第21～24太阳周4类空间天气事件爆发特征统计分析

对第21～24太阳周不同等级的太阳X射线耀斑事件、太阳质子事件、地磁暴事件及高能电子增强事件的爆发频次特征进行统计,结果表明:太阳周耀斑爆发的总数量与该太阳周的黑子数峰值呈正比,耀斑总数、X级耀斑事件数与峰值的相关系数分别为0.974,0.997;太阳质子事件主要发生在峰年前后1～2年,约占总发生次数的80%,峰值通量大于10pfu （1 pfu=1 cm-2·sr-1·s-1）的质子事件中,84%伴有耀斑爆发,并且主要伴随M或X级耀斑,少量伴随C级耀斑,峰值通量大于1000pfu的质子事件中,98%伴随M或X级耀斑,并且以X级耀斑为主;第21,22,23和24太阳周发生地磁暴最频繁的时间分别在1982,1991,2003年和2015年,分别滞后黑子数峰值时间3年、2年、2年和1年;72%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周下降期,24%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周上升期.      

影响地球环境的太阳质子事件的时间过程

利用1966年以来的大量太阳耀斑以及相应质子事件的资料,分析研究了质子事件到达时间和极大时间同耀斑经度位置的统计关系.结果表明当耀斑位置处于经过地球的行星际大尺度场磁力线足点位置附近时,上述两种时间过程最短.这个结果支持了太阳耀斑粒子经日冕传播再向行星际空间传播的二阶段传播模型.      

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

太阳质子耀斑X射线辐射特征及质子事件警报

太阳质子耀斑X射线辐射特征的研究, 为太阳质子事件的警报提供一个重要的途径和方法。本文分析了第21周太阳活动峰年(1977—1986)期间质子耀斑和相应的GOES和SMM卫星观测的X射线辐射资料, 结果表明:大部分质子耀斑的硬X射线峰值流量F_HX≥104s/c;积分流量F₀≥106counts;硬X射线辐射到达峰值时间T_R≥100s;持续时间T_D≥103s;X光子最高能量E_x≥300keV;平均能谱指数√r≤3.5;高能时延T_L≥10s。利用这些X射线暴的特征参数, 对第21周峰年大质子事件作警报检验, 结果是:报准率为94％, 虚报率为40％。      

太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑的关系

通过对0°W-39°W,40°W-70°W,71°W-90°W经度范围内太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑的相关性计算分析,发现太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑的相关系数依赖于经度.太阳耀斑积分与地球磁链接区域（40°W-70°W）太阳质子事件强度的相关系数最大.相关系数的这种特点与耀斑加速粒子的最大流量只出现在磁链接区域的特征相吻合.计算结果表明,太阳耀斑对太阳质子事件具有贡献,即耀斑对E ≥ 10MeV的质子加速有贡献.耀斑和CME在磁链接区域对太阳质子事件的贡献相同,这说明太阳质子事件是混合型事件.      

一种新的太阳质子事件警报方法的探讨

本文分析了第21太阳活动周后半期的太阳质子耀斑硬X射线辐射资料, 发现它们的峰值流量、积分流量、上升沿斜率、X光子的最高能量和持续时间等物理参数之间有着不同于非质子耀斑的相关性。据此, 本文采用模糊聚类分析法, 对21太阳活动周期间(1980.2—1986.2)的质子事件进行预报试验。其报准率为88.5%, 虚报率为53.1%, 漏报率为11.5%。本文提供了基于X射线辐射特征的太阳质子事件警报的新途径和方法。      

太阳质子事件警报

采用人工神经网络预报方法,利用太阳耀斑的日面位置、X射线辐射的峰值流量及其上升时间、2695MHz和8800MHz微波辐射的半积分流量等5个物理参量,提出了一个新的太阳质子事件警报方案,预报太阳质子事件的发生及其流量和时间．该方案在本文检验中达到93．75％的预报准确率．     

太阳质子耀斑的一个统计性质

本文研究太阳质子耀斑相对于太阳光球大尺度平均磁场中性线的分布, 给出一个新得到的质子耀斑的统计性质。研究太阳质子事件及其源耀斑的统计性质, 是太阳物理和空间物理学的重要前沿课题。从太阳活动预报及地球空间环境预报研究的角度看, 一个重要的问题是质子耀斑在      

“风云一号（B）”卫星探测到的太阳质子事件

我国“风云一号(B)”气象卫星于1990年9月3日发射入轨,该星载有粒子成分监测器,用来探测空间粒子辐射环境,其中包括测量太阳耀斑时产生的太阳质子事件及其重粒子丰度;银河宇宙线异常成分与强度;内辐射带磁异常区的粒子通量及重粒子成分,“风云一号(B)”卫星运行半年来,我们已获取了上述有关的粒子辐射资料,在卫星上获得这些资料在我国尚属首次,本文主要分析观测到的太阳质子事件。     

