Analysis of the orbit lifetime of CubeSats in low Earth orbits including periodic variation in drag due to attitude motion

It is estimated that more than 22,300 human-made objects are in orbit around the Earth, with a total mass above 8,400,000 kg. Around 89% of these objects are non-operational and without control, which makes them to be considered orbital debris. These numbers consider only objects with dimensions larger than 10 cm. Besides those numbers, there are also about 2000 operational satellites in orbit nowadays. The space debris represents a hazard to operational satellites and to the space operations. A major concern is that this number is growing, due to new launches and particles generated by collisions. Another important point is that the development of CubeSats has increased exponentially in the last years, increasing the number of objects in space, mainly in the Low Earth Orbits (LEO). Due to the short operational time, CubeSats boost the debris population. One of the requirements for space debris mitigation in LEO is the limitation of the orbital lifetime of the satellites, which needs to be lower than 25 years. However, there are space debris with longer estimated decay time. In LEÓs, the influence of the atmospheric drag is the main orbital perturbation, and is used in maneuvers to increment the losses in the satellite orbital energy, to locate satellites in constellations and to accelerate the decay.The goal of the present research is to study the influence of aerodynamic rotational maneuver in the CubeSat?s orbital lifetime. The rotational axis is orthogonal to the orbital plane of the CubeSat, which generates variations in the ballistic coefficient along the trajectory. The maneuver is proposed to accelerate the decay and to mitigate orbital debris generated by non-operational CubeSats. The panel method is selected to determine the drag coefficient as a function of the flow incident angle and the spinning rate. The pressure distribution is integrated from the satellite faces at hypersonic rarefied flow to calculate the drag coefficient. The mathematical model considers the gravitational potential of the Earth and the deceleration due to drag. To analyze the effects of the rotation during the decay, multiple trajectories were propagated, comparing the results obtained assuming a constant drag coefficient with trajectories where the drag coefficient changes periodically. The initial perigees selected were lower than 400 km of altitude with eccentricities ranging from 0.00 to 0.02. Six values for the angular velocity were applied in the maneuver. The technique of rotating the spacecraft is an interesting solution to increase the orbit decay of a CubeSat without implementing additional de-orbit devices. Significant changes in the decay time are presented due to the increase of the mean drag coefficient calculated by the panel method, when the maneuver is applied, reducing the orbital lifetime, however the results are independent of the angular velocity of the satellite.     

Drag coefficient modeling for grace using Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Drag coefficient is a major source of uncertainty in predicting the orbit of a satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO). Computational methods like the Test Particle Monte Carlo (TPMC) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are important tools in accurately computing physical drag coefficients. However, the methods are computationally expensive and cannot be employed real time. Therefore, modeling of the physical drag coefficient is required. This work presents a technique of developing parameterized drag coefficients models using the DSMC method. The technique is validated by developing a model for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite. Results show that drag coefficients computed using the developed model for GRACE agree to within 1% with those computed using DSMC.     

Modeling satellite drag coefficients with response surfaces

Satellite drag coefficients are a major source of uncertainty in predicting the drag force on satellites in low Earth orbit. Among other things, accurately predicting the orbit requires detailed knowledge of the satellite drag coefficient. Computational methods are an important tool in computing the drag coefficient but are too intensive for real-time and predictive applications. Therefore, analytic or empirical models that can accurately predict drag coefficients are desired. This work uses response surfaces to model drag coefficients. The response surface methodology is validated by developing a response surface model for the drag coefficient of a sphere where the closed-form solution is known. The response surface model performs well in predicting the drag coefficient of a sphere with a root mean square percentage error less than 0.3% over the entire parameter space. For more complex geometries, such as the GRACE satellite, the Hubble Space Telescope, and the International Space Station, the model errors are only slightly larger at about 0.9%, 0.6%, and 1.0%, respectively.     

