1998年10月18——-19日磁暴主相的行星际源分析

采用高时间分辨率的地磁指数SYM-H, 同时考虑日地连线引力平衡点(L1点)太阳风地磁效应的滞后性, 精确分析了1998年10月18---19日大磁暴主相的行星际源. 分析结果表明, 磁暴主相的行星际源仅为行星际激波和行星际日冕物质抛射之间的太阳风(Sheath), 磁云对磁暴主相没有贡献. 这个磁暴事例的研究表明, 行星际磁场南向分量与太阳风动压的乘积是影响磁暴主相发展的关键参数.      

行星际日冕物质抛射地磁效应研究的支持向量机方法初步研究

行星际日冕物质抛射（Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection,ICME）与地球磁层相互作用并带来地磁暴等地磁扰动.从Richardson和Cane提供的近地球ICME列表中筛选出ICME事件集,基于ICME扰动期间的行星际等离子体与磁场数据提取出特征.通过计算各特征的费舍尔分值（Fisher Score）,对这些特征进行选择,发现行星际磁场南北向分量持续时间小于-10nT且激波等扰动所带来的ICME扰动开始时,太阳风速度的增量等特征与ICME事件的地磁效应密切相关.这与现有的传统统计研究结果一致.以这些特征为基础,训练得到的径向基函数支持向量机能够以0.78±0.08的准确率判断ICME事件是否会产生中等及以上强度的地磁暴（Dst ≤-50nT）.      

磁暴数统计特性研究

Dst是一个表征磁暴强度的空间天气指数. 通过统计1957-2008年 发生的中等磁暴(-100<Dst≤ -50nT)和强磁暴(Dst ≤ -100nT)在太阳活动周上升年、极大年、下降年和极小年的时间分布情 况, 分析其随季节变化的统计特性, 进而讨论了引起磁暴的原因. 结果表明, 对于同一太阳活动周, 极大年地磁暴发生次数远大于极小年地磁暴的发生次数, 这与太阳黑子数的变化趋势是一致的; 通常太阳活动周强磁暴出现双峰结构, 而第23周中等磁暴出现双峰结构, 强磁暴则出现三峰结构, 这可能与1999 年强 磁暴发生次数异常少, 使1998年凸显出来的现象有关; 磁暴主要发生在分季, 随着Dst指数的增加, 磁暴发生次数明显增加.      

行星际扰动与不同级别磁暴强度关系的研究

利用1997-2004年间ACE卫星太阳风观测的时均值数据和相应的Dst指数,针对Dstmin≤-50 nT的磁暴,分析了行星际参数(Bz,Ey,v,Pk,|B|,ε'=vxB2zsin4(θ/2))与Dst指数的相关关系.验证了Ey,Bz与Dst指数的良好相关性;按磁暴强度的不同,发现磁暴强度越大,行星际参数与磁暴强度(Dstmin)的相关性就越好.对于中等磁暴(-100 nT＜Dstmin≤-50 nT),行星际参数与磁暴强度的相关系数不高.如果把磁暴分为两个档次,即-150 nT＜Dstmin≤-50 nT的磁暴和Dstmin≤-150 nT的磁暴,计算结果表明,ε'与Dst指数的相关性是最好的.在诸多行星际参数中,就单一因素来说,Ey对磁暴强度影响最大,Bz对磁暴强度影响次之.      

第24太阳活动周地球附近磁云与非磁云事件的统计分析

为研究第24太阳活动周中磁云（Magnetic Clouds,MC）与非磁云（Non-Magnetic Clouds,non-MC）的等离子体性质及其对空间天气的影响,使用1AU处的观测数据对2008-2015年168个ICME事件进行统计与分析,其中认证出磁云事件68个,占总数的40.48%.通过分析磁云与非磁云等离子体参数对空间天气环境的影响及与太阳活动的关系,整体性质的对比及在第23和24太阳活动周中性质的对比,可以发现:在第24太阳周中,磁云引起的磁暴强度普遍大于非磁云,南北向磁场分量是引起磁暴的重要参数;磁云数和太阳黑子数有很好的相关性,非磁云数与行星际日冕物质抛射总数及黑子数的相关性稍弱,磁云数在太阳周的不同阶段表现出不同的分布特性;磁云的磁场强度和南向磁场分量整体强于非磁云,两者质子温度、密度等参数差异不大.第24周磁云事件引起的地磁效应整体上弱于第23周磁云事件,这与第24周磁云事件最大南向磁场分量、传播速度以及质子温度整体小于第23周磁云事件有关.      

