discusses the opportunities for Europe in participating closely in the US project — particularly in providing pressurized modules based on the Columbus programme — and argues that it is an opportunity not to be missed.     

How far – if at all – should the USA cooperate with China in space?

China has engaged in a steady, long-standing effort to build and strengthen its space capabilities, achieving progressively more ambitious milestones and staking its claim as a major space power. It is also increasingly engaging in cooperative efforts. A number of issues must be weighed, however, before the USA should consider any collaboration with it. These include the essentially military nature of China’s space program, the fact that China’s intentions in space and decision-making process are far from ‘transparent’, and the way it uses its space activities to pursue foreign policy goals. While the latter could be useful in, e.g., reducing tensions on the Korean peninsular through a space-services-for-giving-up-missiles tradeoff, and while there is scope for collaboration in space science missions, there are no compelling reasons for the USA to pursue cooperation in human spaceflight with China.     

A new paradigm for international cooperation in space exploration

In announcing a new Vision for the US space program, President George Bush committed the USA to “a long-term human and robotic program to explore the solar system”, via a return to the Moon, leading to exploration of Mars and other destinations. He also stated that other nations would be invited to join the vision. Many other nations have, or are developing, ‘exploration visions’ of their own. The potential for international cooperation therefore exists, both at the vision and program/project levels. This paper, based on Working Group discussions as part of an AIAA space cooperation workshop,¹ presents an approach for maximizing the return on all global investments in space exploration. It proposes an international coordination mechanism through which all these various national activities could be integrated into an inherently global enterprise for space exploration, a ‘virtual program of programs’. Within the context of the coordination, individual activities would utilize the full range of cooperative mechanisms for implementation. A significant benefit of this mode of conducting cooperation is that it would not require the negotiation of complex overarching international agreements as a precondition for initiating international activity.     

Rethinking public–private space travel

On May 24, 2012 SpaceX's Dragon capsule was launched and in doing so became the first commercially built vehicle to berth with and carry cargo to the International Space Station (ISS). It successfully completed its mission and returned to the Pacific Ocean on May 31, 2012.¹ The docking of Dragon represented a historic moment where a commercial enterprise managed to achieve that which had previously only been accomplished by governments. “In the history of spaceflight – only four entities have launched a space capsule into orbit and successfully brought it back to Earth: the United States, Russia, China, and SpaceX”.² While this is a monumental accomplishment for private industry, we cannot ignore the value of public–private partnerships and the role that government played in enabling this incredible achievement.In this paper I will examine how public–private partnerships are enabling the development of the commercial space industry, viewed through the lens of the Rethinking Business Institutional Hybrid Framework put forward by University of Oxford professors Marc Ventresca and Alex Nichols in their Rethinking Business MBA course. I intend to demonstrate that the NASA versus Commercial Space argument is a false dichotomy and that only by working together can both sectors continue to push the boundaries of space travel and exploration. I plan to do this by first discussing how the NASA-SpaceX partnership came about and the reasoning behind it. I will then explore what a public–private partnership (PPP) is, as compared to other government privatization schemes, and explain why Space Act Agreements are significantly different from anything done previously. I will then analyze the impact of these agreements and outline their benefits in order to demonstrate the value they create, especially in areas of mutual value creation and economic development.     

Some comments on the ESA/EU space strategy

Not only have the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Union Commission succeeded in producing a joint space strategy within the time set for it, they have created a substantial and worthwhile document which recognises the importance of space for Europe and acknowledges that ESA—not national agencies—is the right body for the conduct of Europe's space efforts. Nevertheless, the strategy's lack of any government financial commitment is a worry— Public–Private Partnerships will never be enough—as is its failure to include any thought for the long term, and in particular manned flight. This critique of the strategy argues for more government spending on space and for greater long-term vision.     

Shaping a legal framework for the commercial use of outer space: recommendations and conclusions from Project 2001

Private and commercial activity in outer space still poses challenges to space law and policy. Within ‘Project 2001’—a legal research project by the University of Cologne's Institute of Air and Space Law and the German Aerospace Center (DLR)—six international expert working groups examined international and national laws, in order to identify gaps and, where necessary, propose improvements to the present legal framework for private space activities. The results were presented and discussed at an international colloquium in May 2001 in Cologne, Germany, where final conclusions have been drawn. This report presents a summary of the project's work and main conclusions, which are documented in full in a comprehensive book to be published in May 2002.     

