基于电子密度同化的热层大气密度预报方法

采用热层电离层耦合模式TIEGCM和集合卡尔曼滤波同化方法,利用同化COSMIC电离层掩星电子密度数据优化热层电离层参量,并将模式预报的大气密度与CHAMP卫星大气密度数据进行对比,分别开展模拟和实测数据的同化预报实验.在模拟数据同化实验中,状态向量包含温度、风场和离子成分的实验结果表明,仅优化温度即可达到最优的热层大气密度预报效果.在实测数据同化实验中,将温度作为状态向量参数,优化结果表明,循环同化过程中模式预报的大气密度相对偏差的均方根误差在48h内从38%减小到27%,同化稳定时间至少需要30h.预报过程中大气密度预报效果的改善持续时间为34h.这表明电子密度同化能够改善热层大气密度的预报精度,设计的实验方案合理可行,可获得较长的预报时效.      

上行离子源区卫星探测的轨道需求分析

极区从电离层到磁层的上行粒子流探测研究是空间天气建模中的重要问题,其起源和加速机制是磁层-电离层-热层耦合小卫星星座计划的主要科学目标. 磁层-电离层-热层耦合小卫星星座计划拟定由两颗磁层星和两颗电离层/热层星组成星座对极区进行联合观测. 其中,上行粒子源区附近的就位探测是电离层-热层耦合机制研究的重点,也是电离层/热层星轨道设计的关键. 根据相关空间探测计划和卫星观测结果,通过比较圆轨道和椭圆轨道两种方案,确定电离层/热层星采用椭圆轨道.      

大气波动监测仪在岩石圈-大气层-电离层研究中的应用

针对北京大学空间物理与应用技术研究所研制的两台大气波动监测仪近三年的观测数据,对这一时段内所观测到的重力波和次声波周期尺度扰动的形态特征、谱结构特征及其在时间分布上的统计特征进行了分析. 给出了几例雷暴、地震等事件中观测到的大气扰动,并揭示了这些事件期间观测到的与地面大气扰动周期尺度相类似的电离层扰动. 结果表明,北京大学研制的大气波动监测仪可有效记录到地面的微弱大气扰动,观测数据可用于进行岩石圈-大气层-电离层之间的耦合研究.      

磁暴期间中低纬电离层暴形态和物理机制分析

本文利用东亚地区１２个低纬电离层台站的测高仪观测数据，对１９７８年８月２７日发生的一次曲型磁暴期间电离层峰值高度和密度的变化进行了分析。采用滑动平均区分开电离层中不同时间尺度的扰动，分析了影响中低纬度电离层暴的几种扰动形态特征，并对其物理机制进行了讨论。结果表明：伴随磁暴急始的磁层压缩，电离层中表现出峰值密度增加和峰值高度下降；磁暴主相期间热层大气暴环流及其所引起的中性大气成分变化控制着电离层的大     

中国地球空间双星探测计划科学研讨会召开

中国地球空间双星探测计划科学研讨会于2002年9月2至7日在山东省潍坊市举行.参加会议的有来自国家航天局、国家自然科学基金委、中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心、中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所、中国科学技术大学、中国科学院紫金山天文台、北京大学、武汉大学、大连理工大学、中国极地研究所、浙江大学以及潍坊学院的代表共75名.会议的主题为中国地球空间双星探测计划的关键科学问题研究.会议首先邀请有关专家学者就双星计划科学应用分系统的进展情况、目前空间物理方面的一些主要研究方向的研究现状、主要结果和发展趋势做了报告.报告内容主要集中在太阳风与磁层的相互作用、磁层亚暴和磁暴的触发机制、资源1号卫星高能粒子辐射事件及磁层与电离层耦合、亚暴期间空间电流体系、磁层粒子的来源及电离层上行     

地球磁层极尖区场向电子事件期间能量特性研究

根据Cluster卫星2001年9月30日在北半球极尖区观测到的一次强扰动场向电子事件数据,分析研究了这次事件期间场向电子的能量特性,讨论了场向电子对太阳风能量向磁层的传输和磁层-电离层耦合过程中能量传输的作用.分析认为,这次电子扰动事件期间电子速度和密度都具有很强的扰动变化,电子速度增加是一个主要特点.本次事件中低能段5~200eV和500~1500eV内的能谱分析结果表明,上行电子通量大于下行电子通量,上行电子主要来源于电离层,说明电离层上行电子在本次事件中具有非常活跃的作用.根据电离层中带电粒子的能量特征分析结果可知,这次事件中电离层起源的上行电子在上行过程中得到了加速.关于加速机制问题还有待深入研究.      

