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1.
We present a combined analysis of the applications of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (denoted as WGM in Korsós et al. (2015)) method and the magnetic helicity tool (Berger and Field, 1984) employed for three active regions (ARs), namely NOAA AR 11261, AR 11283 and AR 11429. We analysed the time series of photospheric data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory taken between August 2011 and March 2012. During this period the three ARs produced a series of flares (eight M- and six X-class) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). AR 11261 had four M-class flares and one of them was accompanied by a fast CME. AR 11283 had similar activities with two M- and two X-class flares, but only with a slow CME. Finally, AR 11429 was the most powerful of the three ARs as it hosted five compact and large solar flare and CME eruptions. For applying the WGM method we employed the Debrecen sunspot data catalogue, and, for estimating the magnetic helicity at photospheric level we used the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP’s) vector magnetograms from SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager). We followed the evolution of the components of the WGM and the magnetic helicity before the flare and CME occurrences. We found a unique and mutually shared behaviour, called the U-shaped pattern, of the weighted distance component of WGM and of the shearing component of the helicity flux before the flare and CME eruptions. This common pattern is associated with the decreasing-receding phases yet reported only known to be a necessary feature prior to solar flare eruption(s) but found now at the same time in the evolution of the shearing helicity flux. This result leads to the conclusions that (i) the shearing motion of photospheric magnetic field may be a key driver for solar eruption in addition to the flux emerging process, and that (ii) the found decreasing-approaching pattern in the evolution of shearing helicity flux may be another precursor indicator for improving the forecasting of solar eruptions.  相似文献   

2.
The interface between the bright solar surface and the million-degree corona continues to hold the key to many unsolved problems in solar physics. Advances in instrumentation now allow us to observe the dynamic structures of the solar chromosphere down to less than 0.1 with cadences of just a few seconds and in multiple polarisation states. Such observational progress has been matched by the ever-increasing sophistication of numerical models, which have become necessary to interpret the complex observations. With an emphasis on the quiet Sun, I will review recent progress in the observation and modelling of the chromosphere. Models have come a long way from 1D static atmospheres, but their predictions still fail to reproduce several key observed features. Nevertheless, they have given us invaluable insight into the physical processes that energise the atmosphere. With more physics being added to models, the gap between predictions and observations is narrowing. With the next generation of solar observatories just around the corner, the big question is: will they close the gap?  相似文献   

3.
Solar prominences are magnetic structures incarcerating cool and dense gas in an otherwise hot solar corona. Prominences can be categorized as quiescent and active. Their origin and the presence of cool gas (104?K) within the hot (106K) solar corona remains poorly understood. The structure and dynamics of solar prominences was investigated in a large number of observational and theoretical (both analytical and numerical) studies. In this paper, an analytic model of quiescent solar prominence is developed and used to demonstrate that the prominence velocity increases exponentially, which means that some gas falls downward towards the solar surface, and that Alfvén waves are naturally present in the solar prominences. These theoretical predictions are consistent with the current observational data of solar quiescent prominences.  相似文献   

4.
We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (WGM), introduced in Korsós et al., 2015, for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue. To demonstrate the power of investigative capabilities of the WGM method, in terms of flare and CME eruptions, we studied two typical ARs, namely, AR 12158 and AR 12192. The choice of ARs represent canonical cases. AR 12158 produced an X1.6 flare with fast “halo” CME (vlinear = 1267 kms-1) while in AR 12192 there occurred a range of powerful X-class eruptions, i.e. X1.1, X1.6, X3.1, X1.0, X2.0 and X2.0-class energetic flares, interestingly, none with an accompanying CME. The value itself and temporal variation of WGM is found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the intensity of the expected flare class. Furthermore, we have also estimated the flare onset time from the relationship of duration of converging and diverging motions of the area-weighted barycenters of two subgroups of opposite magnetic polarities. This test turns out not only to provide information about the intensity of the expected flare-class and the flare onset time but may also indicate whether a flare will occur with/without fast CME. We have also found that, in the case when the negative polarity barycenter has moved around and the positive one “remained” at the same coordinates preceding eruption, the flare occurred with fast “halo” CME. Otherwise, when both the negative and the positive polarity barycenters have moved around, the AR produced flares without CME. If these properties found for the movement of the barycenters are generic pre-cursors of CME eruption (or lack of it), identifying them may serve as an excellent pre-condition for refining the forecast of the lift-off of CMEs.  相似文献   

