Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan,Iran, (Mw = 7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013

A powerful earthquake of M_w = 7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107° N, 62.053° E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8 days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN + PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN + PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.     

Genetic algorithm for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection around the time of the Solomon (Mw = 8.0) earthquake of 06 February 2013

On 6 February 2013, at 12:12:27 local time (01:12:27 UTC) a seismic event registering M_w 8.0 struck the Solomon Islands, located at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. Time series prediction is an important and widely interesting topic in the research of earthquake precursors. This paper describes a new computational intelligence approach to detect the unusual variations of the total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the powerful Solomon earthquake using genetic algorithm (GA). The GA detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences on earthquake day and also 7 and 8 days prior to the earthquake in a period of high geomagnetic activities. In this study, also the detected TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed TEC anomalies by applying the mean, median, wavelet, Kalman filter, ARIMA, neural network and support vector machine methods. The accordance in the final results of all eight methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the GA method. It indicates that GA can be an appropriate non-parametric tool for anomaly detection in a non linear time series showing the seismo-ionospheric precursors variations.     

Use of principal component analysis in the identification of the spatial pattern of an ionospheric total electron content anomalies after China’s May 12, 2008, M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper uses principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the spatial pattern of total electron content (TEC) anomalies in the ionosphere post the China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May, 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9). PCA and image processing are applied to the global ionospheric map (GIM) with transforms conducted for the time period 08:00–10:00 UT on 12 May 2008. Results show that at a height of approximately 200 km the anomaly is widespread and less intense; however, it becomes more localized with height reaching maximum intensity and localization at an altitude of 300 km. The spatial distribution is remarkably similar to that reported for a TEC anomaly previously identified as a precursor anomaly on May 9, 2008 for the same time period. Potential causes of the results are discussed with emphasis given to vertical acoustic gravity waves based on the spatial pattern identified.     

An Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System for the detection of thermal and TEC anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan,Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake of 11 August 2012

Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (M_w = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.     

Studies of electron and ion temperatures at 500 km altitude during sunrise using Indian SROSS C2 satellite

Solar dependence of electron and ion temperatures (T_e and T_i) in the ionosphere is studied using RPA data onboard SROSS C2 at an altitude of ∼500 km and 77°E longitude during early morning hours (04:00–07:00 LT) for three solar activities: solar minimum, moderate and maximum during winter, summer and equinox months in 10°S–20°N geomagnetic latitude. In winter the morning overshoot phenomenon is observed around 06:00 LT (T_e enhances to ∼4000 K) during low-solar activity and to T_e ∼ 3800 K, during higher solar activity. In summer, it is observed around 05:30 LT, but the rate of T_e enhancement is higher during moderate solar activity (∼2700 K/hr) than the low-solar activity (∼1700 K/hr). During equinox, this phenomenon is delayed and is observed around 06:00 LT (∼4200 K) during all three activities.     

Two-dimensional ionospheric total electron content map (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies through image processing using principal component analysis

This paper examines China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9) using principal component analysis and image processing of the global ionospheric map (GIM) for the region. Transforms are conducted for 4, 8, and 9 May 2008. The GIMs are subdivided into 100 (36° in Long. and 18° in Lat.) smaller maps. The smaller maps (71 × 71 pixels) form the transform matrices of corresponding dimensions (2 × 1) through image processing. The transform allows for principle eigenvalues to be assigned to TEC anomalies for May 8 and 9. These may represent the seismo-ionospheric signature described by Zhao et al. (2008). The May 4 result shows no evidence of TEC anomalies. These results are in keeping with the findings of Liu et al. (2009). It is evident in this research that PCA could have the capacity to detect both the seismo-ionospheric signature and determine the approximate location of an earthquake’s epicenter prior to nucleation.     

Solar cycle and latitude dependence of high-beta suprathermal plasma conditions in interplanetary space between 1.3 and 5.4 AU