Forecasting space markets

Space Policy is here reprinting edited extracts from two reports — one French, one American — which aim to forecast the market for space applications and launch services over the next 10 and 15 years respectively. Euroconsult 1986 edition of The World Space Industry Survey: Ten-Year Outlook gives a country-by-country analysis of policies and programmes; an evaluation of markets for space applications and a forecast of the market for launch systems. The Report on the 1986 Outside Users Payload Model, prepared by Battelle, Columbus Division, for the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, provides an estimate of demand for launch services for payloads in a range of mission categories flown by countries outside the Soviet bloc. Using different starting points and methodologies, the two reports nevertheless draw convincingly similar conclusions.     

Results of Measurements of Accelerations of Technological Devices onboard the FotonSpacecraft

This paper generalizes the results of measuring the residual accelerations arising when investigations in space materials science are carried out onboard the unmanned Fotonspacecraft. The levels of vibroaccelerations are analyzed in the frequency band of 1–500 Hz for the technological devices UZ01, UZ04, and POLIZON, developed by the Federal Unitary State Enterprise Barmin Design Bureau of General Machine Building (V.P. Barmin KBOM). The levels of accelerations are estimated in the frequency band of 0–1 Hz in the zone of technological operations of these facilities. The basic sources of vibroaccelerations acting upon the frames of devices are determined in the capsule zone, where technological processes of producing new materials take place. In the frequency band of 1–500 Hz the vibroaccelerations are shown to be generated by the operation of Fotonspacecraft units and a drive of capsule translation during the technological process. On the capsule frame they reach the values of (1–3) × 10^–3 g. The level of linear accelerations in the infralow-frequency band is determined by rotational motions of the Fotonspacecraft. It depends on the device location with respect to the spacecraft center of mass and does not exceed (1–7) × 10^–6 gin the steady-state regime in the zone of technological activity.     

The EU's emergent space diplomacy

Science and technology (S&T) have always been at the heart of the European political construction. This started in the Cold War through a series of pan-European collaborative schemes in a panoply of different scientific fields like molecular biology and nuclear research. However, while most of these early collaborative patterns focused on intra-European cooperation, in the post-Cold War era international S&T relations have evolved to encompass a broader international dimension. The European Union is now building a diverse and robust network of cooperation with non-EU partners to become a centre of gravity in international S&T affairs. This increasing linkage between S&T and foreign policy is particularly explicit in space activities. Even though it is the newest space actor in Europe, the EU is pushing the continent to extend the scope of its partnerships with Russia and China, while at the same time modifying its relations with the traditional European partner, the USA, illustrating therefore the emergence of a distinct “EU space diplomacy”.     

Meeting the needs of the new millennium: passenger space travel and world economic growth

Without doubt, humans’ most urgent need at the start of the new millennium is the continuation of economic growth, which is the only means by which the great majority of the world population can lift themselves out of the poverty in which they live. A sine qua non for continuing economic growth is for the rich countries to continue to develop new industries—as they did throughout the 20th century, thereby creating high-productivity employment for hundreds of millions of people around the world. Arguably the most significant of these thus far is the development of passenger air travel from zero in 1900 to 1.5 billion passengers per year by 2000. It is becoming clear that passenger space travel could grow to reach a similar economic scale—and that no other space activity has comparable potential. The paper describes the potential contribution to world economic growth of passenger space travel; the failure of government space agencies either to aid its development or to make a contribution to economic growth commensurate to their cost; and the value for economic policy of prioritising the realisation of passenger space travel. The faster passenger space travel services grow, the more the space industry will contribute to “Meeting the Needs of the New Millennium”.     

Reflection Model as Applied for the Analysis of Enhancements of Solar Cosmic Rays at Different Heliocentric Distances: An Example of the Event Observed in June 1991 onboard GRANAT and ULYSSES Spacecraft

In this paper we consider a large-scale enhancement of the intensity of solar protons (E = 1–20 MeV) observed in June 1991 for 26 days at different points of interplanetary space, onboard ULYSSES (in the time period under consideration it was located at a heliocentric distance of 3 AU, at an angular distance of 70° to the East of the Sun–Earth line and 3° to the South of the ecliptic plane) and GRANAT (which was orbiting around the Earth spending most of its flight time outside the Earth's magnetosphere). An approximation is made of the complex time profile of the enhancement of the solar cosmic ray (SCR) intensity on the basis of the reflection model of their propagation in the heliosphere. It has been established that, in this event, the transport of SCR particles in the interplanetary space was mainly carried out in the traps made up by the fronts of radially moving flare disturbances. The parameters of these fronts obtained when modeling this enhancement of SCR allow one to estimate the characteristic dimensions of the regions of effective capture of SCR. Comparison of the results of approximations obtained for the data from GRANAT and ULYSSES spacecraft demonstrated an increase in the regions of capture of SCR when the radial distance from the Sun increases.     

