考虑认知不确定的雷达功率放大系统可靠性评估

高可靠性部件短时间内很难得到足够的性能数据,致使对部件退化规律的认知存在一定不确定性,无法准确估计系统的可靠性。为实现对系统可靠性准确估计,假定部件性能参数的分布参数为区间变量,建立了基于区间变量的部件性能参数分布模型,给出了部件状态概率的计算方法。对状态性能区间边界进行补偿,定义了区间通用生成函数及其运算法则,提出了考虑认知不确定性的多态系统可靠性评估方法,并对某型雷达功率放大分系统的可靠性进行分析。本文方法克服了性能参数分布信息缺少、无法准确建立状态性能参数分布模型的不足,具有很强的通用性和工程应用价值。      

Optimal solar sail trajectory approximation with finite Fourier series

The heliocentric transfer of a solar sail-based spacecraft is usually studied from an optimal perspective, by looking for the control law that minimizes the total flight time. The optimal control problem can be solved either with an indirect approach, whose solution is difficult to obtain due to its sensitivity to an initial guess of the costates, or with a direct method, which requires a good estimate of a feasible (guess) trajectory. This work presents a procedure to generate an approximate optimal trajectory through a finite Fourier series. The minimum time problem is solved using a nonlinear programming solver, in which the optimization parameters are the coefficients of the Fourier series and the positions of the spacecraft along the initial and target orbits. Suitable constraints are enforced on the direction and magnitude of the sail propulsive acceleration vector in order to obtain feasible solutions. A comparison with the numerical results from an indirect approach shows that the proposed method provides a good approximation of the optimal trajectory with a small computational effort.     

Effects of optical parameter measurement uncertainties and solar irradiance fluctuations on solar sailing

The heliocentric orbital dynamics of a spacecraft propelled by a solar sail is affected by some uncertainty sources, including possible inaccuracies in the measurement of the sail film optical properties. Moreover, the solar radiation pressure, which is responsible for the solar sail propulsive acceleration generation, is not time-constant and is subject to fluctuations that are basically unpredictable and superimposed to the well-known 11-year solar activity cycle. In this context, this work aims at investigating the effects of such uncertainties on the actual heliocentric trajectory of a solar sail by means of stochastic simulations performed with a generalized polynomial chaos procedure. The numerical results give an estimation of their impact on the actual heliocentric trajectory and identify whether some of the uncertainty sources are more relevant than others. This is a fundamental information for directing more accurate theoretical and experimental efforts toward the most important parameters, in order to obtain an accurate knowledge of the solar sail thrust vector characteristics and, eventually, of the spacecraft heliocentric position.     

Reliability-based trajectory optimization using nonintrusive polynomial chaos for Mars entry mission

This paper presents the reliability-based sequential optimization (RBSO) method to settle the trajectory optimization problem with parametric uncertainties in entry dynamics for Mars entry mission. First, the deterministic entry trajectory optimization model is reviewed, and then the reliability-based optimization model is formulated. In addition, the modified sequential optimization method, in which the nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method and the most probable point (MPP) searching method are employed, is proposed to solve the reliability-based optimization problem efficiently. The nonintrusive PCE method contributes to the transformation between the stochastic optimization (SO) and the deterministic optimization (DO) and to the approximation of trajectory solution efficiently. The MPP method, which is used for assessing the reliability of constraints satisfaction only up to the necessary level, is employed to further improve the computational efficiency. The cycle including SO, reliability assessment and constraints update is repeated in the RBSO until the reliability requirements of constraints satisfaction are satisfied. Finally, the RBSO is compared with the traditional DO and the traditional sequential optimization based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in a specific Mars entry mission to demonstrate the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed method.     