The analysis of energetic particles and magnetic field measurements from the Ulysses spacecraft has shown that in a series of events, the energy density contained in the suprathermal tail particle distribution is comparable to or larger than that of the magnetic field, creating conditions of high-beta plasma. In this work we analyze periods of high-beta suprathermal plasma occurrences (β_ep > 1) in interplanetary space, using the ratio (β_ep) of the energetic particle (20 keV to ∼5 MeV) and magnetic field energy densities from measurements covering the entire Ulysses mission lifetime (1990–2009) in order to reveal new or to reconfirm some recently defined interesting characteristics. The main key-results of the work are summarized as follows: (i) we verify that high-beta events are detected within well identified regions corresponding mainly to the vicinity of shock surfaces and magnetic structures, and associated with energetic particle intensity enhancements due to (a) reacceleration at shock-fronts and (b) unusually large magnetic field depressions. (ii) We define three considerable features for the high-beta events, concentrated on the next points: (a) there is an appreciable solar-activity influence on the high-beta events, during the maximum and middle solar-cycle phase, (b) the annual peak magnitude and the number of occurrences of high events are well correlated with the sunspot number, (c) the high-beta suprathermal plasma events present a spatial distribution in heliographic latitudes (HL) up to ∼±80°, and a specific important concentration on the low (−25° ? HL < −6°, 6° < HL ? 25°) and median (−45° ? HL < −25°, 25° < HL ? 45°) latitudes. We also reconfirm by a statistical analysis the results of Marhavilas and Sarris (2011), that the high-beta suprathermal plasma (β_ep > 1) events are characterized by a very large parameter β_ep (up to 1732.5), a great total duration (406 days) and a large percentage of the Ulysses-mission lifetime (which is equal to 6.34% of the total duration with usable measurements, and 11.3% of the duration in presence of suprathermal particles events).     

Equatorial vertical E × B drift velocities inferred from ionosonde measurements over Ouagadougou and the IRI-2007 vertical ion drift model

F-region vertical plasma drift velocities were deduced from the hourly hmF2 values acquired from ionogram data over a near dip equatorial station Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 358.5°E, dip angle 5.9°N) in Africa. Our results are compared against the global empirical model of Scherliess and Fejer (1999) incorporated in the IRI model (IRI-2007) for 1600 to 0800 LT from 1 year of data during sunspot maximum year of 1989 (yearly average solar flux intensity, F10.7 = 192) corresponding to the peak phase of solar cycle 22, under magnetically quiet conditions. The drifts are entirely downward between 2000 and 0500 LT bin for both techniques and the root mean square error (RMSE) between the modeled and the ionosonde vertical plasma drifts during these periods is 3.80, 4.37, and 4.74 m/s for June solstice, December solstice and equinox, respectively. Ouagadougou average vertical drifts show evening prereversal enhancement (PRE) velocity peaks (V_ZP) of about 16, 14, and 17 m/s in June solstice, December solstice, and equinox, respectively, at 1900–2000 LT; whereas global empirical model average drifts indicate V_ZP of approximately 33 m/s (June solstice), 29 m/s (December solstice), and 50 m/s (equinox) at 1800 LT. We find very weak and positive correlation (+0.10376) between modeled V_ZP versus F10.7, while ionosonde V_ZP against F10.7 gives worst and opposite correlation (−0.05799). The results also show that modeled V_ZP–Ap indicates good and positive correlation (+0.64289), but ionosonde V_ZP–Ap exhibits poor and negative correlation (−0.22477).     

Quantifying the relationship between the measurement precision and specifications of a UV/visible sensor on a geostationary satellite

To investigate the feasibility of new satellite observations, including air quality (AQ) observations from geostationary (GEO) orbit, it is essential to link the measurement precision (ε) with sensor specifications in advance. The present study attempts to formulate the linkage between ε and specifications of a UV/visible sensor (signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the slit function, and sampling ratio (SR)) on a GEO satellite. A sophisticated radiative transfer model (JACOSPAR) is used to calculate synthetic radiance spectra that would be measured by a UV/visible sensor observing the atmosphere over Tokyo (35.7°N, 139.7°E) from GEO orbit at 120°E longitude. The spectra, modified according to given sensor specifications, are analyzed by the differential optical absorption spectroscopy technique to estimate the ε for slant column densities of O₃ and NO₂. We find clear relationships: for example, the ε of the O₃ slant column density (molecules cm⁻²) and SNR at 330 nm are linked by the equation log(ε) = −1.06 · log(SNR) + 20.71 in the UV region, and the ε of the NO₂ slant column density and SNR at 450 nm are linked by log(ε) = −0.98 · log(SNR) + 18.00, at a FWHM = 0.6 nm (for the Gaussian slit function) and SR = 4. The relationships are mostly independent of other specifications (e.g., horizontal and temporal resolutions), as they affect ε primarily through SNR, providing constraints in determining the optimal SNR (and alternatively FWHM and SR) for similar UV/visible sensors dedicated for AQ studies.     

