Application of a Multiple Hypothesis Filter to near GEO high area-to-mass ratio space objects state estimation

Optical surveys have identified a class of high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects in the vicinity of the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) regime. The nature of these objects is not well known, though their proximity to the GEO belt implies origins from space objects (SOs) near GEO. These HAMR objects pose a collision hazard as they transit through the vicinity of active GEO satellites. Due to their high area-to-mass ratios (AMRs), ranging from 0.1 to 20 m²/kg and higher, the effective solar radiation pressure perturbs their orbits significantly. Improvements in detection sensitivity will result in large numbers of uncorrelated tracks from surveys. A Multiple Hypothesis Filter (MHF) approach to the initial state estimation and track association provides a potentially automated and efficient approach to the processing of multiple un-correlated tracks.The availability of long-term optical angles data collected for a set of near GEO HAMR objects provides the means for testing candidate estimation processes such as the MHF. A baseline orbit determination (OD) process uses an Extended Kalman Filter/Smoother to manually estimate the 6 orbital elements and the effective area-to-mass ratio (AMR) which drives the solar radiation pressure perturbations on the orbital trajectories. In addition to allowing the characterization of the long-term behavior of the AMR, this process establishes a pseudo-truth trajectory to which the MHF analysis can be compared. An Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) is applied in the MHF estimation process to estimate the 6 orbital elements and AMR, with no a priori state assumptions, and the results are compared to the pseudo-truth results for validation.The work to be presented summarizes the UKF/MHF process and assesses state estimation performance based on selected data for selected near GEO HAMR objects having a range of AMR value and variations. The prediction accuracy is also assessed by comparing predictions derived from filter updates to segments of the pseudo-truth trajectory determined from data not included in the updates.     

Application of a Multiple Hypothesis Filter to near GEO high area-to-mass ratio space objects state estimation

Optical surveys have identified a class of high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects in the vicinity of the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) regime. The nature of these objects is not well known, though their proximity to the GEO belt implies origins from space objects (SOs) near GEO. These HAMR objects pose a collision hazard as they transit through the vicinity of active GEO satellites. Due to their high area-to-mass ratios (AMRs), ranging from 0.1 to 20 m²/kg and higher, the effective solar radiation pressure perturbs their orbits significantly. Improvements in detection sensitivity will result in large numbers of uncorrelated tracks from surveys. A Multiple Hypothesis Filter (MHF) approach to the initial state estimation and track association provides a potentially automated and efficient approach to the processing of multiple un-correlated tracks.The availability of long-term optical angles data collected for a set of near GEO HAMR objects provides the means for testing candidate estimation processes such as the MHF. A baseline orbit determination (OD) process uses an Extended Kalman Filter/Smoother to manually estimate the 6 orbital elements and the effective area-to-mass ratio (AMR) which drives the solar radiation pressure perturbations on the orbital trajectories. In addition to allowing the characterization of the long-term behavior of the AMR, this process establishes a pseudo-truth trajectory to which the MHF analysis can be compared. An Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) is applied in the MHF estimation process to estimate the 6 orbital elements and AMR, with no a priori state assumptions, and the results are compared to the pseudo-truth results for validation.The work to be presented summarizes the UKF/MHF process and assesses state estimation performance based on selected data for selected near GEO HAMR objects having a range of AMR value and variations. The prediction accuracy is also assessed by comparing predictions derived from filter updates to segments of the pseudo-truth trajectory determined from data not included in the updates.     

Design and development of correlation techniques to maintain a space surveillance system catalogue

