低轨目标短弧关联的稳健方法

未来大量低轨星座部署一旦完成，将会对传统的空间目标监视提出更高的要求.广角光学望远镜系统具有广域监视效果，可以同时观测大量目标.但是广角望远镜的观测数据大部分属于“短弧”观测数据，单次观测无法进行空间目标的初始轨道确定.目前有效的解决方案是对光学观测弧段进行准确关联，融合多组观测数据进行初定轨.本文以容许域方法为基础，通过优化拟合两段观测短弧的轨道，结合卡方检验，确定不同观测弧段之间的关联性.其次详细描述了对于低轨目标，用仅测角观测数据进行关联的时候，存在的病态性问题.最后，针对低轨目标短弧关联错误率高的问题，提出了用角度误差特性规律进行误关联识别的方法.误关联的准确识别有效地提高了对于低轨空间目标仅光学观测序列的关联成功率，为后续的空间目标编目提供了有效的数据支撑.     

LEO空间碎片甚短弧角度数据初轨确定方法对比

光学观测是空间目标观测中最常见的一种观测方式。采用扫描模式工作时光学观测得到的观测弧段弧长通常很短,有时甚至不到被观测空间目标运行周期的1%,这样的角度数据被称为甚短弧角度数据。基于近圆LEO空间碎片地基实测场景,研究比较仅利用角度数据进行初始轨道确定常用方法的性能差异,分析观测弧长对不同初轨确定算法的定轨成功率和误差的影响,为初轨确定工作提供参考。对比分析了常用的几种方法,包括Laplace方法、Gauss方法、Gooding方法和近几年提出的距离搜索算法等。大规模实测数据处理结果显示,距离搜索算法的成功率高于90%,初轨半长轴统计误差仅为25 km。初轨结果表明,距离搜索算法定轨成功率高于其他算法。研究成果可为解决空间碎片初轨确定问题提供参考。      

基于正弦拟合的空间目标短弧关联算法

星敏感器是一种高精度姿态传感器，具有断续拍摄空间目标的能力，可作为空间目标监视平台。将星敏感器断续观测的短弧准确关联是实现空间目标精确定轨的前提。通过对空间目标的大量观测数据统计发现，空间目标的赤纬随赤经的变化始终满足一条周期为360°的正弦曲线且峰值与轨道倾角有关。对新旧航迹的赤经赤纬变化规律进行研究，提出一种基于正弦拟合的空间目标短弧关联算法，避免了空间目标初定轨的步骤，节约了算法运行时间。仿真中观测时长最短为50s，通过对目标密集的GEO带增加额外约束，可区分倾角相差0.01°的轨道。当航迹段间隔3h时，3组噪声水平目标关联的准确率均达90%以上。     

LEO卫星轨道误差对无线电掩星反演大气参数的影响

采用数值方法估计了LEO卫星轨道误差对无线电掩星反演大气参数的影响。并将其应用于1995年10月11日的某次掩星事件的观测资料处理和分析，得到了LEO卫星轨道误差对无线电掩星反演大气参数影响的定量结果。     

单星导航HEO卫星初轨确定算法

HEO(Highly Elliptical Orbit)轨道卫星利用星载GPS(Global Positioning System)进行自主定轨面临的主要难题之一就是解决在单颗导航卫星条件下的初轨确定问题.从理论上分析了利用单颗导航卫星的观测量确定HEO卫星轨道初值的所需满足的条件,指出了利用F.G级数法求解初值存在的问题,提出了一种基于轨道根数约束的迭代批处理算法,该算法无需复杂的数学运算,避免了F.G级数法用短弧资料定初轨时系数矩阵秩亏的影响.仿真结果表明,当先验轨道根数误差在允许范围内取值时,在考虑轨道射入误差的情况下,初值的位置偏差在10⁴ m量级,速度偏差在10⁰ m/s量级,能够根据单颗导航卫星的短弧观测值可靠地完成轨道初值的确定.     

钟差和动力学参数联合约束下的北斗卫星轨道快速确定

受地球非球形引力、第三体摄动和太阳光压等摄动因素的影响,导航卫星位置存在长周期变化趋势,需要定期对导航卫星进行轨道机动,以保持卫星轨位和导航服务区.导航卫星机动后的定轨,特别是GEO卫星,其频繁轨控后的轨道快速确定问题,是制约卫星可用度和导航系统服务性能的重要因素.在基于伪距相位数据的轨道测定中,轨道与钟差的统计相关是制约卫星轨道快速确定的关键因素,特别是在观测弧段短的情况下,待估参数之间的相关性更强,动力学参数估计结果严重失真会导致轨道预报精度衰减明显.当卫星钟差与测站钟差通过外部手段高精度测定后,可以减少待估参数的估计,同时利用长弧定轨的动力学与运动学参数先验信息,对短弧定轨模式进行参数约束,卫星定轨精度将有很大的提升空间.通过钟差与力学参数的联合约束,实现了北斗卫星短弧快速定轨,解决了卫星机动后的轨道快速确定问题,SLR评估的卫星机动后4 h定轨外符视向精度优于0.71 m,比常规方法提高了3倍,预报1 h轨道视向精度为1.89 m,用户等效距离误差(UERE)精度达到1.85 m.     