Variability of the ionosphere over Irkutsk at low solar activity

Statistical and spectral analyses are performed to investigate variations of two ionosphere F2 layer key parameters, the critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2), that were measured over Irkutsk (52.5°N, 104.0°E) from December 2006 to January 2008 under solar minimum. The analyses showed that both parameters contain quasi-harmonic oscillations with periods of T_n = 24/n hours (n = 1–7), among which the diurnal (n = 1) and semidiurnal (n = 2) ones are the strongest. Seasonal variations are explored of mean and median values, spectrum, amplitude, and phase of the diurnal and semidiurnal components of foF2 and hmF2.     

Comparing IRI and a regional model with ionosonde measurements in Pakistan

We have used the technique of expansion in Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to develop regional models of the critical frequencies of E and F₂ layers (f_oE, f_oF₂), peak height (h_mF₂), and semi-thickness of F₂ layer (Y_mF₂) over Pakistan. In the present study levels of solar activity specified by Smoothed Sunspot Number (R) from 10 to 200 are taken into account. The magnetic dip angle for the model ranges from 30° to 60°. We have compared the regional model and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) with measurements of three ionosondes in Pakistan. The model parameters f_oE and f_oF₂ are found overall comparable to the observed hourly median values during daytime at Karachi (geographic latitude = 24.95°N, longitude = 67.13°E, magnetic inclination = 37°), Multan (30.18°N, 71.48°E, 45°) and Islamabad (33.75°N, 73.13°E, 51.5°) during the years 1988, 1996 and 2000. For h_mF₂ the computed values by regional and IRI model for the year 1995 are found close to each other. However, for Y_mF₂the results are better during daytime as compared to nighttime.     

Validation of B2bot in the NeQuick model during high solar activity at Hainan station

NeQuick ionospheric electron density model, which has been developed to version 2, produces the full electron density profile in the ionosphere. Each part of the profile is modeled using Epstein layer formalism. Simple empirical relations are used to compute the thicknesses of each layer. In order to validate the B2_bot parameter in the NeQuick model during high solar activity, we use the data at Hainan, China (109.1°E, 19.5°N; Geomagnetic coordinates: 178.95°E, 8.1°N), measured with DPS-4, and study the diurnal and seasonal variations of B2_bot, ΔB2 (B2_best − B2_NeQuick 2) and the seasonal median values of B2_best/B2_NeQuick 2 at that region. The results show that, (1) The differences between B2_best and B2_NeQuick 2 have diurnal and seasonal variations. (2) The diurnal variations of B2_NeQuick 2 are smaller than those of B2_best. (3) Generally, except for early morning the experimental values are properly reproduced. (4) Generally, during morning the NeQuick model has an underestimation. The magnitude of underestimation varies with LT and season.     

Jovian periodicities (∼10 h, ∼40 min) on Ulysses’ Distant Jupiter Encounter observations around the Halloween CIR events

We analyzed data from four different instruments (HI-SCALE, URAP, SWOOPS, VHM/FGM) onboard Ulysses spacecraft (s/c) and we searched for possible evidence of Jovian emissions when the s/c approached Jupiter during the times of Halloween events (closest time approach/position to Jupiter: February 5, 2004/R = 1683 R_J,θ = ∼49°). In particular, we analyzed extensively the low energy ion measurements obtained by the HI-SCALE experiment in order to examine whether low energy ion/electron emissions show a symmetry, and whether they are observed at north high latitudes upstream from the jovian bow shock, as is known to occur in the region upstream from the south bow shock as well ( Marhavilas et al., 2001). We studied the period from October 2003 to March 2004, as Ulysses moved at distances 0.8–1.2 AU from the planet at north Jovicentric latitudes <75°, and we present here an example of characteristic Jovian periodicities in the measurements around a CIR observed by Ulysses on days ∼348–349/2003 (R = 1894 R_J,θ = 72°). We show that Ulysses observed low energy ion (∼0.055–4.7 MeV) and electron (>∼40 keV) flux and/or spectral modulation with the Jupiter rotation period (∼10 h) as well as variations with the same period in solar wind parameters, radio and magnetic field directional data. In addition, characteristic strong ∼40 min periodic variations were found superimposed on the ∼10 h ion spectral modulation. Both the ∼10 h and ∼40 min ion periodicities in HI-SCALE measurements were present in several cases during the whole period examined (October 2003 to March 2004) and were found to be more evident during some special conditions, for instance during enhanced fluxes around the start (forward shock) and the end (reverse shock) of CIRs. We infer that the Jovian magnetosphere was triggered by the impact of the CIRs, after the Halloween events, and it was (a) a principal source of forward and reverse shock-associated ion flux structures and (b) the cause of generation of ∼10 h quasi-periodic magnetic field and plasma modulation observed by Ulysses at those times.     

