Public choice economics and space policy: realising space tourism

Government space agencies have the statutory responsibility to suport the commercialisation of space activities. NASA's 1998 report “General Public Space Travel and Tourism” concluded that passenger space travel can start using already existing technology, and is likely to grow into the largest commercial activity in space: it is therefore greatly in taxpayers' economic interest that passenger space travel and accommodation industries should be developed. However, space agencies are doing nothing to help realise this — indeed, they are actively delaying it. This behaviour is predicted by ‘public choice’ economics, pioneered by Professors George Stigler and James Buchanan who received the 1982 and 1986 Nobel prizes for Economics, which views government organisations as primarily self-interested. The paper uses this viewpoint to discuss public and private roles in the coming development of a space tourism industry.     

A liquid propulsion panorama

Liquid-propellant rocket engines are widely used all over the world, thanks to their high performances, in particular high thrust-to-weight ratio. The present paper presents a general panorama of liquid propulsion as a contribution of the IAF Advanced Propulsion Prospective Group.After a brief history of its past development in the different parts of the world, the current status of liquid propulsion, the currently observed trends, the possible areas of future improvement and a summarized road map of future developments are presented. The road map includes a summary of the liquid propulsion status presented in the “Year in review 2007” of Aerospace America.Although liquid propulsion is often seen as a mature technology with few areas of potential improvement, the requirements of an active commercial market and a renewed interest for space exploration has led to the development of a family of new engines, with more design margins, simpler to use and to produce associated with a wide variety of thrust and life requirements.     

Tracing the evolutionary path for space technologies

Proliferation and pace of advancing technologies warrant policy and strategic decision-making. Without thinking ahead, companies can loose marketshare and countries can yield comparative advantage. The rate at which burgeoning technologies progress, however, can make it difficult for corporations and governments alike to discern or better anticipate critical junctures in technology developments. This paper presents a conceptual, multidimensional framework, the “evolutionary path”, for understanding the stages of technological development in the civil space area. The analysis draws from three case studies — communications satellites, computers, and launch vehicles — and shows how the implications and developments of new, breakthrough technologies differ from the incremental technology upgrades or the later emergence of interconnected systems and infrastructures.     

The emerging China–EU space partnership: A geotechnological balancer

Through a techno-nationalist lens, this paper will assess the growing China–European Union (EU) space partnership, and its implications for international space cooperation and competition. Techno-nationalism (jishu minzuzhuyi), the idea that technological strength is an effective determinant of national power in a harshly competitive world,³ informs both Chinese and US perceptions of China's space development. Using this lens elevates all space activities—manned, unmanned, military and scientific—to the strategic level. It is our contention that because of the increasing China–EU space partnership, the USA must re-evaluate its approach to China—away from the containment approach, which has thus far predominated, toward an approach which would offer the USA the opportunity to influence and, thereby, decrease the importance of the emerging partnership.     

The impact of launch vehicle type and size on development cost

The technical development trend of future launch vehicle systems is towards fully reusable systems, in order to reduce space transportation cost. However, different types of launch vehicles are feasible, as there are

• —winged two-stage systems (WTS)

• —ballistic single-stage vehicles (BSS)

• —ballistic two-stage vehicles (BTS)

The performance of those systems is compared according to the present state of the art as well as the development cost, based on the “TRANSCOST-Model”. The development costs are shown versus launch mass (GLOW) and pay-load for the three types of reusable systems mentioned above.It is shown that performance optimization and cost minimization lead to different results. It is more economic to increase the vehicle size for achieving higher performance, instead of increasing technical complexity.Finally it is described that due to the essentially lower launch cost of reusable vehicles it will be feasible to recover the development cost by an amortization charge on the launch cost. This possibility, however, would allow commercial funding of future launch vehicle developments.     

Towards a theory of spacepower

There is as yet no widely accepted theory of spacepower, although links to the development of seapower theory are generally acknowledged. An ongoing NDU study is building a framework to explicate the fundamental aspects of spacepower and its relation to the pursuit of a variety of objectives. Two distinct “ages” of the current space era can be discerned, the first based on Cold War competition and the need for prestige, the second based on the requirement for information in a globalized world. The most important features of future space activity are likely to be economic development, and national and international security. Developing a spacepower theory will provide an opportunity to maximize the benefits of space for global society.     

Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

Space education: a step forward

One hundred European university students, with different interests and backgrounds, were asked to complete a questionnaire aimed at understanding their general knowledge and personal rapport with space issues and activities. Although the overall interest in space seemed to be relatively satisfactory, the data resulting from the survey—used for statistical purposes only—showed a poor awareness concerning the past, present and future of space programmes and achievements, and more generally of the economic, political and social implications of space. Stimulated and moved by the survey questions, the students interviewed showed their worries about the already developing process of division, control and commercialisation of space, underlining how the concept of education is differentiated from that of information when dealing with these issues. However, at the same time, all their statements seemed to be based on simple assumptions, preconceptions and presumptions. On the basis of the survey results, the final section of the paper reviews and discusses the present situation of space education in Europe, analysing its deficiencies and suggesting modifications, adjustments and a “step forward” that should be taken into consideration.     

A socio-economic evaluation of the lunar environment and resources: II. Energy for the selenosphere

This first of several study papers, based on a fundamental paper presented in 1972, provides an independent conceptual analysis and evaluation of the lunar environment as industrial base and habitat. A selenosphere system strategy is outlined. The underlying concept is that of one or several lunar industrial zones for resource extraction and on-surface processing, integrated with a circumlunar zero-g processing capability, serving markets in geolunar space. A classification of lunar elements by utilization category is presented. Lunar oxygen is a prime candidate for being an initial economic “drawing card”, because of its value for fast transportation in geolunar space, requiring significantly fewer ships for equal transfer capability per unit time than electric transports which, however, have value, especially between geosynchronous and lunar orbit. The reduced development difficulties of controlled fusion outside the atmosphere and its advantages for extracting oxygen and other elements in quantity are summarized. Examples of lunar cycle management as fundamental exoindustrial requirement for economic resource enhancement are presented. The principal initial socio-economic value of lunar industry lies in the use of lunar resources for exoindustrial products and operations designed to accelerate, intensify and diversify Earth-related benefits. In the longer run, lunar settlements are a highly suitable proving ground for studying and testing the complex matrix of technological, biological, cultural, social and psychological aspects that must be understood and manageable before large settlements beyond Earth can have a realistic basis for viability. The lunar environment is more suitable for experimentation and comparatively more “forgiving” in case of failures than is orbital space.     

But what is the true rationale for human spaceflight?

Human interest in spaceflight is ancient. It is therefore ironic that, at a time when humans finally have the capability to travel in space, the notion that we should do so is being questioned. The author analyses the reasons for this — the historical/political and technological contingency of the Space Age and the sudden falling away of the conditions which drove space activity — and in the process provides a critique of the forgoing article and the tendency to search for utilitarian justifications of human spaceflight. He argues rather that space programmes will thrive only when driven by non-material cultural and political forces. US-Russian cooperation, which has principally been undertaken for geopolitical reasons is a model for the future.     

Russian space commercialization - getting the banks involved

While the world market for space goods and services has grown enormously and continues to do so, Russia's meagre share of it is out of all proportion to its technological and intellectual base. This was initially the fault of its rigid political system, which has made it hard for companies to adapt to a market economy. This viewpoint argues that Russia's banks, which have played a major role in the country's economic reforms, should be encouraged to invest in its space industry. In particular they could finance the ‘space education’ of the business community and fund surveys and feasibility studies. In the long term this could generate large profits and would improve their standing in the world. Ultimately they might join specialist international bank associations set up to finance cooperative ventures.     

New roles in space for the 21st century: a Uruguayan view

In the economic and social circumstances of the 21st century globalized world, there is a need to rethink the traditional roles and positions in space of international intergovernmental organizations, states, both developed and developing, and humankind itself. Uruguay provides an example of a non-typical country that has managed to carve an important niche for itself in the field of space law. Although globalization is an irreversible phenomenon, which has had a devastating effect on the weakest countries, following the attacks of 11 September 2001 insecurity has become globalized for everyone. From the point of view of a state such as Uruguay, this crisis must be looked upon as an opportunity to renew and inspire intelligence, education and culture. In this way—and by continuing to argue for a global space organization—it can contribute to making the Space Age an era of global and planetary solidarity for the benefit of humankind.     

A search of the IRAS database for evidence of Dyson Spheres

One of the forms of astroengineering activity that a very advanced civilization could possibly carry on is the constructions of huge “buildings” in space around the central star. Historically such constructions are called Dyson Spheres. We would like to introduce a new name — Astroengineering Constructions (AC) — to mean a more general type of construction not necessarily related to any specific star. AC absorb energy from different types of activity and re-emit it as infrared radiation, i.e. radiation lying in the submillimeter and millimeter range. Further, AC are expect to have spectra similar to the black-body spectra because they re-emit all the energy that they absorb, although in the infrared range, as already mentioned. Thus, the effective temperature of these Planckian distributions is expected to lie between 3–300 K with the spectrum peaking between 10 μm and 10 mm. We have analyzed the IRAS database and extracted a catalog of sources whose spectra are similar to the black-body emission. The catalog of these sources and their preliminary parameters are discussed. The distribution of the color temperatures of IRAS sources and the sky distribution of sources are also considered. The possibility of the distinction of AC from thick circumstellar dust shells around red giant stars is discussed.     