基于DM-DSC的舰载机着舰自动复飞控制算法

针对理想复飞轨迹已知条件下的舰载机自动复飞控制问题,提出一种基于偏差模型的动态面控制（DM-DSC）算法。基于Radau伪谱法给出了舰载机着舰的最优复飞轨迹;根据得到的最优复飞轨迹及其所对应的控制方案,分别给出了速度子系统和高度子系统的偏差控制模型和反演（Backstepping）控制器,并通过引入动态面结构来获得虚拟控制量的微分信号,避免了Backstepping控制律求解过程中的“微分膨胀”问题;考虑到气动参数的不确定性及舰尾流场的干扰,采用线性扩张状态观测器（LESO）对控制模型中的干扰项进行估计和补偿,并设计抗饱和辅助系统来抑制控制饱和的不利影响;最后,基于Lyapunov方法证明闭环系统信号的有界性。仿真结果表明：所提算法具有良好的控制性能。     

基于凸优化和LQR的火箭返回轨迹跟踪制导

可重复使用运载火箭动力减速段制导, 面临各种苛刻的过程约束、终端约束及燃料最省的迫切需求, 给制导带来巨大挑战。因此, 提出一种基于分段凸优化和线性二次调节器(LQR)的轨迹跟踪制导律。采用分段凸优化方法对火箭基准速度进行跟踪, 大幅简化了优化模型从而降低凸优化求解的计算量, 同时确保火箭在各种初始误差和模型误差的情况下燃料最省。采用LQR方法实现对火箭飞行位置轨迹的高精度跟踪, 抵抗各种误差和干扰的影响。仿真结果表明:相对于传统的LQR跟踪制导方法, 所提方法能大幅减少燃料消耗, 且在各种误差和干扰下具有较高的轨迹跟踪精度和较强的抗干扰能力;相比于现有的滚动凸优化方法, 所提方法能显著降低求解计算量, 且方法可靠性更高。      

小天体着陆动力学参数不确定性影响分析

针对小天体不规则程度高、引力场复杂,且物理参数存在较高不确定性的问题,基于小天体着陆动力学方程线性化近似解析解,对各动力学参数不确定性的影响进行了分析。考虑动力学方程线性化带来的误差,引入线性化误差补偿校正方法,建立了探测器轨迹对动力学参数不确定性的敏感度方程。以小行星Eros 433为例,重点分析了目标小天体质量、自转角速度、引力势函数系数,以及探测器初始状态、推力加速度等动力学参数不确定性对探测器着陆轨迹的影响。数学仿真分析表明,针对本文选取的目标小天体,推力加速度扰动为主要影响因素,探测器初始状态的不确定性为次要影响因素,其他参数扰动的影响较小。     

Accurate approximation of in-ecliptic trajectories for E-sail with constant pitch angle

Propellantless continuous-thrust propulsion systems, such as electric solar wind sails, may be successfully used for new space missions, especially those requiring high-energy orbit transfers. When the mass-to-thrust ratio is sufficiently large, the spacecraft trajectory is characterized by long flight times with a number of revolutions around the Sun. The corresponding mission analysis, especially when addressed within an optimal context, requires a significant amount of simulation effort. Analytical trajectories are therefore useful aids in a preliminary phase of mission design, even though exact solution are very difficult to obtain. The aim of this paper is to present an accurate, analytical, approximation of the spacecraft trajectory generated by an electric solar wind sail with a constant pitch angle, using the latest mathematical model of the thrust vector. Assuming a heliocentric circular parking orbit and a two-dimensional scenario, the simulation results show that the proposed equations are able to accurately describe the actual spacecraft trajectory for a long time interval when the propulsive acceleration magnitude is sufficiently small.     

THAAD增程型拦截弹预测制导方法

根据公开资料对THAAD增程型拦截弹建模,针对大射程的特点规划了高抛弹道,生成标准弹道族。提出了迭代预测命中点法,利用解析方法计算剩余飞行时间,基于多项式拟合法寻找标准弹道,确定预测命中点,完成预测制导任务。将迭代预测命中点法与迭代飞行时间法进行对比,迭代预测命中点法初值选取容易,程序运行时间减少20%,制导过程中无需调用标准弹道文件,节省了计算机存储空间。通过改变射程、航路捷径对预测制导方法进行仿真验证,结果表明,拦截弹拦截射程可覆盖到600 km,并且能完成存在航路捷径时的拦截任务,平均脱靶量在200 m以内,应对气动不确定性的效果良好。      

