Simultaneous Response of the Mid-Latitude Ionosphere to a Sudden Commencement of Strong Magnetic Storms

Using the new technology of global GPS detection of ionospheric disturbances (GLOBDET), it is found that a sharp increase of the time derivative of the magnetic field strength during magnetic storms is accompanied by a simultaneous decrease of the mid-latitude total electron content (TEC) over the entire dayside of the globe. The corresponding negative correlation coefficient is no less than 0.8, and the delay relative to the sudden commencement of magnetic storm is about 3–10 min. The effect is especially clearly pronounced for magnetic storms with sudden commencements (SSC). The analysis is carried out for a set of 90 to 300 GPS stations for 10 days (January 6 and April 23, 1998; April 6, June 8, July 13, 14, and 15, 2000; March 31, April 4 and 11, 2001) with various levels of geomagnetic activity (D _st and K _p varied from –6 to –295 nT and from 0 to 9, respectively). The amplitude of the response in the total electron content for the events considered was 0.1–0.4 × 10¹⁶ m^–2 (which is a deviation of 0.2–2.6% from the TEC background value). The velocity of the disturbance motion from the dayside to the nightside was about 10–20 km/s. The results obtained agree with the data of ionospheric parameter measurements conducted earlier by methods with high temporal resolution.     

Planetary waves according to simultaneous observations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">GPS</Emphasis> satellites and ground-based magnetic stations

On the basis of measurements made at Japanese magnetic stations and using GPS satellites for the 12 months of 2003, a comparison of simultaneous variations of three components of the magnetic field and total electron content (TEC) was carried out in the range of the planetary waves period. The correlation analysis has shown that almost synchronous variations exist within this range of periods at the ground-based magnetometer stations and in the TEC measurements both during strong magnetic disturbances and in quiet periods. The strong magnetic disturbances could be considered as a possible independent source of ionospheric variations within the planetary waves range, while the accompanying ionospheric storms could be a possible factor changing the conductivity of the lower ionosphere plasma. In quiet periods, the correlation of magnetic variations and disturbances in TEC is caused by the direct impact of atmospheric planetary waves on the lower ionosphere and can be related to variations of ionospheric currents due to the dynamo mechanism.     

Magnetic Storms in October 2003

Preliminary results of an analysis of satellite and ground-based measurements during extremely strong magnetic storms at the end of October 2003 are presented, including some numerical modeling. The geosynchronous satellites Ekspress-A2and Ekspress-A3, and the low-altitude polar satellites Coronas-F and Meteor-3M carried out measurements of charged particles (electrons, protons, and ions) of solar and magnetospheric origin in a wide energy range. Disturbances of the geomagnetic field caused by extremely high activity on the Sun were studied at more than twenty magnetic stations from Lovozero (Murmansk region) to Tixie (Sakha-Yakutia). Unique data on the dynamics of the ionosphere, riometric absorption, geomagnetic pulsations, and aurora observations at mid-latitudes are obtained.     

Solar wind inhomogeneity front inclination effect on properties of front-caused long-period geomagnetic pulsations

On the basis of data of two networks of Canadian stations and also of extra- and intra-magnetospheric satellites, daytime long-period geomagnetic pulsations related to sudden impulses of the dynamic pressure of the solar wind (SW) are studied. The influence of SW parameters, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and geomagnetic activity on the propagation direction, polarization, and amplitude of pulsations is discussed. It is shown that at arrival front of the solar wind inhomogeneity at the place of its tangency, surface oscillations within the range of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations are excited on the magnetopause, and they run away from the tangency point to the nighttime side with increasing amplitude and opposite polarization. The pulsation properties and the position of the running-away point are explained by the mechanism of their excitation on the magnetopause by the inclined front of the inhomogeneity and also by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. Increases in SW density observed ahead of the shock front were able to cause pulsation excitation onsets prior to the sudden storms commencement (SSC) front arrival. The observed increase in geomagnetic activity after SSC could change the direction of pulsation propagation from anti-sunward to sunward. The analysis of oscillation spectra made it possible to assume that pulsations with a frequency of the order of 2.5 mHz are of a global character, they are not related to oscillations in SW and are excited by sharp SSC fronts.     