Estimation of ballistic coefficients of low altitude debris objects from historical two line elements

This paper presents a new method for estimating ballistic coefficients (BCs) of low perigee debris objects from their historical two line elements (TLEs). The method uses the drag perturbation equation of the semi-major axis of the orbit. For an object with perigee altitude below 700 km, the variation in the mean semi-major axis derived from the TLE is mainly caused by the atmospheric drag effect, and therefore is used as the source in the estimation of the ballistic coefficient. The method is tested using the GRACE satellites, and a number of debris objects with external ballistic coefficient values, and agreements of about 10% are achieved.     

近圆低轨卫星星座相位保持方法

主要研究无轨道高度保持要求的近圆低轨卫星星座相位保持方法.首先根据轨道摄动理论，推导了考虑J2摄动和大气阻尼摄动的卫星相位漂移模型，分别给出基于固定基准星和基于虚拟基准星的相位偏差两种表达方法.在此基础上，按照星座各星轨道衰减一致和不一致两种情况，分别提出两种表示方法理论的和考虑实际控制误差的相位保持策略.通过一个walker星座仿真算例验证了两种方法的有效性.仿真结果显示，两种方法在各星轨道衰减一致和不一致两种情况均可有效完成相位维持任务，当各星轨道衰减一致时两种方法在控制次数和控制总量上无明显差异；在各星轨道衰减不一致情况下，基于固定基准星的相位保持策略更优.     

超低轨道卫星应用离子电推进技术方案

低地球轨道大气环境对诸如科学探测和对地观测卫星的阻尼作用十分明显,而且阻尼随太阳和地磁活动以及昼夜、季节交替变化范围宽。为了保证卫星轨道精度或飞行状态满足任务要求,需要利用推进系统对卫星受到的阻尼进行实时或间歇式补偿以实现轨道或飞行状态的保持。针对轨道高度220~268km的无拖曳飞行和轨道维持应用,基于卫星轨道阻尼变化和有效载荷指标要求分析,研究确定了离子电推进技术指标、推力调节方案、系统组成、推力控制方案和在轨应用策略,并对推力调节方案进行了试验验证。结果表明,与无拖曳飞行卫星任务匹配的离子电推进指标为推力调节范围1~20mN,推力分辨率优于12μN,与对地观测卫星轨道维持任务匹配的指标为推力调节范围1～25mN,推力分辨率100μN。研究提出的针对超低轨道卫星应用需求的高精度推力连续调节离子电推进技术方案,具有工程任务针对性和参考价值。     

光压摄动对卫星姿态轨道耦合的影响分析

随着卫星对地测量精度要求的不断提高, 对卫星轨道的精度要求也随之提高. 目前Topex, Jason-1, Jason-2等一系列海洋测地卫星的轨道计算精度已经达到厘米量级, 相应对卫星动力学模型的要求也越来越精细. 以Topex海洋测地卫星为背景, 考虑卫星帆板有规律的运动, 将其几何形状简化为高精度轨道计算中比较通用的Boxing-Wing模型, 计算了Topex卫星的Boxing-Wing模型在轨运行中受到的太阳光压力及光压力矩. 考虑卫星姿态和轨道耦合的情况下, 计算了太阳光压力及光压力矩对Topex卫星轨道半长轴和卫星姿态的影响. 通过一个轨道周期的计算可知, 光压对卫星轨道半长轴的影响大约为9cm, 对卫星滚动角和俯仰角的影响在6°左右, 因此, 在高精度的轨道计算和姿态控制中这个影响是应该考虑的.      

Instability of the present LEO satellite populations

Several studies conducted during 1991–2001 demonstrated, with some assumed launch rates, the future unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects. In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new breakup debris due to collisions would exceed the loss of objects due to orbital decay.     

Use of two-line element data for thermosphere neutral density model calibration

Traditional empirical thermospheric density models are widely used in orbit determination and prediction of low-Earth satellites. Unfortunately, these models often exhibit large density errors of up to around 30% RMS. Density errors translate into orbit errors, adversely affecting applications such as re-entry operations, manoeuvre planning, collision avoidance and precise orbit determination for geodetic missions. The extensive database of two-line element (TLE) orbit data contains a wealth of information on satellite drag, at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to allow a calibration of existing neutral density models with a latency of one to two days. In our calibration software, new TLE data for selected objects is converted to satellite drag data on a daily basis. The resulting drag data is then used in a daily adjustment of density model calibration parameters, which modify the output of an existing empirical density model with the aim of increasing its accuracy. Two different calibration schemes have been tested using TLE data for about 50 objects during the year 2000. The schemes involve either height-dependent scale factors to the density or corrections to CIRA-72 model temperatures, which affect the density output based on a physical model. Both schemes have been applied with different spherical harmonic expansions of the parameters in latitude and local solar time. Five TLE objects, varying in perigee altitude between 280 and 530 km, were deliberately not used during calibration, in order to provide independent validation. Even with a single daily parameter, the RMS density model error along their tracks can already be reduced from the 30% to the 15% level. Adding additional parameters results in RMS errors lower than 12%.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

Advanced analytical model for orbital aerodynamic prediction in LEO

The growing interest in low earth orbit (LEO) applications demands for accurate modeling of orbital aerodynamics. But classical analytical models of aerodynamic coefficients in free molecule flow, such as the Sentman’s model, Schamberg’s model and Schaaf-Chambre model, were built upon over simplistic gas-surface interaction models, which degrade the fidelity of aerodynamic prediction. This work presents a new analytical model of orbital aerodynamic coefficients based on the state-of-the-art Cercignani–Lampis–Lord (CLL) gas-surface interaction model, where lobular quasi-specular scattering pattern and separate accommodation degree for different velocity components can be well captured. A key component of the new model is a rigorous function approximation solution of the reflected normal momentum flux based on the CLL model which is derived for the first time and is validated within 1% for any hypothermal flow and surface accommodation conditions. Closed-form analytical solutions of aerodynamic coefficients for simple convex geometries are obtained and exhibit high accuracy (within 0.1%) in typical LEO scenarios. The new analytical model surpasses the classical models in some important aspects, such as overcoming the diffuse scattering hypothesis constraint, considering the variation of normal momentum exchange with the surface incidence angle and being applicable in any hypothermal flow situation. In virtue of the advanced CLL model and feasibility of coupling with the panel method technique, the new analytical model is promising to provide more accurate predictions on the orbital aerodynamic coefficients for LEO applications.     

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab’s High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E_10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a_p, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E_10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.     

Thermosphere density and wind measurements in the equatorial region using a constellation of drag balance nanospacecraft

A mission for in situ thermosphere density and winds measurement is described, based on nanospacecraft equipped with a drag balance instrument (DBI) and a GPS receiver. The mission is based on nanosatellite clusters deployed in three orbital planes. In this study, clusters of 10 nanospacecraft are considered, leading to a mission based on a total of 30 nanospacecraft. The geometry analyzed is a symmetrical one, including an equatorial orbit and two orbits with the same inclination and opposing ascending nodes. The main idea is that, by combining the accurate information on the satellite inertial position and velocity provided by the GPS receiver and the drag acceleration intensity provided by the DBI, due to the orbits’ geometrical configuration, both atmospheric drag and wind can be resolved in a region close to the orbit nodes. Exploiting the Earth oblateness effect, a complete scan of the equatorial regions can be accomplished in the short mission lifetime typical of very low Earth orbit satellites, even in high solar activity peaks, when the expected nanospacecraft lifetime is about 40 days.     