基于解耦双通道线性自抗扰控制的连续型机械臂轨迹跟踪策略

针对包含多源不确定性的连续型机械臂轨迹跟踪问题，提出基于解耦双通道的线性自抗扰控制策略以抑制不确定性对跟踪性能的不利影响.首先，引入虚拟控制量实现对MIMO系统的解耦，针对解耦率已知和未知两种情况，均设计双通道线性自抗扰控制器.利用线性扩张观测器对系统不确定性进行实时补偿，并给出观测器参数整定方法，进一步基于Lyapunov稳定性理论证明了其收敛性.设计仿真，综合考虑未知解耦率、未建模动态以及未知外部干扰等情况，结果验证了本文所提控制方法的有效性.进一步将其与计算力矩法相比较，结果表明LADRC能够处理更大范围不确定性，鲁棒性更强.基于解耦双通道线性自抗扰控制策略为连续型机械臂高精度轨迹跟踪提供了新思路.     

基于无关变量分离的EFSM测试数据进化生成

扩展有限状态机（EFSM）相比于有限状态机（FSM）能够更加精确地刻画系统的动态行为,因而广泛作为各种控制流与数据流系统的测试模型。在EFSM模型的测试中,使用搜索的方法获得触发目标测试路径的测试数据是近年来的一个研究热点。为进一步提高搜索效率,在遗传算法（GA）的基础上提出一种自动分离测试路径中无关输入变量的方法,该方法通过分析模型中变量与迁移间的关系,判定不影响子路径中谓词条件的无关输入变量,进而从个体中将其分离以实现搜索空间的自动缩减,提升测试数据生成效率。对几种具有不同复杂度的基准EFSM模型进行实验后的结果表明,该方法生成有效测试数据的成功率均达到98.2%以上,且与未分离输入变量的遗传算法相比,所需平均迭代次数减少44.7%~85.9%,平均运行时间减少24.1%~85.5%。      

Optimal guidance based on receding horizon control for low-thrust transfer to libration point orbits

This paper addresses the design and computation of a guidance law for a transfer mission from an orbit near the Earth to a halo orbit around the libration point L₂ in the Sun–Earth system. The guidance law, which is designed based on receding horizon control and compensates for launch velocity errors that are introduced by inaccuracies of the launch vehicle, is solved using the generating function method. During the design of the closed-loop guidance law, the entire transfer mission, which is considered a nonlinear optimal control problem, is evaluated to obtain a nominal reference trajectory. Using the launch velocity errors and the uncertainty of the model, a spacecraft controlled by the proposed guidance law tracks the reference trajectory. Furthermore, the original Riccati differential equation in the receding horizon control algorithm is replaced by an equivalent convenient form of the Riccati differential equation that is based on the generating function. The high-efficiency solution of the equivalent equation avoids the online direct integration of the original Riccati differential equation, which significantly increases the computational efficiency for the receding horizon control problem. Numerical simulations using a nonlinear bicircular four-body model demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed receding horizon guidance law for the transfer mission. In addition, the generating function method improves the computational efficiency by at least one order of magnitude over the backward sweep method in solving the receding horizon control problem.     

基于改进多模型的火星大气进入自适应估计方法

针对火星进入过程中大气密度等不确定参数对导航系统状态估计精度的影响,提出了一种基于改进混合专家框架的多模型自适应估计方法。该方法对进入过程中不同的测量信息进行规范化处理,以克服传统多模型自适应估计方法稳定性差、数值下溢等固有缺陷,进一步提高状态估计精度。将其应用于火星不同进入探测方式下的导航场景进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明:该方法在动力学系统模型参数存在不确定扰动时能获得精确的状态估计,可以满足未来定点着陆探测对导航系统的精度需求。     

小天体自主附着多滑模面鲁棒制导方法研究

小天体形状不规则及缺乏观测信息的特点使得小天体附近的动力学环境较为复杂,附着动力学模型存在较大不确定性。通过引入多滑模面鲁棒制导方法,分别设计2个滑模面,使探测器状态先后到达这2个滑模面,可实现指定时刻精确附着小天体的目标。通过选取参数的分析总结了制导律中相关参数的选取对燃料消耗的影响,给出了制导律相关参数选取原则。在存在外界环境扰动、初始状态误差和导航误差条件下,蒙特卡洛仿真结果表明:多滑面制导方法能够在小天体的不确知环境中实现高精度附着,且具有很好的鲁棒性。多滑模面制导方法精度高、鲁棒性好,且无需设计参考轨迹,实时性好,适合小天体自主精确附着的任务需求。     