上游太阳风中高能电子向同步轨道区的传输

通常认为，同步轨道区的电子通量增加是由于磁暴或者上游太阳风高速流的扰动所引起．近来的观测表明，起源于太阳活动的行星际高能电子也是引起同步轨道电子通量增加的重要原因之一．Zhao等在研究2000年7月14日太阳剧烈活动时发现，同步轨道区相对论电子通量巨幅增加时没有观察到上游太阳风高速流的扰动，并且磁暴发生在电子通量事件之后．采用解析磁场模型和实际磁场模型(T96模型)模拟来自太阳的相对论电子在磁尾中的运动特性．计算结果表明，当行星际磁场南向时，进入到磁尾的行星际相对论电子可以从较远的磁尾区域运动到同步轨道区域．这一研究结果从理论上论证了起源于太阳活动的高能电子可以对同步轨道区相对论电子通量的增加产生重要的作用．     

中低纬度Pc3-4地磁脉动特性研究——子午工程数据分析初步结果

利用新建成的子午工程地磁台站数据,对比分析了地磁平静期间(2011年3月20-27日)和磁暴期间(2011年9月25日至10月1日)Pc3-4地磁脉动的时空分布特征及其对行星际条件的响应.数据分析结果表明,中低纬度(1.3<L<2.3,L为磁壳参数)的Pc3-4地磁脉动在这两个时期内的分布存在明显的晨昏不对称性,在昼侧前出现明显的Pc3-4地磁脉动并与行星际上游波动密切相关,其振幅增强可能与太阳风动压脉冲相关,高速太阳风更易导致Pc3-4地磁脉动;而对于近赤道低纬(L<1.3)区域,无论是在地磁平静期还是磁暴期均未能观测到Pc3-4地磁脉动,Pc3-4地磁脉动存在明显的纬度效应.      

第23太阳活动周行星际磁场扇形结构对中低纬地磁场的影响

用特征向量分析法对第23太阳活动周天津静海磁场强度水平分量H的时均值进行研究,分析行星际磁场扇形结构的地磁效应（简称扇形效应）对中低纬地磁场H分量日变化的贡献.研究结果表明,中低纬扇形效应为3～11nT,在太阳活动高年扇形效应达到最大值（约11nT）,低年达到最小值（约3nT）.太阳活动高年扇形效应引起的地磁H分量值变化与太阳活动低年的情况相反,但是扇形效应在夏季对地磁H分量的影响较小.太阳活动高年扇形效应日均值的增减与上升年的相反,与下降年相同,夏季扇形效应平均增量最小且无规律.春、夏和秋三个季节的扇形效应最大值都出现在太阳活动高年,冬季的扇形效应在太阳活动峰年两年后才出现最大值（约11nT）.在太阳活动低年（或高年）,当扇形磁场背离（或指向）太阳时,夏季扇形效应白天引起地磁H分量增大（或减小）,夜间导致地磁H分量减小（或增大）,其他季节全天都会导致地磁H分量减小（或增大）.用特征向量推断行星际磁场扇形极性的符合率在春夏秋三个季节高达60%,在冬季为55%.      

ICME期间磁暴的太阳风参数和极光沉降能量

基于1995-2004年ICME驱动的强烈磁暴(SA型)、强磁暴(SB型)和延迟型主相暴(SC型)三种磁暴类型,对1AU处太阳风动压、太阳风速度、行星际磁场、EK-L电场以及极光沉降能量进行时序叠加分析,并分别与-vBz耦合函数和Newell耦合函数进行对比.结果表明,三种磁暴在ICME到达前期的太阳风动压较稳定,背景太阳风、极光沉降能量、行星际磁场和磁层存在相对平静期. ICME到达前期SA型磁暴的背景太阳风速度、行星际磁场南向分量以及极光沉降能量的均值高于另外两种磁暴类型,这说明大型日冕物质抛射在ICME到达前就对行星际磁场、背景太阳风和HP产生了影响.磁暴急始后,SC型磁暴的EK-L电场斜率小,峰值延后且行星际磁场北向分量增强,这些都是磁暴主相延迟的表现,极光沉降能量随着行星际磁场转为南向而增加.     