自适应滤波在磁暴期间地磁导航中的应用

对磁暴期间巡航导弹巡航段的地磁导航问题进行了讨论。针对地磁导航在磁暴期间常规卡尔曼滤波容易发散的问题,提出了一种基于Sage\|Husa自适应卡尔曼滤波的地磁导航算法。算法根据新息的变化自适应调整测量噪声矩阵,消除了磁暴影响,提高了滤波稳定性。仿真表明在选择合适的遗忘因子基础上,即使在磁暴最剧烈的时间段,采用自适应卡尔曼滤波仍能保证一定的精度,定位精度在200m以内,满足巡航导弹中程制导的精度要求。     

Storm deviations of the geomagnetic trap core from dipole configuration deduced from data on relativistic electrons

Satellite data on the position of maximum L _m of the belt of relativistic electrons during strong storms, obtained at low altitudes (∼500 km) and at high altitudes (near the geomagnetic equator plane), are compared (L is the McIlwain parameter). Both at low and high altitudes the maximum of the storm belt of relativistic electrons is formed on the outer edge of the ring current. It is shown that the geomagnetic field can substantially deviate from dipole configuration not only at the geomagnetic trap periphery, but at its core as well (at L ∼ 2.5–3.5), and these deviations are nonlinear. Simultaneous measurements of the fluxes of relativistic electrons at low and high altitudes can serve for estimation of the real shape of magnetic field lines at L < 4 during geomagnetic disturbances.     

不同磁暴条件下GEO卫星表面充电电位分布

文章利用1989-2004年间"Los Alamos"7 颗地球同步轨道卫星的数据对不同磁暴条件下处于地球同步轨道高度等离子体片区域的卫星表面充电电位和热电子(0.03~45 keV)温度随地方时的分布及随磁暴发生时间的变化规律进行统计分析.根据对磁层顶电流修正后的Dst指数(Dst*)将磁暴分成弱磁暴、强磁暴以及超大磁暴.在随地方时的分布上,弱磁暴时卫星最可能在午夜后侧负向强充电(＞800 V);随着磁暴强度的增加,在超大磁暴情况下该区域会沿东西方向扩展到夜晚21时到凌晨4时的区域.在随磁暴发生时间的分布上,弱磁暴下卫星表面充电到高负电位主要发生在Dst*最低点前3 h和后2 h的时刻,强磁暴下主要发生在Dst*最低点时刻,而超大磁暴下主要发生在恢复相,持续时间达十几个小时.表面电位的分布规律和热电子温度的分布规律表现一致:卫星表面负电位超过100 V的区域主要集中在热电子温度大于2 keV的区域,而表面负电位最可能超过800 V的区域主要集中在热电子温度大于2.5 keV的区域.通过统计分析看出,对于那些极可能发生高负电位充电(＞8 kV)情况下的卫星表面电位分布与磁暴的强弱并无明显的相关性,但发现在弱磁暴情况下明显集中在正午前侧区域.     

Modeling the time behavior of the D st index during the main phase of magnetic storms generated by various types of solar wind