Analysis of Low-Frequency Microaccelerations onboard the Foton-11Satellite

The method and the results of investigating the low-frequency component of microaccelerations onboard the Foton-11satellite are presented. The investigation was based on the processing of data of the angular velocity measurements made by the German system QSAM, as well as the data of measurements of microaccelerations performed by the QSAM system and by the French accelerometer BETA. The processing was carried out in the following manner. A low-frequency (frequencies less than 0.01 Hz) component was selected from the data of measurements of each component of the angular velocity vector or of the microacceleration, and an approximation was constructed of the obtained vector function by a similar function that was calculated along the solutions to the differential equations of motion of the satellite with respect to its center of mass. The construction was carried out by the least squares method. The initial conditions of the satellite motion, its aerodynamic parameters, and constant biases in the measurement data were used as fitting parameters. The time intervals on which the approximation was constructed were from one to five hours long. The processing of the measurements performed with three different instruments produced sufficiently close results. It turned out to be that the rotational motion of the satellite during nearly the entire flight was close to the regular Eulerian precession of the axially symmetric rigid body. The angular velocity of the satellite with respect to its longitudinal axis was about 1 deg/s, while the projection of the angular velocity onto the plane perpendicular to this axis had an absolute value of about 0.2 deg/s. The magnitude of the quasistatic component of microaccelerations in the locations of the accelerometers QSAM and BETA did not exceed 5 × 10^–5–10^–4m/s²for the considered motion of the satellite.     

Planetary Defense From Space: Part 2 (Simple) Asteroid Deflection Law

A system of two space bases housing missiles for an efficient Planetary Defense of the Earth from asteroids and comets was firstly proposed by this author in 2002. It was then shown that the five Lagrangian points of the Earth–Moon system lead naturally to only two unmistakable locations of these two space bases within the sphere of influence of the Earth. These locations are the two Lagrangian points L1 (in between the Earth and the Moon) and L3 (in the direction opposite to the Moon from the Earth). In fact, placing missiles based at L1 and L3 would enable the missiles to deflect the trajectory of incoming asteroids by hitting them orthogonally to their impact trajectory toward the Earth, thus maximizing the deflection at best. It was also shown that confocal conics are the only class of missile trajectories fulfilling this “best orthogonal deflection” requirement.The mathematical theory developed by the author in the years 2002–2004 was just the beginning of a more expanded research program about the Planetary Defense. In fact, while those papers developed the formal Keplerian theory of the Optimal Planetary Defense achievable from the Earth–Moon Lagrangian points L1 and L3, this paper is devoted to the proof of a simple “(small) asteroid deflection law” relating directly the following variables to each other:

(1) the speed of the arriving asteroid with respect to the Earth (known from the astrometric observations);

(2) the asteroid's size and density (also supposed to be known from astronomical observations of various types);

(3) the “security radius” of the Earth, that is, the minimal sphere around the Earth outside which we must force the asteroid to fly if we want to be safe on Earth. Typically, we assume the security radius to equal about 10,000 km from the Earth center, but this number might be changed by more refined analyses, especially in the case of “rubble pile” asteroids;

(4) the distance from the Earth of the two Lagrangian points L1 and L3 where the defense missiles are to be housed;

(5) the deflecting missile's data, namely its mass and especially its “extra-boost”, that is, the extra-energy by which the missile must hit the asteroid to achieve the requested minimal deflection outside the security radius around the Earth.

This discovery of the simple “asteroid deflection law” presented in this paper was possible because:

(1) In the vicinity of the Earth, the hyperbola of the arriving asteroid is nearly the same as its own asymptote, namely, the asteroid's hyperbola is very much like a straight line. We call this approximation the line/circle approximation. Although “rough” compared to the ordinary Keplerian theory, this approximation simplifies the mathematical problem to such an extent that two simple, final equations can be derived.

(2) The confocal missile trajectory, orthogonal to this straight line, ceases then to be an ellipse to become just a circle centered at the Earth. This fact also simplifies things greatly. Our results are thus to be regarded as a good engineering approximation, valid for a preliminary astronautical design of the missiles and bases at L1 and L3.