基于预报偏差的LEO航天器轨道异常检测

针对由轨道控制、大气环境、碰撞等因素造成的低轨(LEO)航天器轨道突变问题,提出了一种基于预报偏差的轨道异常检测方法。选择LEO轨道的半长轴和倾角作为特征轨道参数,利用SGP4模型长期项对目标的两行轨道要素(TLE)进行预报得到特征轨道参数的预报值,通过对特征轨道参数的编目数据和预报数据进行平滑后求差得到预报偏差序列,基于马氏距离对预报偏差数据的两个分量进行联合异常检测。对Terra卫星2010年的机动事件分析结果同NASA发布的其机动历史相吻合,表明该方法可以有效地检测航天器轨道异常的次数、时间和类型,可应用于空间目标的监视与空间态势的感知。     

基于协方差理论的非关联轨道动态关联算法

空间目标编目过程中新目标监测数据稀疏,定轨误差大,固定门限的轨道关联成功率低。文章旨在通过轨道协方差演化和马氏距离动态关联不能与目标数据库关联的非关联轨道(uncorrelated tracks, UCTs)。关联模拟流程包括轨道星历计算、观测数据模拟、定轨及协方差演化和马氏距离动态关联。协方差演化是UCTs关联的主要过程。文章建立基于线性和无迹卡尔曼滤波(unscent kalman filter, UKF)协方差生成和演化算法,以雅克比转换计算演化协方差并引入UKF算法提高协方差计算精度,分析高斯演化协方差计算结果,建立高效稳定的协方差演化模型,并把协方差演化模型应用于UCTs关联中去。以印度一箭104星中的20颗卫星的两行轨道根数模拟UCTs关联,结果表明,随着轨道时间间隔增加,关联量逐渐下降。相同轨道时间间隔,不同卫星轨道所计算的关联量也不相同。当关联阈值设为200时20颗卫星可以全部关联。     

天基可见光传感器卫星监视地球同步带目标的轨道设计

在分析地球同步轨道目标光学特性和位置特性的基础上, 确定了天基可见光(Space-Based Visible, SBV)传感器监视整个地球同步带目标的搜索栅栏位置以及搜索策略, 导出搜索栅栏与观测时间和观测次数之间的关系. 根据航天任务需求和SBV传感器特性, 确定了监视轨道的类型和参数约束条件, 给出了约束条件下监视轨道的选取范围, 并对其轨道观测效能进行仿真分析. 仿真结果表明, 通过适当选取监视轨道参数, 监视轨道对地球同步带的覆盖率均可达到90%以上. 如果SBV传感器视场达到4°×4°以上或搜索栅栏宽度大于40°, 其覆盖率高达95%以上.      

基于伪距和观测量的地球同步卫星动力学定轨研究

利用伪距和观测量对同步卫星进行了动力学定轨的研究，给出了伪距和观测量的测量方程和修正方法，采用国内4个监测站的模拟数据进行了仿真计算．结果表明，采用7天弧长伪距和数据进行轨道改进及轨道外推的精度，与5天弧长数据的计算结果相当，但远优于3天数据的计算结果．在观测随机误差为3m时，7天弧长数据定轨精度约为5m，预报7天径向精度优于20m．     

A genetic algorithm for Initial Orbit Determination from a too short arc optical observation

Optical observations constitute a source of angular measurements of a satellite pass. Commonly, these observations have short durations with respect to the satellite orbit period. As a consequence, the use of classical orbit determination algorithms, as Laplace, Gauss or Escobal methods, give very poor results. The present work faces with the problem of estimating the orbital parameters of an orbiting object using its optical streak acquired by a telescope or a high accuracy camera. In the paper a new technique is developed for the Initial Orbit Determination from optical data by exploiting the genetic algorithms. The algorithm works without restrictions on the observer location. A recent challenging problem is the Initial Orbit Determination with space-based observations. This work focuses on the problem of determinating the orbital parameters of a satellite from an orbiting observer in LEO, using short time observations. We present the results based on a simulation with the observer on a sun-synchronous orbit with a single observation of just 60 s. Monte Carlo simulations are presented with different levels of sensor accuracy to show the reliability of the algorithm. The algorithm is able to yield a candidate solution for each observation. The coplanar case is analyzed and discussed as well.     