Periodic Variations of Drag Coefficient for the ANDE Spherical Satellites During its Lifetime

A drag coefficient (C_D) inversion method is introduced to study the variations of the drag coefficient for orbital satellites with spherical geometry. Drag coefficients of the four micro satellites in the Atmospheric Neutral Density Experiment (ANDE) are compiled out with this new method. The Lomb-Scargle Periodgram (LSP) analysis of the four ANDE satellites' C_D series has shown that there are obvious 5, 7, 9, and 27 days' period in those data. Interesting results are found through comparing the LSP analysis with series of the daily solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F_10.7 index), the Ap index, and the daily averaged solar wind speed at 1AU. All series in the same time interval have an obvious period of about 27 days, which has already been explained as the association with the 27 days' solar rotation. The oscillating periods less than 27 days are found in series of C_D, Ap and solar wind speed at 1AU, e.g., the 5, 7, 9 days period. However, these short periods disappeared in the time series of F_10.7 index. The same periodicities of 5, 7, 9 days in Ap and solar wind are presented at the same time interval during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. While in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, these short oscillations are not so obvious as that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23. These results provide definite evidence that the C_D variations with period of 5, 7 and 9 days are produced by a combination of space weather effects caused by the solar wind and geomagnetic activity.      

基于TLE的Starlink星座第一阶段部署情况分析

近年来,随着卫星技术的快速发展和低轨（low earth orbit,LEO）卫星宽带互联网建设需求的不断增加,低轨大规模星座发展日新月异。针对Starlink星座初始化部署问题,首先论述了“星链”（Starlink）星座现状,分析在轨卫星高度变化。然后利用公开的两行轨道根数（two-line element,TLE）,从卫星发射入轨、轨道面分布两个方面,简要分析了Starlink星座的部署情况,给出升交点的变化规律;同时仿真分析了Starlink星座对地面的覆盖性能。最后,给出星座轨道面和相位分布、故障卫星处置以及可见卫星数量。所分析的结果以期为中国未来部署大规模LEO星座的建设提供借鉴。     

Orbit determination of BeiDou navigation satellite system maneuvered satellites based on instantaneous velocity pulses parameters

The BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS) comprises geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites as well as inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) and medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites. Owing to their special orbital characteristics, GEO satellites require frequent orbital maneuvers to ensure that they operate in a specific orbital window. The availability of the entire system is affected during the maneuver period because service cannot be provided before the ephemeris is restored. In this study, based on the conventional dynamic orbit determination method for navigation satellites, multiple sets of instantaneous velocity pulses parameters which belong to one of pseudo-stochastic parameters were used to simulate the orbital maneuver process in the orbital maneuver arc and establish the observed and predicted orbits of the maneuvered and non-maneuvered satellites of BeiDou regional navigation satellite system (BDS-2) and BeiDou global navigation satellite system (BDS-3). Finally, the single point positioning (SPP) technology was used to verify the accuracy of the observed and predicted orbits. The orbit determination accuracy of maneuvered satellites can be greatly improved by using the orbit determination method proposed in this paper. The overlapping orbit determination accuracy of maneuvered GEO satellites of BDS-2 and BDS-3 can improve 2–3 orders of magnitude. Among them, the radial orbit determination accuracy of each maneuvered satellite is basically better than 1 m. simultaneously, the combined orbit determination of the maneuvered and non-maneuvered satellites does not have a great impact on the orbit determination accuracy of the non-maneuvered satellites. Compared with the multi GNSS products (indicated by GBM) from the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the impact of adding the maneuvered satellites on the orbit determination accuracy of BDS-2 satellites is less than 9 %. Furthermore, the orbital recovery time and the service availability period are significantly improved. When the node of the predicted orbit is traversed approximately 3 h after the maneuver, the accuracy of the predicted orbit of the maneuvered satellite can reach that of the observed orbit. The SPP results for the BDS reached a normal level when the node of the predicted orbit was 2 h after the maneuver.     