A growing interest exists in a future, autonomous European Space Surveillance System (ESSS). Currently, most of the knowledge about Earth-orbiting space objects is based on information provided by the USASPACECOM. This paper presents the required initial orbit determination (IOD) and correlation techniques to process optical measurements. Former studies were focused on the handling of radar measurements, which are summarised with the aim of describing a global procedure for processing hybrid measurement types (combination of radar and optic data for catalogue maintenance). The introduction of manoeuvres are presented due to their importance in the space object catalogue maintenance.The detection of uncatalogued objects and the successful correlation of already catalogued objects involve two different tasks for telescopes: survey and tasking. Assumptions for both strategies are developed on the basis of the previous work developed at the University of Berne (see [T. Flohrer, T. Schildknecht, R. Musci, E. Stöveken, Performance estimation for GEO space surveillance, Advances in Space Research 35 (2005). [1]; T. Flohrer, T. Schildknecht, R. Musci, Proposed strategies for optical observations in a future European Space Surveillance Network, presented in the 36th COSPAR Scientific Assembly (2006). [2]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, M. Ploner, Orbit improvement for GEO objects using follow-up observations, Advances in Space Research 34 (2004). [3]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, M. Ploner, G. Beutler, Orbit improvement for GTO objects using follow-up observations, Advances in Space Research 35 (2005). [4]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, T. Flohrer, G. Beutler, Concept for a catalogue of space debris in GEO, Proceedings of the Fourth European Conference on Space Debris, (ESA SP-587, 2005). [5]]). When a new object appears in the field of view, initial orbit determination must be performed. When only one telescope per site is available, the initial measurements are separated by only a few seconds. Therefore, the initial orbit determination is quite inaccurate due to bad mathematical conditioning of the problem. In order to improve the accuracy of the initial orbit determination, several follow-up observations of the object are required. This implies that the telescope needs to track the detected objects over a long period, and therefore the time available for surveying is reduced. By processing the additional follow-up measurements, separated now by a few hours, the initial orbit determination gives more accurate results and the object can be recovered after an orbital revolution. When several telescopes per site are available, the optical strategies may be modified. The survey tasks can be distributed between the available telescopes. In this way the number of images corresponding to each object increases and to track the detected object over long periods is not always needed. Numerical results will be shown in order to evaluate the accuracy and features of the different telescope strategies. A key point for performing efficiently the cataloguing process is the calculation of the estimated state vector covariance matrix. The covariance matrix analysis allows an adaptive tasking-survey telescope scheduling. Moreover, the implementation of a proper batch orbit determination process by means of a square root information filter (SRIF) requires a realistic initial covariance matrix.Hybrid measurements are available from objects that can be observed through both radar and optical sensors (e.g. GTO objects). The batch orbit determination and correlation process of hybrid measurements is also based on SRIF using an extended measurement model. Both the initial orbit determination methods using radar and optical measurements have to be sufficiently accurate to initialise SRIF correctly. In order to avoid filter divergence, the estimated covariance must be correctly updated after processing both kinds of measurements. The implemented algorithms are explained and their performance is shown through realistic simulations.Techniques to detect and characterise object manoeuvres during the cataloguing process have been developed and implemented. Four main groups of manoeuvre objects have been established by means of their observed permitted orbital ranges (GEO, LEO, MEO–GPS, Molniya). The study is based on the historical TLEs files. When an object with an uncatalogued orbit appears, a comparison between the new orbit and the orbits contained in the permitted ranges of one of the manoeuvre groups is performed. If the required Δa and/or Δi to convert the lost orbit into the detected orbit seems to be feasible, a manoeuvre will be identified and the orbit will be updated in the catalogue. Otherwise, it will be decided that a new object was found. For this purpose, a procedure to estimate the manoeuvres and reset orbits have been developed.     

A Geosynchronous Orbit Search Strategy

Since more than 10 years there is evidence that small-size space debris is accumulating in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO), probably as the result of breakups. Two break-ups have been reported in GEO. The 1978 break-up of an EKRAN 2 satellite, SSN 10365, was identified in 1992, and in 1992 a Titan 3C Transtage, SSN 3432, break-up produced at least twenty observable pieces. Subsequently several nations performed optical surveys of the GEO region in the form of independent observation campaigns. Such surveys suffer from the fact that the field of view of optical telescopes is small compared with the total area covered by the GEO ring. As a consequence only a small volume of the orbital element-magnitude-space is covered by each individual survey. Results from these surveys are thus affected by observational biases and therefore difficult to compare. This paper describes the development of a common search strategy to overcome these limitations. The strategy optimizes the sampling for objects in orbits similar to the orbits of the known GEO population but does not exclude the detection of objects with other orbital planes. A properly designed common search strategy clearly eases the comparison of results from different groups and the extrapolation from the sparse (biased) samples to the entire GEO environment.     

New insights on the orbital debris collision hazard at GEO

An analysis is performed of the orbital debris collision hazard to operational spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit (GEO). As part of the examination, the contribution of individual components of the population are considered and presented to provide a clearer linkage between object characteristic and resulting risk. Our examination of GEO collision risk reveals several critical new insights: (1) the current probability of collision in GEO is relatively low, yet the future is difficult to predict due to our limited ability to observe objects in GEO and the uncertainty in past and future debris-generating events in GEO; (2) the probability of collision in GEO is not uniform by longitude — it is seven times greater in regions centered about the geopotential wells; (3) the probability of a mission-terminating collision is greatly dependent upon the approximately 2200 objects in the 10 cm–1 m range observed in GEO but not yet cataloged; (4) hardware relocated to GEO “graveyard” disposal orbits pose a potential additional, but not fully understood, collision hazard to operational GEO satellites; and (5) the collision hazard throughout the course of a day or year is highly episodic (i.e. non-uniform).     