SETI and space law: jurisprudential and philosophical considerations for humankind in relation to extraterrestrial life

The impact of confirmation of life outside the small ecosphere we call Earth will be profound on the terran population as a whole. The “Declaration Of Principles Concerning Activities Following The Detection Of Extraterrestrial Intelligence” and the IAA Position Paper “A Decision Process for Examining the Possibility of Sending Communications To Extraterrestrial Civilizations: A Proposal” provide a firm basis for the development of a new body of space law. It is important that space law design and prepare for implementation of a protocol to guide the nations of the world concerning the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), through the advice and cooperation of scientists, jurisprudential, philosophical, political and sociological scholars. Through the IAA, the IISL, the United Nations and other organizations, formal documentation should be drafted to encode the Declaration of Principles and IAA Position Paper referred to above. In this way, a body of metalaw can be developed to enable human communication with non-terrestrial life. This paper discusses the philosophical and sociological parameters of terran understanding of our place in the universe which will dramatically impact jurisprudential thought and action in light of the realization of the infinitesimally small niche that humankind occupies. A discussion of these interdisciplinary concerns will be necessary to realize a metalegal approach to interstellar communications and relations.     

Optimization of the ion-propelled space tug

Optimization of ion-propelled space vehicles is a topic of many aspects. Well known is the Stuhlinger procedure, which results in maximum payload mass fraction, given some mission and vehicle characteristic data. This procedure determines all major vehicle data—specifically, the electric power level. It is described with some refinements in this paper. Furthermore, a novel problem is treated: What set of vehicular data leads to the shortest possible propulsive mission duration, for a given electric power level? This goes beyond the “classic” Stuhlinger treatment; but is built upon this fundament.     

Satellite communications and the Internet: implications for the outer space treaty

The speedily expanding Internet is in the process of transforming the technological, economic, and policy bases for nation-state regulation of telecommunications, including space-based satellite networks. Deployment of the packet-switched Internet has accelerated the liberalization of telecommunications markets and has led to far-reaching regulatory restructuring and policy shifts regarding state ownership and control of networks and information flows. As space-based GMPCS networks become integral parts of the globalizing Internet infrastructure, the state-centric legal paradigm requiring state “authorization and continuing supervision” of space activities by “non-governmental entities” stipulated under Article VI of the OST and associated treaties forming the outer space legal regime will be called increasingly into question. This paper examines the technological, economic/trade, and security issues that question whether the existing state-centric paradigm for regulating Internel-based GMPCS satellite systems will remain in legal phase with emerging liberalized regulatory regimes for terrestrial Internet-based infractructures.     

SETI via Wormholes

The special theory of relativity rests on the assumption that in no case can the speed of light be exceeded. Rather surprisingly, however, recent advances in the general theory of relativity show that Faster-Than-Light (FTL) travel is allowed by Einstein’s gravitational theory. An explanation of this apparent contrast between special and general relativity lies in the fact that general relativity uses non-linear differential equations and non-Euclidean spacetime geometry that special relativity does not. Therefore, this larger mathematical armoury makes room for a whole new class of very subtle and unexpected relativistic phenomena to come to light. One of these is the Theory of Wormholes, more politely termed Tunnels into Space–Time. In 1988, Kip S. Thorne and Michael S. Morris published a path-breaking paper about Wormholes showing how spaceflight between two stars might be possible in a time of hours if a “tunnel” dug into space–time exists between them. However, they also showed that keeping the tunnel open for the spaceship to travel through would require a kind of matter, called “exotic” by them, that does not appear to exist in nature, because its tensional strength would have to exceed the energy density of its matter. This request is a severe constraint to the natural existence of Morris–Thorne Wormholes, or even to their artificial construction by an advanced civilization. In 1995, however, the present author sought to replace the exotic matter in a Morris–Thorne Wormhole by a very intense magnetic field. Such “Magnetic Wormholes” could indeed exist because very intense magnetic fields are already known to exist on the surface of neutron stars and pulsars. This paper discusses the consequences on SETI of the possible existence of Magnetic Wormholes. Phenomena of divergent gravitational lensing might possibly occur in the proximity of pulsars and neutron stars. These effects could help us detect signals from very far civilisations by virtue of ordinary SETI techniques already in use.     

