A review of solar proton events during the 22nd solar cycle.

Solar cycle 22 had significant, large fluence, energetic particle events on a scale reminiscent of the 19th solar cycle. Examination of the characteristics of these large events suggests that some of the old concepts of spectral form, intensity-time envelope and energy extrapolations, used to estimate the dose from large events that occurred during previous solar cycles should be re-evaluated. There has also been a dramatic change in perspective regarding the source of solar protons observed in interplanetary space. Very large fluence events are associated with powerful fast interplanetary shocks. The elemental composition and charge state of these events is suggestive of a dominate source in the solar corona and not from a very hot plasma. Furthermore, there is a strong suggestion that the intensity-time profile observed in space is dominated by the connection of the observer to an interplanetary shock source rather than to a unique location near the surface of the sun. These concepts will be examined from the perspective of energetic particles contributing to the dose experienced by an astronaut on an interplanetary space mission.     

太阳质子通量模型研究

太阳质子事件对航天活动构成重要威胁, 预测一定时期内太阳质子通量对航天器抗辐射加固设计有重要的指导意义. 在第20至23太阳活动周的太阳质子事件数据统计分析的基础上, 建立了一个针对 E>10 MeV和 E>30 MeV太阳质子通量的新模型. 新模型与目前航天工程中常用的JPL模型相比较, 引入了太阳活动性对质子事件发生概率的影响因素, 能够评估不同太阳活动水平下的质子通量, 其结果更符合质子事件的分布特征.      

Analysis of radiation risk from alpha particle component of solar particle events.

The solar particle events (SPE) will contain a primary alpha particle component, representing a possible increase in the potential risk to astronauts during an SPE over the often studied proton component. We discuss the physical interactions of alpha particles important in describing the transport of these particles through spacecraft and body shielding. Models of light ion reactions are presented and their effects on energy and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra in shielding discussed. We present predictions of particle spectra, dose, and dose equivalent in organs of interest for SPE spectra typical of those occurring in recent solar cycles. The large events of solar cycle 19 are found to have substantial increase in biological risk from alpha particles, including a large increase in secondary neutron production from alpha particle breakup.     

New insights from cross-correlation studies between solar activity indices and cosmic-ray flux during Forbush decrease events

Observed galactic cosmic ray intensity can be subjected to a transient decrease. These so-called Forbush decreases are driven by coronal mass ejection induced shockwaves in the heliosphere. By combining in situ measurements by space borne instruments with ground-based cosmic ray observations, we investigate the relationship between solar energetic particle flux, various solar activity indices, and intensity measurements of cosmic rays during such an event. We present cross-correlation study done using proton flux data from the SOHO/ERNE instrument, as well as data collected during some of the strongest Forbush decreases over the last two completed solar cycles by the network of neutron monitor detectors and different solar observatories. We have demonstrated connection between the shape of solar energetic particles fluence spectra and selected coronal mass ejection and Forbush decrease parameters, indicating that power exponents used to model these fluence spectra could be valuable new parameters in similar analysis of mentioned phenomena. They appear to be better predictor variables of Forbush decrease magnitude in interplanetary magnetic field than coronal mass ejection velocities.     

基于集成学习的太阳质子事件短期预报方法

太阳质子事件是一种由太阳活动爆发时喷射并传播到近地空间的高能粒子引起的空间天气现象。这些高能粒子会对航天器和宇航员产生严重危害,对太阳质子事件进行准确的短期预报是航天活动灾害预防的重要内容。针对当前主要预报模型中普遍存在的高虚报率问题,提出了一种基于集成学习的太阳质子事件短期预报方法,利用第23个太阳活动周数据,建立了一种集成8种机器学习模型的太阳质子事件短期预报系统。实验结果表明,本文方法在取得了80.95%的报准率的同时,将虚报率降低至19.05%,相比现有的预报系统具有较为明显的优势。      

Solar flares,CMEs and solar energetic particle events during solar cycle 24

We present here a study of Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPs) associated with solar flares during 2010–2014 in solar cycle 24. We have selected the flare events (≥GOES M-class), which produced SEPs. The SEPs are classified into three categories i.e. weak (proton intensity?≤?1?pfu), minor (1?pfu?<?proton intensity?<?10?pfu) and major (proton intensity?≥?10?pfu). We used the GOES data for the SEP events which have intensity greater than one pfu and SOHO/ERNE data for the SEP event less than one pfu intensity. In addition to the flare and SEP properties, we have also discussed different properties of associated CMEs.     