5.
In this work, we study the short term flaring activity from the high synchrotron peaked blazar Mrk 501 detected by the FACT and H.E.S.S. telescopes in the energy range 2–20 TeV during June 23–24, 2014 (MJD 56831.86–56831.94). We revisit this major TeV flare of the source in the context of near simultaneous multi-wavelength observations of γ–rays in MeV-GeV regime with Fermi-LAT, soft X-rays in 0.3–10 keV range with Swift-XRT, hard X-rays in 10–20 keV and 15–50 keV bands with MAXI and Swift-BAT respectively, UV-Optical with Swift-UVOT and 15 GHz radio with OVRO telescope. We have performed a detailed temporal and spectral analysis of the data from Fermi-LAT, Swift-XRT and Swift-UVOT during the period June 15–30, 2014 (MJD 56823–56838). Near simultaneous archival data available from Swift-BAT, MAXI and OVRO telescope along with the V-band optical polarization measurements from SPOL observatory are also used in the study of giant TeV flare of Mrk 501 detected by the FACT and H.E.S.S. telescopes. No significant change in the multi-wavelength emission from radio to high energy γ–rays during the TeV flaring activity of Mrk 501 is observed except variation in soft X-rays. The varying soft X-ray emission is found to be correlated with the γ–ray emission at TeV energies during the flaring activity of the source. The soft X-ray photon spectral index is observed to be anti-correlated with the integral flux showing harder-when-brighter behavior. An average value of 4.5% for V-band optical polarization is obtained during the above period whereas the corresponding electric vector position angle changes significantly. We have used the minimum variability timescale from the H.E.S.S. observations to estimate the Doppler factor of the emission region which is found to be consistent with the previous studies of the source.  相似文献   

6.
7.
For the first time, empirical model of daytime vertical E×B drift based on Empirical Orthogonal functions (EOF) decomposition technique is presented. Day-to-day variability of E×B drift inferred from horizontal (H) geomagnetic field data around dip latitude for the period of 2008–2013 is used to both develop and validate the model. Results show that the EOF technique is promising with modelled values and data giving correlation coefficient values of at least 0.90 for geomagnetic conditions of both Kp?3 and Kp>3 within 2008–2013. Independent model validation shows that in situ E×B values from ion velocity meter (IVM) instrument on-board C/NOFS satellite are closer to model E×B estimates than the climatological Scherliess-Fejer (SF) model incorporated within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI).  相似文献   

8.
This study aims to investigate solar radiation pressure acting on the spherical geodetic satellites, Ajisai, LAGEOS-1, and LAGEOS-2. The solar radiation pressure coefficients (CR) are derived in two independent ways: (a) through precise orbit determination (POD) using satellite laser ranging (SLR) data, and (b) through modeling using the optical properties of the satellite surface material. The average CR value of Ajisai (1.039), as calculated from the time series of CR POD estimates every 15?days, is consistently smaller than those of LAGEOS-1 (1.140) and LAGEOS-2 (1.103). This difference can be explained by the fact that the surface of Ajisai is mostly covered by mirrors. The Ajisai CR values estimated by POD show remarkable semi-annual variation, which disagrees with the results of a previous study (Sengoku et al., 1995) predicting that the CR of Ajisai varies almost annually. We attribute this semi-annual variation to two physical reasons: the non-spherical additional cross-sectional area due to the “attached fitting ring” and the low reflectivity of the surface material in the polar regions. Furthermore, the solar radiation pressure acting on Ajisai varies annually in a direction perpendicular to the sun-satellite vector. Finally, the two independent CR values of Ajisai agree more when we assume a total solar irradiance of 1361?W/m2, whereas the value 1367?W/m2 has been commonly used in POD.  相似文献   

