A new strategic revolution?

Professor Freedman examines the argument that, with the claimed potential of ballistic missile defence deriving from SDI, there has been a strategic revolution in favour of the defence. He argues that such a revolution will only come despite technological trends and not because of them, ie from building an entirely new strategic relationship with the active cooperation of the USSR, and concludes that the strident advocacy of strategic defensive systems allows the opportunity of avoiding the real dilemmas that confront us in the nuclear age by pretending that there is a technological way out.     

US and Soviet ballistic missile defence programmes : Implications for the 1972 ABM treaty

This article reviews the key provisions of the ABM Treaty and the major issues of interpretation which need to be resolved. The various phases of the US Strategic Defense Initiative are discussed, showing that permitted SDI research may cross over the prohibited development and testing beginning in 1988. Cooperative research with US allies is discussed in terms of the Treaty constraints. US and Soviet ballistic missile defence programmes are summarized and the major US and Soviet compliance issues, including the Krasnoyarsk radar, are reviewed. The author argues that limitations on defensive systems remain a precondition to limitations on offensive systems. The ABM Treaty should be enhanced by agreed interpretations, a separate ASAT treaty, and perhaps four amendments to the ABM Treaty.     

The ‘Star Wars’ initiative: Problems and prospects

This article examines the long-term ‘Star Wars’ R&D programme initiated by President Reagan - the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The nature of this initiative and the research programme that has been approved are described. There is still considerable uncertainty over where the SDI research will eventually lead - whether it be a limited BMD system designed to protect military targets or a comprehensive shield to protect the USA and its allies. The feasibility and potential implications of the SDI are examined with this caveat in mind.     

Military uses of space-ballistic missile defence

Air Vice-Marshal Menaul argues that the creation of a ballistic missile defence (BMD) system — now within the state of the art — would add immeasurably to the concept of deterrence to war at any level. The reality is that space is already an arena for military operations. Through a review of the technological components and capabilities of a layered defence system as envisaged by the US Fletcher Commission, Air Vice-Marshal Menaul argues for Western support to be given to President Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) and for Europe to begin researching the requirements for a European-based system.     

SDI and the new space renaissance

This article outlines the objectives of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) Program and describes the new technologies being considered by the Program. The author puts forward the view that the SDI will yield great benefits beyond the military goals, in terms of important technological advances, stimulation of the US economy and increased national security.     

Star wars brought to earth

This article considers the thinking behind, and the ramifications of, President Reagan's Star Wars ‘vision’. The author argues that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) is incompatible with other aspects of the Reagan administration's own defence policies and that the ‘security shield’ version of it would make future US-Soviet arms agreements impossible. Only the so-called ‘prudent hedge’ research looks viable in the longer term. The SDI's main value will have been in bringing the USSR back to the negotiating table.     

US-allied participation in the SDI research programme

Senator Lugar argues that a better European appreciation of the SDI is essential to try to define the roles of the US allies in the programme. A number of guidelines for allied participation should be applied, covering mode of participation, areas for participation, responsibilities under treaty provisions, technology transfer and security safeguards. Bilateral agreements are viewed as the mode for proceeding, but it is incumbent on the US government to outline the next steps it evisages to come to grips with the political considerations that will influence allied calculations on whether and under what circumstances to participate in SDI research.     

The USA should begin to deploy a strategic defence system

The US Secretary of Defense argues in favour of an early deployment of some elements of a Strategic Defense System. In this edited version of the Secretary's speech to the National Space Symposium, he gives evidence of Soviet military strength and strategy and explains why the SDI can be deployed now.     

从SDI计划重点的转移看固体火箭推进技术的应用前景

对美国战略防御倡议(SDI)计划的发展和调整进行了跟踪分析,以较详实的资料评价了固体火箭推进技术在该计划发展中所占有的地位和已经起到的作用,指出了它在先进的空间防御系统中的应用前景.     

Military computing — the last generation

This article examines the computing requirements of the Strategic Defense Initiative. Dr Din points to the massive software problems inherent in SDI programming requirements, and raises the crucial issue of the potential bypassing of human control in any actual outbreak of hostilities.     

