共查询到17条相似文献,搜索用时 125 毫秒
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针对现有空间目标威胁评估方法存在的指标选取单一、可信度较差的问题,通过分析空间目标威胁特点和特征指标的依赖关系,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的威胁评估模型,该模型融合形态异常特征、轨道异常特征、历史行为等多源信息实现对空间目标威胁程度的综合评价。模型采用模糊隶属度函数对相对速度、相对距离等连续变量进行离散化隶属度表示,利用专家知识给出贝叶斯网络节点间的条件概率表。对抵近绕飞和碰撞两种典型空间场景进行仿真验证,结果表明该模型可以较为准确地刻画空间目标的威胁程度,具有一定实际意义。 相似文献
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空间目标轨道信息软件平台的建设 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
空间目标轨道信息是空间态势感知的重要要素,是空间碰撞预警、空间碎片环境模型和许多空间应用的基础。因而,空间目标轨道确定成为空间态势感知的主要任务之一。文章介绍武汉大学测绘学院正在开发建设的空间目标轨道信息服务软件平台,该平台拥有的主要功能有:利用多源数据的卫星/空间碎片轨道确定(包括初轨确定)与预报、大气质量密度模型精化、空间碰撞预警和半解析法快速精密轨道传播等。文章还针对软件平台功能的研究进展进行了综述,介绍了软件平台发展规划。 相似文献
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针对空间碎片环境的长期演化问题,从宏观和微观两个方面,分别构建了碎片环境的整体演化模型和数值演化计算模型,并在此基础上研究了不同条件下碎片环境的长期演化分布特点,分析了碎片环境的稳定性和主要影响因素。低地球轨道碎片环境在未来200年内的演化结果表明,空间目标的相互碰撞解体,是空间碎片不断增加的主要因素;即使停止一切航天发射活动,空间碎片的数量仍在不断增加,表明低地球轨道空间碎片规模已经超越稳定临界点;进一步的发射活动会增强空间碎片环境演化的不稳定性,加剧“碰撞-目标解体-碰撞”反馈连锁碰撞效应。 相似文献
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随着空间垃圾的不断增加,它对人类航天活动构成的威胁日益严重。本文推测了近期空间垃圾与航天器碰撞的可能性,并提出了航天器的防护措施。 相似文献
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美俄卫星碰撞事件验证及其对我国卫星的影响分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
北京时间2009年2月11日0时55分,美国铱星-33和俄罗斯宇宙-2251两颗卫星在太空相撞,在所在的高度产生了大量新增空间碎片,使得空间碎片环境更加严峻,低轨航天器运行遭受空间碎片撞击的风险大幅增加。文章通过碰撞前后轨道数据分析,确认并验证了此次碰撞事件;利用事前轨道数据进行碰撞预警分析,得出碰撞的相关的参数;通过分析此次事件产生的新增碎片的轨道数据,进一步验证确认碰撞事件;从空间碎片密度和通量角度分析其时当前空间碎片环境产生的影响;通过新增碎片寿命计算分析其对空间碎片环境的长期的影响;从碰撞概率出发分析对航天器运行安全的威胁。分析结果表明:我国低轨卫星在一定程度上增大了空间碎片碰撞风险,需要进行在轨空间碎片碰撞预警,以确保我国卫星的安全运行。 相似文献
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美俄卫星太空碰撞事件及对航天活动的影响 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章介绍了最近发生的美俄卫星太空碰撞重大事件;深入剖析了导致碰撞的可能原因;详细评述了卫星碰撞事件对空间碎片环境的严重恶化和对人类航天活动的影响;分析了碰撞事件对空间碎片研究带来的新困难和新挑战。文章指出,从航天器安全角度来讲,减缓、控制乃至清除空间碎片是全人类共同的责任和唯一选择。 相似文献
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空间大型末端执行器捕获动力学与实验研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以绳索式末端执行器为研究对象,基于离散化方法,采用六维弹簧柔性连接方式建立了绳索动力学模型,并引入绳索与目标间的非线性接触碰撞力和摩擦力模型,获得末端执行器捕获动力学模型,并设计了末端捕获冲击实验,验证了模型的正确性。所建模型可充分考虑绳索的空间运动状态以及捕获过程中绳索与目标间的接触碰撞过程,基于此模型可预示并预防捕获过程中瞬时的较大冲击。对于机构设计和控制器调试具有一定意义,并可作为物理试验的有效补充,解决我国未来空间大型目标捕获任务地面试验验证困难的问题。 相似文献
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态势估计技术及其算法研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
态势估计根据功能划分为态势觉察、态势理解、态势预测三级。由于态势元素的层次性 ,可以使用多级多层黑板模型构建态势估计系统。态势觉察为态势估计过程提炼态势元素 ,用到的技术有事件提取和分群技术。高层态势估计 (态势理解、态势预测 )需要详尽的态势知识库描述特定战场态势的时间、空间和因果关系 ,需选择适合应用领域的态势推理算法 ,基于模板匹配的方法简单可行 ;当前研究热点是规划识别系统和贝叶斯网络。 相似文献
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The chances that Earth will collide with a significant near earth object (NEO) within the next century are very small, but such a collision is possible, would be catastrophic, and could happen at any time. Much discussion has been devoted to methods of diverting these objects away from Earth through the use of space technology. However, if these efforts are unsuccessful, we would need to implement effective strategies to survive the event, no matter how cataclysmic. To date, disaster management for various impact scenarios has not been addressed (except in novels and Hollywood films). An impact disaster may be many orders of magnitude greater than any disaster the human species has ever experienced. Initially, technology and experience gained in other large-scale disasters