Still, many more sophisticated refinements would be needed for a complete Planetary Defense System:

(1) taking into account many perturbation forces of all kinds acting on both the asteroids and missiles shot from L1 and L3;

(2) adding more (non-optimal) trajectories of missiles shot from either the Lagrangian points L4 and L5 of the Earth–Moon system or from the surface of the Moon itself;

(3) encompassing the full range of missiles currently available to the USA (and possibly other countries) so as to really see “which missiles could divert which asteroids”, even just within the very simplified scheme proposed in this paper.

In summary: outlined for the first time in February 2002, our Confocal Planetary Defense concept is a simplified Keplerian Theory that already proved simple enough to catch the attention of scholars, popular writers, and representatives of the US Military. These developments would hopefully mark the beginning of a general mathematical vision for building an efficient Planetary Defense System in space and in the vicinity of the Earth, although not on the surface of the Earth itself!We must make a real progress beyond academic papers, Hollywood movies and secret military plans, before asteroids like 99942 Apophis get close enough to destroy us in 2029 or a little later.     

Doppler Detection of Gravitational Bursts Using the Earth's Satellites

We discuss the possibility of detection of low-frequency gravitational waves by means of Doppler tracking of a relatively close satellite of the Earth. A detailed analysis is performed of electromagnetic fluctuations in the space communication channel and of the instrumental noise of receiving–transmitting systems. It is shown that when certain compensating procedures are used, one can detect gravitational radiation generated in star collapses and coalescences of binaries in our Galaxy in the frequency range from 2 × 10^–3 to 5 × 10^–1 Hz and with a metric variation amplitude of 10^–15 and higher.     

Priorities in space for the USA

This article follows the story of Shuttle development, in the context of the history of the US space programme from Apollo to the Space Station. The Shuttle was chosen as one of a series of ‘space spectaculars’ and has proven to be prohibitively expensive and unreliable, practical only for a very limited number of specialized missions. The Space Station, too, cannot be economically supplied, even if the USA could afford to build it. The author concludes that NASA should cancel the Space Station and the replacement orbiter for Challenger, and engage on a major programme of launch vehicle development, independent of the US military. The aim should be a dramatic reduction of launch vehicle costs, making spaceflight practical, and a truly independent NASA which could restore the USA to space preeminence.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar,Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances, 1976–2000: 3

In this paper we continue the analysis of the influence of solar and interplanetary events on magnetic storms of the Earth that was started in [9, 10]. Different experimental results on solar-terrestrial physics are analyzed in the study and the effects are determined that arise due to differences in the methods used to analyze the data. The classifications of magnetic storms by the K _p and D _st indices, the solar flare classifications by optical and X-ray observations, and the classifications of different geoeffective interplanetary events are compared and discussed. It is demonstrated that quantitative estimations of the relationships between two types of events often depend on the direction in which the events are compared. In particular, it was demonstrated that the geoeffectiveness of halo CMEs (that is, the percentage of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections that result in geomagnetic storms) is 40–50%. Higher values given in some papers were obtained by another method, in which they were defined as the probability of finding candidates for a source of geomagnetic storms among CMEs, and, strictly speaking, these values are not true estimates of the geoeffectiveness. The latter results are also in contrast with the results of the two-stage tracing of the events: first a storm—an interplanetary disturbance, and then an interplanetary disturbance—a CME.     

Simultaneous Response of the Mid-Latitude Ionosphere to a Sudden Commencement of Strong Magnetic Storms

Using the new technology of global GPS detection of ionospheric disturbances (GLOBDET), it is found that a sharp increase of the time derivative of the magnetic field strength during magnetic storms is accompanied by a simultaneous decrease of the mid-latitude total electron content (TEC) over the entire dayside of the globe. The corresponding negative correlation coefficient is no less than 0.8, and the delay relative to the sudden commencement of magnetic storm is about 3–10 min. The effect is especially clearly pronounced for magnetic storms with sudden commencements (SSC). The analysis is carried out for a set of 90 to 300 GPS stations for 10 days (January 6 and April 23, 1998; April 6, June 8, July 13, 14, and 15, 2000; March 31, April 4 and 11, 2001) with various levels of geomagnetic activity (D _st and K _p varied from –6 to –295 nT and from 0 to 9, respectively). The amplitude of the response in the total electron content for the events considered was 0.1–0.4 × 10¹⁶ m^–2 (which is a deviation of 0.2–2.6% from the TEC background value). The velocity of the disturbance motion from the dayside to the nightside was about 10–20 km/s. The results obtained agree with the data of ionospheric parameter measurements conducted earlier by methods with high temporal resolution.