Space nuclear power and the UN: A growing fiasco

The work of the UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space was intensified following the accidental re-entry of the Soviet Cosmos 954 nuclear-powered satellite in 1978. But anyone thinking the purpose of the Committee's activity was to prevent the recurrence of such an accident will have been disabused by the USA's recent repudiation of the guidelines for the safe use of nuclear power supplies. The UN is good for political manoeuvring, argues the author of this Viewpoint, but real progress towards the safer use of nuclear power in space will originate elsewhere.     

Nuclear propulsion—a historical perspective

Those who fear development of nuclear propulsion for space travel forget that considerable work on it has already been done, starting in the 1950s, and that the concept of a nuclear rocket was safely and successfully tested in the 1960s. This article describes the history of the US Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application programme, with technical details of its development. Although funding for the programme ceased in the 1970s, there is no reason to suppose that the concept would not work today.     

Could civil satellites monitor nuclear tests?

As the momentum for further cuts in nuclear weapons grows and fears of nuclear proliferation increase, the need to monitor nuclear testing is becoming more pressing. While military observation satellites are already used for this purpose, this article argues that greater independence and impartiality could be achieved through the use of civilian remote sensing satellites, whose images could be made available to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). How images from space are processed and interpreted is described, as is how civil satellites might be used to verify a comprehensive test ban treaty. Four options open to the IAEA for utilizing remotely sensed images are discussed.     

Nuclear waste disposal in space: Implications of advanced space transportation

Previous studies have shown that the disposal of nuclear waste in space is promising as a practical and economically plausible option, based on use of the first generation space shuttle. The promise brightens if we consider use of more effective second generation systems such as fully reusable single-stage-to-orbit transports. These vehicles, with simpler more reliable flight characteristics and with operational economics at least twenty times more favorable than the first shuttle, can become available in the early 1990s when the nuclear waste problem will have grown to truly serious proportions. This paper surveys both vertical and horizontal-takeoff vehicles as they could be used for the Earth-to-orbit phase of nuclear waste disposal mission. The international nature of the nuclear waste issue is emphasized, and the suggestion is made that an international equatorial launch site be established. This launch center, apart from its inherent safety features, would serve as a focus for an international solution of the truly worldwide problem of nuclear waste disposal.     

Large-scale military funding induces culture clash

Mission-oriented research shifts the assessment of research products and potential from scientists to external factors. This is the point of mission funding, but it introduces what the author calls ‘epistemic drift’, which is part of a more general clash between different value systems and cultures. The culture clash between the military and industry has led to a shift in debate from spin-off to dual-use technologies. Similar conflicts and tensions are introduced into the university research system by large-scale mission funding such as that of SDI, and it is imperative that universities establish a strong civilian base for fundamental research funding instead of lobbying for military support.     

Self-sustaining Mars colonies utilizing the North Polar Cap and the Martian atmosphere

A revolutionary new concept for the early establishment of robust, self-sustaining Martian colonies is described. The colonies would be located on the North Polar Cap of Mars and utilize readily available water ice and the CO2 Martian atmosphere as raw materials to produce all of the propellants, fuel, air, water, plastics, food, and other supplies needed by the colony. The colonists would live in thermally insulated large, comfortable habitats under the ice surface, fully shielded from cosmic rays. The habitats and supplies would be produced by a compact, lightweight (~4 metric tons) nuclear powered robotic unit termed ALPH (Atomic Liberation of Propellant and Habitat), which would land 2 years before the colonists arrived. Using a compact, lightweight 5 MW (th) nuclear reactor/steam turbine (1 MW(e)) power source and small process units (e.g., H2O electrolyzer, H2 and O2 liquefiers, methanator, plastic polymerizer, food producer, etc.) ALPH would stockpile many hundreds of tons of supplies in melt cavities under the ice, plus insulated habitats, to be in place and ready for use when the colonists landed. With the stockpiled supplies, the colonists would construct and operate rovers and flyers to explore the surface of Mars. ALPH greatly reduces the amount of Earth supplied material needed and enables large permanent colonies on Mars. It also greatly reduces human and mission risks and vastly increases the capability not only for exploration of the surrounding Martian surface, but also the ice cap itself. The North Polar Cap is at the center of the vast ancient ocean that covered much of the Martian Northern Hemisphere. Small, nuclear heated robotic probes would travel deep (1 km or more) inside the ice cap, collecting data on its internal structure, the composition and properties of the ancient Martian atmosphere, and possible evidence of ancient life forms (microfossils, traces of DNA, etc.) that were deposited either by wind or as remnants of the ancient ocean. Details of the ALPH system, which is based on existing technology, are presented. ALPH units could be developed and demonstrated on Earth ice sheets within a few years. An Earth-Mars space transport architecture is described, in which Mars produced propellant and supplies for return journeys to Earth would be lifted with relatively low DeltaV to Mars orbit, and from there transported back to Earth orbit, enabling faster and lower cost trips from Earth to Mars. The exploration capability and quality of life in a mature Martian colony of 500 persons located on the North Polar Cap is outlined.     