Comment on estimating the solar proton environment that may affect Mars missions.

Estimates of the energetic proton environment for a Mars mission are generally extrapolated from the solar proton observations at 1 AU. We find that solar particle events may be divided into two general classes. Events dominated by a near-sun injection of particles onto interplanetary magnetic field lines leading to the spacecraft position represent the "classical" solar particle event associated with solar activity. This class of event will scale in radial distance by the classical power law extrapolation. The extended-interplanetary-shock source generates a maximum flux as the shock passes the detection location. This class of event typically generates maximum fluence, but in this case, the flux and fluence will not scale in the classical manner with radial distance.     

The heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with solar proton events.

We find that the heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with earth-observed solar proton events is a function of the particle measurement energy. For solar proton events containing fluxes with energies exceeding 1 GeV, we find a Gaussian distribution about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun. This distribution is modified as the detection threshold is lowered. For > 100 MeV solar proton events with fluxes > or = 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 we find the distribution becomes wider with a secondary peak near the solar central meridian. When the threshold is lowered to 10 MeV the distribution further evolves. For > 10 MeV solar proton events having a flux threshold at 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 the distribution can be considered to be a composite of two Gaussians. One distribution is centered about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun, and the other is centered about the solar central meridian. For large flux solar proton events, those with flux threshold of 1000 (cm2-sec-ster)-1 at energies > 10 MeV, we find the distribution is rather flat for about 40 degrees either side of central meridian.     

Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.     

Advances in modeling gradual solar energetic particle events

Solar energetic particles pose one of the most serious hazards to space probes, satellites and astronauts. The most intense and largest solar energetic particle events are closely associated with fast coronal mass ejections able to drive interplanetary shock waves as they propagate through interplanetary space. The simulation of these particle events requires knowledge of how particles and shocks propagate through the interplanetary medium, and how shocks accelerate and inject particles into interplanetary space. Several models have appeared in the literature that attempt to model these energetic particle events. Each model presents its own simplifying assumptions in order to tackle the series of complex phenomena occurring during the development of such events. The accuracy of these models depends upon the approximations used to describe the physical processes involved in the events. We review the current models used to describe gradual solar energetic particle events, their advances and shortcomings, and their possible applications to space weather forecasting.     

Interplanetary proton cumulated fluence model update

Solar particle events leading to important increase of particle fluxes at energies of order of magnitude ranging from MeV to GeV constitute an important hazard for space missions. They may lead to effects seen in microelectronics or damage to solar cells and constitute a potential hazard for manned missions. Cumulative damage is commonly expressed as a function of fluence which is defined as the integral of the flux over time. A priori deterministic estimates of the expected fluence cannot be made because over the time scale of a space mission, the fluence can be dominated by the contribution of a few rare and unpredictable high intensity events. Therefore, statistical approaches are required in order to estimate fluences likely to be encountered by a space mission in advance. This paper extends work done by Rosenqvist et al. [Rosenqvist, L., Hilgers, A., Evans, H., Daly, E., Hapgood, M., Stamper, R., Zwickl, R., Bourdarie, S., Boscher, D. Toolkit for updating interplanetary proton-cumulated fluence models. J. Spacecraft Rockets, 42(6), 1077–1090, 2005] to describe an updated predictive engineering model for the proton interplanetary fluence with energies >30 MeV. This model is derived from a complete list of solar proton fluences based on data from a number of calibrated sources covering almost three solar cycles.     

A comparison of two different types of geosynchronous satellite measurements during the 1989 solar proton events.

The proton telescope aboard the GOES-7 satellite continuously records the proton flux at geosynchronous orbit, and therefore provides a direct measurement of the energetic protons arriving during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Microelectronic devices are susceptible to single event upset (SEU) caused by both energetic protons and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) ions. Some devices are so sensitive that their upsets can be used as a dosimetric indicator of a high fluence of particles. The 93L422 1K SRAM is one such device. Eight of them are on the TDRS-1 satellite in geosynchronous orbit, and collectively they had been experiencing 1-2 upset/day due to the GCR background. During the large SEP events of 1989 the upset rate increased dramatically, up to about 250 for the week of 19 Oct, due to the arrival of the SEP protons. Using the GOES proton spectra, the proton-induced SEU cross section curve for the 93L422 and the shielding distribution around the 93L422, the calculated upsets based on the GOES satellite data compared well against the log of measured upsets on TDRS-1.     