基于Gooding算法的天基光学目标跟踪定轨

开展了基于Gooding算法的400km天基平台光学目标监测的轨道确定研究，当测量误差为3”和6”时，分别对800，1500及36000km轨道高度目标进行初始轨道确定及轨道改进分析.仿真结果表明，利用400km轨道高度平台对800~1500km轨道高度目标进行初定轨，测量数据误差为3”~6”时，4~15min弧段的初定轨精度约在10km量级，1~2min弧段的初定轨精度约在100km量级；15min初定轨弧段轨道改进后误差在100m量级，弧段小于10min时轨道改进误差精度在km量级.利用400km轨道高度平台对36000km轨道高度目标进行初定轨，测量数据误差为3”时，15~20min弧段的初定轨精度约在数十km量级，8~10min弧段的初定轨精度在100km量级；轨道改进后误差在km量级.测量数据误差为6”时，20min弧段初定轨精度在10km量级，8~15min弧段初定轨精度在100km量级，轨道改进后误差精度在10km量级.      

Accurate orbit predictions for debris orbit manoeuvre using ground-based lasers

Orbit manoeuvre of low Earth orbiting (LEO) debris using ground-based lasers has been proposed as a cost-effective means to avoid debris collisions. This requires the orbit of the debris object to be determined and predicted accurately so that the laser beam can be locked on the debris without the loss of valuable laser operation time. This paper presents the method and results of a short-term accurate LEO (<900 km in altitude) debris orbit prediction study using sparse laser ranging data collected by the EOS Space Debris Tracking System (SDTS). A main development is the estimation of the ballistic coefficients of the LEO objects from their archived long-term two line elements (TLE). When an object is laser tracked for two passes over about 24 h, orbit prediction (OP) accuracy of 10–20 arc seconds for the next 24–48 h can be achieved – the accuracy required for laser debris manoeuvre. The improvements in debris OP accuracy are significant in other applications such as debris conjunction analyses and the realisation of daytime debris laser tracking.     

Precision analysis of autonomous orbit determination using star sensor for Beidou MEO satellite

This paper focuses on the autonomous orbit determination accuracy of Beidou MEO satellite using the onboard observations of the star sensors and infrared horizon sensor. A polynomial fitting method is proposed to calibrate the periodic error in the observation of the infrared horizon sensor, which will greatly influence the accuracy of autonomous orbit determination. Test results show that the periodic error can be eliminated using the polynomial fitting method. The User Range Error (URE) of Beidou MEO satellite is less than 2?km using the observations of the star sensors and infrared horizon sensor for autonomous orbit determination. The error of the Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) is less than 60?$\mathrm{\mu }\text{rad}$ and the observations of star sensors can be used as a spatial basis for Beidou MEO navigation constellation.     

Achievable debris orbit prediction accuracy using laser ranging data from a single station

Earlier studies have shown that an orbit prediction accuracy of 20 arc sec ground station pointing error for 1–2 day predictions was achievable for low Earth orbit (LEO) debris using two passes of debris laser ranging (DLR) data from a single station, separated by about 24 h. The accuracy was determined by comparing the predicted orbits with subsequent tracking data from the same station. This accuracy statement might be over-optimistic for other parts of orbit far away from the station. This paper presents the achievable orbit prediction accuracy using satellite laser ranging (SLR) data of Starlette and Larets under a similar data scenario as that of DLR. The SLR data is corrupted with random errors of 1 m standard deviation so that its accuracy is similar to that of DLR data. The accurate ILRS Consolidated Prediction Format orbits are used as reference to compute the orbit prediction errors. The study demonstrates that accuracy of 20 arc sec for 1–2 day predictions is achievable.     

Analysis of laser ranges and angular measurements data fusion for space debris orbit determination

In the framework of space debris, the orbit determination process is a fundamental step, both, for researchers and for satellite operators. The accurate knowledge of the orbit of space debris objects is needed to allow space debris characterization studies and to avoid unnecessary collision avoidance maneuvers.The accuracy of the results of an orbit determination process depends on several factors as the number, the accuracy, the kind of processed measurements, their distribution along the orbit, and the object-observer relative geometry. When the observation coverage of the target orbit is not homogeneous, the accuracy of the orbit determination can be improved processing different kind of observables. Recent studies showed that the satellite laser ranging technique can be successfully applied to space debris.In this paper, we will investigate the benefits of using laser ranges and angular measurements for the orbit determination process. We will analyze the influence of the number of used observations, of the covered arc of orbit, of each observable, and of the observation geometry on the estimated parameters. Finally, using data acquired on short observation arcs, we analyze the achievable accuracies for the orbital regimes with the highest space debris density, and to the consequences of the data fusion on catalog maintenance operations. The results shown are obtained using only real data (both angular and laser measurements) provided by sensors of the Swiss Optical Ground Station and Geodynamics Observatory Zimmerwald owned by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) and for some studies also using ranges provided from other stations of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS).