Prediction of solar particle event proton doses using early dose rate measurements

A methodology for predicting solar particle event doses using Bayesian inference is being developed. As part of this development, we have tested criteria for categorization of new solar particle events (SPE) using calculated asymptotic doses and dose rates for the 22 SPEs that occurred in 2001. In 9 out of 22 events, our criteria for categorization would have over-predicted the range of asymptotic doses in which the tested events would have fallen. In two cases, our methodology under-predicted the dose range in which the event would have fallen. In order to better predict a new event's group category and thus, to better restrict the Bayesian inference predictive model parameter space, we have reexamined our dose rate criteria for categorization of new events. We report the updating of the grouping criteria using data from the 22 SPEs of 2001, as well as five additional SPEs. Using the revised grouping criteria, we present an analysis of group categorization prediction results for the first ten SPEs of 2002.     

典型卫星轨道的位移损伤剂量计算与分析

位移损伤剂量是评估电子元器件在轨发生位移损伤导致性能退化的重要参数。文章首先给出了位移损伤剂量的等效原理和计算方法,即用位移损伤等效注量来表征卫星轨道带电粒子导致的位移损伤剂量;之后分别采用3种不同的太阳质子注量模型,计算了典型大椭圆轨道的位移损伤等效注量,并结合计算结果对不同模型的特点和适用性进行了分析;其后针对4种典型卫星轨道,计算了不同飞行寿命期内的位移损伤等效注量,发现不同轨道的位移损伤剂量有较大差异,并结合空间带电粒子辐射环境分布特点及卫星轨道参数等分析了差异的产生原因;最后,分析不同的太阳质子注量预估方法对位移损伤剂量计算结果的影响,总结了不同轨道、不同飞行寿命情况下卫星经受的带电粒子辐射环境的严酷程度。研究结果可为卫星内部元器件位移损伤效应防护工作提供参考。     

Estimation of radiation risk for astronauts on the Moon

The problem of estimating the risk of radiation for humans on the Moon is discussed, taking into account the probabilistic nature of occurrence of solar particle events. Calculations of the expected values of tissue-averaged equivalent dose rates, which are created by galactic and solar cosmic-ray particle fluxes on the lunar surface behind shielding, are made for different durations of lunar missions.     

Space radiation analysis: Radiation effects and particle interaction outside the Earth's magnetosphere using GRAS and GEANT4

In order to explore the Moon and Mars it is necessary to investigate the hazards due to the space environment and especially ionizing radiation. According to previous papers, much information has been presented in radiation analysis inside the Earth's magnetosphere, but much of this work was not directly relevant to the interplanetary medium. This work intends to explore the effect of radiation on humans inside structures such as the ISS and provide a detailed analysis of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar proton events (SPEs) using SPENVIS (Space Environment Effects and Information System) and CREME96 data files for particle flux outside the Earth's magnetosphere. The simulation was conducted using GRAS, a European Space Agency (ESA) software based on GEANT4. Dose and equivalent dose have been calculated as well as secondary particle effects and GCR energy spectrum. The calculated total dose effects and equivalent dose indicate the risk and effects that space radiation could have on the crew, these values are calculated using two different types of structures, the ISS and the TransHab modules. Final results indicate the amounts of radiation expected to be absorbed by the astronauts during long duration interplanetary flights; this denotes importance of radiation shielding and the use of proper materials to reduce the effects.     

影响GEO卫星长寿命高可靠的空间环境因素及其评估、验证和保障技术研究

文章叙述了空间环境与卫星长寿命高可靠的关系,着重分析了影响GEO卫星长寿命高可靠的各种空间环境效应,如:地磁亚暴电子造成的卫星表面带电及诱导的二次放电、辐射带高能电子引起卫星内带电、太阳耀斑质子和银河宇宙射线造成的单粒子效应、空间带电粒子和太阳电磁辐照造成的辐照总剂量效应以及空间环境下敏感表面的污染效应等.文章最后给出GEO卫星空间环境效应的评估、验证和保障技术研究的必要性及其主要研究方向.     

等效位移损伤剂量法预测GaInP2/GaAs/Ge 三结电池在轨性能退化规律

文章首先在辐照条件下测试GaInP2/GaAs/Ge三结太阳电池的光谱响应,确定了三结电池在轨道带电粒子辐照条件下的损伤特征。通过试验获得了在不同粒子辐照条件下电池电性能退化规律,由此确定了高能电子与质子辐照对三结电池损伤的等效参数,建立了三结电池最大输出功率随位移损伤剂量的退化方程。在此基础上,以地球同步轨道服役的太阳电池为例,计算了电池在轨等效位移损伤剂量,并对三结电池的在轨服役行为进行了评价。     

FY-1C/D极轨气象卫星空间粒子成分监测器及其在轨探测结果

介绍了风云一号(FY-1)C，D极轨气象卫星空间粒子成分监测器的任务目标、主要功能和工程指标。以及数据的获取和处理方法。给出了空间环境宁静期、地磁扰动事件、太阳质子事件、与太阳活动的关系和粒子长期变化等探测结果，并进行了相应的分析。对C，D星空间粒子成分监测器分别进行的5年和第二次在轨测试结果表明，两星监测器工作正常、性能稳定，探测数据可靠。     

Space radiation enhancement linked to geomagnetic disturbances

Space radiation dosimetry measurements have been made on board the Space Shuttle. A newly developed active detector called "Real-time Radiation Monitoring Device (RRMD)" was used (Doke et al., 1995; Hayashi et al., 1995). The RRMD results indicate that low Linear Energy Transfer (LET) particles steadily penetrate around the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) without clear enhancement of dose equivalent and some daily periodic enhancements of dose equivalent due to high LET particles are seen at the lower geomagnetic cutoff regions (Doke et al., 1996). We also have been analyzing the space weather during the experiment, and found that the anomalous high-energy particle enhancement was linked to geomagnetic disturbance due to the high speed solar wind from a coronal hole. Additional analysis and other experiments are necessary for clarification of these phenomena. If a penetration of high-energy particles into the low altitude occurs by common geomagnetic disturbances, the prediction of geomagnetic activity becomes more important in the next Space Station's era.     

Study of radiation conditions onboard the International space station by means of the Liulin-5 dosimeter

For estimating radiation risk in space flights it is necessary to determine radiation dose obtained by critical organs of a human body. For this purpose the experiments with human body models are carried out onboard spacecraft. These models represent phantoms equipped with passive and active radiation detectors which measure dose distributions at places of location of critical organs. The dosimetric Liulin-5 telescope is manufactured with using three silicon detectors for studying radiation conditions in the spherical tissue-equivalent phantom on the Russian segment of the International space station (ISS). The purpose of the experiment with Liulin-5 instrument is to study dynamics of the dose rate and particle flux in the phantom, as well as variations of radiation conditions on the ISS over long time intervals depending on a phase of the solar activity cycle, orbital parameters, and presence of solar energetic particles. The Liulin-5 dosimeter measures simultaneously the dose rate and fluxes of charged particles at three depths in the radial channel of the phantom, as well as the linear energy transfer. The paper presents the results of measurements of dose rate and particle fluxes caused by various radiation field components on the ISS during the period from June 2007 till December 2009.     

Dose estimates in a lunar shelter with regolith shielding

Beyond the Earth's atmosphere, galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a significant hazard to both manned and robotic missions. For long human missions on the lunar surface (months to a year) a radiation shelter is needed for dose mitigation and emergency protection in case of solar events. This paper investigates the interaction of source protons of solar events like those of February 1956 that emitted many fewer particles with energies up to 1000 MeV and of the October 1989 event of lower protons energy but higher fluence, with the lunar regolith and aluminum shielding of a lunar shelter. The shelter is 5 m in diameter and has a footprint of 5×8 m and a 10 cm thick aluminum support structure, however, actual thickness could be much smaller (～1–2 cm) depending on the weight of the regolith shielding piled on top. The regolith is shown to be slightly more effective than aluminum. Thus, the current results are still applicable for a thinner aluminum structure and increased equivalent (or same mass) thickness of the regolith. The shielding thicknesses to reduce the dose solely due to solar protons in the lunar shelter below those recommended by NASA to astronauts for 30 day-operation in space (250 mSv) and for radiation workers (50 mSv) are determined and compared. The relative attenuation of incident solar protons with regolith shielding and the dose estimates inside the shelter are calculated for center seeking, planar, and isotropic incidence of the source protons. With the center seeking incidence, the dose estimates are the highest, followed by those with isotropic incidence, and the lowest are those with the planar incidence.     

地球辐射带槽区粒子环境动态变化对中轨卫星辐射效应的影响

中轨卫星运行于地球辐射带槽区,而槽区粒子辐射环境可能存在显著涨落,增加卫星抗辐射设计输入的不确定性。文章利用典型地球辐射带模型,对中轨卫星累积性辐射效应的主要来源进行深入分析,再结合槽区粒子辐射环境动态变化特征,初步量化分析其对中轨卫星遭遇辐射效应的影响。结果表明:槽区粒子辐射环境的动态变化对星表材料及太阳电池辐射损伤的附加影响较小;槽区质子填充事件对8000 km以上高度轨道的电离总剂量有明显影响（但此类事件遭遇概率很低）;槽区电子填充事件使10 000 km以上高度轨道的电离总剂量明显增大,这点必须在相应的卫星抗辐射设计要求中予以考虑。     

Using radiation risk for assessment of space radiation hazard

Radiation hazard caused by exposure during a spaceflight is characterized by radiobiological consequences at all levels of organism. These consequences have a stochastic nature. Even deterministic effects are basically random quantity having all attributes of such mathematical values. The radiation risk is defined in this case as an additional probability of health damage or as a death probability in extreme case. For the manned spaceflight additional peculiarity of a human’s exposure is added. A natural space radiation environment has a stochastic character because solar particle events and crew of a spacecraft can be exposed to dose from background level up to lethal one.The report presents a procedure of radiation risk assessment for quantitative expression of radiation hazard level during a flight and using this value for developing protection recommendations. It is emphasized that the risk value is connected specifically with the time interval of possible hazard’s existent. The form of risk representation must be chosen depending on a time scale of radiobiological processes induced by the exposure (expressing in fact the radiation hazard model). Surviving function specified for the crewmember mortality rate changed by the professional exposure must be used for risk calculation. Solar particle events determine a stochastic character of radiation environment in space that must be taken into account for a risk assessment. The reliability of radiation risk assessment can be used for this goal.     

Interplanetary crew dose estimates for worst case solar particle events based on historical data for the Carrington flare of 1859

Over the past two decades, hypothetical models of “worst-case” solar particle event (SPE) spectra have been proposed in order to place an upper bound on radiation doses to critical body organs of interplanetary crews on deep space missions. These event spectra are usually formulated using hypothetical extrapolations of space measurements for previous large events. Here we take a different approach. Recently reported analyses of ice core samples indicate that the Carrington flare of 1859 is the largest event observed in the past 500 years. These ice core data yield estimates of the proton fluence for energies greater than 30 MeV, but provide no other spectrum information. Assuming that the proton energy distribution for such an event is similar to that measured for other recent, large events, interplanetary crew doses are estimated for these hypothetical worst case SPE spectra. These estimated doses are life threatening unless substantial shielding is provided.     

不同内边界条件下SEP事件实例的集合数值模拟及其在SEP事件预报中的应用

太阳高能粒子(SEP)事件的定量数值预报是空间态势感知的重要方面之一.SEP事件主要来自于日冕物质抛射(CME)所驱动的激波扩散加速(DSA).文章在三个有关模型的基础上,结合1 AU处卫星的太阳风观测参数和日冕仪的CME观测参数,建立了一套可用于预报SEP事件的数值方法.利用该方法对一次SEP实例进行数值模拟,并将模...     

Rapid assessment of radiobiological doses for terrestrial and interplanetary space missions

This paper presents the doses levels expected in orbits in chart form, covering the range 300-800 km of altitude and 0-90 degrees of inclination behind shieldings similar to the Hermes spacecraft and the EVA spacesuit matter distributions. These charts allow users to rapidly find the radiobiological dose received in the most critical organs of the human body either in normal situations or during a large solar event. Outside the magnetosphere, during interplanetary or lunar missions, when the dose received during crossing of the radiation belts become negligible, the dose is due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar flares. The correct radiobiological assessment of the components of this radiation field becomes a major problem. On the Moon a permanent ground-based station can be shielded by lunar materials against meteoroids and radiations. The radiobiological hazard, essentially linked to the solar flare risk during the transfer phase and the extra-station activities, may be solved by mission planning. For interplanetary flights the problem comes from both increased risk of solar events and from the continuous exposure to GCR. These energetic particles cannot be easily stopped by shieldings; cost considerations imply that more effective materials must be used. Impact on the vehicle design and the mission planning is important.     