Multi precursors analysis associated with the powerful Ecuador (MW = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016 using Swarm satellites data in conjunction with other multi-platform satellite and ground data

After DEMETER satellite mission (2004–2010), the launch of the Swarm satellites (Alpha (A), Bravo (B) and Charlie (C)) has created a new opportunity in the study of earthquake ionospheric precursors. Nowadays, there is no doubt that multi precursors analysis is a necessary phase to better understand the LAIC (Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling) mechanism before large earthquakes. In this study, using absolute scalar magnetometer, vector field magnetometer and electric field instrument on board Swarm satellites, GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements, MODIS-Aqua satellite and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data, the variations of the electron density and temperature, magnetic field, TEC (Total Electron Content), LST (Land Surface Temperature), AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) and SKT (SKin Temperature) have been surveyed to find the potential seismic anomalies around the strong Ecuador (M_w = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016. The four solar and geomagnetic indices: F10.7, D_st, K_p and a_p were investigated to distinguish whether the preliminary detected anomalies might be associated with the solar-geomagnetic activities instead of the seismo-ionospheric anomalies. The Swarm satellites (A, B and C) data analysis indicate the anomalies in time series of electron density variations on 7, 11 and 12 days before the event; the unusual variations in time series of electron temperature on 8 days preceding the earthquake; the analysis of the magnetic field scalar and vectors data show the considerable anomalies 52, 48, 23, 16, 11, 9 and 7 days before the main shock. A striking anomaly is detected in TEC variations on 1 day before earthquake at 9:00 UTC. The analysis of MODIS-Aqua night-time images shows that LST increase unusually on 11 days prior to main shock. In addition, the AOD variations obtained from MODIS measurements reach the maximum value on 10 days before the earthquake. The SKT around epicentral region presents anomalous higher value about 40 days before the earthquake. It should be noted that the different lead times of the observed anomalies could be acknowledged based on a reasonable LAIC earthquake mechanism. Our results emphasize that the Swarm satellites measurements play an undeniable role in progress the studies of the ionospheric precursors.     

Variations of ionospheric total electron content before three strong earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet region

We investigate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet region before three large earthquakes (M > 7.0). The temporal and spatial TEC variations were used to detect the ionospheric possible precursors of these earthquakes. We identified two TEC enhancements in the afternoon local time 9 days and 2–3 days before each earthquake, between which a TEC decrement occurred 3–6 days before earthquakes. These anomalies happened in the area of about 30° in latitude and the maximum is localized equatorward from the epicenters. These TEC anomalies can be found in all three earthquakes regardless the geomagnetic conditions. The features of these anomalies have something in common and may have differences from those caused by geomagnetic storms. Our results suggest that these ionospheric TEC perturbations may be precursors of the large earthquakes.     

Probing the method of correcting Faraday rotation in vector magnetograms

By analyzing the vector magnetograms of Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS) taken at the line center (0.0 Å) and the line wing (−0.12 Å) of FeI λ5324.19 Å, we make an estimate of the measured errors in transversal azimuths (δ?) caused by Faraday rotation. Since many factors, such as the magnetic saturation and scattered light, can affect the measurement accuracy of the longitudinal magnetic field in the umbrae of sunspots, we limit our study in the region ∣B_z∣ < 800 G. The main mean azimuth rotations are about 4°, 6°, 7° and 9°, while ∣B_z∣ are in the ranges of 400–500 G, 500–600 G, 600–700 G and 700–800 G, respectively. Moreover, we find there is also an azimuth rotation of about 8° at the wavelength offset −0.12 Å of the line compared against a previous numerical simulation.     