ERS-1 radial position refinement by dual crossover analysis with TOPEX/Poseidon

Achieving orbital accuracies in the radial direction for ERS-1 commensurate with those for TOPEX/Poseidon is of utmost importance for the integration of the two altimeter data sets. This paper outlines a procedure whereby the radial orbit error for ERS-1 is recovered as a time series expansion in the form of a finite Fourier series with additional terms for atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and initial state vector mismodelling. Using a least squares collocation method with constraints derived from the JGM2 gravity field co-variance matrix, the radial error is recovered using both dual crossovers and ERS-1 single satellite crossovers. Aggregate arcs are then used to derive the ERS-1 orbit error over the repeat period of 35 days. The results are presented in the improvement of fit in the dual crossover, ERS-1 crossover and altimetry data sets as well as the recovery of an altimeter bias for the two satellites.     

Measuring atmospheric density using GPS–LEO tracking data

We present a method to estimate the total neutral atmospheric density from precise orbit determination of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. We derive the total atmospheric density by determining the drag force acting on the LEOs through centimeter-level reduced-dynamic precise orbit determination (POD) using onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking data. The precision of the estimated drag accelerations is assessed using various metrics, including differences between estimated along-track accelerations from consecutive 30-h POD solutions which overlap by 6 h, comparison of the resulting accelerations with accelerometer measurements, and comparison against an existing atmospheric density model, DTM-2000. We apply the method to GPS tracking data from CHAMP, GRACE, SAC-C, Jason-2, TerraSAR-X and COSMIC satellites, spanning 12 years (2001–2012) and covering orbital heights from 400 km to 1300 km. Errors in the estimates, including those introduced by deficiencies in other modeled forces (such as solar radiation pressure and Earth radiation pressure), are evaluated and the signal and noise levels for each satellite are analyzed. The estimated density data from CHAMP, GRACE, SAC-C and TerraSAR-X are identified as having high signal and low noise levels. These data all have high correlations with anominal atmospheric density model and show common features in relative residuals with respect to the nominal model in related parameter space. On the contrary, the estimated density data from COSMIC and Jason-2 show errors larger than the actual signal at corresponding altitudes thus having little practical value for this study. The results demonstrate that this method is applicable to data from a variety of missions and can provide useful total neutral density measurements for atmospheric study up to altitude as high as 715 km, with precision and resolution between those derived from traditional special orbital perturbation analysis and those obtained from onboard accelerometers.     

NRLMSISE-00大气模型与GRACE和CHAMP卫星大气密度数据的对比分析

利用GRACE(Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment)和CHAMP(Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload)卫星2002-2008年的大气密度数据与NRLMSISE-00大气模型密度结果进行比较,分析了模型密度误差及其特点.结果显示,NRLMSISE-00大气模型计算的密度值普遍偏大,其相对误差随经纬度变化,在高纬度相对较小;相对误差随地方时变化,在02:00LT和15:00LT左右较大,10:00LT和20:00LT左右较小.通过模型密度相对误差与太阳F_10.7指数的对比分析发现,在太阳活动低年模型相对误差最大,而在太阳活动高年相对误差较小;将模型结果分别与GRACEA/B双星和CHAMP卫星的密度数据进行比较,发现对于轨道高度更高的GRACE卫星轨道,模型相对误差更大;在地磁平静期,相对误差与地磁ap指数(当前3h)相关性不强,但是在大磁暴发生时,误差急剧增大.      

基于GNSS的高轨卫星定位技术研究

利用全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)进行导航定位具有全球、全天候、实时和高精度的优点,应用于高地球轨道(HEO)卫星的定位,能够提供精确的轨道和姿态确定,并且可以克服目前主要利用地面测控系统对HEO卫星进行定位的设备复杂、投资高等缺点,使得自主导航成为可能.本文对利用GNSS的高轨卫星定位相关技术进行了研究,分析了单一GNSS系统和多个GNSS组合系统的卫星可见性、动态性和几何精度因子(GDOP).通过仿真分析表明,利用组合GNSS系统并通过提高GNSS接收机灵敏度的方法,可以解决GNSS进行HEO卫星定位的相关问题,并能保证HEO卫星定位精度的要求.