9.
We study the effects of space weather on the ionosphere and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites’ orbital trajectory in equatorial, low- and mid-latitude (EQL, LLT and MLT) regions during (and around) the notable storms of October/November, 2003. We briefly review space weather effects on the thermosphere and ionosphere to demonstrate that such effects are also latitude-dependent and well established. Following the review we simulate the trend in variation of satellite’s orbital radius (r), mean height (h) and orbit decay rate (ODR) during 15 October–14 November 2003 in EQL, LLT and MLT. Nominal atmospheric drag on LEO satellite is usually enhanced by space weather or solar-induced variations in thermospheric temperature and density profile. To separate nominal orbit decay from solar-induced accelerated orbit decay, we compute r,h and ODR in three regimes viz. (i) excluding solar indices (or effect), where r=r0,h=h0 and ODR=ODR0 (ii) with mean value of solar indices for the interval, where r=rm,h=hm and ODR=ODRm and (iii) with actual daily values of solar indices for the interval (r,h and ODR). For a typical LEO satellite at h?=?450?km, we show that the total decay in r during the period is about 4.20?km, 3.90?km and 3.20?km in EQL, LLT and MLT respectively; the respective nominal decay (r0) is 0.40?km, 0.34?km and 0.22?km, while solar-induced orbital decay (rm) is about 3.80?km, 3.55?km and 2.95?km. h also varied in like manner. The respective nominal ODR0 is about 13.5?m/day, 11.2?m/day and 7.2?m/day, while solar-induced ODRm is about 124.3?m/day, 116.9?m/day and 97.3?m/day. We also show that severe geomagnetic storms can increase ODR by up to 117% (from daily mean value). However, the extent of space weather effects on LEO Satellite’s trajectory significantly depends on the ballistic co-efficient and orbit of the satellite, and phase of solar cycles, intensity and duration of driving (or influencing) solar event.  相似文献   

10.
The solar dipole moment at activity minimum is a good predictor of the strength of the subsequent solar cycle. Through a systematic analysis using a state-of-the-art 2×2D solar dynamo model, we found that bipolar magnetic regions (BMR) with atypical characteristics can modify the strength of the next cycle via their impact on the buildup of the dipole moment as a sunspot cycle unfolds. In addition to summarizing these results, we present further effects of such “rogue” BMRs. These have the ability to generate hemispheric asymmetry in the subsequent sunspot cycle, since they modify the polar cap flux asymmetry of the ongoing cycle. We found strong correlation between the polar cap flux asymmetry of cycle i and the total pseudo sunspot number asymmetry of cycle i+1. Good correlation also appears in the case of the time lag of the hemispheres of cycle i+1.  相似文献   

11.
The Galactic transient black hole candidate H 1743–322 exhibited a long duration outburst in 2003 after more than two and a half decades of inactivity. The 2003 event was extensively studied in multi-wavelength bands by many groups. The striking feature is that the total energy released is extremely high as compared to that in tens of outbursts which followed. In this paper, we look at this event and study both the spectral and temporal properties of the source using two component advective flow (TCAF) paradigm. We extract accretion flow parameters for each observation from spectral properties of the decay phase and determine the mass of the black hole. We computed the energy released during all the known outbursts since 2003 and showed that on an average, the energy release in an outburst is proportional to the duration of the quiescent state just prior to it, with the exception of the 2004 outburst. A constant rate of supply of matter from the companion cannot explain the energy release in 2004 outburst. However, if the energy release of 2003 is incomplete and the leftover is released in 2004, then the companion’s rate of matter supply can be constant since 1977 till date. We believe that erratic behaviour of viscosity at the accumulation radius Xp of matter as well as location the Xp itself, rather than the random variation of mass transfer rate from the companion, could be responsible for non-uniformity in outburst pattern. We discuss several factors on which the waiting time and duration of the next outburst could depend.  相似文献   