Results of modeling the time behavior of the D _st index at the main phase of 93 geomagnetic storms (?250 < D _st ≤ ?50 nT) caused by different types of solar wind (SW) streams: magnetic clouds (MC, 10 storms), corotating interaction regions (CIR, 31 storms), the compression region before interplanetary coronal ejections (Sheath before ICME, 21 storms), and “pistons” (Ejecta, 31 storms) are presented. The “Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during 1976–2000” (ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/) created on the basis of the OMNI database was the initial data for the analysis. The main phase of magnetic storms is approximated by a linear dependence on the main parameters of the solar wind: integral electric field sumEy, dynamic pressure P _d , and fluctuation level sB in IMF. For all types of SW, the main phase of magnetic storms is better modeled by individual values of the approximation coefficients: the correlation coefficient is high and the standard deviation between the modeled and measured values of D _st is low. The accuracy of the model in question is higher for storms from MC and is lower by a factor of ～2 for the storms from other types of SW. The version of the model with the approximation coefficients averaged over SW type describes worse variations of the measured D _st index: the correlation coefficient is the lowest for the storms caused by MC and the highest for the Sheath- and CIR-induced storms. The model accuracy is the highest for the storms caused by Ejecta and, for the storms caused by Sheath, is a factor of ～1.42 lower. Addition of corrections for the prehistory of the development of the beginning of the main phase of the magnetic storm improves modeling parameters for all types of interplanetary sources of storms: the correlation coefficient varies within the range from r = 0.81 for the storms caused by Ejecta to r = 0.85 for the storms caused by Sheath. The highest accuracy is for the storms caused by MC. It is, by a factor of ～1.5, lower for the Sheath-induced storms.     

The Earth's Magnetosphere Response to Solar Wind Events according to the INTERBALL Project Data

The results of studying the interaction of two types of the solar wind (magnetic clouds and solar wind of extremely low density) with the Earth's magnetosphere are discussed. This study is based of the INTERBALL space project measurements and on the other ground-based and space observations. For moderate variations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, the response of the magnetosphere is similar to its response to similar changes in the absence of magnetic clouds and depends on a previous history of IMF variations. Extremely large density variations on the interplanetary shocks, and on leading and trailing edges of the clouds result in a strong deformation of the magnetosphere, in large-scale motion of the geomagnetic tail, and in the development of magnetic substorms and storms. The important consequences of these processes are: (1) the observation of regions of the magnetosphere and its boundaries at great distances from the average location; (2) density and temperature variations in the outer regions of the magnetosphere; (3) multiple crossings of geomagnetic tail boundaries by a satellite; and (4) bursty fluxes of electrons and ions in the magnetotail, auroral region, and the polar cap. Several polar activations and substorms can develop during a single magnetic cloud arrival; a greater number of these events are accompanied, as a rule, by the development of a stronger magnetic storm. A gradual, but very strong, decrease of the solar wind density on May 10–12, 1999, did not cause noticeable change of geomagnetic indices, though it resulted in considerable expansion of the magnetosphere.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar,Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances, 1976–2000: 3

In this paper we continue the analysis of the influence of solar and interplanetary events on magnetic storms of the Earth that was started in [9, 10]. Different experimental results on solar-terrestrial physics are analyzed in the study and the effects are determined that arise due to differences in the methods used to analyze the data. The classifications of magnetic storms by the K _p and D _st indices, the solar flare classifications by optical and X-ray observations, and the classifications of different geoeffective interplanetary events are compared and discussed. It is demonstrated that quantitative estimations of the relationships between two types of events often depend on the direction in which the events are compared. In particular, it was demonstrated that the geoeffectiveness of halo CMEs (that is, the percentage of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections that result in geomagnetic storms) is 40–50%. Higher values given in some papers were obtained by another method, in which they were defined as the probability of finding candidates for a source of geomagnetic storms among CMEs, and, strictly speaking, these values are not true estimates of the geoeffectiveness. The latter results are also in contrast with the results of the two-stage tracing of the events: first a storm—an interplanetary disturbance, and then an interplanetary disturbance—a CME.     

Statistical study of interplanetary condition effect on geomagnetic storms: 2. Variations of parameters