Investigation of precursory phenomena in the ionosphere,atmosphere and groundwater before large earthquakes of M > 6.5

Precursory phenomena in the ionosphere, atmosphere and groundwater before large earthquakes (M > 6.5) are extensively investigated toward the earthquake prediction. Upward tornado type seismic clouds occurred near the epicenter associated with strong LF-VLF radio noises from lightning discharges in the evening of January 9, 1995 [Yamada, T., Oike, K. On the increase of electromagnetic noises before and after the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu earthquake. In: Hayakawa M. (Ed.), Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes. TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 417–427, 1999] and anomalous foEs increases up to 10 MHz were detected at Shigaraki, 90 km of the epicenter and at Kokubunji, 500 km east of the epicenter [Ondoh, T. Anomalous sporadic-E layers observed before M7.2 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake; Terrestrial gas emanation model. Adv. Polar Upper Atmos. Res. 17, 96–108, 2003; Ondoh, T. Anomalous sporadic-E ionization before a great earthquake, Adv. Space Research 34, 1830–1835, 2004] associated with strong ELF noises from lightning discharges in the daytime on January 15, 1995 [Hata, M., Fujii, T., Takumi, I. EM precursor of large-scale earthquakes in Japan, in: Abstracts of International Workshop on Seismo Electromagnetics (IWSE 2005), Univ. Electro-Communications, Chofu, Tokyo, Japan, March 15–17, pp. 182–186, 2005] before the M7.2 Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake of January 17, 1995. The anomalous foEs increases occurred at epicentral distances within 500 km that are the same as those of the terrestrial gas emanations along active faults before large earthquakes [King, C.-Y. Gas geochemistry applied to earthquake prediction: An overview. J. Geophys. Res. 91(B12), 12269–12281, 1986]. The anomalous foEs increases seem to be a seismic precursor because geomagnetic and solar conditions were very quiet all day on January 15,1995 and the normal foEs in Japanese winter is below 6 MHz. No significant pre-seismic geomagnetic field variation was detected at epicentral distance of 100 km before this earthquake [Ondoh, T., Hayakawa, M. Anomalous occurrence of sporadic-E layers before the Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake, M7.2 of January 17, 1995. In: Hayakawa, M. (Ed.), Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes, TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 629–639, 1999; Ondoh, T., Hayakawa, M. Seismo discharge model of anomalous sporadic E ionization before great earthquakes. In: Hayakawa, M., O.A. Molchanov, (Eds.), Seismo Electromagnetics: Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Couplings, TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 385–390, 2002; Ondoh. T., Hayakawa, M. Synthetic study of precursory phenomena of the M7.2 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. Phys. Chem. Earth 31, 378–388, 2006]. The foF2 decrease and h’F increase occurred before the M7.8 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake of July 12,1993 in a geomagnetic quiet period [Ondoh, T. Ionospheric disturbances associated with great earthquake of Hokkaido southwest coast, Japan of July 12, 1993. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors. 105, 261–269, 1998; Ondoh, T. Seismo ionospheric phenomena. Adv. Space Res. 26, 8, 1267–1272, 2000]. Characteristic phase changes at terminator times of Omega 10.2 kHz waves passing 70 km of the epicenter extended toward darker local times by 1 h for 3 days before this earthquake due to lowering of the wave reflection height or ion density increases in the D region [Hayakawa, M., Molchanov, O. A., Ondoh, T., Kawai, E. The precursory signature effect of the Kobe earthquake on VLF subionospheric signals. J. Commun. Res. La., 43, 00. 169–180, 1996]. The radon concentration in the atmosphere over Ashiya fault, Kobe [Yasuoka, Y., Shinogi, M. Anomaly in atmospheric radon concentration: a possible precursor of the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake. Health Phys. 72(5), 759–761, 1997] and in the groundwater at 17 m well in Nishinomiya, Japan [Igarashi, G., Saeki, S., Takahata, N., Sumikawa, K., Tasaki, S., Sasaki, Y., Takahashi, M., Sano, Y. Ground-water radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake in Japan. Science 269, 60–61, 1995] had gradually increased since 2 months before the M7.2 earthquake, increased suddenly in December 1994, and rapidly returned to the normal low level of October, 1994 [Yasuoka, Y., Shinogi, M. 1997. Anomaly in atmospheric radon concentration: a possible precursor of the 1995 Kobe. Japan, earthquake. Health Phys. 72(5), 759–761.]. Radon concentration changes in the groundwater before the M 7.0 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake, Japan on January 14, 1978 [Wakita, H., Nakamura, Y., Notsu, K., Noguchi, M., Asada, T. 1980. Radon anomaly: a possible precursor of the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake. Science 207, 882–883] and the M6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan on December 10, 2003 [Kuo, T., Fan, K., Chen, W., Kuochen, H., Han, Y., Wang, C., Chang, T., Lee, Y. Radon anomaly at the Antung Hot Spring before the Taiwan M6.8 Chengkung earthquake. Proceedings, Thirty-First Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, January 30–February 1, 2006, SGP-TR-179, 2006] are also investigated to find common features of the groundwater radon concentration changes before large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in comparison with those before the M7.2 Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake. Groundwater radon concentrations before the 3 large earthquakes had shown common characteristic changes of gradually initial ones from the normal level since about 2 months before the earthquake onsets, rapid decreases down to the minimum, and quick increases up to the maximum at 7–20 days before the earthquake onsets, respectively. These are very useful characteristics of pre-seismic radon anomaly for the earthquake prediction or warning. Promising observations toward the earthquake prediction are also discussed.     