12.
The Atacama Large Millimeter-Submillimeter Array (ALMA) has opened a new window for studying the Sun via high-resolution high-sensitivity imaging at millimeter wavelengths. In this contribution I review the capabilities of the instrument for solar observing and describe the extensive effort taken to bring the possibility of solar observing with ALMA to the scientific community. The first solar ALMA observations were carried out during 2014 and 2015 in two ALMA bands, Band 3 (λ=3?mm) and Band 6 (λ=1.3?mm), in single-dish and interferometric modes, using single pointing and mosaicing observing techniques, with spatial resolution up to 2″ and 1″ in the two bands, respectively. I overview several recently published studies which made use of the first solar ALMA observations, describe current status of solar observing with ALMA and briefly discuss the future capabilities of the instrument.  相似文献   

13.
We investigate the conditions under which the fluting (m=2), m=3, and m=12 magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes in a uniformly twisted flux tube moving along its axis become unstable in order to model the Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability in a twisting solar coronal hole jet near the northern pole of the Sun. We employed the dispersion relations of MHD modes derived from the linearized MHD equations. We assumed real wavenumbers and complex angular wave frequencies, namely complex wave phse velocities. The dispersion relations were solved numerically at fixed input parameters (taken from observational data) and varying degrees of torsion of the internal magnetic field. It is shown that the stability of the modes depends upon five parameters: the density contrast between the flux tube and its environment, the ratio of the external and internal axial magnetic fields, the twist of the magnetic field lines inside the tube, the ratio of transverse and axial jet’s velocities, and the value of the Alfvén Mach number (the ratio of the tube axial velocity to Alfvén speed inside the flux tube). Using a twisting jet of 2010 August 21 by SDO/AIA and other observations of coronal jets we set the parameters of our theoretical model and have obtained that in a twisted magnetic flux tube of radius of 9.8 Mm, at a density contrast of 0.474 and fixed Alfvén Mach number of ?0.76, for the three MHD modes there exist instability windows whose width crucially depends upon the internal magnetic field twist. It is found that for the considered modes an azimuthal magnetic field of 1.31.4 G (computed at the tube boundary) makes the width of the instability windows equal to zero, that is, it suppress the KH instability onset. On the other hand, the times for developing KH instability of the m=12 MHD mode at instability wavelengths between 15 and 12 Mm turn out to be in the range of 1.94.7 min that is in agreement with the growth rates estimated from the temporal evolution of the observed unstable jet’s blobs in their initial stage.  相似文献   

14.
This paper presents the results of a numerical evaluation of the natural lifetime reduction in low Earth orbit, due to dynamical perturbations. The study considers two values for the area-to-mass ratio, a nominal ratio which resembles a typical value of spacecraft in orbit today, and an enhanced ratio which covers the surface augmentation. The results were obtained with two orbit propagators, one of a semi-analytical nature and the second one using non-averaged equations of motion. The simulations for both propagators were set up similarly to allow comparison. They both use the solar radiation pressure and the secular terms of the geopotential (J2,J4 and J6). The atmospheric drag was turned on and off in both propagators to alternatively study the eccentricity build up and the residual lifetime. The non-averaging case also covers a validation with the full 6?×?6 geopotential. The results confirm the findings in previous publications, that is, the possibility for de-orbiting from altitudes above the residual atmosphere if a solar sail is deployed at the end-of-life, due to the combined effect of solar radiation pressure and the oblateness of the Earth. At near polar inclinations, shadowing effects can be exploited to the same end. The results obtained with the full, non-averaging propagator revealed additional de-orbiting corridors associated with solar radiation pressure which were not found by previous work on space debris mitigation. The results of both tools are compared for specific initial conditions. For nominal values of area-to-mass ratio, instead, it is confirmed that this resonance effect is negligible.The paper then puts the findings in the perspective of the current satellite catalogue. It identifies space missions which are currently close to a resonance corridor and shows the orbit evolution within the resonances with a significantly shorter residual orbital lifetime. The paper finishes with a discussion on the exploitation of these effects with regards to the long-term simulation of the space debris environment and a flux and collision probability comparison.  相似文献   