We investigate the behavior of mean values of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s (IMF) parameters and their absolute and relative variations during the magnetic storms generated by various types of the solar wind. In this paper, which is a continuation of paper [1], we, on the basis of the OMNI data archive for the period of 1976–2000, have analyzed 798 geomagnetic storms with D _st ≤ −50 nT and their interplanetary sources: corotating interaction regions CIR, compression regions Sheath before the interplanetary CMEs; magnetic clouds MC; “Pistons” Ejecta, and an uncertain type of a source. For the analysis the double superposed epoch analysis method was used, in which the instants of the magnetic storm onset and the minimum of the D _st index were taken as reference times. It is shown that the set of interplanetary sources of magnetic storms can be sub-divided into two basic groups according to their slowly and fast varying characteristics: (1) ICME (MC and Ejecta) and (2) CIR and Sheath. The mean values, the absolute and relative variations in MC and Ejecta for all parameters appeared to be either mean or lower than the mean value (the mean values of the electric field E _y and of the B _z component of IMF are higher in absolute value), while in CIR and Sheath they are higher than the mean value. High values of the relative density variation sN/〈N〉 are observed in MC. At the same time, the high values for relative variations of the velocity, B _z component, and IMF magnitude are observed in Sheath and CIR. No noticeable distinctions in the relationships between considered parameters for moderate and strong magnetic storms were observed.     

Statistical investigation of Heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms: 2

This work is a continuation of investigation [1] of the behavior of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s parameters near the onset of geomagnetic storms for various types of solar wind streams. The data of the OMNI base for the 1976–2000 period are used in the analysis. The types of solar wind streams were determined, and the times of beginning (onsets) of magnetic storms were distributed in solar wind types as follows: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). The growth of variations (hourly standard deviations) of the density and IMF magnitude was observed 5–10 hours before the onset only in the Sheath. For the CIR-, Sheath-and MC-induced storms the dependence between the minimum of the IMF B _z-component and the minimum of the D _st -index, as well as the dependence between the electric field E _y of solar wind and the minimum of the D _st -index are steeper than those for the “uncertain” solar wind type. The steepest D _st vs. B _z dependence is observed in the Sheath, and the steepest D _st vs. E _y dependence is observed in the MC.     

Statistical investigation of heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms

Time behavior of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters is investigated for 623 magnetic storms of the OMNI database for the period 1976–2000. The analysis is carried out by the superposed epoch technique (the magnetic storm onset time is taken to be the beginning of an epoch) for five various categories of storms induced by various types of solar wind: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). In total, the analysis conducted for “all storms” included 623 storms. The obtained data, on one hand, confirm the results obtained earlier without selecting the intervals according to the solar wind types, and, on the other hand, they indicate the existence of distinctions in the time variation of parameters for various types of solar wind. Though the lowest values of the B _z-component of IMF are observed in the MC, the lowest values of the D _st-index are achieved in the Sheath. Thus, the strongest magnetic storms are induced, on average, during the Sheath rather than during the MC body passage, probably owing to higher pressure in the Sheath. Higher values of nkT, T/T _exp, and β parameters are observed in the CIR and Sheath and lower ones in the MC, which corresponds to the physical essence of these solar wind types.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000

Within the framework of the Space Weather program, 25-year data sets for solar X-ray observations, measurements of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the solar wind, and D _st index variations are analyzed to reveal the factors that have had the greatest influence on the development of magnetospheric storms. The correlation between solar flares and magnetic storms practically does not exceed a level of correlation for random processes. In particular, no relation was found between the importance of solar flares and the minimum of the D _st index for storms that could be connected with considered flares by their time delay. The coronal mass ejections (CME; data on these phenomena cover a small part of the interval) result in storms with D _st < –60 nT only in half of the cases. The most geoeffective interplanetary phenomena are the magnetic clouds (MC), which many believe to be interplanetary manifestations of CMEs, and compressions in the region of interaction of slow and fast streams in the solar wind (the so-called Corotating Interaction Region, CIR). They correspond to about two-thirds of all observed magnetic storms. For storms with –100 < D _st < –60 nT, the frequencies of storms from MC and CIR being approximately equal. For strong storms with D _st < – 100 nT, the fraction of storms from MC is considerably higher. The problems of reliable prediction of geomagnetic disturbances from observations of the Sun and conditions in interplanetary space are discussed.     

Forecasting of the Total Electron Content at a Single Location

The autocovariance prediction method previously used for the forecast of VI derived ionospheric characteristics has been used for forecast of one of the most important ionospheric—the total electron content (TEC)—at single locations. Quiet and disturbed conditions at different European stations were studied in regard to clarify the forecasting capabilities of the method for determination of the TEC. The accuracies of the method achieved in dependence on the time range of the forecast are demonstrated.     