异常SSC事件的行星际原因分析

磁暴急始(SSC)是强烈太阳风动压或行星际激波与磁层相互作用的结果.通常SSC事件的上升时间在4～10 min,我们把上升时间超过15 min的SSC事件称为异常SSC事件.本文利用地磁SYM-H指数鉴别出了5个有地磁观测历史以来发生的上升时间大于15 min的异常SSC事件,并利用Wind,ACE,IMP 8,Goes,Geotail多点卫星太阳风观测数据和地磁观测数据,分析了异常SSC事件的行星际原因.结果表明,异常SSC事件通常都是强烈行星际扰动引起的,5个异常SSC事件有4个对应于行星际激波,有3个对应于多步太阳风动压跃变,有1个对应于行星际电场大幅度变化;由行星际激波产生的异常SSC事件,其上升时间依赖于行星际激波的方向,方向相对于日地连线越偏,上升时间越长;异常SSC事件上升时间与行星际磁场方向关系不明显.      

Relationship between substorm activity and the interplanetary medium parameters during the main phase of strong magnetic storms

In the present paper dependences of substorm activity on the solar wind velocity and southward component (Bz) of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the main phase of magnetic storms, induced by the CIR and ICME events, is studied. Strong magnetic storms with close values of Dst_min?≈??100?±?10?nT are considered. For the period of 1979–2017 there are selected 26 magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME (MC?+?Ejecta) events. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the average value of the AE index (AE_aver) at the main phase of magnetic storm correlates with the solar wind electric field. The highest correlation coefficient (r?=?0.73) is observed for the magnetic storms induced by the CIR events. It is found that the AE_aver for magnetic storms induced by ICME events, unlike CIR events, increases with the growth of average value of the southward IMF Bz module. The analysis of dependence between the AE_aver and average value of the solar wind velocity (Vsw_aver) during the main phase of magnetic storm shows that in the CIR events, unlike ICME, the AE_aver correlates on the Vsw_aver.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度及发生时间统计

地磁暴是空间天气预报的重要对象.在太阳活动周下降年和低年，冕洞发出的高速流经过三天左右行星际传输到达地球并引发的地磁暴占主导地位.目前地磁暴的预报通常依赖于1AU处卫星就位监测的太阳风参数，预报提前量只有1h左右.为了增加地磁暴预报提前量，需要从高速流和地磁暴的源头即太阳出发，建立冕洞特征参数与地磁暴的定量关系.分析了2010年5月到2016年12月的152个冕洞-地磁暴事件，利用SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像提取了两类冕洞特征参数，分析了其与地磁暴期间ap，Dst和AE三种地磁指数的统计关系，给出冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度以及发生时间的统计特征，为基于冕洞成像观测提前1～3天预报地磁暴提供了依据.      

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

Substorm activity during the main phase of magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME events

In this work, the relation of high-latitude indices of geomagnetic activity (AE, Kp) with the rate of storm development and a solar wind electric field during the main phase of magnetic storm induced by the CIR and ICME events is investigated. 72 magnetic storms induced by CIR and ICME events have been selected. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the increase of average value of the Kp index (Kp_aver) is observed with the growth of rate of storm development. The value of Kp_aver index correlates with the magnitude of minimum value of Dst index (|Dst_min|) only for the ICME events. The analysis of average values of AE and Kp indices during the main phase of magnetic storm depending on the SW electric field has shown that for the CIR events, unlike the ICME events, the value of AE_aver increases with the growth of average value of the electric field (Esw_aver). The value of Kp_aver correlates with the Esw_aver only for the ICME events. The relation between geomagnetic indices and the maximum value of SW electric field (Esw_max) is weak. However, for the ICME events Kp_aver correlates with Esw_max.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.