空间碎片环境的长期演化建模方法

针对空间碎片环境的长期演化问题，从宏观和微观两个方面，分别构建了碎片环境的整体演化模型和数值演化计算模型，并在此基础上研究了不同条件下碎片环境的长期演化分布特点，分析了碎片环境的稳定性和主要影响因素。低地球轨道碎片环境在未来200年内的演化结果表明，空间目标的相互碰撞解体，是空间碎片不断增加的主要因素；即使停止一切航天发射活动，空间碎片的数量仍在不断增加，表明低地球轨道空间碎片规模已经超越稳定临界点；进一步的发射活动会增强空间碎片环境演化的不稳定性，加剧“碰撞-目标解体-碰撞”反馈连锁碰撞效应。

Methods for Space Debris Environment Long Term Evolution Modeling

This thesis concentrates on the long-term evolution modeling of the debris environment. From the microscopic and macroscopic approaches, two models, i.e. the state evolution model and the numerical evolution model, are built respectively. Then, the long-term projection and the stability of the debris environment are studied. The 200-year projection of the low Earth orbit debris environment shows that the mutual collision among the objects is the most important driver of the growth of the debris; even all the launch plans are canceled, the amount of the debris will increase continuously, which means the scale of the low Earth orbit debris has developed beyond the critical level of stabilization; and the launch traffic will worsen the stability of the debris environment, and will aggravate the chain reaction of “collision-breakup-collision”.