Does geomagnetic storm magnitude depend on solar flare importance?

In order to predict space weather effects, solar flares are often used as precursors of magnetic storms on the Earth. In particular, possible relation between the solar flare importance and magnetic storm intensity is discussed in some papers. However, published results contradict each other. We compare the published results on the flare-storm dependence and discuss possible causes of this disagreement: (1) different intervals of observation, (2) differing statistics, and (3) different methods of identification of events and their comparison. Our analysis has shown that the fact of occurrence and the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm cannot be determined, generally, using only the solar flare importance. However, analyzing additional information on the coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with the geomagnetic storm, one can offer an algorithm for the storm magnitude prediction on the basis of flare importance.     

Unusually high geomagnetic activity in 2003

In 2003, geomagnetic activity was found to be considerably higher than in any other year of the current solar cycle. This was caused by the time coincidence of large low-latitude coronal holes and a significant burst of the flare and eruptive activity of the Sun. The features of recent intensification of the activity are discussed, and the long-period behavior of indices of the geomagnetic activity in the 23rd and previous cycles is compared. The large magnetic storms in October–November 2003 are analyzed in more detail.Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 42, No. 6, 2004, pp. 563–573.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Belov, Gaidash, Ivanov, Kanonidi.     

Effect of geomagnetic field disturbances on the adaptive stress reaction of cosmonauts

Investigations of the effect of geomagnetic activity factors on the cardiac rhythm regulation and arterial pressure of cosmonauts during the expeditions onboard the Soyuz spacecraft, and the MIR and ISS orbital space stations was carried out for various durations of flight in weightlessness and, under control. Groups of cosmonauts were inspected under flight conditions outside the geomagnetic disturbances and in ground preflight conditions, during disturbances without them. The presence of specific effect of geomagnetic disturbances on the system of vegetative regulation of blood circulation of cosmonauts during the flight was demonstrated for the first time. The response of cosmonauts’ cardiac rhythm on the magnetic storm is definitely revealed; however, it depends on the initial functional background and, in particular, on the state of mechanisms of vegetative regulation (the duration of flight and adaptation to it).     

利用混合模型LSTM-DNN进行全球电离层TEC map的中短期预报

近年来,基于深度学习技术的长短期记忆（long short-term memory, LSTM）网络相关预报算法在空间天气的预测方面得到广泛应用,但存在预测误差随时间堆叠的缺陷,因此只能进行有限的短期预测。为解决这一问题,文章将太阳风参数、太阳黑子数、地磁活动水平指数Ap以及磁暴环电流指数Dst作为预报因子加入模型,建立一个基于LSTM和深度神经网络（deep neural networks, DNN）的混合模型来进行全球电离层TEC map的中短期预报。该模型可以明显减小时间递增对预测误差的影响。测试结果表明,相较于单独的LSTM模型,LSTM-DNN混合模型对24 h电离层预报准确率相近,对48 h电离层预报平均相对精度（RA）由79.30%提升到81.18%,对144 h电离层预报平均相对精度由64.97%提升到77.64%。     

Proton precipitation to the equator of the isotropic boundary during the geomagnetic storm on November 20–29, 2003

Using NOAA satellite data, we consider the peculiarities of precipitation dynamics for energetic protons to the equator of the isotropy boundary during a geomagnetic storm. In addition to two well-known types of proton precipitation events, a new third type of precipitation is distinguished, which is observed on the dayside at relatively high latitudes. The assumption is made that the third-type precipitation in the dayside sector is associated with the development of ion-cyclotron instability. Apparently, the transverse anisotropy of energetic protons, which is necessary for the development of instability, is caused by splitting of drift shells. All three types of precipitation have different generation regions and different time dynamics during storms. The maximum precipitation intensity takes place in the evening sector during the main phase of a storm. At the storm’s recovery phase major losses of protons of the ring current are due to precipitation in the day and morning sectors.