15.
We present and discuss here the observations of a small long duration GOES B-class flare associated with a quiescent filament eruption, a global EUV wave and a CME on 2011 May 11. The event was well observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), GONG Hα, STEREO and Culgoora spectrograph. As the filament erupted, ahead of the filament we observed the propagation of EIT wave fronts, as well as two flare ribbons on both sides of the polarity inversion line (PIL) on the solar surface. The observations show the co-existence of two types of EUV waves, i.e., a fast and a slow one. A type II radio burst with up to the third harmonic component was also associated with this event. The evolution of photospheric magnetic field showed flux emergence and cancellation at the filament site before its eruption.  相似文献   

16.
The Global Positioning System (GPS) has been applied in meteorology to monitor the change of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) in atmosphere, transformed from Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). A key factor in converting the ZWD into the PWV is the weighted mean temperature (Tm), which has a direct impact on the accuracy of the transformation. A number of Bevis-type models, like Tm-Ts and Tm-Ts,Ps type models, have been developed by statistics approaches, and are not able to clearly depict the relationship between Tm and the surface temperature, Ts. A new model for Tm, called weighted mean temperature norm model (abbreviated as norm model), is derived as a function of Ts, the lapse rate of temperature, δ, the tropopause height, htrop, and the radiosonde station height, hs. It is found that Tm is better related to Ts through an intermediate temperature. The small effects of lapse rate can be ignored and the tropopause height be obtained from an empirical model. Then the norm model is reduced to a simplified form, which causes fewer loss of accuracy and needs two inputs, Ts and hs. In site-specific fittings, the norm model performs much better, with RMS values reduced averagely by 0.45 K and the Mean of Absolute Differences (MAD) values by 0.2 K. The norm model is also found more appropriate than the linear models to fit Tm in a large area, not only with the RMS value reduced from 4.3 K to 3.80 K, correlation coefficient R2 increased from 0.84 to 0.88, and MAD decreased from 3.24 K to 2.90 K, but also with the distribution of simplified model values to be more reasonable. The RMS and MAD values of the differences between reference and computed PWVs are reduced by on average 16.3% and 14.27%, respectively, when using the new norm models instead of the linear model.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper parallel flow velocity shear Kelvin-Helmholtz instability has been studied in two different extended regions of the inner magnetosphere of Saturn. The method of the characteristic solution and kinetic approach has been used in the mathematical calculation of dispersion relation and growth rate of K-H waves. Effect of magnetic field (B), inhomogeneity (P/a), velocity shear scale length (Ai), temperature anisotropy (T/T||), electric field (E), ratio of electron to ion temperature (Te/Ti), density gradient (εnρi) and angle of propagation (θ) on the dimensionless growth rate of K-H waves in the inner magnetosphere of Saturn has been observed with respect to kρi. Calculations of this theoretical analysis have been done taking the data from the Cassini in the inner magnetosphere of Saturn in the two extended regions of Rs ~4.60–4.01 and Rs ~4.82–5.0. In our study velocity shear, temperature anisotropy and magnitude of the electric field are observed to be the major sources of free energy for the K-H instability in both the regions considered. The inhomogeneity of electric field, electron-ion temperature ratio, and density gradient have been observed playing stabilizing effect on K-H instability. This study also indicates the effect of the vicinity of icy moon Enceladus on the growth of K-H instability.  相似文献   