Ground assisted rendezvous with geosynchronous satellites for the disposal of space debris by means of Earth-oriented tethers

Previous studies have shown that extended length Earth-oriented tethers in the geosynchronous (GEO) region can be used to re-orbit satellites to disposal orbits. One such approach involves the extension of a GEO based tether, collection of a debris object, and retraction of the tether, which transfers the retracted configuration to a higher energy orbit for debris disposal. The re-extension of the tether after debris disposal returns the configuration to the near-GEO altitude. The practical feasibility of such a system depends on the ability to collect GEO debris objects, attach them to a deployed tether system, and retract the tethers for transfer to the disposal orbits.This study addresses the collection and delivery of debris objects to the deployed tether system in GEO. The investigation considers the number, type and the characteristics of the debris objects as well as the collection tug that can be ground controlled to detect, rendezvous and dock with the debris objects for their delivery to the tethers system.A total of more than 400 objects are in drift orbits crossing all longitudes either below or above the geostationary radius. More than 130 objects are also known to librate around the stable points in GEO with periods of libration up to five or more years. A characterization of the position and velocity of the debris objects relative to the collection tug is investigated. Typical rendezvous performance requirements for uncooperative GEO satellites are examined, and the similarities with other approaches such as the ESA's CX-OLEV commercial mission proposal to extend the life of geostationary telecommunication satellites are noted.     

Orbital evolution of the first upper stages used for the new European and Chinese navigation satellite systems

The solutions adopted for the disposal of the upper stages used to put in orbit the first satellites of the new European (Galileo) and Chinese (Beidou) navigation constellations were analyzed. The orbit evolution of the rocket bodies was modeled for 200 years, taking into account all relevant perturbations, and the chosen disposal options were evaluated in terms of their long-term consequences for the debris environment. The results obtained, when applicable, were also discussed in the context of the eccentricity instability problem, pointed out in previous studies. In addition, the long-term evolution of the fragments resulting from a Beidou rocket body breakup, and of simulated high area-to-mass ratio objects released in the disposal orbits of the first two Galileo upper stages, was investigated.Eight out of ten Beidou upper stages were found to have an orbital lifetime <25 years and the other two resulted in a dwell time of approximately 6 years below 2000 km. It was also found that the perigee heights of the two upper stages used to deploy the first Galileo test spacecraft will remain more than 169 km above the constellation nominal altitude, never crossing the existing or planned navigation systems. In spite of an inclination resonance possibly leading to the exponential growth of the eccentricity over several decades, the optimal choice of the disposal orbital elements was able to prevent such an outcome, by maintaining the orbit nearly circular. Therefore, the upper stage disposal strategies used so far for Beidou and Galileo have generally been quite successful in averting the long-term interference of such rocket bodies with the navigation constellations, provided that accidental breakups are prevented.     

Strategy for detection of eccentric objects near the geosynchronous region

Detection of eccentric objects near the geosynchronous region is a very important issue. However, the extremely narrow fields-of-view of optical telescopes hinders us from identifying eccentric objects. An observation strategy to systematically detect these objects and determine their orbits precisely with one telescope is outlined in this presentation. Basically, one specific geosynchronous location (not one specific celestial position) is observed on two nights. Objects which pass through that location in the first night must pass through that location again in the second night. By identifying the same objects from two nights of data, rough orbits for those objects are determined. A third night is needed for precise orbital determination. An application of this strategy to the observation for Titan fragments is also discussed.     

Can solar sails be used to test fundamental physics?

The relative importance of certain general relativistic effects is enhanced by solar radiation pressure (SRP). The observation and study of the trajectories of a solar sail could potentially provide tests of various effects of general relativity. In particular, we study Keplerian and non-Keplerian orbits near the sun as well as escape trajectories for a solar sail, for which general relativistic effects and the solar radiation pressure are considered simultaneously. In contrast with the conventional solar mission, a solar sail allows for non-Keplerian orbits, for which the orbital plane lies above the sun. It is predicted that there is an analog of the Lense–Thirring effect for non-Keplerian orbits. Also the SRP increases the amount of precession per orbit due to the Lense–Thirring effect for polar heliocentric orbits. A solar sail would also enhance the relative importance of effects associated with a possible net charge on the sun and during many rotations this effect may be measurable.     