The monitoring and prediction of solar particle events--an experience report.

The routine monitoring and prediction of solar proton events that may be a hazard to personnel and materials in space are a routine service of the Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. The services provided are made available to the space centers in the United States for use in their operations. The real time monitoring consists primarily of Space Environment Monitors on both geosynchronous and polar orbiting weather satellites. The monitoring emphasizes proton fluxes but alpha particles, electrons, and in one case, heavier particles, are included. The predictions are of two types; a general outlook made 1 to 3 days in advance, and specific prediction of event size and probability of occurrence made after a solar flare occurs. The accuracy of the prediction made for solar cycle 21 are assessed.     

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

Solar proton events at the growth phase of the 22nd solar activity cycle.

Meteor satellite observations in March, August, September and October 1989 recorded intensive solar proton events which caused a disturbed radiation situation in the near-Earth space. The paper presents the results of analyzing flux and spectral characteristics of the events and their relation to heliogeophysical situation.     

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

Study on solar sources and polar cap absorption events recorded in Antarctica

Particularly intense events occurred on the Sun in a period around minimum of solar activity during cycle 23. We investigated the characteristics of September 2005 and December 2006 events and the properties of the correlated observations of ionospheric absorption, obtained by a 30 MHz riometer installed at Mario Zucchelli Station (MZS-Antarctica), and of geomagnetic activity recorded at Scott Base (Antarctica). Solar events are studied using the characteristics of CMEs measured with SoHO/LASCO coronagraphs and the temporal evolution of solar energetic protons in different energy ranges measured by GOES 11 spacecraft.     

Propagation of energetic particles in the solar wind

The characteristics of solar energetic particle events as observed in interplanetary space depend on many physical processes acting at the source and during the transport from the source to the observer. These processes, such as acceleration at the Sun and the propagation near the Sun and in interplanetary space depend, in general, on both the particle velocity and rigidity. Thus, the evaluation of both the nuclear charge and/or atomic mass and the ionic charge of heavy ions turns out to be essential for the interpretation of the physical parameters observed, such as the energy spectra and the compositional variations during individual solar energetic particle events. In this paper recent results on the direct determination of the charge states of He, C, O, and Fe will be summarized. Using these results the compositional variations during individual solar particle events will be discussed. It will be shown that ratio changes by a factor of ～ 10 during the onset phase of solar particle events, as frequently observed, could be explained not only by rigidity dependent interplanetary propagation, but also by rigidity dependent diffusive propagation in the corona. However, there is now increasing experimental evidence that also other processes, such as compositional variations at the source and discontinuities of the interplanetary magnetic field, separating two different particle populations, may be important. Thus the picture emerges that these variations do not have a unique explanation but rather that each event has to be investigated individually.     

The method for predicting solar proton events

Dynamic processes in the interplanetary space have been investigated using time variations in time parameters of the cosmic-ray rigidity spectrum. Change of heliosphere electromagnetic characteristics has been found out to precede sporadic phenomena on the Sun. In particular, it is shown that sporadic phenomena are followed by generation of local polarization electric fields, decrease of the magnetic-field strength in small-scale heliospheric structures, and increase of the potential difference between the pole and the plane of the ecliptic. These features allow prediction of solar proton events in advance (from several hours to several tens of hours) with a high degree of confirmation.     

Unexpected burst of solar activity recorded by neutron monitors during October–November 2003

During the extreme burst of solar activity in October–November 2003, a series of outstanding events distinguished by their magnitude and peculiarities were recorded by the ground based neutron monitor network. The biggest and most productive in 23rd solar cycle active region 486 generated the most significant series of solar flares among of which the flare X28/3B on November 4, 2003 was the mostly powerful over the history of X-ray solar observations. The fastest arrival of the interplanetary disturbance from the Sun after the flare event in August 1972 and the highest solar wind velocity and IMF intensity were observed during these events. In one-week period three ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays were recorded by neutron monitor network (28, 29 October and 2 November 2003). Maximum proton energy in these events seems to be ranged from 5 to 10 GeV. Joint analysis of data from ground level stations (neutron monitors) and satellite measurements allows the estimation of the particle path length, the onset time of the injection on the Sun and some other proton flux characteristics.