Estimates of Carrington-class solar particle event radiation exposures as a function of altitude in the atmosphere of Mars

Radiation exposure estimates for crew members on the surface of Mars may vary widely because of the large variations in terrain altitude. The maximum altitude difference between the highest (top of Olympus Mons) and the lowest (bottom of the Hellas impact basin) points on Mars is about 32 km. In this work estimates of radiation exposures as a function of altitude, from the Hellas impact basin to Olympus Mons, are made for a solar particle event proton radiation environment comparable to the Carrington event of 1859. We assume that the proton energy distribution for this Carrington-type event is similar to that of the Band Function fit of the February 1956 event. In this work we use the HZETRN 2010 radiation transport code, originally developed at NASA Langley Research Center, and the Computerized Anatomical Male and Female human geometry models to estimate exposures for aluminum shield areal densities similar to those provided by a spacesuit, surface lander, and permanent habitat as a function of altitude in the Mars atmosphere. Comparisons of the predicted organ exposures with current NASA Permissible Exposure Limits (PELs) are made.     

Some Results of Monitoring the Radiation Conditions onboard the <Emphasis Type="Italic">International Space Station</Emphasis> (2000–2003)

For a reliable prediction of dose loads on a crew and its habitation environment, which, so far, cannot be calculated with sufficient accuracy, an experimental study of the dynamics of radiation situation characteristics in the modules of the manned International Space Station (ISS) is carried out. The results of prompt monitoring and individual dose control of the crews of seven basic missions in the period of flight from August 1, 2000, to October 28, 2003, are presented. This period of time coincided with the maximum phase of solar activity. On the basis of comparing the measurement data, it was shown that the value of an accumulated individual absorbed dose did not exceed the limits of readings of a two-channel standard R-16 radiometer. The power of the radiation dose absorbed by crew members lies within the range 0.017–0.02 cGy/day and mainly depends on the solar activity level.     

Absorbed doses in October–November 2003 onboard the Russian segment of the International Space Station according to the data of radiation control system

The results of radiation control onboard the Service Module of the International Space Station are considered for the period of increased radiation background from 28 to 30 October, 2003. The values of additional irradiation dose caused by strong solar proton events on October 28 and 29, 2003 are obtained. A comparison is made with similar data obtained in the periods of disturbed radiation conditions of fall 2001. The results of estimating the dependence of the absorbed dose on the shield thickness, based on the onboard measurements, are presented. It is established that the daily-averaged dose power onboard the International Space Station increased after the solar proton events of October 2003.     

Fast solar sail rendezvous mission to near Earth asteroids

The concept of fast solar sail rendezvous missions to near Earth asteroids is presented by considering the hyperbolic launch excess velocity as a design parameter. After introducing an initial constraint on the hyperbolic excess velocity, a time optimal control framework is derived and solved by using an indirect method. The coplanar circular orbit rendezvous scenario is investigated first to evaluate the variational trend of the transfer time with respect to different hyperbolic excess velocities and solar sail characteristic accelerations. The influence of the asteroid orbital inclination and eccentricity on the transfer time is studied in a parametric way. The optimal direction and magnitude of the hyperbolic excess velocity are identified via numerical simulations. The found results for coplanar circular scenarios are compared in terms of fuel consumption to the corresponding bi-impulsive transfer of the same flight time, but without using a solar sail. The fuel consumption tradeoff between the required hyperbolic excess velocity and the achievable flight time is discussed. The required total launch mass for a particular solar sail is derived in analytical form. A practical mission application is proposed to rendezvous with the asteroid 99942 Apophis by using a solar sail in combination with the provided hyperbolic excess velocity.     

Detection and Prediction of Absorbed Radiation Doses from Solar Proton Fluxes onboard Orbital Stations

We consider cases of simultaneous detection of the absorbed doses produced by proton fluxes of powerful solar events onboard the Mir and ISS orbital stations and the Ekspress A3 geosynchronous satellite. Experimental data are analyzed using a software package that takes into account the energy spectra of protons at the Earth's orbit depending on the time of event evolution, as well as their penetration to near-earth orbits and through the protective shields of spacecraft. Based on a comparison of the experimental data of dosimeters with the calculation of absorbed doses under the action of solar proton events, we developed a method of estimating the effective thickness of the shielding of dosimeters and made some estimates. A possibility is considered for predicting the radiation hazard onboard orbital stations upon the appearance of solar proton events using dosimeter data from a geosynchronous orbit.