太阳耀斑预警卫星设想

太阳耀斑发出的高能粒子流(质子)时常中断地球及卫星的无线电通信。1989年3月的太阳耀斑干扰了气象卫星和通信卫星的工作,使地球磁场产生磁暴,造成加拿大和瑞典的停电,中断了电话、导航和高频无线电通信,单是加拿大断电9小时就造成30～60亿美元的损失。法国科学家提议建立太阳耀斑空间早期警报网。这个警报网利用能量在10～100兆电子伏的质子流运动比电磁波慢得多的特点。所以,理论上在离太阳较近的空间飞行器能探测到它并用无线电波向地面报警,无线电波将比质子流起码抢先10分钟,时常领先50分钟到达地球。这样,卫星关闭开关,预     

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

同无黑子耀斑相协的微波爆发机制的探讨

1980—1984年期间,我们在云南天文台9375MHz,3653MHz和2902 HHz三个波段的射电观测资料中,查到11组微波爆发与无黑子耀斑相伴随。本文研究了这些爆发与耀斑的大气层高度,射电爆发类型以及通过落进峰值流量-时间图的位置,确认出爆发机制是活动区中作麦克斯韦分布电子的热轫致辐射。     

SEP events and multi-spacecraft observations: Constraints on theory

Fifteen solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been analyzed using proton flux data recorded by the Helios 1, Helios 2, and IMP 8 spacecraft in the energy range ∼4–40 MeV during 1974–1982. For each of the events at least two of the spacecraft have their nominal magnetic footpoint within 20° in heliocentric longitude from each other. The SEP events are sub-grouped as a function of their heliocentric longitudinal separation and heliocentric radial distance from the SEP associated solar flare and several case studies are presented in this paper. Main results concerning their usage in estimating the SEP radial dependence are given. Moreover, we investigate the behavior of the third not connected spacecraft in order to study the dependence of the proton flux as a function of flare location. It is found that the contribution of the longitudinal gradient in determining variations in the SEP proton flux is particularly relevant for spacecraft having their magnetic connection footpoint separated from the flare between 30° and 50°.     

Unexpected burst of solar activity recorded by neutron monitors during October–November 2003

During the extreme burst of solar activity in October–November 2003, a series of outstanding events distinguished by their magnitude and peculiarities were recorded by the ground based neutron monitor network. The biggest and most productive in 23rd solar cycle active region 486 generated the most significant series of solar flares among of which the flare X28/3B on November 4, 2003 was the mostly powerful over the history of X-ray solar observations. The fastest arrival of the interplanetary disturbance from the Sun after the flare event in August 1972 and the highest solar wind velocity and IMF intensity were observed during these events. In one-week period three ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays were recorded by neutron monitor network (28, 29 October and 2 November 2003). Maximum proton energy in these events seems to be ranged from 5 to 10 GeV. Joint analysis of data from ground level stations (neutron monitors) and satellite measurements allows the estimation of the particle path length, the onset time of the injection on the Sun and some other proton flux characteristics.     

Relative importance of solar X-rays below 10 Å and pulsed HF radiowave absorption at 2.132 MHz frequency over Delhi under solar flare conditions

The computed photoionization rates in the discrete wavelength bands in the XUV spectra under quiet sun, moderate flare, strong flare and outstanding flare conditions have been presented graphically as a function of altitude in the height range 50 – 90 km to show the relative importance of solar X-rays below 10 Å. Ionospheric absorption data, measured by A₁ technique at the Ionosphere Research Centre at the University of Delhi, Delhi (28.6°N) at a single radio wave frequency of 2.132 MHz have been analyzed under solar flare conditions, with a special emphasis on a solar flare event on 3 February, 1983 which started at 1115 IST, reached its peak at 1140 IST and persisted till 1400 IST, during which time the radio wave absorption exceeded 60 or 65 dB for nearly three and half hours. During solar flare, a direct correlation between large enhancements of solar X-ray flux and ionospheric absorption is observed.     

2006年12月13日太阳射电暴对GPS观测的影响

日地空间环境不仅影响航天器运行和安全, 也是导航、定位和通信等无线 电应用系统主要的误差源. 其中来自太阳L波段的射电暴被认为是全球导航卫星 系统(GNSS)稳定和性能的潜在威胁因素, 当L波段射电爆发达到一定阈值时, 将给用户带来不同程度的射电噪声干扰, 严重时会引起接收机失锁和定位服务 中断. 本文对2006年12月13日太阳射电暴对GPS造成的影响进行了研究, 利用太阳射电 观测数据、L波段闪烁观测数据和向阳面不同区域的GPS观测网数据, 分析 GPS观测对射电暴的响应. 结果表明, 此次事件对GPS观测产生了明显的影响, 射 电暴期间GPS发生幅度闪烁事件和明显失锁现象, 多个台站上空的多颗GPS 卫星 信号完全中断长达6min左右, 且多个台站上空锁定的卫星数目小于4颗, 使 得GPS定位完全失效. 相对而言, 射电暴期间日下点附近的GPS台站受到的影响 比远离日下点的大.