18.
The precise modeling and knowledge of non-gravitational forces acting on satellites is of big interest to many scientific tasks and missions. Since 2002, the twin GRACE satellites have measured these forces in a low Earth orbit with highly precise accelerometers, for about 15?years. Besides the significance for the GRACE mission, these measurement data allow the evaluation of modeling approaches and the improvement of force models. Unfortunately, before any scientific usage, the accelerometer measurements need to be calibrated, namely scale factor and bias have to be regularly estimated.In this study we demonstrate an accelerometer calibration approach, solely based on high precision non-gravitational force modeling without any use of empirically or stochastically estimated parameters, using our in-house developed satellite simulation tool XHPS. The aim of this work is twofold, first we use the accelerometer data and the residuals resulting from the calibration to quantitatively analyze and validate different non-gravitational force model approaches. In a second step, we compare the calibration results to three different calibration methods from different authors, based on gravity field recovery, GPS-based precise orbit determination, and based on modeled accelerations.We consider atmospheric drag forces and winds, as well as radiation forces due to solar radiation pressure, albedo, Earth infrared and thermal radiation (TRP) of the satellite itself. For TRP, we investigate different transient temperature calculation approaches for the satellite surfaces with absorbed power from the aforementioned radiation sources. A detailed finite element model of the satellite is utilized for every force, considering orientation, material properties and shadowing conditions for each element.For cross-track and radial direction, which are mainly affected by the radiative forces, our calibration residuals are quite small when drag is not super dominant (1–3?nm/s2 for total accelerations around ±50?nm/s2). For these directions the calibration seems to perform better than the other compared methods, where some bigger differences were found. For the drag dominated along-track direction it is vice versa, here our method is not sensitive enough because the difference between modeled and measured drag is bigger (e.g. residuals around 10?nm/s2 for total accelerations around ±70?nm/s2 for low solar activity). In along-track direction the orbit determination based methods are more sensitive and produce more reliable results. Results for the complete GRACE mission time span from 2003 to 2017 are shown, covering different seasonal environmental conditions.  相似文献   

19.
We have developed a new approach towards a new database of the ionospheric parameter foF2. This parameter, being the frequency of the maximum of the ionospheric electronic density profile and its main modeller, is of great interest not only in atmospheric studies but also in the realm of radio propagation. The current databases, generated by CCIR (Committee Consultative for Ionospheric Radiowave propagation) and URSI (International Union of Radio Science), and used by the IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model, are based on Fourier expansions and have been built in the 60s from the available ionosondes at that time. The main goal of this work is to upgrade the databases by using new available ionosonde data. To this end we used the IRI diurnal/spherical expansions to represent the foF2 variability, and computed its coefficients by means of a genetic algorithm (GA). In order to test the performance of the proposed methodology, we applied it to the South American region with data obtained by RAPEAS (Red Argentina para el Estudio de la Atmósfera Superior, i.e. Argentine Network for the Study of the Upper Atmosphere) during the years 1958–2009. The new GA coefficients provide a global better fit of the IRI model to the observed foF2 than the CCIR coefficients. Since the same formulae and the same number of coefficients were used, the overall integrity of IRI’s typical ionospheric feature representation was preserved. The best improvements with respect to CCIR are obtained at low solar activities, at large (in absolute value) modip latitudes, and at night-time. The new method is flexible in the sense that can be applied either globally or regionally. It is also very easy to recompute the coefficients when new data is available. The computation of a third set of coefficients corresponding to days of medium solar activity in order to avoid the interpolation between low and high activities is suggested. The same procedure as for foF2 can be perfomed to obtain the ionospheric parameter M(3000)F2.  相似文献   

20.
This study reports on observations of large-scale atmospheric gravity waves/traveling ionospheric disturbances (AGWs/TIDs) using Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) and Fabry–Perot Interferometer’s (FPI’s) intensity of oxygen red line emission at 630?nm measurements over Svalbard on the night of 6 January 2014. TEC large-scale TIDs have primary periods ranging between 29 and 65?min and propagate at a mean horizontal velocity of 749–761?m/s with azimuth of 345–347° (which corresponds to poleward propagation direction). On the other hand, FPI large-scale AGWs have larger periods of 42–142?min. These large-scale AGWs/TIDs were linked to enhanced auroral activity identified from co-located all-sky camera and IMAGE magnetometers. Similar periods, speed and poleward propagation were found for the all-sky camera (60–97?min and 823?m/s) and the IMAGE magnetometers (32–53?min and 708?m/s) observations. Joule heating or/and particle precipitation as a result of auroral energy injection were identified as likely generation mechanisms for these disturbances.  相似文献   

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