磁层-电离层电动耦合与中纬地磁指数的变化

本文探讨磁层一电离层耦合过程内中纬地磁指数的变化特点,并与极光电集流和赤道电集流(指数)变化相比较。相关分析和时序叠加分析均表明,高、中、低纬地磁指数变化可归结为磁层一电离层电动耦合的统一物理图象。有R事件的磁暴主相初期和无R事件的磁扰期内,赤道电集流和中纬地磁指数的变化各不相同。这再次证明,耦合分析中将磁层源扰动的直接穿透作用与经电离层内动力过程的效应二者加以区分和综合研究是很重要的。      

中性原子成像仪的定标测试

中性原子成像仪（NAIS-H）获取的高时空分辨率图像可为地球空间磁暴和亚暴过程的各类机制研究提供全景式的空间粒子分布数据,为磁层与电离层耦合、磁层能量耗散等MIT（磁层elax-elax电离层elax-elax热层耦合小卫星星座探测计划）科学研究任务提供重要的数据支撑.探测器的标定是研制过程的一个重要技术环节,是日后空间探测数据分析和反演基本依据.本文利用模拟信号源对中性原子成像仪原理样机的前端电子学系统进行了能谱定标,并利用电子加速器对标定的能谱进行了辐射测试验证.      

厦门电离层垂测仪电子浓度剖面最优插值同化的初步建立

最优插值(Optimal Interpolation, OI)同化是一种利用最小二乘法使分析误差方差极小化的方法. 提出并建立了一种电离层一维剖面最优插值的同化方法. 借鉴及参考气象的同化方法, 基于最优插值方法, 采用厦门电离层垂测仪2009年6至8月观测数据和一维电离层理论模式(IGGCAS1D)背景值来构建误差协方差, 并进行同化试验和分析预报. 结果表明方法可靠, 没有出现同化时背景数据与观测数据偏离较大的问题, 同化后所得结果与观测数据符合较好.      

利用Hp分量预测空间环境地磁活动指数Kp

地磁场扰动可以引起近地空间环境(包括电离层和磁层)一系列变化,地磁Kp指数是空间天气扰动的重要参考指标.采用地球同步轨道GOES-8卫星监测到的垂直于同步卫星轨道平面的地磁分量Hp数据,分析了地磁Kp指数与Hp分量波动幅度间的统计关系,结果显示,Hp分量的变化与Kp指数具有很好的相关性.利用回归分析和RBF神经网络方法,建立了Kp指数现报模型,根据地球同步轨道地磁场Hp分量的变化,计算出相同时段的Kp指数.监测结果表明,预报方法具有一定的有效性和实用性,特别是人工神经网络模式计算的Kp指数与实测结果吻合很好.利用此方法能够在不依赖于地面地磁探测数据的情况下,快速预报地磁扰动,及时为空间天气保障提供参考.同时,鉴于中国即将发射的风云四号搭载有地磁场探测仪,本项研究可为自主数据的应用奠定基础.     

A Review on the Ionospheric Research： Chinese Works During 2006-2008

This paper reviews various progresses on the ionospheric studies by the scientists in China during the last two years.The main contents concern the 4 aspects of the ionospheric research:(1)ionospheric weather and coupling with magnetosphere(polar and auroral ionosphere,ionospheric response to substorms,ionospheric storms);(2)mid-and low-latitude ionospheric climatology(ionospheric properties,yearly variations and solar activity dependence,long term variation);(3)ionospheric coupling with neutral atmosphere(gravity waves,tides,planetary waves,background upper atmosphere,and ionospheric response);and(4)ionospheric diagnostics(observation,modeling,and prediction).     

A Review on the Ionospheric Research:Chinese Works During 2006—2008

This paper reviews various progresses on the ionospheric studies by the scientists in China during the last two years.The main contents concern the 4 aspects of the ionospheric re-search:(1) ionospheric weather and coupling with magnetosphere(polar and auroral ionosphere,ionospheric response to substorms,ionospheric storms);(2) mid-and low-latitude ionospheric clima-tology(ionospheric properties,yearly variations and solar activity dependence,long term variation);(3) ionospheric coupling with neutral atmosphere(gravity waves,tides,planetary waves,background upper atmosphere,and ionospheric response);and(4) ionospheric diagnostics(observation,modeling,and prediction).     