Shaping peace

Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev, in his January 1986 speech, expressed a hope that the level of nuclear weapons would before long be greatly reduced. The Soviet Embassy in Sri Lanka invited Arthur C. Clarke to comment on the General Secretary's speech. This article is his response.     

基于决策树的多防御方目标攻防决策

针对多方对抗博弈问题的复杂性和多样性,提出了利用决策树思想对多防御方的目标攻防问题的策略进行决策树分类,再利用决策树分类模型对多防御方的目标攻防问题的攻防策略进行快速决策。首先,对多防御方目标攻防问题利用决策树ID3算法以攻防双方的策略作为类别属性进行分类,得到多防御方目标攻防问题的决策树模型;然后,对多方对抗中的攻击方,基于距离的威胁权重函数得到攻击方的轨迹;最后,得到防御方的协同合作策略,并进行了仿真验证。     

国外空间对抗装备技术的发展途径与趋势

空间已成为事关国家安全和利益的战略“制高点”。主要航天国家围绕控制“制高点”,采取不同策略发展空间对抗能力。国外已具备有限的空间对抗实战能力,但是空间对抗装备在世界范围内总体上仍处于技术发展阶段。空间对抗装备技术将在与导弹攻防对抗、网络攻防对抗技术的交叉与叠加中演进升级。预计2030年前后,国外将形成一个比较全面、完整和成熟的空间对抗装备体系。     

Actinides and Life's Origins

There are growing indications that life began in a radioactive beach environment. A geologic framework for the origin or support of life in a Hadean heavy mineral placer beach has been developed, based on the unique chemical properties of the lower-electronic actinides, which act as nuclear fissile and fertile fuels, radiolytic energy sources, oligomer catalysts, and coordinating ions (along with mineralogically associated lanthanides) for prototypical prebiotic homonuclear and dinuclear metalloenzymes. A four-factor nuclear reactor model was constructed to estimate how much uranium would have been required to initiate a sustainable fission reaction within a placer beach sand 4.3 billion years ago. It was calculated that about 1-8 weight percent of the sand would have to have been uraninite, depending on the weight percent, uranium enrichment, and quantity of neutron poisons present within the remaining placer minerals. Radiolysis experiments were conducted with various solvents with the use of uraniumand thorium-rich minerals (metatorbernite and monazite, respectively) as proxies for radioactive beach sand in contact with different carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen reactants. Radiation bombardment ranged in duration of exposure from 3 weeks to 6 months. Low levels of acetonitrile (estimated to be on the order of parts per billion in concentration) were conclusively identified in 2 setups and tentatively indicated in a 3(rd) by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. These low levels have been interpreted within the context of a Hadean placer beach prebiotic framework to demonstrate the promise of investigating natural nuclear reactors as power production sites that might have assisted the origins of life on young rocky planets with a sufficiently differentiated crust/mantle structure. Future investigations are recommended to better quantify the complex relationships between energy release, radioactive grain size, fissionability, reactant phase, phosphorus release, and possible abiotic production of sugars, amino acids, activated phosphorus, prototypical organometallic enzymes, and oligomer catalysts at a single putative beach site.