Aquatic modules for bioregenerative life support systems based on the C.E.B.A.S. biotechnology

Most concepts for bioregenerative life support systems are based on edible higher land plants which create some problems with growth and seed generation under space conditions. Animal protein production is mostly neglected because of the tremendous waste management problems with tetrapods under reduced weightlessness. Therefore, the “Closed Equilibrated Biological Aquatic System” (C.E.B.A.S.) was developed which represents an artificial aquatic ecosystem containing aquatic organisms which are adpated at all to “near weightlessness conditions” (fishes Xiphophorus helleri, water snails Biomphalaria glabrata, ammonia oxidizing bacteria and the rootless non-gravitropic edible water plant Ceratophyllum demersum). Basically the C.E.B.A.S. consists of 4 subsystems: a ZOOLOGICASL COMPONENT (animal aquarium), a BOTANICAL COMPONENT (aquatic plant bioreactor), a MICROBIAL COMPONENT (bacteria filter) and an ELECTRONICAL COMPONENT (data acquisition and control unit). Superficially, the function principle appears simple: the plants convert light energy into chemical energy via photosynthesis thus producing biomass and oxygen. The animals and microorganisms use the oxygen for respiration and produce the carbon dioxide which is essential for plant photosynthesis. The ammonia ions excreted by the animals are converted by the bacteria to nitrite and then to nitrate ions which serve as a nitrogen source for the plants. Other essential ions derive from biological degradation of animal waste products and dead organic matter. The C.E.B.A.S. exists in 2 basic versions: the original C.E.B.A.S. with a volume of 150 liters and a self-sustaining standing time of more than 13 month and the so-called C.E.B.A.S. MINI MODULE with a volume of about 8.5 liters. In the latter there is no closed food loop by reasons of available space so that animal food has to be provided via an automated feeder. This device was flown already successfully on the STS-89 and STS-90 spaceshuttle missions and the working hypothesis was verified that aquatic organisms are nearly not affected at all by space conditions, i . e. that the plants exhibited biomass production rates identical to the ground controls and that as well the reproductive, and the immune system as the the embryonic and ontogenic development of the animals remained undisturbed. Currently the C.E.B.A.S. MINI MODLULE is prepared for a third spaceshuttle fligt (STS-107) in spring 2001. Based on the results of the space experiments a series of prototypes of aquatic food production modules for the implementation into BLSS were developed. This paper describes the scientific disposition of the STS-107 experiments and of open and closed aquaculture systems based on another aquatic plant species, the Lemnacean Wolffia arrhiza which is cultured as a vegetable in Southeastern Asia. This plant can be grown in suspension culture and several special bioreactors were developed for this purpose. W. arrhiza reproduces mainly vegetatively by buds but also sexually from time to time and is therefore especially suitable for genetic engineering, too. Therefore it was used, in addition, to optimize the C.E.B.A.S. MINI MODULE to allow experiments with a duration of 4 month in the International Space Station the basic principle of which will be explained. In the context of aquaculture systems for BLSS the continuous replacement of removed fish biomass is an essential demand. Although fish reproduction seems not to be affected in the short-term space experiments with the C.E.B.A.S. MIMI MODULE a functional and reliable hatchery for the production of siblings under reduced weightlessness is connected with some serious problems. Therefore an automated “reproduction module” for the herbivorous fish Tilapia rendalli was developed as a laboratory prototype. It is concluded that aquatic modules of different degrees of complexity can optimize the productivity of BLSS based on higher land plants and that they offer an unique opportunity for the production of animal protein in lunar or planetary bases.     

“Space superiority”: Wernher von Braun's campaign for a nuclear-armed space station, 1946–1956

The literature on the history of spaceflight has depicted the early 1950s Collier’s articles mostly as a forerunner to the peaceful and scientific exploration of space. Yet the centerpiece of Wernher von Braun's plan was a manned space station that would serve as reconnaissance platform and orbiting battle station for achieving “space superiority” over the USSR. One its roles could be the launching of nuclear missiles. When challenged as to the station's defensibility, von Braun even posited pre-emptive atomic strikes from space as a response to the development of a hostile anti-satellite capability.     

Creating a productive international partnership in the Vision for Space Exploration

When US President George W. Bush on 14 January 2004 announced a new US “Vision for Space Exploration”, he called for international participation in “a journey, not a race”, a call received with skepticism and concern elsewhere. But, after a slow start in implementing this directive, during 2006 NASA has increased the forward momentum of action on the program and of discussions on international cooperation in exploring “the Moon, Mars, and beyond”. There are nevertheless a number of significant top-level issues that must be addressed if a cooperative approach to human space exploration is to be pursued. These include the relationship between utilization of the ISS and the lunar exploration plans, integration of potential partners’ current and future capabilities into the exploration plans, and the evolving space-related intentions of other countries.