Effects of optical parameter measurement uncertainties and solar irradiance fluctuations on solar sailing

The heliocentric orbital dynamics of a spacecraft propelled by a solar sail is affected by some uncertainty sources, including possible inaccuracies in the measurement of the sail film optical properties. Moreover, the solar radiation pressure, which is responsible for the solar sail propulsive acceleration generation, is not time-constant and is subject to fluctuations that are basically unpredictable and superimposed to the well-known 11-year solar activity cycle. In this context, this work aims at investigating the effects of such uncertainties on the actual heliocentric trajectory of a solar sail by means of stochastic simulations performed with a generalized polynomial chaos procedure. The numerical results give an estimation of their impact on the actual heliocentric trajectory and identify whether some of the uncertainty sources are more relevant than others. This is a fundamental information for directing more accurate theoretical and experimental efforts toward the most important parameters, in order to obtain an accurate knowledge of the solar sail thrust vector characteristics and, eventually, of the spacecraft heliocentric position.