will most likely form the foundation of how these impact events will be managed and classified. Given the size and energy of the projectile, the estimated area of damage, and whether impact effects might be localized or global in nature, we can begin to build basic disaster response scenarios, anticipate public health concerns, and formulate questions in need of answers. Questions we must deal with include: what will be required technologically, sociologically, and medically to survive? What types of evacuation plans and warning systems might be required? Capabilities in need of further investigation include: technological protection strategies related to ‘impact winter’, expanded chemical hazard control methodologies, food storage and production, roles of national governments, and international cooperation. Whatever the magnitude and severity of the event, we must reflect on what we know, what capabilities we can apply, develop or adapt, and seriously investigate what might be done to manage it and survive. 相似文献
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In this paper, we explore the situation where no cardinal directions or globally available orientations are available and no metric estimates are given. This corresponds to the way many people perceive their environment and carry out spatial reasoning tasks. We consider three kinds of locally available information – proximity (nearest neighbor), relevance (different sets of neighbors) and distribution (alignments) – and we limit our interest to a universe of point objects. We show how the theory of manifolds and sheaves can be applied to the problem of combining locally available information of a qualitative nature into a global model of an environmental space. We then explore the limitations of the resulting global model if information capture is incomplete or uncertain. Finally, we note that some indeterminacy in the global model does not entail difficulties for a user, provided the reasoning task is appropriately constrained or appropriate additional information is used, such as an external reference. 相似文献
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An analysis is performed of the orbital debris collision hazard to operational spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit (GEO). As part of the examination, the contribution of individual components of the population are considered and presented to provide a clearer linkage between object characteristic and resulting risk. Our examination of GEO collision risk reveals several critical new insights: (1) the current probability of collision in GEO is relatively low, yet the future is difficult to predict due to our limited ability to observe objects in GEO and the uncertainty in past and future debris-generating events in GEO; (2) the probability of collision in GEO is not uniform by longitude — it is seven times greater in regions centered about the geopotential wells; (3) the probability of a mission-terminating collision is greatly dependent upon the approximately 2200 objects in the 10 cm–1 m range observed in GEO but not yet cataloged; (4) hardware relocated to GEO “graveyard” disposal orbits pose a potential additional, but not fully understood, collision hazard to operational GEO satellites; and (5) the collision hazard throughout the course of a day or year is highly episodic (i.e. non-uniform). 相似文献