Solar sailing in realistic mode,based on a locally-optimal control laws

Ballistic design of solar sailing missions in the solar system is composed of defining the design parameters, the control programs, and the trajectories that provide performance goals of a flight. The use of a solar sail spacecraft imposes specific restrictions on mission parameters that include the degradation limit on the flight duration, the maximum temperature of solar sail's surface, the minimum distance from the Sun, the maximum angular velocity of the spacecraft's rotation and others.Many authors considered the impact of these restrictions on the design of the mission separately, but they used a sophisticated method of finding the exact optimal motion control or applied the most straightforward laws of motion control. This paper uses local-optimal control laws at the complete mathematical models of motion and functioning of solar sail spacecraft to describe a technique of designing interplanetary missions. The described method avoids the need to obtain an accurate optimal solution to the control problem and does not cause significant computational difficulties.     

基于ADRC姿态解耦的四旋翼飞行器鲁棒轨迹跟踪

针对欠驱动四旋翼飞行器的控制特性,提出一种基于自抗扰控制(ADRC)的姿态解耦控制算法,该算法可以克服传统欠驱动四旋翼控制方法中存在的问题,如系统状态间耦合严重,抗干扰能力弱及系统建模误差对跟踪性能影响较大等弱点.该算法利用扩张状态观测器(ESO)实现状态间耦合项的跟踪和估计,同时ESO也可实现对系统干扰的估计,干扰包括系统内扰和外扰.利用动态反馈线性化将非线性MIMO系统转化成线性SISO系统,然后利用非线性反馈控制律实现四旋翼姿态系统的高品质控制,在上述姿态解耦控制的基础上研究飞行器的鲁棒轨迹跟踪问题,不同情况下的仿真结果验证了上述姿态控制算法可提高系统轨迹跟踪的鲁棒性.该算法不依赖于精确的系统模型,降低了实际应用的难度,并有很强的抗干扰能力,具有实际应用的价值.      

基于核主成分分析的多输出模型确认方法

目前对于不确定性环境下多个相关的复杂计算模型进行确认的方法存在计算困难及稳定性较差的问题。针对这类复杂计算模型,提出了一种新的基于核主成分分析(KPCA)的多输出模型确认方法。该方法将核主成分分析与面积法的思想相结合,构造了一个新的易于计算且稳定性高的模型确认指标。所提方法通过核主成分分析将相关的输出变量转化为不相关的核主成分,再对每一核主成分进行模型与实验的对比,从而避免了传统多输出模型确认方法中需要求解多个输出的联合累积分布函数的困难。由于核主成分分析(PCA)方法能够有效提取分析对象的非线性成分,因此基于核主成分分析的多输出模型确认方法较基于主成分分析的模型确认方法更为稳定,这表现在相同的实验样本数据下核主成分分析的方法具有更低的出错率。另外核主成分分析通过核主成分提取,可以实现多输出模型的降维,从而降低多输出模型确认的复杂度。所提方法既可以用于一般的多输出模型的确认,也可以用于多确认点的输出模型的确认。最后通过数值算例和工程算例证明了该方法的正确性与有效性。     

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

基于遗传编程的航天器有限推力逼近轨迹规划

通过引入基函数的概念,提出了采用遗传编程求解有限推力航天器逼近非合作目标最终逼近段轨迹规划问题的方法。该方法将推力器开关状态定义为基函数,以多个基函数分别乘以开关状态持续时间再求和作为推力器开关的历程函数;将历程函数转换为遗传编程的树型结构,将消耗燃料的质量作为适应度函数,并将规避障碍物和终端逼近精度等约束条件以罚函数的形式添加到适应度函数中;利用遗传编程的模拟自然进化理论的全局寻优机制求解,最终得到最优逼近轨迹方案。某航天器在有限推力下逼近非合作目标的轨迹规划结果表明:整个逼近过程推力器仅开关5次,大大降低了对开关频率的要求,同时,规划结果比采用高斯伪谱法时逼近时间降低了30.09%,燃料消耗降低了4.18%。