Change in refractivity of the atmosphere and large variation in TEC associated with some earthquakes,observed from GPS receiver

The present study reports the analysis of GPS based TEC for our station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region in India at times close to some earthquake events (M ? 5) during the year 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. The TEC data used in the study are obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring (GISTM) system. The TEC data has been analysed corresponding to 11 earthquakes in low solar activity period and quiet geomagnetic condition. We found that, out of 11 cases of earthquakes (M > 5) there were seven cases in which enhancement in TEC occurred on earthquake day and in other four cases there was depletion in TEC on earthquake day. The variation in refractivity prior to earthquake was significant for the cases in which the epicentre lied within a distance of 600 km from the receiving station. By looking into the features on temporal enhancement and depletion of TEC a prediction was made 3–2 days prior to an earthquake (on 28 October 2009 in Bhuj – India). The paper includes a brief discussion on the method of potentially identifying an impending earthquake from ionospheric data.     

An evaluation of the IRI-2007 storm time model at low latitude stations

This paper discusses the ability of the International Reference Ionosphere IRI-2007 storm time model to predict foF2 ionospheric parameter during geomagnetic storm periods. Experimental data (based on availability) from two low latitude stations: Vanimo (geographic coordinates, 2.7 °S, 141.3 °E, magnetic coordinates, 12.3 °S, 212.50 °E) and Darwin (geographic coordinates, 12.45 °S, 130.95 °E, magnetic coordinates, 22.9 °S, 202.7 °E) during nine storms that occurred in 2000 (Rz₁₂ = 119), 2001(Rz₁₂ = 111) and 2003 (Rz₁₂ = 64) are compared with those obtained by the IRI-2007 storm model. The results obtained show that the percentage deviation between the experimental and IRI predicted foF2 values during these storm periods is as high as 100% during the main and recovery phases. Based on the values of “relative deviation module mean” (RDMM) obtained (i.e. between 0.08 and 0.60), it is observed that there is a reasonable to poor agreement between measured foF2 values and the IRI-storm model prediction values during main and recovery phases of the storms under investigation. As a result, in addition to other studies that have been carried out from different sectors, more studies are required to be carried out. This will enable IRI community to improve on the present performance of the model. In general the IRI-storm model predictions follow normal trend of the foF2 measured values but does not reproduce well the measured values.     

The variability and predictability of the IRI B0, B1 parameters over Grahamstown,South Africa

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) parameters B₀ and B₁ provide a representation of the thickness and shape, respectively, of the F2 layer of the bottomside ionosphere. These parameters can be derived from electron density profiles that are determined from vertical incidence ionograms. This paper aims to illustrate the variability of these parameters for a single mid latitude station and demonstrate the ability of the Neural Network (NN) modeling technique for developing a predictive model for these parameters. Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E) was chosen as the mid latitude station used in this study and the B₀ and B₁ parameters for an 11 year period were determined from electron density profiles recorded at that station with a University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Atmospheric Research (UMLCAR) Digisonde. A preliminary single station NN model was then developed using the Grahamstown data from 1996 to 2005 as a training database, and input parameters known to affect the behaviour of the F2 layer, such as day number, hour, solar and magnetic indices. An analysis of the diurnal, seasonal and solar variations of these parameters was undertaken for the years 2000, 2005 and 2006 using hourly monthly median values. Comparisons between the values derived from measured data and those predicted using the two available IRI-2001 methods (IRI tables and Gulyaeva, T. Progress in ionospheric informatics based on electron density profile analysis of ionograms. Adv. Space Res. 7(6), 39–48, 1987.) and the newly developed NN model are also shown in this paper. The preliminary NN model showed that it is feasible to use the NN technique to develop a prediction tool for the IRI thickness and shape parameters and first results from this model reveal that for the mid latitude location used in this study the NN model provides a more accurate prediction than the current IRI model options.