Longitude-dependent effects of fragmentation events in the geosynchronous orbit regime

The effects of on-orbit fragmentation events on localized debris congestion in each of the longitude slots of the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) regime are evaluated by simulating explosions and collisions of uncontrolled rocket bodies in multiple orbit configurations, including libration about one or both of the gravitational wells located at 75°E and 105°W. Fragmentation distributions are generated with the NASA Standard Breakup Model, which samples fragment area-to-mass ratio and delta-velocity as a function of effective diameter. Simulation results indicate that the long-term severity and consequence of a GEO fragmentation event is strongly dependent upon parent body longitude at the epoch of fragmentation, which can spawn bi-annual “fragment storms” in high-risk longitude slots, driven by lower-energy fragments that have been captured and have started librating around the nearby gravitational well.     

地球静止轨道在轨服务技术研究现状与发展趋势

地球静止轨道(GEO)是人类仅有的一条独特卫星轨道,是极其珍贵的轨道资源。首先分 析了GEO环境现状和未来趋势,然后从“GEO轨道保护”和“GEO卫星在轨维护”两方面论述 了GEO在轨服务技术的内涵、服务机会和效益,介绍了世界各国GEO在轨服务技术的主要研究 进展,归纳了其中的关键技术。最后,对未来的发展趋势进行了展望。
     

International Practices to Protect the Geostationary Ring

Since more than 20 years reorbiting of geostationary satellites at the end of their mission is recommended and partially performed to protect the GEO environment. Now a worldwide accepted reorbiting altitude was defined by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). Still only one-third of the aging satellites follow this IADC rule. Based on orbital data in the DISCOS database, the situation in the geostationary ring is analyzed. From 878 known objects, 305 are controlled inside their longitude slots, 353 are drifting above, below or through GEO, and 125 are in a libration orbit (status of January 2001). In the last four years (1997–2000) 58 spacecraft reached end-of-life. Twenty of them were reorbited in compliance with the IADC recommendations, 16 were reorbited below this recommendation and 22 were abandoned without any end-of-life disposal manoeuvre.     

General solution for the optimal trajectory of an AFE-type spacecraft

The aeroassisted flight experiment (AFE) refers to an experimental spacecraft to be launched and then recovered by the Space Shuttle. It simulates a transfer from a geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) to a low Earth orbit (LEO). In this paper, with reference to an AFE-type spacecraft, an actual GEO-to-LEO transfer is considered under the following assumptions: the GEO and LEO orbital planes are identical; both the initial and final orbits are circular; the initial phase angle is given, while the final phase angle is free. The aeroassisted orbital transfer trajectory involves three branches: a preatmospheric branch, GEO-to-entry; an atmospheric branch, entry-to-exit; a post-atmospheric branch, exit-to-LEO. The optimal trajectory is determined by minimizing the total characteristic velocity. The optimization is performed with respect to the velocity impulses at GEO, LEO, and the time history of the angle of bank during the atmospheric pass. It is assumed that the entry path inclination is free and that the angle of attack is constant, = 17.0 deg. The sequential gradient-restoration algorithm is used to compute the optimal trajectory and it is shown that the best atmospheric pass is to be performed with constant angle of bank. The resulting optimal trajectory constitutes an ideal nominal trajectory for the generation of guidance trajectories for two reasons: the fact that the low value of the characteristic velocity is accompanied by relatively low values of the peak heating rate and the peak dynamic pressure; and the simplicity of the control distribution, requiring constant angle of bank.     

天基空间监视交会计算和可观测时段预报的误差分析

将卫星和目标的轨道预报误差引入天基空间目标监视的任务规划中,研究了交会计算和可观测时段预报的误差分析方法。在协方差转换基本方法和交会信息计算公式的基础上,推导了从RSW轨道坐标系到RAE参数（距离、方位角、俯仰角）的协方差转换方法。对LEO和GEO目标观测分别引入相对速度和角距变化率,给出了可观测时段误差的分析方法。算例表明本文的计算结果与Monte-Carlo仿真结果相对误差不大于4%,典型轨道误差下LEO和GEO目标的可观测时段误差分别为0.2秒和3秒量级。该方法对任务规划和姿态及相机导引具有指导意义,还可用于分析成功观测对轨道预报精度的需求。     

Single crystal mo solar thermal thruster for microsatellites

One potentially attractive propulsion concept offering significant payload gains for orbit transfer from LEO to higher orbits, station keeping and attitude control of spacecraft is thermal propulsion using light gas (typically hydrogen) as propellant and various kinds of heat energy. Solar Thermal Propulsion (STP) is a typical thermal propulsion with high Isp (500 – 1,000 s) in an appropriate thrust magnitude range and provides possibly much less space pollution than conventional chemical propulsion.