Real-time global MHD simulation of the solar wind interaction with the earth’s magnetosphere

We have developed a real-time global MHD (magnetohydrodynamics) simulation of the solar wind interaction with the earth’s magnetosphere. By adopting the real-time solar wind parameters and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed routinely by the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft, responses of the magnetosphere are calculated with MHD code. The simulation is carried out routinely on the super computer system at National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), Japan. The visualized images of the magnetic field lines around the earth, pressure distribution on the meridian plane, and the conductivity of the polar ionosphere, can be referred to on the web site (http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/).The results show that various magnetospheric activities are almost reproduced qualitatively. They also give us information how geomagnetic disturbances develop in the magnetosphere in relation with the ionosphere. From the viewpoint of space weather, the real-time simulation helps us to understand the whole image in the current condition of the magnetosphere. To evaluate the simulation results, we compare the AE indices derived from the simulation and observations. The simulation and observation agree well for quiet days and isolated substorm cases in general.     

The thermosphere as a sink of magnetospheric energy: A review of recent observations of dynamics

The study of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the earth's upper atmosphere has made significant progress over the past few years owing to the availability of new global-scale data sets from the Dynamics Explorer satellites. The thermospheric wind and temperature fields at high latitude have been observed to depend strongly on forcing processes of magnetospheric origin. A key momentum source is due to the drag effect of ions convecting in response to electric fields mapped down on the ionosphere from magnetospheric boundary regions. Likewise, an important heat source derives from Joule or frictional dissipation due to ion/neutral difference velocities governed, in turn, by magnetospheric forcing. In this paper we discuss the progress made over the last 2–3 years initiated by the new satellite measurements and we review published data on ion and neutral motions in the context of the energy and momentum coupling between the magnetosphere and the ionosphere/neutral upper atmosphere. The observations indicate the existence of a “flywheel effect” which implies direct feedback from the neutral thermosphere to the magnetosphere via the release of energy and momentum previously “stored” in the neutral thermosphere.     

Specification of the Earth’s plasmasphere with data assimilation

In this paper we report on initial work toward data assimilative modeling of the Earth’s plasmasphere. As the medium of propagation for waves which are responsible for acceleration and decay of the radiation belts, an accurate assimilative model of the plasmasphere is crucial for optimizing the accurate prediction of the radiation environments encountered by satellites. On longer time-scales the plasmasphere exhibits significant dynamics. Although these dynamics are modeled well by existing models, they require detailed global knowledge of magnetospheric configuration which is not always readily available. For that reason data assimilation can be expected to be an effective tool in improving the modeling accuracy of the plasmasphere. In this paper we demonstrate that a relatively modest number of measurements, combined with a simple data assimilation scheme, inspired by the ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation technique does a good job of reproducing the overall structure of the plasmasphere including plume development. This raises hopes that data assimilation will be an effective method for accurately representing the configuration of the plasmasphere for space weather applications.     

VLF波渗透电离层传播计算研究进展

3~30kHz的甚低频（Very-Low-Frequency,VLF）电磁波对近地空间的高能粒子分布具有非常重要的作用.闪电和地面VLF通信台等VLF波主要辐射源产生的VLF波能够渗透进入电离层,并以哨声波模式继续传播至磁层与高能粒子发生相互作用.本文从VLF电磁波渗透电离层传播计算方法的发展、计算模型验证以及模型在电离层现象研究中的应用等方面对VLF波渗透进电离层之后的传播计算的研究进展进行综述,并对未来研究进行初步展望.      

太阳质子事件预报和射电Ⅰ型噪暴

太阳是一个异常活跃的天体,其爆发过程会对地球周围空间环境产生重要影响. 通常,单个高能质子即足以引起飞行器中微电子器件出现异常,因此太阳质子事件预报是空间天气预报的重要内容. 关于预报模型的参数选择尚有值得改进之处. 研究认为,Ⅰ型噪暴与日冕加热磁重联具有密切关系,可以作为预报参数. 通过两个典型太阳爆发事件的详细资料分析,说明了Ⅰ型噪暴与质子事件及CME的相关性.      

Solar-terrestrial research opportunities — A look to the future

In the late 1980's and in the 1990's we will have the opportunity to increase our knowledge of the sun, the heliosphere, and their influences on the earth's magnetosphere/ionosphere/atmosphere system. We should be able to gain increased knowledge of the physical mechanisms that drive the sun, the three-dimensional structure of the heliosphere, and the flow of energy and momentum from the sun through the interplanetary medium to the magentosphere/ionosphere/atmosphere system. We also may be able to evaluate the influence of the solar radiative output on the earth's atmosphere. Through well-coordinated national and international efforts we can plan and carry forward successful programs to accomplish these scientific goals. Space missions, ground-based observing networks, and rocket and balloon campaigns are needed and should be well-coordinated. Wide and easy access of data will help ensure the effectiveness of these programs. Retrospective studies, theory, modelling, simulations, and data analysis are also vital elements of research in this area. There are important scientific opportunities for scientists from all countries.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.