This paper presents the test results of a 30 mm dia. (medium-sized) windowless type of single crystal Mo thruster for orbit transfer of 50 kg class microsatellites. The cavity dia. is 20 mm, double the size of the previous model, and can apply to a primary solar reflector of up to 3.5 m dia., which is the maximum size containable in the H-II rocket fairing without segmentation. The performed mission analyses indicate that this size of STP is suitable to orbit transfer of 50 kg class microsatellites, such as LEO to GEO, or only multiple apogee kicks from GTO to GEO or deep space missions.     

绳系卫星系统交会对接的应用与设计

文章介绍了绳系系统交会对接这项新技术在空间中的应用。主要包括:空间站利用系绳与航天器交会对接,实现为空间站提供各种供给;利用绳系系统与空间碎片对接,可回收或转移空间碎片,保护空间环境;利用一级或多级的绳系系统组成轨道转移系统,实现向地球同步轨道或火星轨道上转移和运送有效载荷。文章还介绍了绳系交会对接系统的设计,包括系统的一般控制方法和算法以及系统的结构设计。随着各项相关技术的发展,绳系卫星系统交会对接将发挥更大作用。     

第二类无奇点根数的北斗历书参数设计

为统一北斗三类卫星的历书拟合算法,提出基于第二类无奇点根数进行历书参数设计的方法,设计了以倾角向量变率作为摄动参数的历书参数模型,并给出新的历书模型的用户使用算法。利用覆盖2013年全年的实际在轨卫星的数值轨道进行了历书拟合试验。结果表明,地球静止轨道（GEO）和倾斜地球同步轨道（IGSO)卫星的拟合位置误差为2~4km,拟合用户距离误差（URE）约为1km,中圆地球轨道（MEO）卫星的拟合位置误差为1~2km,拟合URE约为500m。通过分析6个轨道根数和2个摄动参数全年的变化范围,对新历书模型进行量化单位和占用比特位的通信接口设计,定量分析量化单位对历书表达精度的影响。结果表明,参数截断后对位置误差的影响小于50m,对URE误差的影响小于5m。因此,历书量化误差对信号捕获以及首次定位时间带来的影响可以忽略不计。     

Imaging of extrasolar advanced terrestrial planets

The gravitational lens effect of the Sun would allow, by using a detector at one of its foci, to obtain a “telescope” with gigantic amplification and resolution powers opening extraordinary perspectives for the detailed study of extrasolar planets, particularly technologically advanced ones. But, astronautical challenges are raised by the necessity to align precisely and put in an efficient tracking and scanning mode the detector, necessarily modest in size compared to the dimensions of the planet images and ranges of orbital and rotational motions. In the frame of the FOCAL space mission submitted to ESA, we present the dynamical geometry of the images for two typical cases of observational wavelengths: 10 centimeters (radio) and 10 micrometers (infrared), for a solar-type stellar system 10 parsecs away. Plasma thrusters could provide interesting solutions for the control of the detector for tracking and scanning the focal images.     

A Retrospective Geometric Analysis of the Long-Term Evolution of Orbits and the Ballistic Lifetime for Satellites of the Prognoz Series

We consider the applied aspects of the geometrical analysis of solutions in a restricted circular double-averaged three-body problem that are concerned with the design of high-apogee satellite orbits. Based on the analysis of the long-term evolution and the ballistic lifetime for orbit families of the Prognoz satellites launched into their orbits in the period 1972–1995, we suggest some practical suggestions for choosing long-lived high-apogee orbits with taking into account various requirements for the domain of evolution of the orbital elements.     

GEO卫星红外地球敏感器热设计敏感性分析

文章提出了一种GEO卫星红外地球敏感器的热设计方法,建立了红外地球敏感器热数学模型,对影响红外地球敏感器散热的热设计要素进行敏感性定量分析,以指导优化热设计。分析验证表明:经过优化的红外地球敏感器热控方案,能很好地满足卫星15 a寿命期红外地球敏感器工作温度要求。该设计方法已在“东方红四号”平台系列卫星上成功应用,并得到在轨验证。